Childcare Cash Benefits and Fertility Timing in Norway

In 1998 a new cash benefit for parents with young children was introduced in Norway. Its purpose was to provide a cash payment to parents who either preferred to care for their children at home or to compensate those who were not offered external childcare provision. It has been argued that the new policy encouraged women to stay at home with their children, possibly reducing labour supply. The policy was consequently considered gender-biased, creating reduced incentives for women to participate in the labour market and therefore encouraging a more traditional division of labour of husbands and wives. Given this background of the policy, we undertake an analysis in two parts. We ask first the question “who takes the cash benefit?” Second, by applying simple matching techniques, we ask the question “Do couples taking the benefit behave differently in terms of their fertility timing?” Using information from Norwegian registers we find that more traditional households (in a broad sense) are more likely to take the cash benefit. Those taking the benefit accelerate childbearing significantly, though the reasons why they do so varies by socio-economic groups.     

Family Policies and Fertility in Norway

We address the relationship between family policies and fertility in Norway, including three somewhat different policies: parental leave, formal childcare, and the childcare cash benefit. We use administrative register data covering the period 1995–2004. Norwegian family policies are designed both to improve reconciliation of work and family and to improve childcare choices for parents. The analysis shows different patterns of work–family reconciliation and fertility choices among one-child couples and two-child couples. The parental leave policy is the most influential of the three policies on second-birth intensities, especially if parental leave is also taken by the father. The introduction of the childcare cash benefit is most influential on third-birth intensities. This means that policies that promote paternal involvement in childcare and gender equality are positively associated with second births, while policies giving more general family support are positively associated with third births.     

Deferment of the First Birth and Fluctuating Fertility in Sweden

In Sweden, as in other industrialized countries, a decades-old decline in fertility rates has been accompanied by a rise in the age at first birth. In contrast to other industrialized countries, however, fertility rates rose sharply in the 1980s before plummeting in the 1990s. In this paper we apply hazard regression to data from the 1992 Swedish Family Survey, supplemented by annual earnings data linked to individuals and by annual time series of national-level economic indicators, to investigate the predictors of the timing of the first birth of women in Sweden since the mid-1960s. The discovery that both individual characteristics and aggregate-level factors influence the timing of the first birth casts light on both the continuing trend of postponement of the first birth and annual fluctuations in first-birth rates.     

瑞士家庭法及其对我国的启示

瑞士家庭法律制度比较完备、系统,其具体的法律规定和所体现的法律理念有许多先进、积极的地方,其中包含着许多科学合理的成分,确实有许多值得中国借鉴之处。     

Attitudes, Norms and Perceived Behavioural Control: Explaining Fertility Intentions in Bulgaria

In this article, we study fertility decision-making through timing parity-progression intentions. The theoretical framework builds on Ajzen’s social-psychological “Theory of Planned Behavior”: intentions are seen as directly dependent on three components: attitudes, norms and perceived behavioural control. We study the case of Bulgaria, a “lowest-low” fertility country. In 2002, a sample survey containing a specially designed module was conducted. This module included an implementation of our framework, with a special attention to the links between normative pressure and the social network of respondents. Results show that the three components are broadly predictive of fertility intentions. More specifically, attitudes are more relevant than norms for higher parities. Socio-economic, ideational, psychological and social capital-based factors are relevant background determinants.     

生育意愿对家庭住房负债的影响

近年来,我国居民住房贷款规模快速扩张。家庭负债的不断上升不仅会降低居民(消费)福利水平,还可能引发系统性金融风险。基于CFPS2018年调查问卷,实证检验了家庭生育意愿对家庭住房负债的影响及其作用机制。研究发现,生育意愿显著影响了家庭住房负债水平。意愿生育男孩数量越多,家庭住房负债水平越高,而意愿生育女孩数量与家庭住房负债不相关。这种差异主要是由“传宗接代”等传统文化观念所导致,意愿生育男孩数量越多的家庭,会配置价值越高的住房资产,进而导致家庭住房负债水平上升。生育意愿主要提升了家庭消费性住房资产配置,此时民间借贷成为主要借款渠道。意愿生育男孩数量对家庭住房负债的正向影响在不同收入和资产水平的家庭中并无显著差异,但在小孩抚养比较高和户主健康状况较好的家庭中更加显著。上述结论表明,政府部门应进一步加强男女平等宣传,提高女性家庭地位和社会地位,同时从法律层面对女性进行保护,在就业、收入等方面消除性别歧视,提高女性社会经济地位,抑制家庭住房负债非理性上升。     

The Impact of Family Policies on Fertility Trends in Developed Countries

We examine how strongly fertility trends respond to family policies in OECD countries. In the light of the recent fertility rebound observed in several OECD countries, we empirically test the impact of different family policy instruments on fertility, using macro panel data from 18 OECD countries that spans the years 1982–2007. Our results confirm that each instrument of the family policy package (paid leave, childcare services and financial transfers) has a positive influence on average, suggesting that the combination of these forms of support for working parents during their children’s early years is likely to facilitate parents’ choice to have children. Policy levers do not all have the same weight, however: in-cash benefits covering childhood after the year of childbirth and the provision of childcare services for children under age three have a larger potential influence on fertility than leave entitlements and benefits granted around childbirth. Moreover, we find that the influence of each policy measure varies across different family policy contexts. Our findings are robust after controlling for birth postponement, endogeneity, time-lagged fertility reactions and for different aspects of national contexts, such as female labour market participation, unemployment, labour market protection and the proportion of children born out of marriage.     

计划生育家庭结构对二孩生育意愿影响研究 ——以重庆市为例

本文利用重庆市2017年育龄妇女生育意愿抽样调查数据,采用二元Logistic回归模型对人口计生家庭结构特征对二孩生育意愿的影响进行了回归分析。研究发现：（1）育龄夫妇为“双独”“独子非独女”与“独女非独子”对二孩生育意愿影响显著且回归系数为正;（2）已有子女数对二孩生育意愿影响显著且回归系数为负;（3）已有子女性别对于二孩生育意愿影响显著且回归系数为负。文章认为有效提高二孩生育对于宏观经济社会可持续发展具有战略意义,从供给和需求层面做好二孩生育的综合配套政策,做到二孩生育及其后期相关成本在不同层面之间得到合理分摊。     

The Decline of Fertility in Malta: The Role of Family Planning

This paper examines the role that family planning played in the decline of fertility in Malta. In 1993 the authors carried out a survey of family planning, similar to one carried out by one the authors in 1971. The analysis of these two surveys suggests that the practice of family planning has not increased significantly in this period. However, there has been a sharp change in the type of method used. More specifically, there has been a shift away from traditional methods (such as coitus interruptus) to more efficient methods (such as the contraceptive pill). There are now a range of affordable methods of contraception available in Malta. Regression techniques are used to model the choice of contraceptive method. The main aim of the empirical analysis is to establish what characteristics are associated with the use of efficient methods of contraception.     

妇女当家会强化低生育水平吗?——一项关于家庭权力与生育决策的实证研究

妇女地位的提升对降低生育率有着重要作用。在低生育水平的湖北宜昌农村地区,数据分析表明,家庭权力在生育决策中产生重要影响,男性的生育观念更为传统,男性主导家庭权力可以提高家庭的生育意愿,而女性拥有越来越自主的生育决策权力以及更理性的、以核心家庭幸福为准则的生育观,但在这部分地区,没有证据显示妇女当家会直接降低生育率。因此,在妇女家庭权力日渐提升的趋势下,为防范极低生育水平、提升农村家庭的发展能力、为妇女生育提供良好的家庭支持和社会支持环境尤为重要。     

政府、雇主和家庭共担生育责任的探讨

人口再生产是社会生产的必要前提,为社会经济发展做出巨大贡献,为雇主/社会提供了充足劳动力,满足了家庭情感需求和家族延续的需要,政府、社会和家庭需要共担责任。我国经历了从国家和家庭共担到雇主和家庭分担主要生育责任的过程,目前政府分担生育责任依然不足,雇主服务支持不够,家庭中男性未充分发挥作用。要确立生育的社会价值,增强政府责任,建立全面覆盖的生育保障制度,不断提高保障水平;建立平衡工作—家庭的支持体系,男性分担更多责任。     

The Impact of Labour-Force Participation on Childbearing Behaviour: Pro-Cyclical Fertility in Sweden during the 1980s and the 1990s

During the last two decades, Sweden has experienced strong fluctuations both in its economy and in its level of childbearing. A period of high employment and increasing fertility has been followed by a period of lower employment and decreasing fertility since the beginning of the 1990s. In this paper, we use register data for Swedish women in order to examine how various types of attachment to the labour market affect women's propensity to give birth at different parities. Specifically, we show what impact changes in women's employment status have had on recorded fertility trends in Sweden. We find that women who have relatively low levels of income and women who are enrolled as students generally have lower fertility than other women. We also find that a rise in the number of women with such characteristics can explain part of the decrease in fertility during the 1990s. It is evident, however, that other factors, working at the macro level, also have to be considered when one wants to explain the fluctuating fertility of Sweden. Social policy is one such factor. In sum, we find a pattern of pro-cyclical fertility, where levels of female earnings are positively related to levels of childbearing.     

Family Policy and After-Birth Employment Among New Mothers – A Comparison of Finland, Norway and Sweden

This article compares the employmentpatterns of women after first and second birthin Finland, Norway and Sweden during 1972–1992,focusing on the impact of parental leave andchildcare programs on the transitions tofull-time and part-time work. The resultsunanimously point to the great importance ofthe programs. Women who are entitled to a paidleave have a much higher overall employmententry rate during the first three yearsfollowing birth than non-eligible women.But since mothers tend to use their fullentitlement, the higher entry rates are largelyconcentrated to the period after leave expiry,except in Sweden where entitled mothers havehigher entry rates also during the leaveperiod. This is probably a result of thegreater flexibility of the Swedish program. Inall countries, leave extensions delay thereturn to work among entitled mothers andreduce their excess entry rate. Moreover, theFinnish home-care allowance system is found toreduce employment entry. On the whole, thissuggests that very long leave entitlements andchild-minding benefit programs could havenegative consequences for women's career andearnings potentials and may preserve an unequaldivision of labour in the family.     

社会性别意识在生育行为和生育观中的重构

在社会性别的视角下,主要通过对不同经济收入村民、不同文化程度村民和不同年龄村民的微观实证考察的结果,尝试性地概括影响生育行为和生育观中社会性别意识的经济、文化和社会因素,以及社会性别意识在生育行为和生育观中的重要作用。     

Understanding the Complexity of Attitudes of Low-Income Single Mothers Toward Work and Family in the Age of Welfare Reform

This article explores the ideas of low-income single mothers on certain aspects of welfare reform, namely the Marriage Promotion Act, which uses funds for the formation and maintenance of two parent families. Drawing on research with former and current welfare recipients, the author explores how the mothers felt about certain welfare reform policies while trying to understand their current work and family arrangements. Two main ideas behind welfare reform were to encourage paid work and two parent families. While the mothers acknowledged that having access to a second wage earner would help themselves and their children realize a life less complicated by monetary issues, they expressed anger and frustration at being encouraged to marry. Welfare reform dictates that families receiving assistance take personal responsibility for their low-income lives and that paid work is essential to moving a family out of poverty. The stories from the mothers interviewed for this study suggest that while they valued work and wanted to work, to combine work with being a “good mother” was difficult to accomplish. Ultimately, what these mothers suggest through their experiences is the contradiction of welfare reform—paid work does not necessarily provide independence and marriage to another wage earner also undermines independence.

Fertility Patterns Among Turkish Women in Turkey and Abroad: The Effects of International Mobility,Migrant Generation,and Family Background

In this paper, we examine the fertility behavior of Turkish women in Europe from a context-of-origin perspective. Women with different migration biographies (first-generation, 1.5-generation, second-generation migrants, and return migrants) are compared with “stayer” women from the same regions of origin in Turkey. This approach provides us with new insights into the study of the effects of international migrations. First-, second-, and third-birth transitions are analyzed using data from the 2000 Families Study, which was conducted in 2010 and 2011 in Turkey and in western Europe. The classical hypotheses of disruption, interrelated events, adaptation, socialization, and selectivity/composition are developed with reference to the context-of-origin perspective. To account for socialization and family-related composition effects, we also look at family characteristics. Our findings provide no support for the disruption hypothesis, but suggest that the first-generation migrant women have higher first-birth risks than the stayers. However, this gap can be fully explained by differences in marriage duration. Differences in composition—namely in educational attainment—account for our finding that the second migrant generation has lower first-birth transition rates than the women in Turkey. Except for the number of siblings, the family influence, including the processes of intergenerational transmission, is minor and hardly accounts for the migrant–stayer differences in birth transitions. Most remarkably, the analyses show that the second- and third-birth risks of almost all of the migrant groups are higher than those of the women in Turkey, when individual and family factors are held constant; which suggests that there is a fertility crossover between the origin and the destination contexts.     

Estimating the Reciprocal Effect of Gender Role Attitudes and Family Formation: A Log-linear Path Model with Latent Variables

Gender role attitudes andfamily formation are related in a dynamicprocess. In this paper both substantive as wellas methodological issues are raised. At thesubstantive level we demonstrate that attitudesinfluence family formation in terms ofcommitment to particular states. Emancipatorygender roles increase the likelihood of singleliving or cohabitation. Remaining in thatparticular situation for at least two yearsimplies that these women further develop theiremancipatory attitudes. `Traditional' forms offamily living, such as being married or being amother, are related to traditional familyvalues. At the methodological level, it isobvious that only panel data allow broachingthe issue. We propose a log-linear path modelwith latent variables that allows takingmeasurement error into account. The designitself resembles a non-equivalent control groupdesign.     

生育文化、生育制度与生育率——兼论三孩生育政策及其配套支持措施的可能效果

随着中国少子老龄化程度的不断加深,如何促使生育率回升至适度水平成为政府和学界重点关注的议题,其中以三孩生育政策及其配套支持措施为代表的鼓励型生育制度和以“多子多福”为核心的传统生育文化被寄予厚望,希望借此帮助中国摆脱“低生育率陷阱”。然而,研究发现：中华文化圈国家或地区的生育率远低于其他国家与地区,而海外华人则是所在国生育率最低的族群之一,传统生育文化在现代社会已然发生了嬗变,对促使低生育率回升的作用已十分有限,取而代之的是“晚婚晚育少生优生甚至不婚不育”的现代生育文化,并形塑起一种内生性的低生育率机制。与此同时,欧洲和东亚国家通过构建鼓励型生育制度后依然深陷低生育率陷阱,无法有效刺激低生育率回升至适度水平。中国三孩生育政策及其配套支持措施的预期效果同样不容乐观,而生育文化、生育制度和生育率之间存在着十分复杂的互构关系,亟需从结构性和内生性的“文化—制度”视角去重新审视我国生育率转变的形成机制。     

宋代家训与宋代文学家庭

在中国封建社会中的各个朝代中, 宋代的文学家庭可说是最多的。宋代文学家庭繁荣的原因之一,就是宋代的家训很发达,宋人非常重视对子女后代的教育。     

Religion and Fertility in Contemporary Northern Ireland

Northern Ireland has been and continues to be deeply divided on the basis of religion. This paper examines and compares contemporary fertility in the two communities given the sharp declines that have occurred in recent decades. The data are drawn from the Northern Ireland Longitudinal Study and cover 108,000 women aged 16–44 in the period 1997–2007. A logit analysis of births in the period is undertaken based on individual demographic data and also the characteristics of the locality in which the woman is resident. The effect of religion is measured by its individual marginal effect averaged over the total sample, over time and by the age of the woman. The estimated average marginal effect is 4 % of the probability of a woman having a birth over the entire period. The effect peaks when the woman is between 29 and 30 years and is stable over time. When the fertility behaviour of each religious group is compared separately with those women that came from the same background but had lost their religion, it is found to differ substantially. Thus, community background is rejected as a possible explanation of the difference in fertility between declared Catholics and Protestants. Although the fertility rates of former Catholics and Protestants appear to be converging, the size of these groups is relatively small. There is no evidence to suggest that the small but distinct difference in the fertility rates of the two religious communities is likely to change in the immediate future.