Promoting Transparency of Long-Term Environmental Decisions: The Hanford Decision Mapping System Pilot Project

Nuclear waste cleanup is a challenging and complex problem that requires both scientific analysis and dialogue among a variety of stakeholders. This article describes an effort to develop an online information system that supports this analytic-deliberative dialogue by integrating cleanup information for the Hanford Site, and making it more "transparent." A framework for understanding and evaluating transparency guided system development. Working directly with stakeholders, we identified information needs and developed new ways to organize and present the information so that it would be more transparent to interested parties, with the ultimate aim of fostering greater participation in decision dialogues and processes. The complexity of the information needed for dialogue suggested that several types of communication devices ("information structures") were warranted. Five information structures were developed for the pilot Decision Mapping System (http://nalu.geog.washington.edu/dms). Decision maps hyperlinked decision information to maps of Hanford. Background Information provided context in a narrative format. Decision Paths organized decision process information on a timeline and provided direct hyperlinks to online documentation. The Geographic Library hyperlinked decision documents to maps. Finally, a Discussion Forum allowed users to make comments and view remarks from others. Early lessons from this work suggest that transparency is integral to long-term management, a participatory design process contributed greatly to its perceived success, and better data integration to support decision making is needed. This work has broad implications for risk communicators and risk managers because it speaks to the design of information systems to support "analytic-deliberative" decision processes (i.e., those that rely upon both risk science and public dialogue).     

基于不确定条件下的供应商参与协同设计决策分析

以供应商参与协同设计所承担任务比例,作为其参与程度的定量指标,考虑研发不确定性,从供应商角度出发寻求其最适合的参与程度。研究结果表明,对于供应商而言,其参与受双方相对边际利润和开发能力,以及新产品市场不确定性的限制。供应商参与分担制造商部分设计任务有一个最适当的比例,该比例与其自身边际利润及技术开发能力正相关,与制造商边际利润以及技术开发能力负相关,与产品市场成功概率负相关。     

Decision Making in Cross‐Functional Teams: The Role of Decision Power*

Through a series of game‐theoretical models, this study systematically examines decision making in cross‐functional teams. It provides a framework for the design of an organization‐specific decision‐making process and for the alignment of a team's microdecision with the “optimal” decision that maximizes the firm's payoff. This study finds that even without changing the team leader, firms could change and even dictate the team's microdecision outcome via adjusting the team member's seniority, empowering team members with veto power or involving a supervisor as a threat to overrule the team decision. This finding implies that to reposition products in the marketplace, structuring cross‐functional teams’ microdecision‐making processes is essential.     

基于熵理论的建设项目参与者多目标协同群决策模型

建设项目参与者之间的协同决策是项目参与者协同管理的本质要求。目前,在建设过程中还存在工作效率低、超预算、超工期、安全事故时有发生等弊病,这些弊病的产生和建设项目参与者之间的缺乏合作、信任和有效的信息有密切关系。建设项目参与者协同管理的目的之一就是要协调业主、总承包商、分包商、供应商等建设项目参与者之间的决策,做到参与者的群(协同)决策,降低或消除上述弊病,提高项目建设绩效,协同决策还是避免建设项目参与者群决策的双边际效应、减少不确定性、提高决策理性的有效途径,是建设项目参与者协同管理的重要体现。本文使用熵理论中的熵权及相对熵,构建了建设项目参与者协同决策的多目标群决策模型。     

高层管理团队多样性与组织创新:外部社会网络与内部决策模式的作用

为进一步揭示高层管理团队(TMT)特征对组织创新产生的影响,引入并检验了TMT的外部网络联系和内部合作型决策这2个要素在TMT多样性与组织创新关系中的作用。研究结果表明,关注创新的组织过程的重要性,对TMT的相关研究具有重要的理论延伸,对于管理企业在复杂的环境中竞争和进行战略变革具有重要的借鉴意义。     

Micro-Political Strategies and Their Implications for Participative Decision Making

Drawing on both organizational behaviour and employee relations perspectives,the paper defines participation as `opportunity to influence decisions,' andconsiders the impact of the micro-political behaviour of organization membersin pursuit of their interests on the development of genuine participation.Three types of micro-political strategy are identified and their implicationsdiscussed: information control, flexibility, and stage-craft. The discussionis illustrated with findings from an international study of decision making,and brief comment is made on international cultural differences as acomplicating factor. It is suggested that the role of participation in enhancing the knowledge baseof the organization has been neglected. If genuine participation is to beinstituted, decision making will become more complex, requiring negotiation,not only of competing interests but also of what is to be accepted as`knowledge' in the organization. This in turn will place greater demands onthe intellectual skills and personal behaviour of participants.     

Organizational Theory and the Stages of Risk Communication

The evolution of risk communication has been described as a series of communication strategies. This article suggests that organizational theory provides another dimension to understanding the evolution of risk communication, and that risk communication can be seen as an organizational adaptation of chemical manufacturers to external pressure. Following the tragedy in Bhopal the chemical manufacturing sector's loss of legitimacy led to destabilization of its authority and to increased uncertainty in its external environment. Risk communication was one means to increase legitimacy, thereby decreasing uncertainty and potential impact on resources. However, although risk communication may evolve from crises of legitimacy, the concept of "isomorphism"--conformance to norms within a corporate sector--predicts this need not be the case.     

基于期权合约的供应链协同决策研究

本文在市场需求和价格不稳定的双重背景下,研究以风险规避为目的的供应商如何在供应链管理中运用期权合约实现利润最大化的途径问题。供应商通过在二级供应链中引入实物期权,在购买方需求不确定时可以将其引致的风险转移向供应方,而供应方的风险通过来自期权合约的额外收益在最大程度上被平衡。本文在分析考虑期权因素的决策模型中,研究市场需求以随机分布状态变化时,构建具有期权合约的最优利润最大化模型问题。数值算例验证了期权合约策略模型的可行性。本研究在一定程度上完善了供应链中期权合约的风险规避模型,为供应链企业风险管理的决策依据提供了有用的实践参考价值。     

Understanding and Reducing Inconsistency in Seatbelt‐Use Decisions: Findings from a Cardinal Decision Issue Perspective

This article has two aims. The first is to present results that partly explain why some automobile drivers choose to use their seatbelts only part time, thereby exposing themselves to unnecessary risk. The second is to offer and illustrate the “cardinal decision issue perspective”⁽¹⁾ as a tool for guiding research and development efforts that focus on complex real‐life decision behaviors that can entail wide varieties of risk, including but not limited to inconsistent seatbelt use. Each of 24 young male participants drove an instrumented vehicle equipped to record continuously seatbelt use as well as other driving data. After all trips were finished, each participant completed an interview designed to reconstruct how he made randomly selected seatbelt‐use decisions under specified conditions. The interview also examined whether and how drivers established “decision policies” regarding seatbelt use. Such policies were good predictors of inconsistent seatbelt use. Drivers who had previously adopted policies calling for consistent seatbelt use were significantly more likely than others to actually drive belted. Meta‐decisions about seatbelt policy adoption appeared to rest on factors such as whether the driver had ever been asked to consider selecting a policy. Whether a driver made an ad hoc, on‐the‐spot seatbelt‐use decision was associated with a perceived need to make such a decision. Finally, participants with full‐time policies were especially likely to deploy their seatbelts by default, without recognizing the need to decide about belt use on a trip‐by‐trip basis. We end with recommendations for reducing inconsistencies in seatbelt use in actual practice.     

公众社区参与意愿对危化品危害利益相关者感知的影响

面对危化品危害,政府及相关单位面临着日益严峻的既要保证公众知情,又要避免信息过度传播的难题,信任是导致这种沟通困境的重要因素。为解决危害信息有效沟通问题,从重构公众与政府之间信任关系的角度入手,以公众利益相关者感知衡量信任,探究公众社区参与意愿对利益相关者感知的影响关系,并将社区参与分为代表单向沟通的仪式性参与和代表双向沟通的实质性参与。研究结果表明:公众社区参与意愿有利于提升公众危化品危害利益相关者感知,特别是仪式性参与意愿的直接作用效果更为显著;实质性参与意愿和危害利益相关者感知的关系中,预决策过程起到完全中介的作用;危化品危害知识在社区参与意愿和利益相关者感知的影响关系中起到显著的正向调节作用,特别是在预决策过程与利益相关者感知的影响路径中。研究结论为构建公众和政府之间的信任关系,进而为缓解危化品危害信息沟通难题提供理论支撑和实践价值。     

The Value of Environmental Information without Control of Subsequent Decisions

The standard value of information approach of decision analysis assumes that the individual or agency that collects the information is also in control of the subsequent decisions based on the information. We refer to this situation as the “value of information with control (VOI‐C).” This paradigm leads to powerful results, for example, that the value of information cannot be negative and that it is zero, when the information cannot change subsequent decisions. In many real world situations, however, the agency collecting the information is different from the one that makes the decision on the basis of that information. For example, an environmental research group may contemplate to fund a study that can affect an environmental policy decision that is made by a regulatory organization. In this two‐agency formulation, the information‐acquiring agency has to decide, whether an investment in research is worthwhile, while not being in control of the subsequent decision. We refer to this situation as “value of information without control (VOI‐NC).” In this article, we present a framework for the VOI‐NC and illustrate it with an example of a specific problem of determining the value of a research program on the health effects of power‐frequency electromagnetic fields. We first compare the VOI‐C approach with the VOI‐NC approach. We show that the VOI‐NC can be negative, but that with high‐quality research (low probabilities of errors of type I and II) it is positive. We also demonstrate, both in the example and in more general mathematical terms, that the VOI‐NC for environmental studies breaks down into a sum of the VOI‐NC due to the possible reduction of environmental impacts and the VOI‐NC due to the reduction of policy costs, with each component being positive for low environmental impacts and high‐quality research. Interesting results include that the environmental and cost components of the VOI‐NC move in opposite directions as a function of the probability of environmental impacts and that VOI‐NC can be positive, even though the probability of environmental impacts is zero or one.     

Eliciting and Classifying Concerns: A Methodological Critique

Two methodological steps in the study of peoples'concerns are elicitation and classification. Elicitation of concerns through analytical methods such as surveys can be supplemented with techniques that perform more diversively. We present two examples of how this can be accomplished: one in the expert community and one in the lay community. A classification taxonomy is a subjective choice of the researcher and it can only be evaluated against the stated objectives of the research. We present a classification schema that is explicitly oriented toward diagnosing the substantive needs of public discourses about risk decision making. To illustrate how concerns can be elicited in a social setting and how this classification tool can be applied, we report on a public participation exercise in New Jersey where citizens discussed the impacts of land application of sewage sludge at an experimental farm.     

Electric-Utility Resource Planning and Decision-Making: The Importance of Uncertainty

Uncertainty is a critical factor that pervades all aspects of electric-utility planning. Uncertainties about future load growth, about the continued performance of existing supply and demand resources, and about the costs, construction times, and operations of new resources greatly complicate utility resource acquisition. This paper discusses the factors that lead to uncertainty, reviews the methods that utilities use in planning and in acquiring resources, and suggests future research to help deal with these uncertainties. This review is based on assessments of the long-term resource plans prepared by 10 utilities and one Public Service Commission, telephone interviews with staff at these 11 organizations and with staff at three consulting firms, and reviews of many other related publications.     

基于后悔理论和DEMATEL的语言型多属性决策方法

针对目前语言型多属性决策方法大多基于期望效用理论且不考虑指标间影响关系的不足,提出了一种将后悔理论和决策试验与评价试验法相结合的语言型多属性决策方法。首先,依据后悔理论的思想,定义了语言后悔-欣喜函数,给出了方案感知效用值的计算公式;然后,利用决策试验与评价试验法分析指标间的影响关系,给出了基于语言DEMATEL的指标权重确定方法,再通过指标总容量最大优化模型给出了基于注水原理的指标权重确定方法,并在此基础上求解方案的综合感知效用值,据此对方案进行排序择优;最后,通过两个应用实例来验证所提方法的可行性和有效性。实例结果表明,由于该方法同时考虑了决策者的心理行为和指标间的影响关系,因此可使决策结果更加贴近现实且更为可靠。     

The Value of Animal Test Information in Environmental Control Decisions

Value of information (VOI)analytic techniques are used to evaluate the benefit of performing animal bioassays to provide information about the cancer potency of specific chemical compounds. These tools allow the identification of the conditions in which the cost of reducing uncertainty about potency, by performing a subchronic or chronic bioassay, is justified by the benefit of having improved information for making control decisions. The decision analytic results are readily scaled to apply to a range of human contact rates (exposures)and a variety of control strategies. The sensitivity of results to uncertainty about animal to human extrapolation and the design of the bioassay is explored. An evaluation of the possible gains in general understanding about the mechanisms of carcinogenicity resulting from chronic bioassays is beyond the scope of this approach.     

模糊积分在多目标决策中的应用研究

基于模糊测度与模糊积分理论,运用层次分析法获取测度函数,研究了解决多目标决策问题的应用方法,实现了模糊积分与层次分析法的联合应用。算例表明,模糊积分理论可以用来解决多目标决策问题。     

基于公众偏好大数据分析的大群体应急决策质量动态演化研究

针对突发事件大群体应急决策质量及其影响因素的问题,探讨了公众参与视角下突发事件演化的全生命周期,以及各阶段下公众风险感知对应急决策质量的影响,并以“8·12天津港爆炸”为背景案例进行分析。首先,阐述了公众偏好大数据的获取及处理方式,并以此对“8·12天津港爆炸”案例的公众偏好大数据进行预处理和可视化;其次,通过TF-IDF算法提取并量化公众风险感知,建立大群体应急决策质量打分函数,衡量不同阶段的应急决策质量;最后,基于“8·12天津港爆炸”案例的微博数据进行大群体应急决策质量的动态演化分析,得出研究结论和启示。实证表明,所提的模型与方法具有较新颖的研究视角,能够为大数据背景下的应急响应和政府决策提供理论支持和方法辅助。     

On the influence of a biased decision support model on subjects’ behavior

Summary  The role of decision tools in managerial decisions can be crucial. Yet, there is very little research seeking to understand and measure the influence of planning models on decision-makers’ actual behavior or performance. We focus on investigating, in an experimental context, the influence of a decision model (time allocation model) on student subjects’ changes of mind and behavior. Of special interest is the effect of the articulated importance of criteria on subjects’ choices. Furthermore, we have also studied how the above mentioned model influences subjects’ actual (measurable) performance. The results are partly conflicting, though interesting: (1) the (biased) decision model did have a significant influence on the subjects’ choices, (2) when the model provided additional freedom to improve criterion values, the subjects’ choices were rather inconsistent with the articulated importance of criteria, (3) the interpretation is not clear, how plans influence actual behavior, and (4) the subjects did not fully recognize the bias of the model (when present). However, our findings very clearly demonstrate that model developers have a great responsibility. Biased models may guide managers to make dramatically erroneous decisions in bona fide. We hope that our findings generate additional research into this important, but under-researched topic.      

Medical Decision Making and Elective Surgery: The Case of Hysterectomy

Review and analyses of three sources of data are presented indicating that 25% of hysterectomies are elective. Annual mortality associated with elective hysterectomy is estimated to be 319, or about 12,122 woman years. Cost-benefit analyses of mortality, life expectancy, morbidity, psychological sequelae, as well as dollar expenditures, reveal high costs and relatively limited benefits. Explanations for this apparent anomaly in decision making are explored and include economic incentives, system structure, sexism, and cancer prophylaxis. Principles of risk perception are discussed in terms of potential biases associated with the cancer prophylaxis motive. It is suggested that physicians' judgements of risk may be more salient to the decision process than those of prospective patients.     

Distributed Decision‐Making in Supply Chains and Private E‐Marketplaces

This paper develops a distributed decision‐making framework for the players in a supply chain or a private e‐marketplace to collaboratively arrive at a global Pareto‐optimal solution. In this model, no player has complete knowledge about all the costs and constraints of the other players. The decision‐making framework employs an iterative procedure, based on the Integer L‐shaped method, in which a master problem is solved to propose global solutions, and each player uses his local problems to construct feasibility and optimality cuts on the master problem. The master problem is modeled as a mixed‐integer program, and the players' local problems are formulated as linear programs. Collaborative planning scenarios in private e‐marketplaces and in supply chains were formulated and solved for test data. The results show that this distributed model is able to achieve near‐optimal solutions considerably faster than the traditional centralized approach.