影响我国环境污染的人口因素研究——基于省际面板数据的实证分析

文章基于我国大陆地区31个省、市、自治区2003 ～2011年的面板数据,对人口规模、人口老龄化、城镇化等人口结构性因素与以二氧化硫、生活污水、工业废水、工业废气及工业固体废弃物为衡量指标的环境污染之间的数量关系进行实证分析.结果表明,人口规模对环境污染的影响并不是显著的正向作用,随着人口总量的增长并不一定造成环境污染的加剧;而人口老龄化对环境污染指标的影响具有倒U形的特点,在人口老龄化的初期会促进各污染物的排放,而随着老龄化的进一步深化,则会显著抑制排污量;城镇化对环境污染的影响则有明显的滞后性,上一年度的城镇化率指标会造成下一年度的排污量变化,这种影响具有U形的特征,具体来看,在城镇化的初期由于规模效应会使得各污染物的人均排放有所减少,随着城镇化的发展,排污量会相应有所增加,但增加的幅度小于前期减少的程度.     

A tentative discussion on population control in Hangzhou and direction of its development]

Hangzhou is a city noted for its scenic beauty. In recent years, developments in industrial and agricultural production, cultural and educational improvements, and various constructions have made Hangzhou a more modernized city, and its population growth has become more rapid. According to one estimate, the number of childbearing women in 1987 will increase by 61% over the 1978 figure. With the mechanic (mobility) growth rate being higher than the natural growth rate, a large population is moving into Hangzhou each year, and the problem of overpopulation is becoming increasingly serious. The supply of newly built residences cannot match the demand, and the living standard is declining. Cultural and educational establishments, health care, and public facilities are unable to catch up with the speed of the population growth. Problems such as unemployment, traffic congestion, and environmental pollution are becoming more serious. In order to cope with the overall situation, the natural growth rate of the urban population should be controlled, and every married couple should be urged to have only 1 child. Satellite cities should be established and developed to match the city's economic development. Another necessary step is the redistribution of existing factories and industries inside the city and of the city's population so as to reduce pollution and noise. The increased labor population should receive better care in order to increase their productivity. Work in gardening and services should be encouraged in order to ease the pressure of unemployment and increase the tourist income.     

Environmental Pollution and Control: A Case Study of Delhi Mega City

The present paper is an attempt to examine the trend in the level of environmental pollution in Delhi and measures taken to control it. The data have been analyzed from various secondary sources of data. The analysis reveals that rapid population growth continues to be a matter of concern as it has manifold effects, one of the most important being environmental pollution. Densely populated and rapidly growing Delhi mega city is often entombed in a pall of pollution from vehicles, sewage and liquid wastes generated by human settlement and uncontrolled pollution from industries. The recent pollution control measures taken by central government reduced the environmental pollution up to some extent.     

Population control and environment protection]

Although many factors cause environmental pollution and damage, the most important and basic factor is a rapidly increasing population. Therefore, a balanced development of population and environment is essential. The pressure a rapidly increasing populaton exerts on the environment has many aspects. The pressure of population on land resources results in increased land use and increased insecticide use due to increased insect tolerance leading to decreased productivity of cultivated land, increased desert formation, and decreased food supply. Population pressure on forest resources leads to land erosion; one of the major causes of the 1981 flood in Sichuan was attributed to excessive logging activities. Demand for fuels (firewood, straws, animal manures) by an increasing population leads to decrease in natural fertilizers, decreased food production, and energy shortage in rural areas. Population pressure on cities leads to air, water, noise and other environmental pollution as well as decrease in housing facilities and in green vegetation. Problems resulting from population pressures on industrial development include industrial and environmental pollution and unemployment. Population increases and accompanying industrial activities affect the weather which in turn affects the quality of agriculture, forests, and lakes. Thus, if unchecked, atmospheric carbon dioxide level would double by the middle of the next century, which would lead to increase in atmospheric temperature with disastrous consequences. Therefore, a well planned program for population control is essential for achieving decent quality of life.     

Population growth,changing agricultural practices,and environmental degradation in Zaire

This paper examines linkages between the demographic changes taking place in Zaire, particularly overall population growth and rapid urbanization, changes in agricultural practices, and related environmental degradation. Pressures to feed Zaire's rapidly increasing urban population, which fall on a rural population that has been growing relatively slowly in recent years, as well as population growth and increased population density in certain areas of the country, have resulted in changes in agricultural practices that are described in the paper. These changes in turn are leading to declining soil fertility, deforestation, and degradation of the natural resource base. Given present technology and the state of Zaire's economy, the changes in agricultural practices that have emerged in response to population growth, increased population density, and growth in demand for food production do not appear to be sustainable in the long run.     

Population growth, age structure, and environmental impact

We develop and use a simulation model that considers sustainability on several levels by calculating production, consumption, investment, population growth/change, and environmental pollution less environmental quality upgrading investment. Our model allows us to consider population's impact on per capita consumption as well as the social interdependencies among populations, per capita consumption, and technology. Under certain population growth scenarios we find some countries ultimately consume less pollution, and less pollution is consumed on a system-wide basis. We arrive at this apparently counterintutive result because: (1) we explicitly model the decision to invest in environmental quality upgrading; and (2) we consider the impact of population age structure on investment, not only the impact of total population and population growth on total consumption.     

An outline of study on China's population / environment issues

Attention is given to population and growth and the impact on the environment and resources in China. Policies for managing the environment and instituting population education are also addressed. The first position paper of the National Environmental Protection Agency (NEPAC) on June 2, 1990 is summarized. The population of China was 1.11 billion in 1989. The rate of growth in 1988 was 14.2/1000 in 1988. 91% live in the southeast on 43% of the land. Land area is 9.6 million square miles. 65% can be made arable, and 14% is cultivated. China has 7% of the world's arable land and 20% of the world's population. Population growth has reduced arable land/captia. The impact on forests has been deforestation. 13% of land is currently forested, and timber reserves encompass 9.14 billion cubic meters, or 9 cubic meters/person. The demand for firewood and timber will increase. The impact on grasslands has been overgrazing and desertification at a current rate of 1560 square kilometer/year. The impact on energy resources is a greater demand for coal which will increase and thus increase pollution of the environment. The impact on water resources is greater demand and increased pollution. Water resources are 2700 cubic meters/person or less than the world average. 26.8 billion tons of waste water were industrially discharged out of 36.8 billion tons. 436 of the 532 rivers are polluted. The impact on the environment is a decreased standard of living. NEPAC reported that air pollution was slightly reduced in 4% of the cities in 1988, increased in 4%, and stable in the remaining cities. Water quality improved through the lowering of industrial waste water discharges, but 72% of river segments are still above the standards. Each major river system is discussed. Noise increased, and industrial solid wastes increased. Forest reserve is 9.141 billion cubic meters; the man-made forest has increased. The loss of grasslands is .13 million hectares/year. Cultivated land is 95.72 million hectares, but 100,000 hectares/year are damaged by natural disasters and 6 million are polluted by industrial wastes. 606 nature preserves have been established. In 1989, a complete legal system of environmental protection was established and investment increased.     

Lost in the ozone: Population growth and ozone in California

Demographers usually study population and environment in preindustrial settings where “environment” means food, forest, or land. California, in contrast, is an advanced industrial state with rapid population growth and complex environmental stresses. In this paper I examine the effects of population growth on carbon monoxide (CO) and ozone, the principal ingredient of smog. Ozone and CO are monitored at numerous local sites throughout California. Wind currents are strong, so the level of ozone or CO at a site may depend on population size and other factors upwind as well as at that site. I use longitudinal data for a sample of sites to estimate panel models of trends in ozone and CO. Population growth is measured at three levels: site, county, and upwind; and trends in per capita income and air pollution regulations are controlled. Local population growth has a substantial impact on CO; in contrast, population growth at any level has a very small or even negative impact on ozone. The methodological and policy implications of this implausible finding are discussed. This paper was accepted under the editorship of Virginia Deane Abernethy.     

人力资本积累下的技术进步对能源消耗型产业经济增长的影响

可持续的经济增长受到技术、资本、能源、环境等诸多要素投入的影响。本文构建并刻画了基于能源与环境约束的能源消耗型产业在考虑人力资本积累(涉及到原始能源的二次开发利用和产业污染物的治理)的技术进步影响下,实现其产业的稳态经济增长路径,并尝试分析了技术进步形成的污染治理和能源回收再利用对产业经济增长的影响。     

The environmental problems in urban communities and the protection of the environment in Korea

Korea's urban environmental problems, specifically air and water pollution, government environmental policies, and the role of nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) in protecting the environment are described and discussed. Korea's rapid industrialization and urbanization between 1961 and 1985 led to an increased volume of waste and air pollution. Automobiles increased in number from 29,234 in 1961 to 1,113,430 in 1985. In the same period, the number of factories with at least five employees rose from 15,204 to 44,037. The volume of chemical materials and agricultural chemicals dramatically increased. Household wastes in urban areas increased from 26,831 tons per day in 1978 to 61,072 tons per day in 1985. Industrial waste rose from 13,130 to 33,349 tons per day in 1985. Respiratory diseases are precipitated by exposure to sulphur dioxide, which is produced during cooking and heating with coal briquets; to nitrogen dioxide from automobile exhaust; and to carbon monoxide from coal briquets. Indoor air pollution from particles such as radon, asbestos, cigarette smoke, fungus, and bacteria also impacts on health. Tolerance limits have been reached or surpassed in many cities, particularly in Seoul. Air pollution is worse during the winter. The poor are particularly affected because of the continued use of coal briquets for heating. Industry contributes to water pollution. The volume of industrial waste water quadrupled between 1980 and 1990. In Seoul, however, population size directly contributes to 64.3% of water pollution, and the remaining 35.2% is from factories. Although livestock contributes to only 0.5% of water pollution, livestock drainage contributes to 36.3% of chemical materials in polluted water. Biological oxygen demand has also exceeded tolerance limits. Water reservoirs contain toxic chemicals such as lead, copper, mercury, arsenic, phenol, phosphorus, and nitrogen, which take a longer time to affect health. The Anti-Pollution Law of 1963 and the Environmental Protection Law of 1977 were adopted, but public participation was problematic, and funding for assessment was limited. NGOs have been active in environmental programs since democratization in 1987.     

二战后日本人口城市化及城市问题研究

二战后,伴随着工业化的发展,日本开始了快速的集中型人口城市化。在经济高速增长时期,大都市圈、政令指定都市、地方性核心市等城市聚集了很多人口。如此快速的人口城市化也带来了很多问题。诸如城市的“过密”与“过疏”问题、城市环境污染问题等。日本积极采取措施,并取得了一定的成效。日本的这些成功经验对我国解决人口城市化过程中产生的问题具有借鉴意义。     

Trade, population growth, and the environment in developing countries

We examine pollution in a developing country where fertility is endogenous and wealth increases welfare through status. When the country has defective environmental laws, it has a comparative advantage in capital-intensive “dirty” goods. Gains from trade due to trade liberalization then increase income and boost population growth. With strong incentives to save, they also stimulate investment, which hampers population growth. Because population growth crowds out labor supply, production of capital-intensive dirty goods first increases and then decreases. This yields a typical environmental Kuznets path: pollution increases at the earlier stages but decreases at the later stages of development.     

国际生产分工、环境规治与中国工业污染：--基于联立方程模型GMM估计方法的经验研究

基于环境政策内生模型，建立联立方程模型，应用GMM估算方法，以二氧化硫排放量作为环境指标，就国际分工、环境规治对我国工业污染的影响进行了实证研究。研究结果表明国际生产分工有助于清洁生产技术在我国的推广使用，从而技术效应对于减少二氧化硫的排放量有积极作用。同时，国际生产分工使得我国产业结构陷入低端过度制造业的陷阱，从而促进了我国二氧化硫排放量的增加。我国环境管理机构采取的税收政策和污染治理措施，都有助于我国二氧化硫排放量的减少，由于排污费过低，未能有效增加排污成本，使得污染治理效应高于环境税收效应。因此，促进产业服务业化，提高在国际生产分工地位，加强排污税收力度，是减少我国工业污染的关键。     

Generation carryover of a fraction of population members as an animal adaptation to unstable environmental conditions

A heterogeneous life cycle of individuals in a population was examined on its adaptive significance to an unstable environmental condition. The trend of population growth was simulated by a simple mathematical model in which a part of population in a certain generation was carried over to the next generation without participating in the reproduction. With the increase of the rate of carryover of individuals to the next generation the population fluctuation tended to be stabilized. A minute fraction of population is carried over, the effect is very large to prevent the population decline at a sequence of adverse environmental conditions. The population level increased greatly depending upon the extent of environmental change as far as the rate of carryover took an intermediate value. The optimum proportion of members to be carried over to the next generation was determined by the extent of environmental change and its frequency of occurrence.     

Population and the energy problem

When energy is scarce or expensive, people can suffer material deprivation and economic hardship. When it is obtained in ways that fail to minimize environmental and political costs, these too can threaten human wellbeing in fundamental and pervasive ways. The energy problem today combines these syndromes: much of the world's population has too little energy to meet basic human needs; the monetary costs of energy are rising nearly everywhere; the environmental impacts of energy supply are growing and already dominant contributors to local, regional, and global environmental problems (including air pollution, water pollution, ocean pollution, and climate change); and the sociopolitical risks of energy supply (above all the danger of conflict over oil and the links between nuclear energy and nuclear weapons) are growing too. This predicament has many causes, but predominant among them are the nearly 20-fold increase in world energy use since 1850 and the cumulative depletion of the most convenient oil and gas deposits that this growth has entailed, resulting in increasing resort to costlier and/or environmentally more disruptive energy sources. The growth of world population in this period was responsible for 52% of the energy growth, while growth in per capita energy use was responsible for 48% (excluding causal connections between population and energy use per capita). In the United States in the same period, population growth accounted for 66% of the 36-fold increase in energy use. In the late 1980s, population growth was still accounting for a third of energy growth both in the United States and worldwide. Coping with global energy problems will require greatly increased investment in improving the efficiency of energy enduse and in reducing the environmental impacts of contemporary energy technologies, and it will require financing a transition over the next several decades to a set of more sustainable (but probably also more expensive) energy sources. The difficulty of implementing these measures will be greatest by far in the developing countries, not least because of their high rates of population growth and the attendant extra pressures on economic and managerial resources. If efficiency improvements permit delivering the high standard of living to which the world aspires based on a per capita rate of energy use as low as 3 kilowatts—about a quarter of the current U.S. figure—then a world population stabilized at 10 billion people would be using energy at a rate of 30 terawatts, and a population of 14 billion would imply 42 terawatts (compare 13.2 terawatts in 1990). Delivering even the lower figure at tolerable monetary and environmental costs will be difficult; each additional billion people added to the world population will compound these difficulties and increase energy's costs, making everyone poorer.Presented at the Symposium on Population and Scarcity: The Forgotten Dimensions.     

广西经济增长与环境质量演进的实证研究

环境污染问题是经济发展过程中的一个重要问题,在对经济与环境分析的基础上,对广西环境质量与经济增长的环境库营涅茨曲线（EKC）假说进行实证分析研究。通过对1986-2006年广西人均GDP与工业污染排放指标的关系分析。说明广西目前的EKC轨迹并不明显,面临着巨大的环境压力。因此,广西需加强对环境的规制和治理．以求得经济与环境的协调发展。     

Changes in Population,Affluence, and Environmental Pressures During Industrialization: The Case of Austria 1830–1995

This paper relates changes in aggregate population, affluence (measured as GDP), and indicators for environmental pressures, the latter being based upon the socioeconomic metabolism concept, for Austria from 1830 to 1995. During this period of time Austria underwent a transition from a predominantly agricultural mode of substistence to an industrial economy. The Austrian population increased by a factor of 2.3, total GDP by a factor of 28.2 and per capita GDP by a factor of 12.2. Environmental indicators change by factors of between 0.85 and over 1000. In general we find that although efficiencies (environmental pressure per unit of GDP) increased dramatically, total environmental pressures increased considerably for most indicators, except for those that are related to an agricultural mode of subsistence. Our results indicate that environmental policies that aim to reduce the environmental pressure per unit of GDP (i.e., increase ecological efficiency) are not likely to be sufficient for sustainable development because efficiency gains are more than compensated for by increases in affluence. Instead, sustainability policy should focus on reducing total environmental pressures.     

汉城城市发展的人口轨迹及对上海的启示

上海核心城区人口密度是世界第一位,由此带来交通拥挤、环境污染、能源短缺等一系列问题,成为阻碍上海经济发展的巨大瓶颈。汉城与上海同是亚洲城市,在自然资源、经济发展历程和产业结构方面都非常相似。从上个世纪60年代开始,汉城经历了经济的高速增长,其人口也随之迅猛上升,上海面临的经济瓶颈也正是汉城曾经或者现在正面临的问题。本文深入研究了汉城政府在面临相似经济增长瓶颈时,为抑制人口增长所采取的各种手段,包括迁都、限制中心地区工业发展、建造新城等,对其政策动机和效果进行相应的分析评价,并比较分析了汉城人口与经济增长之间的相关关系,借鉴其经验教训来解决上海中心城区拥挤问题,认为适当减少上海中心城区人口会有利于上海经济的发展,并在此基础上制定合理的城市发展策略,以实现上海的持续健康稳定发展。     

Generation carryover of a fraction of population members as an animal adaptation to unstable environmental conditions

Summary A heterogeneous life cycle of individuals in a population was examined on its adaptive significance to an unstable environmental condition. The trend of population growth was simulated by a simple mathematical model in which a part of population in a certain generation was carried over to the next generation without participating in the reproduction. With the increase of the rate of carryover of individuals to the next generation the population fluctuation tended to be stabilized. A minute fraction of population is carried over, the effect is very large to prevent the population decline at a sequence of adverse environmental conditions. The population level increased greatly depending upon the extent of environmental change as far as the rate of carryover took an intermediate value. The optimum proportion of members to be carried over to the next generation was determined by the extent of environmental change and its frequency of occurrence. Contribution from the Entomological Laboratory, College of Agriculture, Kyoto University, No. 451.     

The population situation in Africa]

The population growth rate in Africa has been the highest in the world since 1970--about 2.7% annually. A lower mortality rate because of better health conditions, their tradition of early marriage and polygamy, and the predominantly agricultural economy are the main reasons. The lack of coordination of such rapid population growth with the slow economic development and backward industrial and agricultural conditions have caused a very serious unemployment problem and inhibit increases in the living standard. The vast areas of desert and equatorial forest are sparsely inhabited. The coastline, Nile delta, and the plateaus are the most densely populated areas of the world. The abnormally developed cities cause expansion of the urban population and serious problems in employment, housing, traffic, health, and education. Many leaders of African countries have begun to realize the seriousness of the rapid population growth, and a few have begun family planning programs. Most countries have no official policies concerning population control and a few even encourage population growth.