家庭抚育模式:农村青年妇女低生育意愿的分析视角

城镇化背景下,农村青年妇女的生育意愿远低于预期,这需从农民家庭抚育模式视角解释。在一些高度城镇化的农村,抚育模式从夫妻粗放式养育转变为婆媳精细化培优。农民家庭抚育主体从夫妻变为婆媳,抚育成本变高,方式更精细。在新型抚育模式下,个体压力和代际支持压力机制共同抑制了青年妇女的生育意愿。个体压力机制表现为生育将带来核心家庭再生产压力大、女性职业发展困境、社会交往受阻与生理劳累,导致年轻媳妇不想生;代际支持压力机制表现为婆婆因抚育义务刚性化风险、自养财富积累受阻、老年夫妻感情生活牺牲以及家庭抚育地位边缘化而不愿带。这说明农民家庭在生育决策上有自己的行动逻辑,积极的生育政策应以农民家庭为单位,系统完善生育、抚育、教育、养老等公共政策。     

大学生婚恋价值取向研究

社会变迁导致人们的价值取向发生了相应变化。通过对华东地区967名在校大学生的择偶标准、性别意识和生育意愿进行调查,结果表明:大学生看重的择偶标准依次是人品、健康、快乐、和睦和关心体贴,男生比女生更在意外貌,女生比男生更重视心理需求和生活环境;大学生性别意识较为平等,女生的性别意识更加平等;大学生理想结婚年龄呈上升趋势,理想子女数量为1～2个。总的来说,择偶标准稳中有变,男女平等、晚婚与少生成为大学生的共识。大学生的婚恋价值取向既是社会转型的产物,也是理想生活与现实环境之间博弈的结果。     

农民生育成本分析：城乡比较的视角

从生育成本与收入比视角,对我国农村居民的生育成本进行分析。指出：人口迁移流动与城市化发展,使城乡生育成本出现趋同;与市民相比,农民生育成本相对较低,但收入更低,结果是农民的生育支出与收入的比值更高。因此,仅从生育绝对成本出发,得出农民因生育成本低而倾向于多生的结论值得商榷。     

青年农民精神文化建设:困境中的反思与探索展望

社会主义新农村建设很大程度上是实现从传统农业到现代农业的嬗变,培育和造就一支有文化、懂技术、会经营的新型农民队伍是关键。在青年农民成为新型农民中坚力量的今天,注重对青年农民素质的培育应该是新农村培育新型农民的首要环节。在青年农民物质文化富足的情况下,对其精神文化生活的关照已成必须。青年富有个性的特征,使得青年农民精神文化的属性更应根据时代需求和社会需要重新建构。然而反思目前青年农民精神文化建设徘徊不前的困境,纵然有青年农民自身的主观因素困扰,然更多的责任则在于政府关注不够、相关文化管理体制不健全等客观因素所致。探索青年农民精神文化建设的解决之道和未来发展方向,当是目前最紧迫的任务。     

新农村建设的优先序

农民在新农村建设的优先序问题上一般认为,生产发展与生活宽裕为首要或次要需要实现的目标.但经济发展较快的地区和年轻村民更关注生活宽裕.男性村民比女性村民更关注生产发展与管理民主.文化程度较高的农民更注重村级治理的公正、公平、公开.兼业农民与从事非农业生产的农民不如从事农业生产的农民关心乡风文明,但比后者更关注管理民主.试点村比非试点村村民更看重生活宽裕和村容整洁.在实现这些目标的具体措施方面,村民普遍认为提高农产品价格、降低生产资料价格是实现生产发展的重要措施.但对如何实现生活宽裕与村容整洁,不同地区有显著差异.为村民提供培训、提高村民科学文化素质被视为实现乡风文明最重要的措施,但因地区、性别、职业等引起的认识差异也较为显著.目前,村民对于如何实现管理民主尚没有明晰的看法.因此,进行新农村建设先采取什么措施,先实现何种目标,应该因地而异,同时要考虑不同群体的不同需求,从而使有限的资源用于满足不同农民群体最急切的需要.     

态度影响二孩生育吗?

通过计划行为理论的研究方法编制二孩生育态度问卷,在江苏省苏北地区SQ市和LY市县域内调查已育青年妇女,分析二孩生育态度对生育意愿、行为的影响。结果显示,态度项目中“生育二孩会诱发家庭矛盾”、“加重时间和精力负担”、“影响个人职业发展”的均分均低于2.6。自评家庭经济状况越好,二孩生育态度越积极（P<0.001）;学历为初中以下者生育态度明显消极（P=0.003）;全职妈妈的生育态度低于各类职员（P=0.006）。二孩生育意愿、行为与态度之间均存在非确定性因果关系（P<0.001）。政府应有针对性地开展二孩生育宣传与教育,尽快制定二孩生育配套政策,尤其是妇女就业、医疗、婴幼儿带教方面的优惠政策,切实减轻青年妇女生育二孩的各方面压力。     

地方高校大学生职业期望研究

对不同年级与专业的地方高校大学生进行测查,以考察地方高校大学生的职业期望,结果发现:地方高校大学生职业期望水平偏高,且认为最重要的因素首先是发展因素,其次是福利因素,最后是声望地位因素;不同年级与专业的地方高校大学生在声望因素上均存在显著差异,大四学生比大三学生在择业时更看重声望因素,工科与理科医科比文科与理科都看重声望因素;地方高校大学生职业期望的薪水有点过高,尤其是大一、大二年级与工科、医科专业;地方高校大学生期望的工作地点主要是北京、上海、深圳地区以及东部沿海省会或开放城市,期望的工作单位主要是学校、国家机关与国有企业。本研究结果启示,不仅需要对地方高校大学毕业生进行职业辅导,而且更应该将职业辅导贯穿在各个年级与专业,以便引导大学生形成恰当的职业期望,推动地方高校大学生更好的就业。     

营商环境对新型职业农民持续务农意愿的影响分析

基于560份河南省新型职业农民问卷调查数据,利用Logistic模型和层次分析法(AHP),通过主观与客观模型结合实证分析营商环境对新型职业农民持续务农意愿的影响.借鉴国际国内主流营商环境评价体系、已有文献和理论基础,将影响新型职业农民持续务农意愿的营商环境分为产品市场情况、政府扶持政策及基础设施情况3个维度.结果表明:拥有较乐观产品发展前景的新型职业农民更有可能选择持续务农;政府支持、金融扶持、技术指导同新型职业农民持续务农意愿具有显著正相关关系;拥有较完善的基础设施与丰裕的原材料将显著增强新型职业农民的持续务农意愿,其影响因素按照计算所得的权重值从大到小排序为基础设施、政府支持、资源丰裕度、发展前景、市场需求、金融扶持、技术指导、运输服务系统.因此,提出畅通农产品销售市场、构建精准化的农业扶持政策和加快农村现代基础设施建设等建议.     

无良丈夫欺凌弱妻致死,法院以虐待罪判刑

给孩子拜"保保",埋下家庭危机隐患1962年,张素兰出生在四川省资阳市雁江区碑记镇长河村2组的一个半工半农家庭。1985年7月,她与同村4组青年农民谭康结婚,婚后生育两男一女。     

当代青年职业价值取向变迁研究

青年是社会发展中最活跃的力量,他们的职业价值取向变化是社会政治、经济、文化发展的睛雨表。建国以来青年的职业选择及价值取向发生了较大的变化,当代青年职业价值取向的产生有着很多深层次原因,引导青年树立符合时代要求的职业价值观,做好职业选择,对他们自我价值实现意义重大。     

欧美女性非婚生育现象研究评介及启示

非婚生育是指发生在法定婚姻之外的生育行为。经济及非经济因素共同导致欧美非婚生育在黑人妇女和没有大学文凭的妇女中增加更多;与低收入未婚母亲相比,中产未婚母亲多提前为非婚生育构建了适当支持系统;非婚生育对未婚母亲及儿童福祉可能具有不利影响。鉴于我国学界对日趋普遍之非婚生育现象的忽视,希望通过回顾欧美研究成果,促进我国本土研究意识及研究进展。     

生育观念的概念逻辑模型

生育观念在逻辑上包含生育意愿、生育动机和生育需求三个层面.生育观念借助文化力传播,可形成驱动群体主导生育行为的主流生育观念,而主流生育观念具有很强的稳定性、延续性与滞后性.决定群体主流生育观念的本源力量来自经济、社会环境,能动的宣传教育与新兴生育文化建设会推动生育观念的加速转变.这些概念的内涵与逻辑关系,构成描述生育观念的概念逻辑模型.     

少数民族地区育龄妇女对生殖健康知识的了解和需求--青海省大通县育龄妇女生殖健康调查分析

通过对青海省大通县 931名育龄妇女的抽样调查 ,分析了少数民族地区汉族与少数民族育龄妇女对生殖健康知识了解的现状、知识的来源和需求 ,并针对存在的问题提出了建议     

Does Migrant Background Matter for Adolescents’ Fertility Preferences? The Latin American 1.5 Generation in Spain

This article examines the fertility preferences of Latin American adolescents of the 1.5 generation and their native peers in Spain. We compare their expected age at first birth as well as their expected family size. The fertility preferences of the 1.5 generation are likely to reflect the family values of two different socialization environments as well as the adaptation process to the childbearing norms of the host society. The analysis is based on the Chances Survey, which collected data from 2700 adolescents in secondary schools in Madrid in 2011. Results indicate that fertility timing preferences of Latin American adolescents reflect socialization influences from the society of origin, but also a quick adaptation to the childbearing norms in the host society, since their expected age at first birth is somewhat earlier than that of their Spanish peers but considerably later than that prevailing in their country of origin. The degree of social integration, measured by the number of the respondent’s best friends who were Spanish, seems more important than age at migration for diminishing the gap between Latin Americans and Spaniards. Moreover, higher educational expectations are associated with preferences for postponed entry into parenthood. With regard to family size expectations, we find no significant variation between adolescents of migrant and native origin, confirming the argument that the “two-child norm” currently prevails in both middle- and high-income countries.     

“四小”宣教形式的运用与效果

黑河市计划生育委员会为了进一步推动“婚育新风进万家”活动的深入开展 ,采用“小教员、小阵地、小展板、小活动”为形式的“四小”宣传教育活动 ,适应了新时期计划生育工作的需要 ,符合农村思想政治工作的特点 ,激发了育龄群众主动参与计划生育的内在动力 ,有效地提高了计划生育工作的整体水平     

社会经济地位、主观流动感知与育龄女性的二孩生育意愿——基于CGSS2013数据的经验研究

文章旨在通过对2013中国综合社会调查的截面数据进行回归分析,探讨育龄女性的社会经济地位、主观流动感知与其二孩生育意愿之间的关系。不同社会经济地位的育龄女性二孩生育意愿存在显著差异:受教育程度越高,二孩生育意愿越低;个人收入越高,二孩生育意愿越低;所在家庭拥有房产数量越多,育龄女性二孩生育意愿越强。不同主观流动感知的育龄女性其生育意愿之间存在显著差异:认为自己过去十年阶层上向流动的程度越高,其二孩生育意愿就越强;预期未来十年社会阶层上向流动程度越高,其二孩生育意愿就越强。     

安徽省消费需求与经济增长关系实证研究——基于2007年安徽省投入产出表

影响力系数和感应度系数是投入产出分析中的两个重要系数,利用影响力系数和感应度系数指标可以分析、比较国民经济中各部门或各行业的重要地位及其对国民经济中各行业的推动作用,从而为促进经济的发展建言献策.通过这两个系数实证分析了安徽省消费需求与经济增长的关系,结果显示:消费需求拉动第三产业总产出最显著,对第二产业的拉动次之,说...     

The Effect of Union Status at First Childbirth on Union Stability: Evidence from Eastern and Western Germany

It is often assumed that cohabitation is much less stable than marriage. If cohabitation becomes more common among parents, children may be increasingly exposed to separation. However, little is known about how the proportion of cohabiting parents relates to their separation behavior. Higher shares of childbearing within cohabitation might reduce the proportion of negatively selected couples among cohabiting parents, which could in turn improve their union stability. This study focuses on parents who were cohabiting when they had their first child. It compares their union stability within a context in which they represent the majority or the minority. The German case is well-suited to this research goal because non-marital childbearing is common in eastern Germany (60 %) but not in western Germany (27 %). The data came from the German Family Panel (pairfam), and include 1,844 married and cohabiting mothers born in 1971–1973 and 1981–1983. The empirical results suggest that the union stability of cohabiting mothers is positively related to their prevalence: survival curves showed that eastern German cohabiting mothers had a greater degree of union stability than their western German counterparts. This difference increased in the event-history model, which accounted for the particular composition of eastern German society, including the relatively low level of religious affiliation among the population. Controlling for unobserved heterogeneity did not change this result. In sum, these findings indicate that context plays an important role in the union stability of cohabiting parents.     

Didn’t Plan One but got One: Unintended and sooner-than-intended Parents in the East and the West of Europe

The realisation rates of short-term childbearing intentions are known to be consistently lower in post-socialist countries than in the rest of Europe. However, the East–West differences in the outcomes of intentions to postpone or forego (further) childbearing have not been previously examined. We employ two panel waves of the Generations and Gender Survey in six countries (three from Eastern and three from Western Europe), and, based on the short- and long-term fertility intentions expressed by respondents at the first survey wave, we classify the births occurring between two waves as intended, sooner-than-intended, or unintended. We find that in our study population of non-teenage respondents who had the same partner at both survey waves and a child between the two survey waves, between around 10% (Western European countries) and 30% (Eastern European countries) experienced an unintended or a sooner-than-intended birth. The East–West divide is largely driven by the share of unintended parents which is clearly higher in the post-socialist countries. However, the geographical pattern fades away once we control for the anticipated costs of having a child. Our study gives insight into East–West differences in attitudes to childbearing and into how they affect reproductive behaviour. It also offers methodological improvements of cross-national panel surveys designed to examine childbearing intentions that would allow for a more accurate assessment of childbearing intendedness.     

The Estimation of Fertility Effects on Happiness: Even More Difficult than Usually Acknowledged

There have been many studies of how the number of children in a family affects the parents’ or the children’s lives. One strand of this research focuses on the implications of fertility for the parents’ level of self-reported well-being or happiness. It is argued in this paper that an overall “happiness effect” is not very informative because of the presumably large variation in individuals’ perceived gains from having children. Furthermore, it is explained that such an effect would be difficult to estimate. Most importantly, the highly varying ideas about how a child will affect life quality are important for the decision about whether to have a child. Many of those who have few or no children have chosen this because they think their life will be best this way, and their happiness therefore tells us little about how happy their more fertile counterparts—who to a large extent have different views about the consequences of childbearing—would have been if they had few or no children. This estimation problem that arises when effects of a certain event (here childbearing) are heterogeneous, and the individuals who experience that event tend to be among those for whom the effects are particularly positive or negative, is acknowledged in the treatment effect literature. However, there is little consciousness about it in the fertility–happiness research. In addition, there is a more “standard” selection problem: factors with implications for childbearing desires, or for the chance of fulfilling these, may also affect or be linked to happiness for other reasons. Unfortunately, even the most advanced statistical approaches that have been used in this research area fail to handle all these problems, so reported results should be interpreted very cautiously.