Comment on testing for spurious and cointegrated regressions: a wavelet approach

In a recent paper, Leong and Huang [6] proposed a wavelet-correlation-based approach to test for cointegration between two time series. However, correlation and cointegration are two different concepts even when wavelet analysis is used. It is known that statistics based on non-stationary integrated variables have non-standard asymptotic distributions. However, wavelet analysis offsets the integrating order of non-stationary series so that traditional asymptotics on stationary variables suffices to ascertain the statistical properties of wavelet-based statistics. Based on this, this note shows that wavelet correlations cannot be used as a test of cointegration.     

A simple solution for spurious regressions

ABSTRACT

The literature on spurious regressions has found that the t-statistic for testing the null of no relationship between two independent variables diverges asymptotically under a wide variety of non stationary data-generating processes for the dependent and explanatory variables. This paper introduces a simple method which guarantees convergence of this t-statistic to a pivotal limit distribution, thus allowing asymptotic inference. This method can be used to distinguish a genuine relationship from a spurious one among integrated processes. We apply the proposed procedure to several pairs of apparently independent integrated variables, and find that our procedure does not find (spurious) significant relationships.     

Testing heteroscedasticity in nonlinear and nonparametric regressions

This article presents new nonparametric tests for heteroscedasticity in nonlinear and nonparametric regression models. The tests have an asymptotic standard normal distribution under the null hypothesis of homoscedasticity and are robust against any form of heteroscedasticity. A Monte Carlo simulation with critical values obtained from the wild bootstrap procedure is provided to asses the finite sample performances of the tests. A real application of testing interest rate volatility functions illustrates the usefulness of the tests proposed. The Canadian Journal of Statistics © 2009 Statistical Society of Canada     

A Meta Analytic Approach to Testing for Panel Cointegration

We propose new tests for panel cointegration by extending the panel unit root tests of Choi (2001 Choi , I. ( 2001 ). Unit root tests for panel data . Journal of International Money and Finance 20 ( 2 ): 249 – 272 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Maddala and Wu (1999 Maddala , G. , Wu , S. ( 1999 ). A comparative study of unit root tests with panel data and a new simple test . Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 61 ( S1 ): 631 – 652 .[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]) to the panel cointegration case. The tests are flexible, intuitively appealing, and relatively easy to compute. We investigate the finite sample behavior in a simulation study. Several variants of the tests compare favorably in terms of both size and power with other widely used panel cointegration tests.     

Testing Fractional Order of Long Memory Processes: A Monte Carlo Study

Testing the fractionally integrated order of seasonal and nonseasonal unit roots is quite important for the economic and financial time series modeling. In this article, the widely used Robinson's (1994 Robinson , P. M. ( 1994 ). Efficient tests of nonstationary hypotheses . J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 89 ( 428 ): 1420 – 1437 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) test is applied to various well-known long memory models. Via Monte Carlo experiments, we study and compare the performances of this test using several sample sizes.     

A Monte Carlo Study of Recent Ridge Parameters

A number of procedures have been developed for finding biased estimators of regression parameters. One of these procedures is the ridge regression. In this article, a new approach to obtain the ridge parameter K is suggested and then evaluated by Monte Carlo simulations. A number of different models are investigated for different number of observations, the strength of correlation between the explanatory variables, and distribution of the error terms. The mean squared error (MSE) criterion is used to examine the performance of the proposed estimators when compared with other well-known estimators. Under certain conditions, it is shown that at least one of the proposed estimators have a smaller MSE than the ordinary least squared estimator (OLS) and Hoerl and Kennard (1970a Hoerl , A. E. , Kennard , R. W. ( 1970a ). Ridge regression: biased estimation for non-orthogonal problems . Technometrics 12 : 55 – 67 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) estimator (HK).     

Some Modifications for Choosing Ridge Parameters

Standard least square regression can produce estimates having a large mean squares error (MSE) when predictor variables are highly correlated or multicollinear. In this article, we propose four modifications to choose the ridge parameter (K) when multicollinearity exists among the columns of the design matrix. The proposed new estimators are extended versions of that suggested by Khalaf and Shukur (2005 Khalaf , G. , Shukur , G. ( 2005 ). Choosing ridge parameter for regression problems . Commun. Statist. A 34 : 1177 – 1182 . [CSA] [Taylor & Francis Online] , [Google Scholar]). The properties of these estimators are compared with those of Hoerl and Kennard (1970a Hoerl , A. E. , Kennard , R. W. ( 1970a ). Ridge regression: biased estimation for non-orthogonal problems . Tech. . 12 : 55 – 67 . [CSA] [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and the OLS using the MSE criterion. All estimators under consideration are evaluated using simulation techniques under certain conditions where a number of factors that may affect their properties have been varied. In addition, it is shown that at least one of the proposed estimators either has a smaller MSE than the others or is the next best otherwise.     

Multivariate Stochastic Volatility via Wishart Processes: A Comment

This comment refers to an error in the methodology for estimating the parameters of the model developed by Philipov and Glickman for modeling multivariate stochastic volatility via Wishart processes. For estimation they used Bayesian techniques. The derived expressions for the full conditionals of the model parameters as well as the expression for the acceptance ratio of the covariance matrix are erroneous. In this erratum all necessary formulae are given to guarantee an appropriate implementation and application of the model.     

Addressing misclassification for binary data: probit and t-link regressions

Generalized linear models are addressed to describe the dependence of data on explanatory variables when the binary outcome is subject to misclassification. Both probit and t-link regressions for misclassified binary data under Bayesian methodology are proposed. The computational difficulties have been avoided by using data augmentation. The idea of using a data augmentation framework (with two types of latent variables) is exploited to derive efficient Gibbs sampling and expectation–maximization algorithms. Besides, this formulation has allowed to obtain the probit model as a particular case of the t-link model. Simulation examples are presented to illustrate the model performance when comparing with standard methods that do not consider misclassification. In order to show the potential of the proposed approaches, a real data problem arising when studying hearing loss caused by exposure to occupational noise is analysed.     

Interval estimators for reliability: the bivariate normal case

This paper proposes procedures to provide confidence intervals (CIs) for reliability in stress–strength models, considering the particular case of a bivariate normal set-up. The suggested CIs are obtained by employing either asymptotic variances of maximum-likelihood estimators or a bootstrap procedure. The coverage and the accuracy of these intervals are empirically checked through a simulation study and compared with those of another proposal in the literature. An application to real data is provided.     

A weighted bootstrap approach to bootstrap iteration

The operation of resampling from a bootstrap resample, encountered in applications of the double bootstrap, maybe viewed as resampling directly from the sample but using probability weights that are proportional to the numbers of times that sample values appear in the resample. This suggests an approximate approach to double-bootstrap Monte Carlo simulation, where weighted bootstrap methods are used to circumvent much of the labour involved in compounded Monte Carlo approximation. In the case of distribution estimation or, equivalently, confidence interval calibration, the new method may be used to reduce the computational labour. Moreover, the method produces the same order of magnitude of coverage error for confidence intervals, or level error for hypothesis tests, as a full application of the double bootstrap.     

Approximate inference in heteroskedastic regressions: A numerical evaluation

The commonly made assumption that all stochastic error terms in the linear regression model share the same variance (homoskedasticity) is oftentimes violated in practical applications, especially when they are based on cross-sectional data. As a precaution, a number of practitioners choose to base inference on the parameters that index the model on tests whose statistics employ asymptotically correct standard errors, i.e. standard errors that are asymptotically valid whether or not the errors are homoskedastic. In this paper, we use numerical integration methods to evaluate the finite-sample performance of tests based on different (alternative) heteroskedasticity-consistent standard errors. Emphasis is placed on a few recently proposed heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimators. Overall, the results favor the HC4 and HC5 heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors. We also consider the use of restricted residuals when constructing asymptotically valid standard errors. Our results show that the only test that clearly benefits from such a strategy is the HC0 test.     

Stationary bootstrapping for realized covariations of high frequency financial data

This paper studies the stationary bootstrap applicability for realized covariations of high frequency asynchronous financial data. The stationary bootstrap method, which is characterized by a block-bootstrap with random block length, is applied to estimate the integrated covariations. The bootstrap realized covariance, bootstrap realized regression coefficient and bootstrap realized correlation coefficient are proposed, and the validity of the stationary bootstrapping for them is established both for large sample and for finite sample. Consistencies of bootstrap distributions are established, which provide us valid stationary bootstrap confidence intervals. The bootstrap confidence intervals do not require a consistent estimator of a nuisance parameter arising from nonsynchronous unequally spaced sampling while those based on a normal asymptotic theory require a consistent estimator. A Monte-Carlo comparison reveals that the proposed stationary bootstrap confidence intervals have better coverage probabilities than those based on normal approximation.     

MARS as an alternative approach of Gaussian graphical model for biochemical networks

The Gaussian graphical model (GGM) is one of the well-known modelling approaches to describe biological networks under the steady-state condition via the precision matrix of data. In literature there are different methods to infer model parameters based on GGM. The neighbourhood selection with the lasso regression and the graphical lasso method are the most common techniques among these alternative estimation methods. But they can be computationally demanding when the system's dimension increases. Here, we suggest a non-parametric statistical approach, called the multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) as an alternative of GGM. To compare the performance of both models, we evaluate the findings of normal and non-normal data via the specificity, precision, F-measures and their computational costs. From the outputs, we see that MARS performs well, resulting in, a plausible alternative approach with respect to GGM in the construction of complex biological systems.     

Modified Ridge Parameters for Seemingly Unrelated Regression Model

In this article, we modify a number of new biased estimators of seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) parameters which are developed by Alkhamisi and Shukur (2008 Alkhamisi , M. A. , Shukur , G. ( 2008 ). Developing ridge parameters for SUR model . Commun. Statist. Theor. Meth. 37 ( 4 ): 544 – 564 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), AS, when the explanatory variables are affected by multicollinearity. Nine estimators of the ridge parameters have been modified and compared in terms of the trace mean squared error (TMSE) and (PR) criterion. The results from this extended study are the also compared with those founded by AS. A simulation study has been conducted to compare the performance of the modified estimators of the ridge parameters. The results showed that under certain conditions the performance of the multivariate ridge regression estimators based on SUR ridge R _MSmax is superior to other estimators in terms of TMSE and PR criterion. In large samples and when the collinearity between the explanatory variables is not high, the unbiased SUR, estimator produces a smaller TMSEs.     

Testing for linearity in Markov switching models: a bootstrap approach

Testing for linearity in the context of Markov switching models is complicated because standard regularity conditions for likelihood based inference are violated. In particular, under the null hypothesis of linearity, some parameters are not identified and scores are identically zero. Thus, the asymptotic distribution of the relevant test statistic does not possess the standard χ ²-distribution. A bootstrap resampling scheme to approximate the distribution of the relevant test statistic under the null of linearity is proposed. The procedure is relatively easy to program and computation requirements are reasonable. The performance of the bootstrap-based test is investigated by means of Monte Carlo simulations. Results show that this test works well and outperforms the Hansen test and the Carrasco et al. test.     

Linear and nonlinear causality tests in an LSTAR model: wavelet decomposition in a nonlinear environment

In this paper, we use simulated data to investigate the power of different causality tests in a two-dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) model. The data are presented in a nonlinear environment that is modelled using a logistic smooth transition autoregressive function. We use both linear and nonlinear causality tests to investigate the unidirection causality relationship and compare the power of these tests. The linear test is the commonly used Granger causality F test. The nonlinear test is a non-parametric test based on Baek and Brock [A general test for non-linear Granger causality: Bivariate model. Tech. Rep., Iowa State University and University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI, 1992] and Hiemstra and Jones [Testing for linear and non-linear Granger causality in the stock price–volume relation, J. Finance 49(5) (1994), pp. 1639–1664]. When implementing the nonlinear test, we use separately the original data, the linear VAR filtered residuals, and the wavelet decomposed series based on wavelet multiresolution analysis. The VAR filtered residuals and the wavelet decomposition series are used to extract the nonlinear structure of the original data. The simulation results show that the non-parametric test based on the wavelet decomposition series (which is a model-free approach) has the highest power to explore the causality relationship in nonlinear models.     

Developing a Liu estimator for the negative binomial regression model: method and application

This paper introduces a new shrinkage estimator for the negative binomial regression model that is a generalization of the estimator proposed for the linear regression model by Liu [A new class of biased estimate in linear regression, Comm. Stat. Theor. Meth. 22 (1993), pp. 393–402]. This shrinkage estimator is proposed in order to solve the problem of an inflated mean squared error of the classical maximum likelihood (ML) method in the presence of multicollinearity. Furthermore, the paper presents some methods of estimating the shrinkage parameter. By means of Monte Carlo simulations, it is shown that if the Liu estimator is applied with these shrinkage parameters, it always outperforms ML. The benefit of the new estimation method is also illustrated in an empirical application. Finally, based on the results from the simulation study and the empirical application, a recommendation regarding which estimator of the shrinkage parameter that should be used is given.     

A Comparison of Significance Testing Procedures for the Intraclass Correlation from Family Data

Different procedures for testing problems concerning intraclass correlation from familial data are considered in the case of varying number of siblings per family. Under the assumption of multivariate normality, the hypotheses that the intraclass correlation is equal to a specified value are tested. To assess the performance of the tests, Monte Carlo simulations are designed to compare their powers. The Neyman's (1959) C(α) test and the test based on the modified ANOVA F statistic are shown to be consistently more powerful than other procedures.