Competition for Jobs to Be More Severe

In three or five years, the employment situation in China will aggravate: in addition to current problems of laid-off workers from state-owned enterprises and surplus rural laborers, there will be intensive competition for jobs between China抯 urban and rural laborers and between countries, according to Chen Huai, researcher with the State Council Development Research Center, a leading economic think tank. 200 Million Surplus Rural Laborers China抯 development in the next five years will…     

The Impacts of Rural Labor Migration on China’s Economy and Regional Disparities

This study constructed Computable General Equi-librium(CGE) model of four-regions and six-departments to analyze the impacts of rural labor migration on economic growth and regional disparities in China, based on 2000 and 2007 China’s Regional Input-Output Tables. The results showed that it had made China’s GDP respectively grow from 1.054% in 2000 to 5.565% in 2007.The impacts had the most obvious effects on the eastern region’s economic growth, the largest growth rate on the central region’s economic growth, and a negative-to-positive transformation on the western region’s economic growth. Compared with rural labor migration within regions, it widened gap among regions in 2007,making the disparities of eastern-central, eastern-western and central-western respectively grow by 5.738%,6.668% and 12.627%. These disparities were much higher than those in 2000.Meanwhile the migration led value added in nonagricultural sectors to increase and added value in agricultural sector to decrease. Also it left the greater impact on the service sector of the central region and greatest impact on the heavy industrial sectors of the western region.     

Support for the Elderly under the Market Transition in China

Modernization theory predicts loosening family ties and the gradual decline of family supports for the elderly. In a transitional economy,we argue that the rapidly growing income for adult children helps to maintain family supports for the elderly at a high level.Data from 2005 China’s 1%population survey shows that half of elderly people in towns or rural areas relied on family supports as the main source for living.The odds-ratio from Logistic regression shows that family supports were far greater for females than males and far greater for rural than for urban residents.Labor migration by a rural household member greatly enhanced the odds of family supports for the elderly in rural areas.In the cities,we found that the odds of family supports were the highest in the well-developed regions along the coast.As the population is rapidly aging, more government efforts are needed to expand socialized supports for the elderly, especially to the weakest.     

Multi-scale Studies on the Space Consistency between Population Distribution and Economic Development in China

The relationship between population distribution and economic development has attracted much attention for a long time.Space consistency between population distribution and economic development in China was evaluated in different temporal and spatial scales using qualitative and quantitative analysis methods through constructing the Consistency of Population and Economy Index and Consistency Deviation Index since the reform and opening-up.The results showed that:At the county level,the degree of population agglomeration was higher than that of economy agglomeration from 2000 to2010.Population agglomeration showed obvious economic oriented characteristics,and the agglomeration of population and economy was steadily optimized.At the provincial level,space consistency between population distribution and economic development enhanced gradually during 2000～2010.And,the disparity of space consistency decreased due to the narrowing regional economic disparity.At the regional and national levels,the space consistency in eastern region was basically stable,the middle region kept the best record,the western region was in decline,while the northeast region showed a slight increasing trend.The nation space consistency showed a decreasing trend from 1978 to 2010.     

The Trend of China＇s Gini Coefficient： A Calculation by Subdividing People Groups of 2000~2009＇s National Statistic Data

To reduce the error factors on calculating China’s Gini Coefficient, this paper first subdivides people (data of 2000～2009) into multiple groups according to 3 gaps, ie. interregional, urban-rural and wealth , then sorts the groups of urban and rural according to each income level. The area method is used to calculate the Gini Coefficient. The finding shows that China’s Gini Coefficient is at a high level. It became bigger during the 10th Five-year Plan period but kept stable during the 11th Five-year Plan period. Under the rapid developmentofurbanization,theincome distribution in urban areas became one of the biggest contributive factors to Gini Coefficient.     

Social Security and Protection For the Disadvantaged

More than twenty years of reform and opening-up has brought remarkable changes to China in both socioeconomic development and the income and living standards of its people. However, with the introduction of the contract responsibility system in rural areas and the reform of the employment and income distribution systems in urban areas, the concepts of an 搃ron bowl?and 揺ating from the same big pot?under the old system have been abandoned. Chinese society has left behind an era of universal p…     

China’s Urban Population Exceeding Half: Challenges and Responses

China’s urban population exceeded rural population for the first time in Chinese history,reaching 51.27% in 2011.However,the level of urbanization has been exaggerated.If deducting the landless peasants under forced urbanization and migrant workers being not treated equally in the cities,China’ s actual urbanization level stood at 41.6% .There are challenges ahead.For example,an urban social value system has not been established in our society; we don’ t have a clear understanding of the role of cities and how to develop a city; urban management has not prepared well for urbanization development; and there is a long way to go in achieving equal treatment for all of the Urban residents.To cope with the challenges of urbanization,we need to improve the quality of urbanization,correctly understand the role of urbanization and its substance,follow the law of the urban development,and to explore building of an urban culture system.     

Quantitative Analysis on the Impact of Urbanisation on Chinese Population Aging

This paper systematically studies the impact of fertility, mortality, initial age structure and rural-urban migration on population aging in rural and urban China from 2000 to 2010. The results show that urbanisation plays a crucial role in population aging in both rural and urban areas and its inf luence is closely linked to the age pattern of the migrants. One third of young rural population transformed into urban population during that period. The contribution of rural-urban migration to population aging in rural areas is 43.4 percent, which is higher than any inf luences from population’s natural changes, and is dominant in population aging in the countryside. Rural-urban migration contributes-118.0 percent to population aging in urban areas by reducing the proportion of aged population and its influence was only lower than that of the initial age structure. The impact of urbanisation on population aging in towns is relatively limited. Among factors from population’s natural changes, the inf luence of the initial age structure is higher than those from changes of mortality and fertility. The paper discusses the causes and developmental trends of impact of urbanisation on population aging between rural and urban areas, and addresses some policy recommendations to deal with socio-economic challenges.     

The Urban Poor: A New Problem in China

China has made great progress in reducing its impoverished population in rural areas from 250 million in 1978 to 30 million today, although regional disparities are widening. Since the mid-1980s, however, China has faced a new problem: the urban poor. Government statistics indicate that the urban poor population consists of the following four groups of people: people on the dole who have no source of income, no working ability or no legal supporter; people who receive unemployment reli…     

Income Gap Widens in Beijing

The income gap between the highest- and lowest-income groups in Beijing, China’s capital city, grew to 4:1 in 2004, up from 3:1 in 2003, according to a sampling survey of 2,000 urban households conducted by the Beijing Municipal Statistics Bureau. Among the most important factors affecting income levels were education and profession, the survey indicated. The survey suggested that in 2004, the per capita disposable income of Beijing residents was RMB15,638, up 12.6% from 2003. Low-income…     

Effect of Migration on Rural Women''''s FP and Reproductive Health

china's rural economic reform has been ongoing for nearly two decades. As a result, thousands of rural laborers have been freed from land and migrated to cities to seek jobs. This huge migrant population has helped promote economic development in the host cities while increasing their own income. Furthermore, working in cities is really an eye-opening experience for them, exposing them to advanced technologies and more colorful lifestyles. Among the many impacts on the migrant population cau…     

Research on Health Status and Health Care of the Elderly in China

The issue of health status and care for the elderly in urban and rural areas is becoming increasingly serious in the rapid context of population aging in China.The paper analyzed the health status of urban and rural elderly in China in the two-week morbidity rate,prevalence rate of chronic diseases, disability status,self-rated health and healthy life expectancy of the elderly using the data from the 2006 Sampling Survey on the Status of Urban/ Rural Aged Population in China,the Fourth National Health Service Survey and the 2006 Second China National Sample Survey on Disability,to explore the current provision of sources of care for the elderly and try to make some policy recommendations about to improve the health and care for the elderly population facing the crisis of population aging.     

Government Takes Steps to Increase Farmers＇ Incomes

Though 2004 saw a sharp rise in farmers‘ incomes,the income gap between rural and urban residents continued to widen. Chinese officials consider this a major obstacle to what they call the “building of aharmonious society.”     

Dynamics of Nonagricultural Transfer of Rural Labour Force in China

since the reform and opening to the outside world there has been a rapid and continuing growth of nonagricultural transfer of rural labor force in China. The existing studies on this issue are largely confined to migration or regional transfer of rural labor force. Meantime, because of the limitations of available data, there are few studies with time-series analysis. In this article, following the definition of non-agricultural transfer of rural labour force. estimation is made of the amount and its time-series changes of non-agricultural transfer of rural labour force by using data derived from common primary statistics through simple calculations, with analysis of the dynamics of non-agricultural transfer of rural labour force in the context of China＇s economic development and policy changes.     

South China Feels Acute Labor Shortage

The Pearl River Delta, with Guangzhou — the capital of Guangdong Province — as its nucleus, has for years been an economic powerhouse in China.Millions of surplus rural workers once flocked to the south China region to find jobs, but now the area is facing a crisis: many farmers-turned-laborers are shunning the Pearl River area and are moving instead to the Yangtze River Delta,     

The Change and Trend of Population Momentum in China since 60 Years

This paper calculates total population momentum,urban and rural population momentum and agespecific population momentum in China since 60 years.The main findings and conclusions are as follows:Firstly,the power of population momentum of the positive growth is disappearing rapidly;Secondly,the cities are in the turning point of population momentum from positive to the negative growth while China’ s population growth was wholly attributable to momentum in the rural areas;Thirdly,China’ s population momentum of positive growth mainly is due to substantial growth of the old.     

Economic Impact of Rural to Urban Labor Migration in China from 1991 to 2011

This paper quantitatively explores the size of rural labor force transfer and the specified flow nonagricultural industries, and the corresponding contribution of the increase of labor force utilization and productivity to economic growth from 1991 to 2011. The transfer size increased from 86.73 million people in 1990 to more than 250 million people in 2011. In 2011, 53.7% of the transfer labor worked in second industry, the others in third industry. By using growth accounting, this paper decomposes GDP growth into three growth components: working age population, labor force productivity and labor force utilization. Firstly, the paper calculated the real average annual growth rate of these three factor from 1991 to 2011 and their contributions to GDP growth. Then we calculated the changes of three factors and GDP'growth rates under the scenario without rural labor transfer, and finally got the contribution of rural labor transfer to GDP growth by comparing the difference between real and assumption scenario. The resuit shows that from 1991 to 2011, the real average annual growth rate of three factors were 1.3%, 9.3% and-0.3%, and their contribution the GDP growth was 12.2%, 90.2% and-2.4%separately. Under the scenario without rural labor transfer, the average annual growth rates of labor force productivity and labor force utilization would reduce to 8.9% and-1.4%, while the GDP average annual growth rate would reduce from 10.3% to 8.8%. The profound analysis in details shows that the transfer promoted labor force utilization by 30.7%and productivity by 23.9% annually on average, therefore promoting GDP by 63.7%, and GDP growth rate by 1.6% annually on average. On the one hand, through the utilizing of the ‘surplus rural labor force', the transfer promoted the labor force utilization, then made the potential population dividend brought by the increase of working age population size practical; on the other hand, through promoting of labor force industry structure, the transfer promoted the total productivity. The transfer has been and will be an important driving force of economic growth in China.     

Changing Patterns of Sex Ratio at Birth in China: A Comparative Analysis of Data from the Fifth and Sixth Censuses of China

Using date from the 2000 and 2010 censuses,this paper examines changing patterns of sex ratio at birth(SRB)in China.The two censuses documented increasing SRBs at first parity,in urban areas,for minority ethic groups,and at all educational levels;lessening gaps across the provinces,between urban and rural areas,between the Han and ethnic minorities,and between birth orders;and increasing number of provinces subject to highly and extremely abnormal SRB.The observed changing patterns of China’s SRB suggest that in the past 10 years,high SRB has spread from the Han nationality to ethnic minorities,from the countryside to the cities,from the higher birth order to the lower birth order,from lower education to the highly educated women.     

A Comparative Analysis of the Fertility of the Urban and Rural in China Since 2000

The different in the fertility of the rural and urban and future changing trend are very important questions to understand China’s population problem. This paper calculates the fertility of the urban and the rural since 2000 based on the statistical data and compares the fertility rate in the urban and the rural population since 2000. The finding shows that the TFR in the rural is less than 1.8 while the TFR in the urban is less than 1.3 and the difference is narrowing year by year. The fertility difference is mainly caused by the second child, generally speaking the second child fertility tend to increasing slightly while the first child fertility shows dramatic fluctuations because of the Chinese folk culture, the fertility fluctuation in the rural is much dramatic than that in the urban. The mean age at childbearing (MAC) has been delaying in both the rural and the urban areas in the decade.     

Income Gap Continues to Widen over Next Five Years

China is facing a dilemma in its transition from a traditional, egalitarian planned economy to a competitive market economy: on the one hand, to motivate productivity and retain capable workers, it has to offer competitive salaries to capable employees; on the other hand, disparities in education, geographical location and levels of economic development have given rise to widening income gaps between different groups of its citizens. The Ministry of Labor and Social Security recently announc…