Deterministic cash flow management: State of the art and research directions

Cash flow management has attracted the increasing attention of both academicians and practitioners in recent time. There is increasing emphasis on cash management as a vital organizational function and evidence indicates that the role and responsibilities of cash managers are expanding beyond conventional boundaries. In an earlier article, Gregory presented an excellent review of a limited class of cash management models. This paper attempts to review the rather large body of deterministic cash flow models that were not reviewed by Gregory. The review places the models in proper perspective by identifying the underlying decision processes and points out the somewhat narrow focus of these models. A modified taxonomy of cash management decisions is suggested as a possible framework for future research. The paper also recognizes the tremendous growth in information and computer technology and its implications for normative modeling efforts in cash management.     

互动公平、委员会决策程序公平与员工决策承诺:基于公平启发理论与不确定管理理论的实证研究

借助层级团队形式制定决策,决策者能激发员工的决策承诺,确保决策的有效执行。以委员会作为决策者的层级团队为例,本文探讨了以下问题:当存在个体对自身胜任力的自信、专用性人力资本投资这两个因素的影响时,互动公平与委员会决策程序公平效应及它们之间的交互效应会发生什么变化?引入公平启发理论与不确定管理理论,本文假设并检验了上述四个因素如何交互作用于员工决策承诺。以两家大型商业银行信贷业务人员为研究对象,实证研究表明:(1)自信和专用性人力资本投资对委员会决策程序公平效应有着显著调节作用,但它们对互动公平效应的调节作用不显著;(2)当存在自信和专用性人力资本投资的影响时,较强的互动公平与委员会决策程序公平之间的交互效应更稳定一些,而较低的互动公平感知与程序公平之间的交互效应在方向上发生变化。本文有助于管理者理解"公平何时能引致员工合作"这一问题,帮助其更好地把握决策过程以获得员工对其决策的支持。本研究的假设完全基于公平启发理论(FHT)和不确定管理理论(UMT)的理论逻辑做出,实证结果与FHT和UMT的理论预测以及已有实证研究结果相一致,这意味着本研究具有较高可信性和可靠性,能为进一步理论探索提供了比较坚实的基础。     

The Contribution of Formal Planning Systems to Strategic Investment Decisions1

This paper aims to investigate linkages between formal planning systems (FPSs) and characteristics of the processes followed in making strategic investment decisions (SIDs). The empirical testing was based on a sample of 70 SIDs drawn from 38 industrial enterprises operating in Greece. Primary data on FPSs and SIDs were provided by key participants in the decision-making process, using a combination of structured interviews and questionnaire completion. Contrary to the argument raised by several academics that much decision making takes place outside FPSs, the findings of this paper support the view that at least for decisions of a clearly strategic nature this may not be valid. Results consistently show that strong associations exist between characteristics of SID processes and dimensions of FPSs. More specifically: The degree of rationality-comprehensiveness as well as degree of financial reporting in the process of making SIDs is positively associated with FPSs. Particularly strong is the association between the existence of a set of formalized rules guiding the process of strategic decision making and FPSs. Furthermore, the association between both hierarchical decentralization and lateral communication in advancing SIDs and FPSs appears to be fairly strong. Finally, results failed to support any statistical significant relationship between duration timing of SID processes and dimensions of FPSs.     

When do Public Managers Imitate Each Other? Mimetic Decision Making in Contracting Decisions of Danish Municipalities

Using organizational new institutional theory, this paper explores a core mechanism underlying contracting decisions in public organizations. A central proposition of this branch of institutional theory is that uncertainty leads to organizational isomorphism. The present study investigates this proposition by asking: When does perceived uncertainty lead public managers to imitative behavior in contracting out decisions? Contrary to most previous studies, we apply an individual level approach and relate different types of perceived uncertainty of decision makers to mimetic decision making. We define mimetic decision making as when decision makers deliberately obtain information about other organizations in order to possibly imitate them. In a survey of Danish municipal managers facing important and complex contracting decisions, we test our hypotheses about three types of perceived uncertainty and mimetic decision making. The results show that technological uncertainty is strongly related to mimetic decision making among public managers. However, we do not find significant results for either volume uncertainty or performance uncertainty. The paper illustrates how uncertainty, through mimetic decision making, is connected to organizational isomorphism. It further highlights that future studies should pay attention to the multidimensionality of uncertainty and its consequences.     

Generating Explanations for Goal-Based Decision Making*

As information systems make the transition from decision support to decision making, there will be a concomitant need for the programs to explain or justify their actions. Without such explanations, humans will not readily cede authority to a machine. This paper describes an automated decision-making program, VOTE, which generates natural language explanations for its decisions in both English and French. The program domain is Congressional roll call voting. VOTE simulates voting decisions of specific members of the United States House of Representatives on given bills. VOTE's natural language generation facility is also used by the underlying databases to interpret the knowledge representations. These underlying knowledge representations are described and applications of this decision making model to the general business domains of strategic planning, investment, and marketing are suggested.     

Revenue Management vs. Newsvendor Decisions: Does Behavioral Response Mirror Normative Equivalence?

We study and compare decision‐making behavior under the newsvendor and the two‐class revenue management models, in an experimental setting. We observe that, under both problems, decision makers deviate significantly from normative benchmarks. Furthermore, revenue management decisions are consistently higher compared to the newsvendor order quantities. In the face of increasing demand variability, revenue managers increase allocations; this behavior is consistent with normative patterns when the ratio of the selling prices of the two customer segments is less than 1/2, but is its exact opposite when this ratio is greater than 1/2. Newsvendors' behavior with respect to changing demand variability, on the other hand, is consistent with normative trends. We also observe that losses due to leftovers weigh more in newsvendor decisions compared to the revenue management model; we argue that overage cost is more salient in the newsvendor problem because it is perceived as a direct loss, and propose this as the driver of the differences in behavior observed under the two problems.     

Corporate strategies for political action

Discussions of the firm's relationships with its environment have usually concluded that the firm should make adaptive decisions to non-market areas, and proactive or strategic decisions in market areas. Predicating strategic responses upon the differences between market and non-market relationships is inappropriate and misleading, reduces the capacity of the firm to respond effectively to its environment, and distorts the process of environmental scanning. When the firm's relationships with its environment are examined as inter-organizational relationships, market and non-market relationships are structurally similar, and the same types of strategic responses can be selected for both areas. The strategic responses available to the firm in inter-organizational terms are: adaptation; pre-emption, co-optation; interpenetration; conflict and withdrawal. These processes and choices are structurally similar to traditional market related strategic options and can be used to respond to market and non-market factors. The manager scans the environment not only to identify opportunities for adaptation, but to identify groups which affect the integrity of the firm, the processes for interaction, the character of relationships, and occasions for strategic choice. The strategic decision process under a framework of inter-organizational transactions is illustrated by the cases of Sun Life Insurance Co., and the pulp and paper industry in Quebec.     

MANAGING PRODUCT VARIETY: AN INTEGRATIVE REVIEW AND RESEARCH DIRECTIONS

Variety management has emerged as a crucial dimension of successful business practice. In this paper, I first provide a framework for managerial decisions about variety. Variety‐creation decisions determine the amount, type, and timing of end‐product variety, while variety‐implementation decisions focus on the design and operation of internal processes and a supply chain to support a firm's variety‐creation strategy. I organize variety‐related decisions into four key decision themes in variety creation: 1) dimensions of variety, 2) product architecture, 3) degree of customization, and 4) timing; and three key decision themes in variety implementation: 1) process capabilities, 2) points of variegation, and 3) day‐to‐day decisions. I describe each theme and review the relevant literature on each theme, with a focus on research that provides insight to problems faced in practice. Finally, I identify untapped avenues for future research that would be of value to the practicing manager, paying special attention to interdependencies among decision themes.     

Globalization and its impact on global managers' decision processes

Globalization of business can have a profound impact on the decision-making processes of managers responsible for making these complex interrelated decisions. This paper explores the global decision-making processes of global managers. The first element examined is the multiple intelligences that global managers need to be able to address the issues associated with global decisions. These eight IQs are considered critical elements in the decision-making capabilities of global managers. Following this discussion, the composition of global groups and their impact on the decision-making process is explored to determine how the composition of the group inhibits/supports the global manager. The next step in the decision-making process discussed in the paper is that of the nature of the task(s). The type of task can have a direct impact on the effectiveness as well as the efficiency of global manager's decision-making. The crux of the issue is that a global orientation to decision-making is poised as being significantly different from decision processes use by managers in a multinational context.     

Municipal Waste Management: Inequities and the Role of Deliberation

Like radioactive waste, municipal solid waste (MSW) requires consideration of a complex mix of intergenerational and intragenerational risks surrounded by uncertain science. Unlike radioactive waste, MSW is a common problem and hence one often perceived to be controllable, at least until a required facility is proposed in a particular community. The intragenerational risks focused on local communities rouse intense public pressures for management. Although some of the risks can be quantified, the risk assessment process cannot deal with all questions. This article examines the multiple dimensions of the decisions required to be made and the weaknesses of a number of decision tools traditionally used. A case is made for the need to integrate decision tools appropriate to the risks into reflexive and iterative decision processes open to public involvement. It is argued that this presents the best hope of both optimizing decisions about the intragenerational risks as well as raising public debate about the importance of sustainable waste management in transgenerational terms.     

COMPUTER-BASED SUPPORT OF ORGANIZATIONAL DECISION MAKING*

The central issue of this research is the extent to which computer facilities can be used to support organizational decision-making processes beyond mere performance of information retrieval. This depends upon the extent to which computers can be made to emulate human perceptual and judgmental processes. We present a framework for understanding these cognitive processes and examine how it applies to organizational decisions. Moreover, the framework furnishes a basis for the design of a generalized, intelligent problem processor. This processor is general in the sense of its ability to support a decision maker's activities, regardless of the decision maker's application area (e.g., urban planning, water-quality planning, etc.). It is intelligent in the sense of its ability to comprehend English-like queries and subsequently formulate models, interface appropriate data with those models, and execute the models to produce some facts or expectations about the problem under consideration.     

A STUDY OF HOW TAX POLICY IS MADE: ADVERTISING TAX,IOWA

Within a two year period, a state government enacted and repealed a tax on advertising service. These two closely related decisions provide a somewhat unique setting to observe if there is a common set of propositions that helps explain both decision processes. The tax enactment scenario serves to provide a set of empirical propositions about the decision process. The second scenario is treated as a modified replication to partially test the reliability of these propositions.     

What do we loose when machines take the decisions?

This paper concerns the technical issues raised when humans are replaced by artificial intelligence (AI) in organisational decision making, or decision making in general. Such automation of human tasks and decision making can of course be beneficial through saving human resources, and through (ideally) leading to better solutions and decisions. However, to guarantee better decisions, the current AI techniques still have some way to go in most areas, and many of the techniques also suffer from weaknesses such as lack of transparency and explainability. The goal of the paper is not to argue against using any kind of AI in organisational decision making. AI techniques have a lot to offer, and can for instance assess a lot more possible decisions—and much faster—than any human can. The purpose is just to point to the weaknesses that AI techniques still have, and that one should be aware of when considering to implement AI to automate human decisions. Significant current AI research goes into reducing its limitations and weaknesses, but this is likely to become a fairly long-term effort. People and organisations might be tempted to fully automate certain crucial aspects of decision making without waiting for these limitations and weaknesses to be reduced—or, even worse, not even being aware of those weaknesses and what is lost in the automatisation process.

     

DECISION MAKING PROCESSES: USING DISCRIMINATION NETS FOR SECURITY SELECTION

This paper examines the judgmental processes of individuals involved in stock selection through the use of discrimination nets. Research has shown that there is no incompatibility in the so-called random walk model and the fundamentalist or intrinsic approach. Doing systematically better than the average investor implies that the superior investor has a superior way of evaluating existing information. An improved market success depends in part on an increased understanding of investors decisionmaking processes. Thus, if a superior investor's judgmental processes can be demonstrated and readily modeled, then, the next step would be to compare these decision processes with those of the average investors and note differences. The results of this study showed that the decision-making processes of individuals not only can be adequately programmed, but that the decision process is rather stable for a given investor. The paper also shows, however, that while the model accurately predicted accept or reject decisions, in most cases it was limited in its ability to rank order securities from the set of accepted investments.     

Decision model for product rollover in manufacturing operations

The purpose of this study is to investigate critical decisions when planning for product rollover at a manufacturing company, and how to organise these decisions. A literature review and a case study are used to develop a decision model. The findings indicate that product rollover can be organised in a five-phase decision model. The research quality is strengthened by a structured literature review, but it can be argued that more empirical research is needed for validation. For researchers, this paper contributes with the identification of critical decisions and a model for product rollover. For practitioners, the study highlights the need to acknowledge the importance of product rollover and its role as a competitive weapon. In earlier studies, product rollover has mainly been investigated from a market perspective, so that this study contributes by investigating the issue from a manufacturing perspective.     

The complementary effects of rationality and intuition on strategic decision quality

Rationality and intuition are important dimensions of the strategic decision process. Prior studies have viewed these as distinct dimensions, providing limited insights for our understanding of strategic decision processes. Drawing on the dual process theory and research on process capability, this study examines the interplay between rationality and intuition based on a sample of 103 strategic decisions made by service firms in Greece. The results suggest that combining rationality and intuition at the same time leads to successful strategic decisions. Also, the moderating role of environmental dynamism was investigated. We found that in dynamic settings, decision-making teams which combine rationality and intuition outperform teams which use rationality or intuition separately. The implications of these findings for theory and practice are important and are analysed in the paper.     

The Quality of Stakeholder-Based Decisions

The increased use of stakeholder processes in environmental decision making has raised concerns about the quality of decisions these processes produce. Some claim that stakeholders make inadequate use of scientific information and analysis and are all too ready to sacrifice technical quality for political expediency. This article looks to the case study record to examine the quality of the decisions from stakeholder-based processes. The data for the analysis come from a "case survey," in which researchers coded information from 239 published case studies of stakeholder involvement in environmental decision making. These cases reflect a diversity of planning, management, and implementation activities carried out by environmental and natural resource agencies at many levels of government. Overall, the case-study record suggests that there should be little concern that stakeholder processes are resulting in low-quality decisions. The majority of cases contain evidence of stakeholders improving decisions over the status quo; adding new information, ideas, and analysis; and having adequate access to technical and scientific resources. Indeed, data suggest that it is the more intensive stakeholder processes--precisely those that have aroused recent concern--that are more likely to result in higher-quality decisions.     

Information systems and managerial decision making

The role of an information system is to support managerial decision processes. Some of these processes can be completely specified in advance and, as long as the specification remains acceptable to management, resolution can be done automatically, within the framework of the information system. However, in other cases, managers are involved in all stages of the decision process, which cannot be completely specified in advance. The task of the information system in these cases is to provide information to the managers engaged in making the decisions. This paper considers these problems from the point of view of the information system designer and makes recommendations about design and implementation.     

需求与提前期不确定下的生产—销售协调

考虑一个按订单生产企业,其需求同时取决于价格和提前期。在企业内部,销售部门进行定价决策,生产部门则进行订货和提前期的决策。文中将生产及销售部门之间的相互作用表示成一个Nash博弈模型,并证明了纯策略均衡的存在性和唯一性。此外,提出了一个能够协调生产和销售部门决策的机制。最后,通过数值分析讨论了各参数对部门均衡决策的影响以及企业不需要运用协调机制的条件。