复杂系统多层局势决策方法研究

本文基于单层局势决策和二层系统决策理论提出了用于复杂系统的一种多层局势决策新方法,并建立了相应的数学模型.     

复杂科学与质量管理研究

系统科学对质量管理的重大贡献就是促成了全面质量管理的诞生与发展,而复杂科学是系统科学发展的新阶段,它主要是研究复杂性与复杂系统的科学。复杂科学必然对质量管理的发展起着十分重大的影响,本文就此进行一些初步的探讨。     

基于决策元价值概念模型的系统决策价值认知研究

决策的背后都有价值认知问题,不同的决策研究范式对决策涵义理解的差异也体现在价值认知上.基于决策元价值概念模型对简单小系统、大系统、巨系统以及复杂系统决策的价值认知进行了研究,提出了一套新的价值认知体系,并讨论了不同决策系统中决策与价值分析、价值寻求分析的关系,给出了面向复杂系统问题决策的价值综合集成概念框架.     

住房市场系统复杂网络模型研究

将系统科学和复杂网络理论相结合,建立了包含银行、房地产开发企业和购房消费者三级节点的住房市场系统复杂网络模型,刻画了住房市场系统的结构特性和动态演化特性,并通过模拟仿真上海住房市场交易变动情况,体现了住房市场的客观规律。研究提出的住房市场复杂网络模型为住房市场研究提供了新的方法,克服了以往研究模型由于数据的有限性所导致的、复杂系统过度线性化近似和动态性研究不足的问题,在此基础上开展实证研究具有重要现实意义。     

复杂经济系统集成调控思想、方法与应用

本文针对复杂经济系统的特征，将复杂经济系统作为一个生存演化系统来研究，遵循系统生存一发展一优化的思想指导，在生存理论和生存调控的基础上，引入生存质量函数，定义新的生存选择调节律，从而将生存调控和最优调控结合起来实现对复杂经济系统的集成调控。最后讨论集成调控在资本经营系统中的应用。     

非均衡市场的生存调控

本文应用生存理论研究经济系统中非均衡市场的调控问题,提出了非均衡市场的生存调控理论.文中给出了非均衡市场的生存调控轨线和生存调控区域,及在价格调控和数量调控下非均衡市场的调控律.生存调控为复杂经济系统的调控提供了一种新的思路和方法.     

复杂产品系统合作创新契约模型有效性研究

合作创新是复杂产品系统模块化生产的重要手段,但模块研制中的利益外部性和隐藏检查行为使合作单位易发生道德风险损害项目效益。通过不完全契约激励模型的构建和分析,对模块分包模式和联合研制模式契约模型在合作单位激励约束机制上的有效性进行了探讨。研究表明,模块分包模式中合作单位不承担系统集成风险,因此惩罚金和完全竞争不能抑制道德风险的发生;而联合研制模式使利益外部性内部化,从而避免合作单位道德风险的发生,保证了合作创新的有效性。     

复杂大系统综合动态分析与模型体系

论述了“复杂大系统综合动态分析与模型体系”及其应用, 这是一种定性与定量结合, 以系统动力学、系统思考理论为指导, 以系统动力学的动态模型为主框架, 汲取其它定量理论与方法的精髓, 建立起来的综合动态分析方法和模型体系. 它可用来研究社会、经济、生态复杂大系统的问题.     

复杂决策问题的多元化模型体系研究

鉴于复杂决策问题的特点,仅仅依靠定量模型难以描述和求解复杂决策问题. 从定性到 定量综合集成角度出发,认为复杂决策问题的求解过程需要多元化模型支持. 依据复杂决策问 题的认知层次,提出复杂决策问题的多元化模型体系中包含概念模型、结构模型和数学模型, 并对这三类模型进行了论述.     

基于产品质量内生的制造/再制造最优生产决策

从制造商的视角出发,将产品质量水平作为内生变量,并考虑质量水平对返回废旧产品的降级率的影响,分别讨论单寡头、双寡头非合作以及双寡头合作市场中,制造商最优制造/再制造决策策略.根据需求市场对产品价格和质量水平的敏感性,进行经济性分析,权衡制造商的制造/再制造的收益、生产成本,优化产品质量水平,帮助企业决定合理的再制造比例.研究结果显示:随着降级率的增大,制造商会降低再制造比例;制造商设置的降级率在不同模式下对利润与价格的影响是有差异的.     

The complementary effects of rationality and intuition on strategic decision quality

Rationality and intuition are important dimensions of the strategic decision process. Prior studies have viewed these as distinct dimensions, providing limited insights for our understanding of strategic decision processes. Drawing on the dual process theory and research on process capability, this study examines the interplay between rationality and intuition based on a sample of 103 strategic decisions made by service firms in Greece. The results suggest that combining rationality and intuition at the same time leads to successful strategic decisions. Also, the moderating role of environmental dynamism was investigated. We found that in dynamic settings, decision-making teams which combine rationality and intuition outperform teams which use rationality or intuition separately. The implications of these findings for theory and practice are important and are analysed in the paper.     

二分群体决策规则的序性质研究

Karotkin等发现二分群体决策的加权多数决策规则集具有序性质,但未能解释其原因.文章提出了规则链和规则距离函数的概念,指出当一组决策规则构成规则链时这组规则便具有序性质,从而解释了这一现象.而判断一组规则是否构成规则链则可以通过计算各规则间的规则距离来实现.随后通过对具体实例的分析进一步阐述了得到的结论.     

基于神经网络的期货套期保值决策支持系统

针对期货套期保值业务的特点 ,分析了期货套期保值决策支持系统的整体逻辑 ,尝试用人工神经网络专家系统预测期货行情走势 ,介绍了如何将期货市场与 BP网络有机结合起来构造适合期价预测的模型 ,并且在实证分析中给出了寻找最优预测效果的方法以及预测结论应用分析 .同时 ,提出了以此分析为基础的 DSS系统结构和功能 ,对辅助套期保值者决策有一定的指导意义     

Systemic approach to supply chain management through the viable system model and the theory of constraints

In today’s environment, Supply Chain Management (SCM) takes a key role in business strategy. A major challenge is achieving high customer service level under a reasonable operating expense and investment. The traditional approach to SCM, based on local optimisation, is a proven cause of meaningful inefficiencies – e.g. the Bullwhip Effect – that obstruct the throughput. The systemic (holistic) approach, based on global optimisation, has been shown to perform significantly better. Nevertheless, it is not widely expanded, since the implementation of an efficient solution requires a suitable scheme. Under these circumstances, this paper proposes an integrative framework for supply chain collaboration aimed at increasing its efficiency. This is based on the combined application of the Beer’s Viable System Model (VSM) and the Goldratt’s Theory of Constraints (TOC). VSM defines the systemic structure of the supply chain and orchestrates the collaboration, while TOC implements the systemic behaviour – i.e. integrate processes – and define performance measures. To support this proposal, we detail its application to the widely used Beer Game scenario. In addition, we discuss its implementation in real supply chains, highlighting the key points that must be considered.     

A decision support system for a third-party coordinator managing supply chain with demand uncertainty

Global supply chains reduce cost but increase lead times, complexities and uncertainties. Retailers in consumer products industry are getting shorter lead time to respond to market demand. To meet this challenge, many rely on third party supply chain managers (SCMs) for economically supplying required quantities of finished products quickly. However, due to shorter ‘time to market’, the SCM has to procure raw materials and start production process based on expected demand. Since SCM absorbs financial penalties associated with under- and over-estimation of demand from retailer, finding an optimal production lot size and product customisation strategy are essential to an SCM's operation. We develop a profit maximisation model and provide a close-form solution that allows an SCM to calculate optimal production lot size. The model is used to examine profitability of postponing product customisation. Finally, the effect of demand variation on SCM's profitability is explored.     

客户流失危机分析的决策树方法

叙述了客户流失的基本概念,分析客户流失危机产生的原因,指出了传统的客户流失危机分析方法存在的问题,在ID3算法的基础上,提出一种加权熵的概念,并对ID3算法进行改进,提出了一种基于决策树的客户流失危机分析方法,通过一个客户流失危机的分析实验对该模型进行了验证.实验结果表明该方法是可行的和有效的,为客户流失危机分析和预警提供了一种新的研究思路和分析方法.     

A critical survey on the status of multiple criteria decision making theory and practice

This paper seeks to review and to contrast the main streams of thought in Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) theory and practice, without attempting to review all MCDM methods in detail. The main purpose is to identify pitfalls in the usage of various approaches, and to suggest approaches which are most robustly and effectively useable, especially by the non-expert in MCDM methodology. Problem areas in MCDM still requiring further research are also discussed.