Book Reviews

Book reviewed in this article.
Electrical and Instrumentation Safety for Chemical Processes By Richard J. Buschart
Traffic Safety and the Driver By Leonard Evans
Risk Assessment and Risk Management for the Chemical Process Industry Edited by Harris J. Greenberg and Joseph J. Cramer
Acceptable Evidence: Science and Values in Risk Management Environmental Ethics and Policy Series, Karen Shrader-Frechette, General Editor Edited by Deborah G. Mayo and Rachelle D. Hollander
Risk and Rationality: Philosophical Foundations for Populist Reforms By Karen S. Shrader-Frechette
Multiple Perspectives on Risk and Regulation: The Case of Deliberate Release of Genetically Engineered Organisms into the Environment By Smita K. Siddhanti
Geraghty and Miller's Groundwater Bibliography Edited by Frits van der Leeden
Comparative Dosimetry of Radon in Mines and Homes Panel of Dosimetric Assumptions Affecting the Application of Radon Risk Estimates, Board on Radiation Effects Research, Commission on Life Sciences, National Research Council
Prevention and Control of Accidental Releases of Hazardous Gases Edited by Vasilis M. Fthenakis     

在弹性需求和物品易变质条件下数量折扣定价模型

研究在弹性需求和易变质物品条件下,当供应商和零售商独自决策时,供应商如何确定最优数量折扣问题。基于Stackelberg博奕建立了数学模型,证明了零售商的出售价格随供应商出售价格的降低而降低,从而需求量增大。当供应商给予价格折扣时,零售商的利润是增加的。在此基础上,给出了最优数量折扣的计算方法。对供应商和零售商单独决策时,供应商利用数量折扣对供应链进行协调产生的系统利润与供应商和零售商联合决策时的系统利润做了数值分析和比较。结果表明,供应商采用数量折扣的方法使供应链协调是有效的;价格折扣随价格敏感系数的增大而增大,随变质率的增大而减小。     

What Risks Are People Concerned About

An unusual questionnaire was used to explore what risks concern laypeople. It asked respondents to list, in their own words, as many risks of personal concern as they could. They then selected the five risks of greatest concern and answered a set of specific questions about each. A coding scheme was developed for categorizing these responses and was shown to have good reliability. The questionnaire was administered to a heterogeneous convenience sample of subjects. They reported a very broad range of risks of concern, which differed in plausible ways as a function of their gender and age. Females and student-age subjects were generally more concerned about the environment, whereas males and older subjects were more likely to mention health and safety risks. Both the extent of the risk-reduction actions that they reported and their expressed willingness to pay for future risk reductions were greater for risk that presented a direct personal threat (e.g., health risks) than for risks that posed a diffuse threat to the environment or to people in general (e.g., pollution). Respondents perceived themselves as bearing primary responsibility for managing threats to their own health, but generally saw government as bearing a heavier responsibility for managing environmental risks (especially for pollutants) and war. The questionnaire instrument and coding structure developed for this work are well-suited to a variety of future research applications. They provide a way to identify the risks that concern lay groups, as well as to track the evolution of those concerns over time.     

Effects of Context and Feelings on Perceptions of Genetically Modified Food

Recently, there has been a surge of interest in the role of feelings in framing perceptions and decisions about risk, yet no study has specifically examined the impact of feelings on perceptions/judgments about biotechnology. This exploratory study investigated current perceptions of genetically modified (GM) food to examine (1) the effects of context (making judgments about GM food at the same time as rating other current areas of concern), and (2) the effect of feelings of dread (integral affect) and background feelings of stress (negative incidental affect) on risk judgments about GM food. An established psychometric method (semantic differential task) used with a sample of 126 adults (recruited "topic-blind," mostly from a student population) showed that, when rated in the context of other current concerns such as human cloning and Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD), there was less concern about GM food than might have been anticipated. Participants were recruited "topic-blind" in order to ensure that they were unaware that the focus of the research was on GM food specifically (and thus preventing biased recruitment to the study). Relative to 19 other current concerns GM food was "not dreaded," not viewed as "unethical," was judged as "controllable," and was seen as the least "risky" of all the issues studied. GM food was viewed as a "hot topic," a new risk, and as relatively unnatural (although it was not the highest rated concern on this scale). Ratings of risks across concerns by individuals experiencing high levels of negative incidental affect (stress) did not differ significantly from those reporting low stress.     

Evaluating the Temporal Location of Feedback: Providing Feedback Following Performance vs. Prior to Performance

In order to make feedback as effective as possible, it is important to understand its function in the three-term contingency (TTC) and the impact of various factors involved in delivering feedback. Timing of feedback is one factor that can affect the impact of feedback on learner’s behavior. An analysis of timing of feeback may help us getting closer to better understanding how feedback functions in the TTC. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effects of feedback at different temporal locations. Specifically, feedback was provided either immediately (a) after a teaching session or (b) before the following teaching session, on teaching performance of undergraduate psychology students. The results indicated that feedback provided before the teaching session was more effective in improving teaching skills than feedback that was provided after the session. These findings suggest that feedback may function primarily as an antecedent to future performance and not necessarily as a consequence for past performance. However, the behavioral mechanism that explains these results is not yet clear. Future studies should investigate this further by manipulating the content of feedback prior to the teaching performance.     

Intended Message Versus Message Received in Hypothetical Physician Risk Communications: Exploring the Gap

We examined the risk perception that is derived from hypothetical physician risk communications. Subjects (n= 217) completed a questionnaire on the Web for $3. Subjects were presented with four hypothetical cancer risk scenarios that included a physician risk communication in one of three risk communication formats: verbal only, verbal plus numeric probability as a percent, and verbal plus numeric probability as a fraction. In each scenario, subjects were asked to imagine themselves as the patient described and to state their perceived personal susceptibility to the cancer (i.e., risk perception) on a 0 to 100 scale, as well as responses to other measures. Subjects' risk perceptions were highly variable, spanning nearly the entire probability scale for each scenario, and the degree of variation was only slightly less in the risk communication formats in which a numeric statement of risk was provided. Subjects were more likely to overestimate than underestimate their risk relative to the stated risk in the numeric versions, and overestimation was associated with the belief that the physician minimized the risk so they wouldn't worry, innumeracy, and worry, as well as decisions about testing for the cancer. These results demonstrate significant gaps between the intended message and the message received in physician risk communications. Implications for medical decisions, patient distress, and future research are discussed.     

Exploring the Dimensionality of Trust in Risk Regulation

This article investigates possible differential levels of trust in government regulation across five different risk contexts and the relationship between a number of concepts that might be thought of as comprising distinctive "dimensions" of trust. It appeared that how people perceive government and its policies toward risk regulation was surprisingly similar for each of the five risk cases. A principal-component analysis showed that the various trust items could best be described by two dimensions: a general trust dimension, which was concerned with a wide range of trust-relevant aspects, such as competence, care, fairness, and openness, and a scepticism component that reflects a sceptical view regarding how risk policies are brought about and enacted. Again, the results were surprisingly similar across the five risk cases, as the same solution was found in each of the different samples. It was also examined whether value similarity has an additional value in predicting trust in risk regulation, compared to the more conventional aspects of trust. Based on the two independent trust factors that were found in this study, a typology of trust is proposed that ranges from full trust to a deep type of distrust. It is argued that for a functioning society it could well be more suitable to have critical but involved citizens in many situations.     

Application of the Precautionary Principle by Senior Policy Officials: Results of a Canadian Survey

Though use of the controversial precautionary principle in risk management has increasingly been recommended as a guide for the construction of public policy in Canada and elsewhere, there are few data available characterizing its use in risk management by senior public policymakers. Using established survey methodology we sought to investigate the perceptions and terms of application of the precautionary principle in this important subset of individuals. A total of 240 surveys were sent out to seven departments or agencies in the Canadian government. The overall survey response rate was 26.6%, and our findings need to be interpreted in the context of possible responder bias. Of respondents, the overwhelming majority perceived the precautionary principle and the management of risk as complementary, and endorsed a role for the precautionary principle as a general guideline for all risk management decisions. However, 25% of respondents responded that the lack of clarity of the definition of the principle was a limitation to its effective use. The majority of respondents viewed their own level of understanding of the precautionary principle as moderate. Risk managers appeared to favor an interpretation of the precautionary principle that was based on the seriousness and irreversibility of the threat of damage, and did not endorse as strongly the need for cost effectiveness in the measures taken as a precaution against such threats. In contrast with its perceived role as a general guideline, the application of the precautionary principle by respondents was highly variable, with >60% of respondents reporting using the precautionary principle in one-quarter or less of all risk management decisions. Several factors influenced whether the precautionary principle was applied with the perceived seriousness of the threat being considered the most influential factor. The overwhelming majority of risk managers felt that "preponderance of evidence" was the level of evidence required for precautionary action to be instituted against a serious negative event. Overall, the majority of respondents viewed the precautionary principle as having a significant and positive impact on risk management decisions. Importantly, respondents endorsed a net result of more good than harm to society when the precautionary principle was applied to the management of risk.     

The Role of Similarity Cues in the Development of Trustin Sources of Information About GM Food

In evaluating complex new technologies, people are usually dependent on information provided by others, for example, experts or journalists, and have to determine whether they can trust these information sources. This article focuses on similarity as the basis for trust. The first experiment ( N  = 261) confirmed that a journalist writing about genetically modified (GM) food was trusted more when his attitude was congruent with that of his readers. In addition, the experiment showed that this effect was mediated by the perceived similarity of the journalist. The second experiment ( N  = 172) revealed that trust in a journalist writing about the focal domain of GM food was even influenced by him expressing a congruent attitude in an unrelated domain. This result supports a general similarity account of the congruence effect on trust, as opposed to a confirmatory bias account.     

Animation in User Interfaces Designed for Decision Support Systems: The Effects of Image Abstraction,Transition, and Interactivity on Decision Quality*

This paper develops the idea of animation in user interfaces designed for decision support systems (DSS), proposes a framework to investigate the efficacy of animation in these interfaces, and reports on a study that examined the effects of properties of animation specified by the framework. Based on a review of selected background literature, principal properties affecting the efficacy of animation in user interfaces designed for DSS are identified and the effects on decision quality of three of these properties are hypothesized. To evaluate these hypotheses, data was collected in a laboratory experiment involving two different tasks. The results for both tasks indicate that animation in user interfaces designed for DSS should employ parallel as opposed to sequential navigation interactivity techniques. The decision quality of subjects that used a parallel navigation technique was significantly greater than that of those that used a sequential navigation interactivity technique. The results regarding the efficacy of image abstraction and transition effects varied by task. For one task, decision quality was significantly greater for subjects that used realistic as opposed to abstract images, but decision quality did not vary by transition effect. For the other task, decision quality was significantly greater for subjects that used gradual as compared to abrupt transition, but image abstraction had no effect on decision quality.     

The development of global IT infrastructure

A research model of the impact of a multinational corporations’ (MNC) global strategic orientation on global IT infrastructure was developed using global integration, or the degree to which a global strategy is actually implemented, as a mediator. A “matched pair” survey of 94 MNCs was conducted (two respondents per firm) in order to guard against common source bias. The results showed that the firms that pursue a globally oriented strategy actually enacted these strategies as indicated by a wide-variety of resource flows across national units. The role of the level of global integration as a mediator between global strategic orientation and global IT capabilities was empirically demonstrated. This confirms that a global strategy is not sufficient to ensure that an enabling IT infrastructure will be developed; rather it is the actual level of integration and interdependence that is achieved as a result of the strategy that drives IT infrastructure. The primary areas in which global integration was found to be closely linked to the global IT infrastructure were human resources, which significantly influenced the reach, range, support services and planning of the global IT infrastructure, and information resources which significantly influenced the planning dimension of the infrastructure. These results strongly suggest that the transfer of people among national units creates an information needs “pull” which leads to the development of better IT infrastructure and that the “push” of standardized information also contributes positively.     

The Effects of Presenting Imprecise Probabilities in Intelligence Forecasts

How to assess and present analytic uncertainty to policymakers has emerged as an important topic in risk and policy analysis. Due to the complexity and deep uncertainty present in many forecasting domains, these reports are often fraught with analytic uncertainty. In three studies, we explore the effect of presenting probability assessments and analytic uncertainty through probability ranges. Participants were presented with mock intelligence forecasts that include narrative evidence as well as numerical probability assessments. Participants were sensitive to the ambiguity communicated through the confidence range. The narrative appeared to have a smaller effect on judgments when accompanied by a probability range as opposed to a point assessment. In one study, participants also thought that the probability range was more useful for decision making at a higher probability whereas the point estimate was more useful at a lower probability. When evaluating a forecast in hindsight, decisionmakers tended to report lower levels of blame and higher levels of source credibility for forecasts that reported ranges as compared to point assessments. These findings suggest that decisionmakers are not necessarily “ambiguity averse” in the forecasting context. Presenting ranges of probability may have distinct advantages as a way to communicate probability and analytic confidence to decisionmakers.     

How displaying empathic concern may differentially predict career derailment potential for women and men leaders in Australia

Past research notes the importance of emotions in the workplace. Much less is known about the role that empathic concern, an affect-laden construct, plays in predicting a leader's career advancement using measures of one's upward mobility, such as career derailment potential. Data provided by practicing managers in Australia show that leaders who displayed behaviors that convey empathic concern receive lower ratings of career derailment potential. We also found that gender was a statistically significant moderator of these relationships. With boss rating of derailment potential as the outcome, the negative relationship between empathic concern and derailment potential was statistically significant for women only. With peer ratings of derailment potential as the outcome, the negative relationship between empathic concern and derailment potential was stronger for women than men. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.     

Personality and Leadership Developmental Levels as predictors of leader performance

This study is an empirical investigation of constructive-developmental theory as a theoretical framework for understanding leadership and as a predictor of 360-degree leader performance ratings. Constructive-developmental stage (conceptualized as Leadership Developmental Level) was found to predict performance ratings from all rater sources (superiors, peers, and subordinates). Furthermore, the predictive ability of Leadership Developmental Level is compared to that of Big Five personality dimensions in a model of 360-degree leader performance ratings. Leadership Developmental Level was found to account for a unique component of the variance in leader performance as rated by peers and subordinates, even above and beyond that which can be accounted for by personality.     

Marketing/Finance Executives Personal and Business Value Perspectives: Implications for Market-Focused Management

The concept of Market-Focused Management posits that the ultimate goal of the organization is the satisfaction of custumers' needs. In doing so other objectives of the firm, including financial objectives such as increasing shareholder wealth and long term profitability, will be achieved. The chief marketing and financial officers of the Fortune 1000 firms were surveyed regarding their personal values and a variety of organizational values relating to company stakeholders, organizational goals, appropriate strategies and tactics, competitive strengths and advantages. While both groups exhibited some differences, there was a startling amount of consensus in all areas surveyed. Both groups ranked shareholders and customers as the two most important stakeholders. While the overall goal of customer satisfaction was ranked by both groups as the most important organizational goal, the means to achieving that end differ somewhat. While a large number of organizational values were related to personal value strength, there was little overlap in the relationships between the two groups, although both groups are overwhelmingly driven by other-focused values such as warm relationships with others, sense of belonging and being well respected. Thus, it was concluded that similar personal values lead marketing and financial managers to substantially different attitudinal schema in their approach to managing their responsibilites. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

An investigation of company product decision making

This article is concerned with an investigation of the approaches taken by companies in making product decisions. The first part is concerned with a review of the range of product decisions as presented within the literature. This range is established within the context of corporate planning, with a major split between long term strategic planning product decisions, and short term operational planning product decisions. The second part of the article is concerned with the results of a survey that was designed to investigate the criteria that companies use within their product decision making. These criteria included those applicable to strategic planning, but also incorporated a range of criteria applicable to short term operational planning, as proposed in a recent article by Greenley [8]. The overall conclusion to the survey results was that a common and universal approach to product decision making cannot be identified within this sample of companies. A low level of agreement as to the relative degree of importance of the criteria was evident, and, little attention to differentiating product decisions with time was also evident. The results also challenge the importance given by the literature to the concepts of product life cycle, portfolio analysis and synergy. Finally, the author suggests two implications as a consequence of these results.     

Comparisons of Performance and Job Insecurity in Union and Nonunion Sites of a Manufacturing Company

Layoffs and employment changes caused by current economic conditions have significant effects on employee work behavior and emotions as well as organizational outcomes. We examined the relationships between measures of job insecurity, organizational commitment, turnover, absenteeism, and worker performance within a manufacturer in Chapter 11 bankruptcy. A positive relationship was found between job insecurity and intentions to turnover, and a small negative correlation was found between measures of job insecurity and organizational commitment. Unobtrusive observations of union and nonunion performance over 4 months showed that nonunion production workers were on-task more frequently, although on-task behavior was high for both. Productivity and quality measures of different factories favored nonunion locations. Although comparisons between sites were constrained by a quasi-experimental design, repeated behavioral and outcome measures within sites showed differential effects when the company announced a plant closing in another state. Job insecurity appeared to be an establishing operation that produced differential effects between union and nonunion sites as well as among individual employees within sites.     

基于工期协调的项目公司与承包商收益激励模型

从项目公司和承包商双层角度,考虑项目公司通过显性收益激励契约手段与单一标段承包商之间就工期目标优化问题进行协调决策.假设决策过程是一个完全信息的动态博弈过程,基于博弈论并应用二层规划方法建立了以项目公司为主方、承包商为从方的Stackelberg主从递阶收益激励模型,采用逆向归纳法并引入拉格朗日函数对问题进行分情形讨论,设计了遗传算法求解该非线性规划问题的子博弈精练纳什均衡解.算例结果表明,项目公司通过提供一定的收益激励而非传统指令性手段促使承包商在可压缩范围内积极主动地去压缩项目工期,可以实现项目工期控制目标协调优化和双方收益目标的帕累托改善.     

Media,Risk, and Absence of Blame for “Acts of God”: Attenuation of the European Volcanic Ash Cloud of 2010

This article analyzes the character, extent, and patterns of media coverage of the 2010 volcanic ash cloud, comparing it with coverage of other major natural hazards, such as Deepwater Horizon. It does so drawing upon sociological themes and concludes that the ash cloud was reported largely in its own terms rather than being amplified as a wider, uncertain threat. As well as the absence of major incident and casualties two interrelated factors are highlighted to explain this result. Emphasizing the importance of hazard duration, the unexpected arrival and short‐lived character of the ash cloud was one important factor that limited the potential for sustained media amplification. More broadly, this was an “act of God” with no clear responsible agents. This preliminary study suggests that contemporary media risk narrative requires a focus for institutional blame attribution, and without a plausible candidate amplification may not acquire momentum.