Determinants of savings and remittances: empirical evidence from immigrants to Germany

This paper investigates the determinants of migrants’ financial transfers to their home country using German data. A double-hurdle model is applied to analyze the determinants of the propensity to send transfers to the country of origin and the amount of transfers. The findings reveal that return intentions positively affect financial transfers of immigrants to their home country. The results of a decomposition analysis suggest that only a small part of the gap in financial transfers between temporary and permanent migrants can be attributed to differences in observable characteristics.     

Non-minimization of source taxes on labor income: empirical evidence from Germany

The present paper analyzes the choice of tax classes by married couples under the German withholding tax on wage income. Making use of micro data from official tax returns for the year 1998 and conducting simulation analysis, it is shown that more than 20 percent of the observed households do not choose the tax class combination that minimizes withholding. In the second part of the paper, several explanations for this result are discussed. Among those explanations, transaction costs and Pareto-inefficient intrahousehold-decision-making are the most likely.     

Skilling and deskilling: technological change in classical economic theory and its empirical evidence

This article reviews and brings together two literatures: classical political economists’ views on the skilling or deskilling nature of technological change in England, during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries when they wrote, are compared with the empirical evidence about the skill effects of technological change that emerges from studies of economic historians. In both literatures, we look at both the skill impacts of technological change and at the “inducement mechanisms” that are envisaged for the introduction of new technologies. Adam Smith and Karl Marx both regarded the deskilling of the labour force as the predominant form of biased technical change, but other authors such as Charles Babbage also took account of capital-skill complementarities and skill-enhancing effects of technological change. For Smith, the deskilling bias was an unintended by-product of the increasing division of labour, which in his view “naturally” led to ever more simplification of workers’ tasks. As opposed to Smith, Marx considered unskilled-biased technical change as a bourgeois weapon in the class struggle for impairing the workers’ bargaining position. Studies of economic historians lend support to Marx’s hypothesis about the inducement mechanisms for the introduction of unskilled-biased innovations, but have produced no clear-cut empirical evidence for a deskilling tendency of eighteenth- and nineteenth-century technological change as a whole. Industrialization in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries rather led to labour polarization, by simultaneously deskilling a large part of the workforce and raising the demand for some (but fewer) high-skilled workers.     

Cultural evolution and economic growth: a theoretical hypothesis with some empirical evidence

This paper begins with a review of the literature on culture and development and finds that a “questionable” controversy divides the field: on one side are supporters of the ‘achievement motivation’, while on the other side are supporters of the ‘trust syndrome’, both in search of the ultimate attitude promoting economic development.This controversy is analysed through the lens of a broader conceptual framework, and a solution is proposed to settle the debate. The theoretical hypothesis asserts that economic culture, as any other aspect of culture, passes through stages of development. In the early stages, economic culture dwells on the problem of wealth distribution and, only later, does it focus on the core question of its growth. Using empirical data extracted from the World Values Survey Archives, we verify that during this latter stage both achievement motivation and trust syndrome are needed to promote economic growth.     

Caring for an aging society: cohort values and eldercare services

Understanding the impact of cohort values is important in trying to project future aging service needs. The cultural characteristics of cohorts yet to reach the age of 65 are compared with those already "old," with specific focus on the Baby Boomers. Aging policies (and available services) reflect the cultural notions of age and aging held as normative during the historical era in which they are enacted. Previous research into lifestyle preferences, consumer practices, and key characteristics is drawn upon to investigate the values of Baby Boomers in light of their projected needs for eldercare services. Cohort research and generational marketing practices offer a promising foundation for exploring how best to develop, target, and deliver aging services that most effectively utilize our social resources.     

The social costs and benefits of gambling: an introduction to the economic issues

This paper surveys the range of economic issues that need to be addressed in attempting to evaluate the social costs and benefits of gambling. It considers, inter alia, the nature of private and social costs and benefits and their policy significance, the important distinction between real and pecuniary costs, the incidence of gambling costs and benefits and the sources of gambling costs and benefits. Similarities and differences between the analysis of gambling and alcohol are considered. The paper concludes with a consideration of why various estimates of the social costs of gambling have produced such divergent results.     

How to measure and proxy permanent income: evidence from Germany and the U.S.

Permanent income (PI) is an enduring concept in the social sciences and is highly relevant to the study of inequality. Nevertheless, there has been insufficient progress in measuring PI. We calculate a novel measure of PI with the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) and U.S. Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID). Advancing beyond prior approaches, we define PI as the logged average of 20+ years of post-tax and post-transfer (“post-fisc”) real equivalized household income. We then assess how well various household- and individual-based measures of economic resources proxy PI. In both datasets, post-fisc household income is the best proxy. One random year of post-fisc household income explains about half of the variation in PI, and 2–5 years explain the vast majority of the variation. One year of post-fisc HH income even predicts PI better than 20+ years of individual labor market earnings or long-term net worth. By contrast, earnings, wealth, occupation, and class are weaker and less cross-nationally reliable proxies for PI. We also present strategies for proxying PI when HH post-fisc income data are unavailable, and show how post-fisc HH income proxies PI over the life cycle. In sum, we develop a novel approach to PI, systematically assess proxies for PI, and inform the measurement of economic resources more generally.     

Walking the tightrope: developing a systems approach to balance safety and mobility for an aging society

In an aging population, safety and mobility are often viewed as being in conflict, when in fact they are two values that must be reflected equally in transportation policy. The challenge for policy makers and for society is to emphasize and optimize both. To achieve this, a comprehensive systems approach to driver health, personal decision-making and planning, community and transportation systems construction, vehicle design, and licensing regulations is needed. Such an approach requires crafting policies based on conceptualizing the issue as a continuum of resources facilitating safety and mobility regardless of driving status. The discussion that follows reviews components of the issue and suggestions for developing a comprehensive approach.     

Pre-commitment in gambling: a review of the empirical evidence

Norway, a Canadian province and Australia have introduced, or are considering introducing, voluntary or mandatory pre-commitment systems for electronic gaming machines. This paper critically reviews the empirical literature evaluating the effectiveness of such systems as a responsible gambling strategy. A literature search identified 17 relevant peer- and non-peer-reviewed publications. Self-report data suggests the majority of gamblers are positively predisposed to the concept of pre-commitment but non-problem and low-risk gamblers regard the system as personally unnecessary. Overall, studies reported variable findings relating to adherence to money limits and expenditure. Few gamblers appear to use options to set time limits. Methodological flaws such as low participation rates, compromised data integrity resulting from card sharing and failure to control for concurrent gambling outside trials limit conclusions drawn regarding the effectiveness of pre-commitment. It is recommended that further systematic trials should be implemented to determine the impact of pre-commitment systems on gamblers' behaviour.     

Inequality and the time structure of earnings: evidence from Germany

This paper studies the relationships between annual and subannual inequality and mobility during the course of the year. We apply an exact decomposition framework as outlined in Wodon and Yitzhaki (Econ Bull 4:1–8, 2003), and in Yitzhaki and Wodon (Research on Economic Inequality 12:179–199, 2004). Earnings records of pension insurants in Germany serve as the database. The long time horizon of our database allows us to investigate the stability and robustness of the parameters of the decomposition over time. Specifically, we show that the mobility component of the decomposition, as measured by Gini correlation coefficients, changes over the observation period. This makes it difficult to predict the impact of the income accounting period on inequality in a more general context. Thus, it is of paramount importance to use income data from a uniform accounting period in distributional analyses.     

How the size of a coalition affects its chances to influence an election

Since voting rules are prototypes for many aggregation procedures, they also illuminate problems faced by economics and decision sciences. In this paper we are trying to answer the question: How large should a coalition be to have a chance to influence an election? We answer this question for all scoring rules and multistage elimination rules, under the Impartial Anonymous Culture assumption. We show that, when the number of participating agents n tends to infinity, the ratio of voting situations that can be influenced by a coalition of k voters to all voting situations is no greater than $D_{m} \frac{k}{n}Since voting rules are prototypes for many aggregation procedures, they also illuminate problems faced by economics and decision sciences. In this paper we are trying to answer the question: How large should a coalition be to have a chance to influence an election? We answer this question for all scoring rules and multistage elimination rules, under the Impartial Anonymous Culture assumption. We show that, when the number of participating agents n tends to infinity, the ratio of voting situations that can be influenced by a coalition of k voters to all voting situations is no greater than , where D _m is a constant which depends only on the number m of alternatives but not on k and n. Recent results on individual manipulability in three alternative elections show that this estimate is exact for k=1 and m=3.

Arkadii SlinkoEmail:

     

Manpower export and economic development: evidence from the Philippines

The Philippines has actively pursued a policy of labor export with the expectation that it would relieve unemployment, augment the supply of skills, and relieve pressure on the balance of payments. It was also anticipated that the inflow of overseas workers' remittances would translate into increased investment, the sine qua non for economic development. However, recent evidence casts some doubt on the extent to which these goals have been achieved. Particularly in the areas of skill formation, there appears to be a significant discrepancy between anticipated and actual outcomes. Indeed, it appears that the labor export may reduce the supply of skills available since 1) many skilled and educated workers are taking jobs requiring skill levels lower than they possess, and 2) a large majority of returning workers do not want to take up employment in those occupations reliant on the skills they used abroad. There is conflicting evidence regarding the impact of labor export on Philippine industries. There is some anecdotal evidence that a few industries have suffered because of a loss of key workers. In general, however, it appears that unemployment is still quite significant in those occupations most heavily represented in labor export. Despite this observation, it may still be true that labor emigration is selective of only the best workers, implying a decline in quality of the work force and possibly productivity in certain industries. The export of professional, technical, and managerial workers is another issue. Unless it can be shown that these workers are in excess supply, it is not advisable to expand the number going abroad. Although their salaries may be higher, and hence their remittances greater, their loss can impose costs on indigenous industries well in excess of a any marginal gains. Remittances from overseas workers do constitute a relatively significant source of foreign exchange. However, the translation of remittances into investment has been restrained by the very low propensity of remittance recipients and returnees to undertake productive investment and by the diversion of remittances from formal banking channels into informal channels. Remittances which are being channeled through the formal banking sector constitute a potentially important source of loan funds, as well as providing a potential stimulus to indigenous industry.     

The economic costs of childhood poverty in the United States

This paper attempts to estimate the aggregate annual costs of child poverty to the US economy. It begins with a review of rigorous research studies that estimate the statistical association between children growing up in poverty and their earnings, propensity to commit crime, and quality of health later in life. We also review estimates of the costs that crime and poor health impose on the economy. Then we aggregate all of these average costs per poor child across the total number of children growing up in poverty in the United States to obtain our estimate of the aggregate costs of the conditions associated with childhood poverty to the US economy. Our results suggest that these costs total about $500 billion per year, or the equivalent of nearly 4% of gross domestic product (GDP). More specifically, we estimate that childhood poverty each year: (1) reduces productivity and economic output by an amount equal to 1.3% of GDP, (2) raises the costs of crime by 1.3% of GDP, and (3) raises health expenditures and reduces the value of health by 1.2% of GDP.     

Ladders and lifting: How gender affects safety behaviors in the fire service

This research explores the degree to which gender affects safety behaviors and outcomes in the fire service. Semistructured focus groups and interviews were conducted based on findings from the literature on women and gender in the fire service. Four focus groups (N?=?22) and eight interviews were recorded, transcribed, and coded using NVivo 10 software. This methodology explored if female gender improves safety behaviors through (1) weighing the risks and benefits of dangerous situations, (2) focusing on biomechanics and technique, (3) asking for help, (4) being motivated to report injuries, (5) being heard by colleagues, and (6) illuminating a hostile work environment’s contribution to safety. Participants report that women have less of a “tough guy” attitude than their male colleagues and felt that deviating from the modernist American hyper-masculine norm may have a positive impact on their work practices and injury outcomes. If women in the fire service perceive risk differently than their male colleagues, perhaps strengthening efforts to recruit women and creating a culture that values their perspective will improve the occupation’s overall safety outcomes. Further research is necessary to quantify these gender differences and their relationship to safety outcomes.     

Second modernity as a research agenda: theoretical and empirical explorations in the 'meta-change' of modern society

In this article we are reformulating the theory of reflexive modernization as an empirical research programme and summarize some of the most recent findings which have been produced by a research consortium in Munich (integrating four universities, funded by the German Research Society (DFG)). On this basis we reject the idea that Western societies at the beginning of the twenty-first century move from the modern to the post-modern. We argue that there has been no clear break with the basic principles of modernity but rather a transformation of basic institutions of modernity such as the nation-state and the nuclear family. We would suggest, therefore, that what we are witnessing is a second modernity. Finally, we reform the theory of reflexive modernization in reaction to three uttered objections.     

The communication industry in economic integration: The case of West Germany

National economies can be viewed as networks of interdependent relations among the firms, industries and sectors that make up the total economic system. Within this economic system. The communication industry plays a central role by providing message and media products and services, i.e. the linking and coordinating infrastructure.Some limited research has been conducted on the nature and importance of the communication industry in the total economic network of a nation. The study reported here, however, represents the first application of currently existing network analysis techniques to this problem on a large-scale basis. The data used for this study represent the interorganizational relationships among 365 West German firms, with a 1970-based stock value of $333,000 or more. Interorganizational linkages are a function of (1) direction of ownership, and (2) magnitude of ownership (percentage of stock owned weighted by the value of the owned firm).The data analysis reveals that there are a number of dominating industrial groups, including a communication industry. The inter-firm relationships of the communication industry have been mapped and measured. The analysis demonstrates that there is relatively little dominance in and widespread integration with other major economic clusters of the economy. These findings are considered as being preliminary since only publically reported data were available, i.e. privately controlled firms are not included in the analysis. A number of measures for connectedness and integrativeness are presented that suggest themselves in addition to the technique of network analysis per se as potential alternative measures. Media scholars as well as economists may want to utilize network analysis as a method to study various forms of economic concentration and ownership in national industries.     

The effect of particularism on corruption: Theory and empirical evidence

This paper investigates the role played by the cultural norm of particularism, as opposed to universalism, for collusive bribery. In our theoretical framework, the act of proposing or demanding a bribe violates a commonly held social norm, thus producing a psychological cost. By lowering this psychological cost, particularism increases the probability of offering or asking for a bribe. We test the predictions of the model by using individual-level data for 25 countries from the European Social Survey. Consistent with the theory, particularism is found to have a positive causal effect on the probability of offering a bribe. Overall, our findings indicate that policies aimed at favoring universalism may provide an effective tool to reduce corruption.