吉林省人口城镇化问题研究

吉林省是我国的农业大省,人口城镇化对吉林省的城镇化建设、经济发展具有更为重要的意义。本文利用相关统计数据对吉林省人口城镇化的现状进行研究,吉林省城镇化进程中存在城镇规模结构不合理、地区间联系弱、城镇化质量不高、产业结构不合理影响发展和城镇地域优势功能没有充分发挥等问题。结合现状、问题及影响因素,研究认为应该合理规划不同区域的人口城镇化发展模式,减少制度障碍,提高城镇化质量,通过优化产业结构来带动吉林省城镇化的发展。     

长江经济带城镇化发展水平与发展质量协调度研究

城市发展不再只是追求经济的增长,而是要实现全面协调、可持续发展。因此,发展质量型社会越来越重要。长江经济带是我国城镇化发展的重要区域,并且是我国经济新的增长极,其城镇化发展水平和发展质量的双重提升越来越重要。城镇化发展进程中,经济发展是基础、社会建设是推力、生态环境建设是保障、城乡统筹发展是动力。因此,本文主要从经济发展、社会发展、生态建设与城乡统筹四个方面构建城镇化发展质量评价指标体系,采用城镇化发展质量的分段函数评价模型,结合协调度模型对长江经济带城镇化水平与质量的协调性进行测度分析,其结果为：①城镇化发展水平与发展质量发展特征为“整体上升、局部波动”。②城镇化发展质量提升速度较为平缓,而各个省市之间城镇化发展质量提升速度具有差异性。③城镇化发展水平与发展质量协调度为稳步上升态势,其区域整体协调发展较好。     

吉林省发展县域经济推进城镇化进程的思考

随着长吉图先导区开发开放的深入进行,吉林省县域经济与城镇化发展在利好政策的注入下既面临着新的机遇也面临着诸多的挑战。如何扬长避短地利用县域经济来推进城镇化的发展成为新时期县域发展的新要求。吉林省在推进城镇化进程中的新思路是:充分利用县域经济为城镇发展提供的产业优势,以县域的外向型经济来推进城镇化、以集聚型经济升级城镇化、以城乡结合的经济来逐步实现人口城镇化,通过县域经济集群式发展将所要求的人口、资源和环境充分协调,以实现推进城镇化发展的目的。     

京津冀各市新型城镇化发展评价 ——基于京津冀协同发展的考察

在推进京津冀协同发展的背景下,城镇化建设和发展面临着人口分布不合理、 产业不协调等问题,制约着京津冀协同发展和世界级城市群的形成.为实现京津冀协同发展就需要新型城镇化,通过基于群决策的层次分析法建立测评指标体系进行系统评价,探究京津冀13市新型城镇化水平的时空分异.研究结果表明:京津冀各市新型城镇化水平空间分异明显,京津的高速增长在一定程度上挤占了河北省的资源.在协同发展背景下,京津发展高度密切,河北省各市与北京的发展步调较一致,京津冀地区的协同动力较为充足,潜力大.河北省各市的新型城镇化建设需要从产业升级、 创新和生态建设方面实现突破,也需要京津从协同发展出发来支持河北省各市实现新型城镇化发展.     

山东省人口发展与工业化城镇化的互动及其协调发展

改革开放至今,山东省的人口发展与工业化城镇化发展相互促进,共同推动了人口再生产方式的转变和工业化城镇化进程,进入了健康、合理、良性互动的发展时期。但是,人口规模持续膨胀、城镇化发展水平滞后、城镇体系结构不合理、人口分布与城镇分布矛盾等问题依然制约人口与工业化城镇化的协调发展。促进人口数量、素质、结构、分布协调发展,走新型工业化和新型城镇化道路,实现人口与工业化城镇化协调发展,是山东省不懈的追求。     

新型城镇化试点政策对人口流动的影响

优化城镇发展转型路径、实现人口合理有序流动,是促进区域协调发展、实现经济高质量增长的重要路径。文章利用中国流动人口动态监测调查数据,构建双重差分模型,系统评估新型城镇化试点政策对人口流动的影响。结果显示,新型城镇化试点政策使试点城市的流动人口规模增大了10.1%。异质性分析发现,新型城镇化试点政策促使人口向东部城市和中西部省会城市流动,且这一试点政策在财政压力较低的城市对人口流动的影响更加显著。此外,新型城镇化试点政策能显著提高流动人口的长期定居意愿与社会融入程度。据此,文章建议健全新型城镇化建设的财政支持体系,多维度推进新型城镇化高质量发展,立足于人口流动格局差异化,推动新型城镇化建设区域均衡发展,并以高质量公共服务助力流动人口在流入城市定居和融入。     

甘肃人口城镇化战略研究

甘肃人口城镇化水平低,存在城镇数量少、规模小,区域发展不平衡的问题。应通过大力发展工业、旅游业和制度创新,推动人口城镇化进程,走政府主导、利用市场加快小城镇建设,积极发展大中城市的道路。     

农村人口城镇化必须由封闭型转变为开放型

《人口学刊》1985年第二期刊登左清中的文章,题为《经济体制改革与人口城镇化》。文章说,近年来,越来越多的农民进入城镇开店设坊,兴办服务行业,承办各种劳务,参加某些城市基础设施的建设,农民不但是发展城市第三产业的重要力量,而且是建设新型小城镇的主力军。农村人口城镇化已成为我国经济起飞不可阻挡的潮流。 当前,我国人口城镇化的水平仍然很低,只及世界平均水平的一半。为了加速我国人口城镇化的进程,文章认为,对我国人口城镇化的潮流,决不能象过去那样采取封闭式的政策,而应采取开放式     

人口老龄化对城乡统筹发展的影响与对策探析

城镇化加速人口老龄化,人口老龄化影响城镇化进程。在人口老龄化和城镇化交织影响下,我国农村人口老龄化发展迅速,其老龄化水平远高于城镇,这将给我国新农村建设、农村社会保障、城乡协调发展等方面带来不同程度的冲击和挑战。应该按照城乡发展一体化要求,积极推进适应人口老龄化的新型城镇化,培育新型农业发展方式,推进以城支农的新农村建设,统筹城乡就业以改善农村老年人从事经济活动的条件。     

影响循环经济发展的人口因素分析

由于人口、资源、环境与经济发展的矛盾日益尖锐,循环经济逐渐成为世界各国发展生态经济的实践模式。本文以人口与经济发展的关系为基础,对影响循环经济发展的人口因素进行分析,指出控制人口数量,提高人口素质,优化人口结构,加快人口城市化进程,使人口发展与经济发展相适应,才能促进循环经济发展,最终实现可持续发展的目标。     

Regional differences in marital fertility in the Netherlands in the second half of the nineteenth century

Abstract In the Netherlands, as in other countries, substantial regional differences in the birth rate have always been the rule rather than the exception. Of course, differences in crude birth rates may be attributed to a number of possible reasons, not all of them of primary demographic interest. For instance, according to the census of 31st December 1899, the number of women per 1,000 men in the province of Drenthe was only 924; in the province of Zuidholland the corresponding number was 1,073. It is clear that, ceteris paribus, the crude birth rate in Zuidholland would be about 7% higher than in Drenthe at that time. In such a case, the difference could reflect differences in economic development or job opportunities, factors not devoid of demographic significance, but only indirectly so.     

Why the rise in adolescent fertility rates in the Dominican Republic in the 1990s?

Despite concern over high pregnancy rates and levels of risk for sexually transmittedinfections, adolescent fertility rates in the Dominican Republic have not changed substantially since the early 1980's, and actually increased during the early to mid 1990s. The present study was undertaken to assess the factors contributing to the recent rise in fertility among Dominican adolescents. The findings suggest that although contraceptive use among adolescents and young adults has increased, this has been more than offset by ominous trends on other determinants of fertility. Among these are declines in mean age at first sex and first marriage/union without a commensurate decline in mean age at first contraceptive use, and stubbornly high discontinuation rates for oral contraceptives andcondoms. There is also some evidence that rates of induced abortion among adolescents may have increased, without which adolescent fertility rates would have been even higher. Demand for children among Dominican adolescents remains strong, suggesting that efforts to reduce the current high prevalence of risky sexual behaviors need to influence social norms in order to be successful.     

乡-城转移人口的生育率水平问题

乡一城人口转移作为城市化过程,总体上有利于生育率下降或低生育水平的稳定。但是,由于乡一城转移人口的生育率水平具有既不同于城也有别于乡的差别特征,因此这种转移对城乡生育率的变化必然产生一定的差别效应。通常认为,乡一城转移人口的生育率水平介于城乡之间,即低于乡而高于城。但是,有关研究认为,我国乡一城迁移流动人口的生育率水平已经转变为低于城市。对此,很值得进一步深入探讨。本文首先分析我国城乡生育率的变化和区域差异,然后对乡一城转移人口的总和生育率进行尝试性的推算,最后聚焦讨论流动人口生育行为的流动性问题。     

经济较发达地区农村空巢老人的养老问题——以浙江农村为例

本文通过对现阶段浙江农村空巢家庭类型及成因的分析,比较了农村空巢家庭与传统同已婚子女一起生活老年人生活质量的差异,认为空巢老人家庭生活质量不仅低于农村人口的平均生活水平,也低于传统同子女一起生活的老人,并对如何解决农村养老问题提出了对策建议。     

Social Reporting in the 1970s and in the 1990s

In this paper I give an account of the major welfare conceptsand social reporting concepts of the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. Inconclusion I discuss possibilities and limits of social reporting today.Quality of life and qualitative growth were the welfare programs of the1970s. The next decade saw a trend to individualization, subjectivewell-being and plurality of life styles. In the last decade the qualityof society once more came into the forefront in concepts likesustainable development, human development and social capital. From thefar-reaching program of the social indicators movement socialreports are the most visible results in many countries whereas ambitiousplans like national goals accounting failed. In the 1980s we watched akind of dissolution by diffusion and in the 1990s a revival inseveral fields. Overall, the monitoring and enlightenment function stillis the most important contribution of social reporting but today on ahigher level of data, methods and international comparisons.     

Keeping the ball in the air: contact in long-distance friendships

As people continue to be more mobile, maintenance behaviors for long-distance friendships will continue to be a part of the relocation experience. In this qualitative study, 25 women age 45 and over, who had relocated a number of times, were asked to talk about how their friendships had transitioned to being long-distance relationships and what current maintenance behaviors entailed. Communication was a major theme involving electronic mail (e-mail), Christmas cards, telephone calls, and visits. Results from the current study suggest that maintaining the perception of the existence of a well-connected social support system could be accomplished with a single, annual contact. Further, the long-distance friendship biographies explored in this study provided characteristics of friendship maintenance behavior that could be grouped into three main categories forming a proposed typology of long-distance friendship maintenance.     

Keeping the Ball in the Air: Contact in Long-Distance Friendships

ABSTRACT

As people continue to be more mobile, maintenance behaviors for long-distance friendships will continue to be a part of the relocation experience. In this qualitative study, 25 women age 45 and over, who had relocated a number of times, were asked to talk about how their friendships had transitioned to being long-distance relationships and what current maintenance behaviors entailed. Communication was a major theme involving electronic mail (e-mail), Christmas cards, telephone calls, and visits. Results from the current study suggest that maintaining the perception of the existence of a well-connected social support system could be accomplished with a single, annual contact. Further, the long-distance friendship biographies explored in this study provided characteristics of friendship maintenance behavior that could be grouped into three main categories forming a proposed typology of long-distance friendship maintenance.     

关于京津沪超低生育率中外来人口分母效应的检验

本文质疑梁秋生论文中控制外来流入人口以后京津沪大城市总和生育率均高于 1 0的推算结果 ,并根据全国第五次人口普查 1‰抽样样本的京津沪育龄妇女案例进行了检验汇总。按两种不同口径的汇总结果都表明 ,京津沪户籍育龄妇女的总和生育率远远低于 1 0。     

The fall in household size and the rise of the primary individual in the United States

The long-term fall in household size in the United States is discussed within the framework of the aging of the population, continuing as the effects of fertility and mortality decline accumulate. Using distributions of households by size from U.S. census data 1790–1970 and a components of change analysis on primary individuals for 1950–1974, household changes are related to demographic change for the periods 1790–1900, 1900–1950, and 1950–1974. Fertility and mortality declines have unambiguous impact on household size until the increases in primary individuals begin. But these, too, have a theoretically interesting, if indirect relationship to population structure.     

Measuring Hope in the Philippines: Validating the Short Version of the Locus-of-Hope Scale in Filipino

A short version of the locus-of-hope Scale was developed and translated into the Filipino language for the purpose of assessing hope in Filipinos who have lower levels of education and who may not have adequate levels of proficiency in English. The 20-item scale had four locus-of-hope subscales (internal, external-family, external-peers, and external-spiritual) each with four items (another four were filler items); all items described thoughts associated with some capacity and strategy to attain important goals in life. A sample (N = 362) of adults from communities in Metro Manila were asked to answer the scale, as well as measures of optimism, self-esteem, and life satisfaction. Confirmatory factor analysis indicated an adequate fit between the hypothesized four-factor structure and the data, but the internal locus-of-hope scale was found to have low internal consistency. Regression analysis showed positive associations between the internal and external-family locus-of-hope subscales and the three measures of wellbeing. But external-peers locus-of-hope was negatively associated with optimism and self-esteem, and external-spiritual locus-of-hope was positively related with optimism.