The Neoliberal Food Regime: Neoregulation and the New Division of Labor in North America

We undertake a comparative investigation of how neoliberal restructuring characterizes the third food regime in the three North American countries. By contrasting the experience of the two developed countries of the United States and Canada with that of the developing country of Mexico, we shine some empirical light on the differential impact of neoliberal regulatory restructuring on the division of labor in agriculture within the North American Free Trade Agreement region. In particular, we investigate these countries' agricultural production markets, trade, and food vulnerability—with an emphasis on Mexico—as analytical points for comparing and contrasting their experience with this neoliberal restructuring. We start with a synthesis of food‐regime theory and outline the key features of what we call the “neoliberal food regime.” We then discuss our case‐study countries in terms of food vulnerability and resistance in Mexico, their differential relationships to trade liberalization, and what these trends might mean for the evolution of the neoliberal food regime. We conclude that, while dominant trends are ominous, there is room for an alternative trajectory and consequent reshaping of the emerging regime: sufficient bottom‐up social resistance, primarily at the level of the nation–state, may yet produce an alternative trajectory.     

COTTON IN A FREE TRADE WORLD

Trade liberalizing reform in the world cotton market would increase world cotton traded an average 2.69% over 5 yr and increase world cotton prices to an average 10.5%. A partial equilibrium model was used to estimate the effects of removing global domestic subsidies and border tariffs for cotton. Trade flows in international markets would be affected as U.S. market share of world cotton exports decline, net cotton-importing countries with minimum domestic and trade distortions import less because of higher cotton prices, and net cotton-importing countries that subsidize domestic production and/or impose border tariffs significantly increase their imports. ( JEL F17, F42, F47, O2)     

Trade openness and income inequality: New empirical evidence

We examine how trade openness influences income inequality within countries. The sample includes 139 countries over the period 1970–2014. We employ predicted openness as instrument to deal with the endogeneity of trade openness. The effect of trade openness on income inequality differs across countries. Trade openness tends to disproportionately benefit the relative income shares of the very poor, but not necessarily all poor, in emerging and developing economies. In most advanced economies, trade openness increased income inequality, an effect that is driven by outliers. Our results suggest a strong effect of trade openness on inequality in China and transition countries.     

Impact of the tariff concessions of the RCEP agreement on the structure and evolution mechanism of manufacturing trade networks

In the world’s largest free trade area, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement will gradually eliminate tariffs on over 90% of member countries’ goods over the next 36 years. We construct a tariff policy effects evaluation framework based on the complex network theory. In this framework, the standard Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model is recursively extended to generate forecasted data of bilateral trade. Based on this, we model the RCEP manufacturing trade networks and analyze the response of its core–periphery structure to the tariff concessions. Then, we evaluate policy effects on the evolution of trade patterns based on motif analysis. Finally, we construct separable temporal exponential family random graph models (STERGM) to explore the influence path and degree of the new tariff agreement on the evolutionary mechanisms of trade networks.     

Regional Trade Clusters in Promoting Eastward Enlargement of European Union

The paper aims to explore international trade flows of the countries that are involved in the EU eastward enlargement process, giving emphasis to exploring regional trade clusters and their possible role in supporting East-West (or new-old) trade integration. The empirical results of the study indicate that additionally to the traditional gravitational forces (the size of economy, level of economic development, and distance), the impact of which is expressed by the baseline gravity equation, the bilateral trade flows of the EU-25 countries are influenced by the cross-border activities, historical linkages and regional cooperation. From three regions (the Baltic Sea region, Central Europe and Mediterranean area) that consist of both earlier and newly associated EU members, the Baltic Sea region as a regional trade cluster can be clearly distinguished. This region has played a significant role in supporting the adjustment of the post-socialist countries with requirements of the EU enlargement and in establishing the relevant institutional base for joining the EU. The Baltic Sea Region is also providing valuable lessons for developing EU regional policies and predicting the possible outcomes of globalization.     

Trade and jobs in Europe: The role of mode 5 service exports

Over the past two decades, EU employment supported by extra‐EU exports of goods and services has increased markedly, with a shift towards jobs supported by services exported as part of manufactured goods. The authors seek further insight into this trend through the full decomposition of trade flows using a multi‐regional input–output model and the World Input–Output Database for 40 countries and 35 industries over the period 1995–2011. Their findings call for reflection by policy‐makers regarding the four traditional modes of service supply under the General Agreement on Trade in Services with a view to adequately capturing this new reality in global trade.     

Substitution and Stratification: The Interplay between Dyadic and Systemic Proximity in Global Trade, 1993–2005

This article examines the interplay of homophily (similarity breeds connection) at two levels in international trade—dyadic similarity (geographic, political, and cultural proximity) and systemic similarity (structural equivalence and world‐system status). First, there is a substitution effect between dyadic homophily and systemic homophily from structural equivalence. Both types of homophily generate favorable social structure that facilitates international trade. The existence of structural equivalence lessens the dependence of bilateral trade on dyadic homophily. Second, there is a stratification effect of world‐system status on dyadic homophily. Geographic homophily matters the most for bilateral trade between two noncore countries, while political and cultural homophily is the most influential for trade between a core country and a noncore country. These two findings have important implications. The substitution effect of structural equivalence prevents international trade from complete fragmentation along geographic, political, and cultural lines, while the stratification effect of world‐system status reveals unequal capacity across countries to overcome the structural constraints imposed by dyadic homophily.     

Algeria’s Trade with GAFTA Countries: A Synthetic Control Approach

Arab countries signed the Greater Arab Free Trade Area (GAFTA) agreement in 1998, while Algeria only joined in 2005. In this study, I investigate the counterfactual trade that Algeria would have had with its GAFTA trade partners had it joined the agreement in 1998. I employ synthetic control methods (SCM) in the context of the gravity approach to international trade to estimate this counterfactual outcome. The SCM creates the synthetic control unit based on a weighted average of the past characteristics and trade realizations of the countries that signed the GAFTA agreement and compares the counterfactual trade outcome against the actual outcome of the treated unit, Algeria in our case. Estimation results indicate that Algeria??s trade with nine GAFTA countries, covering more than 96?% of Algeria??s pre-treatment trade, would have improved if Algeria had signed the agreement in 1998.     

Economic Integration and Intra-industry Trade Between the European Community and the Western Balkan Countries

The aim of this paper is to examine the relation between trade liberalisation, economic integration and the intensity of intra-industry trade among three countries of different development levels in a Free trade Area context. The theoretical analysis indicates that the benefits of creating a Free Trade Area between the Western Balkan countries and the European Community (EC), following the predictions of the Association and Stabilisation Agreements will be unevenly spread between member-states of the EC and the Western Balkan countries. The second part of this paper examines the actual level of intra-industry trade between the Western Balkan countries and the EC. The level and the trend of intra-industry trade between the two Eastern Balkan countries, Romania and Bulgaria, member-states of the EC since 2007 and which reflect the provisions of Europe Agreements are also investigated.      

The determinants of heroin flows in Europe: A latent space approach

This study utilises recent advances in statistical models for social networks to identify the factors shaping heroin trafficking in relation to European countries. First, it estimates the size of the heroin flows among a network of 61 countries, before subsequently using a latent space approach to model the presence of trafficking and the amount of heroin traded between any two given countries. Many networks, such as trade networks, are intrinsically weighted, and ignoring edge weights results in a loss of relevant information. Traditionally, the gravity model has been used to predict legal trade flows, assuming conditional independence among observations. More recently, latent space position models for social networks have been used to analyze legal trade among countries, and, mutatis mutandis, can be applied to the context of illegal trade to count both edge weights and conditional dependence among observations. These models allow for a better understanding of the generative processes and potential evolution of heroin trafficking routes. This study shows that geographical and social proximity provide fertile ground for the formation of heroin flows. Opportunities are also a driver of drug flows towards countries where regulation of corruption is weak.     

The Political Economy of “Food Security” and Trade: Uneven and Combined Dependency

This article critiques the notion of food security through trade promoted by suprastate organizations like the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, the World Bank, and the World Trade Organization. We use and refine the food‐regime perspective to contest this unwritten rule of the neoliberal food regime. Rather than “mutual dependency” in food between “North” and “South,” as argued by Philip McMichael, however, we show that food dependency has been stronger on basic foods in developing countries, while advanced capitalist countries' dependency has been mostly on luxury foods. Also, the more that developing countries become dependent on food imports and exports, the more they will be importing the “world food price” for the relevant commodities. Food‐price inflation will more adversely affect their working classes, which spend larger shares of their household budgets on food. Our empirical focus is on food dependency in emerging nations—Brazil, China, India, Mexico, and Turkey—in comparison with long‐standing agricultural exporting powerhouses, the United States and Canada. Using longitudinal data from FAOSTAT, we show that food security in the neoliberal food regime can best be characterized as “uneven and combined dependency.”     

FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS AS DYNAMIC FARSIGHTED NETWORKS

In the presence of multilateral negotiations, are Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) necessary for, or will they prevent, global free trade? I answer this question using a dynamic farsighted model of network formation among asymmetric countries. Ultimately, FTAs prevent global free trade when there are two larger countries and one smaller country but FTAs can be necessary for global free trade when there are two smaller countries and one larger country. The model provides insights into the dynamics of recent real‐world negotiations and recent results in the literature on the empirical determinants of trade agreements. (JEL C71, F12, F13)     

Losing Control: Policy Space to Prevent and Mitigate Financial Crises in Trade and Investment Agreements

This article examines the extent to which measures to mitigate the current financial crisis and prevent future crises are permissible under a variety of bilateral, regional and multilateral trade and investment agreements. US trade and investment agreements, and, to a lesser extent, the World Trade Organization, leave little room to manoeuvre with capital controls, despite increasing evidence that certain controls can prevent or mitigate crises. Investment rules under the treaties of most capital‐exporting nations allow for at least the use of temporary controls as a safeguard measure. The article offers a range of policies that could be deployed to improve US investment rules.     

INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENTS ON PRODUCT STANDARDS UNDER CONSUMPTION EXTERNALITIES: NATIONAL TREATMENT VERSUS MUTUAL RECOGNITION

This paper provides a comparative analysis of product standards agreements between heterogeneous countries. A simple model of vertical standards is developed where countries have heterogeneous preferences for a negative or positive consumption externality. I compare two major types of standards agreements, those based on national treatment (NT) and mutual recognition (MR). Unlike NT, MR can induce a mismatch of standards between countries, a problem that tends to get worse as country preferences diverge. Due to this mismatch problem, NT tends to become relatively more welfare‐enhancing than MR for countries with more dissimilar preferences. These findings explain why the World Trade Organization, the Trans‐Pacific Partnership, and the European Union choose different types of standards agreements. The paper also sheds new light on the desirability of international harmonization of product standards. (JEL F13, F18, O24)     

THE IMPORTANCE OF TRADE COSTS IN DEVIATIONS FROM THE LAW‐OF‐ONE‐PRICE: ESTIMATES BASED ON THE DIRECTION OF TRADE

The full impact of trade costs in segmenting product markets cannot be captured by considering aggregate prices or in the absence of information on the direction of trade. We address this problem by utilizing product‐specific prices, cross‐sectional productivity indices, and bilateral trade flows, allowing us to identify the probable source of any one product. We show that trade costs in the form of transportation and distribution costs are important in determining international price differences and segmenting international markets. Physical distance relative to the origin has a precisely estimated positive impact on international deviations from the Law‐of‐One‐Price that is larger than estimates that do not account for the origin of each product. Based on our benchmark estimates, the price elasticity of distance was around 10% in 1990. (JEL F4)     

Quod vadis? The effect of youth unemployment and demographic pressure on migration in the MENA region

Recent trends in international migration reveal increasing migration outflows from Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries. This development is accompanied by a massive rise in youth unemployment and a major increase in the young population in this region. This paper provides a quantitative assessment of migration patterns and analyses the interacting effect of the unfavourable combination of youth unemployment and demographic pressure on migration decisions. Based on an assessment of bilateral migration flows from 19 MENA to 34 OECD countries between 1995 and 2020, we find that youth unemployment plays a significant role in explaining emigration flows from MENA countries. We also find that the migration-generating effect of youth unemployment is contingent upon demographic pressure in the youth cohorts and increases with an increasing number of youths.     

Ready Rhetorics: Political Homophobia and Activist Discourses in Malawi,Nigeria, and Uganda

Since the late 1990s political leaders in several African countries have pursued legislation to expand criminal penalties for same-sex sex. Yet, much of the research on efforts to expand criminalization of same-sex sexualities in Africa has focused on individual country cases, neglecting the role of national and transnational sociopolitical contexts and economic flows. Focusing on discourses present in news media data from 2000 to 2014 in three African countries pursuing regressive policies targeting homosexuality—Malawi, Nigeria, and Uganda—we examine: 1) the different antihomosexual discourses and constellations of actors that emerge over time; 2) the linkages among antihomosexual discourses and other social or cultural logics that allow individuals and collective actors to make sense of antihomosexual discourses in a particular historical moment; and 3) the relationships among discourses vying for power in a given discursive field. In these data we observe episodic public debates around homosexuality that engage different arguments and constellations of actors over time. The intensity of public debates has increased since the mid-2000s in each country, and debates reflect strong linkages among transnational and national actors. Ultimately, we contend that the particular debates occurring around the regulation of same-sex sex in Malawi, Nigeria, and Uganda reflect larger conflicts over social change, political power, and global status hierarchies. We conclude with implications for the study of homophobia and LGBT movements in sub-Saharan Africa.     

中国与埃及经贸关系简析

对外贸易格局反映着各国一定时期的外交理念和社会经济发展水平。上世纪70年代以来,埃及对外贸易格局以偏重与欧美发达国家的传统贸易关系为主,同时又兼顾与发展中国家之间的贸易往来。目前,在埃及对外经济交往中,埃中经贸关系呈现出强劲的发展势头,两国在经贸数量、种类、规模上都有较大的发展。深化合作、优势互补、互利双赢是解决埃及对华贸易逆差问题的主要途径,也是进一步巩固双边关系、推动经贸关系向更高水平发展的切实选择。