Public Policy Implications of Elderly Interstate Migration to Oregon, 1985-1990

Abstract

Several Oregon counties received a noticeable influx of elderly migrants from other states during the 1980s. Oregon policy regarding taxes, land use, and long-term care is examined for possible influence on migration. Models of elderly migration are examined for insight into how public policy influences migration, and previous research regarding the effects of elderly migration on public policy is reviewed. Data regarding disability and financial vulnerability among elderly by migration status are analyzed for possible influence upon public policy.

Change in the population aged 65 and older mirrored state and national patterns for 1980 to 1990 and 1990 to 1999. Interstate elderly arriving in attractive counties reported a low prevalence of disability and financial vulnerability, indicating a low risk of demanding public assistance. Interstate elderly arriving in population centers reported a relatively high prevalence of disability but a low prevalence of financial vulnerability. This may suggest that Oregon's long-term care policy influenced elderly migration.     

Changes in health, mortality, and disability and their impact on long-term care needs

The need for long-term care is driven both by the growth of the elderly population and changes in the age relations of morbidity, disability, and mortality. Data show these relations changed in the U.S. elderly population from 1982 to 1989. Chronic disability prevalence declined between the 1982 and 1989 U.S. National Long Term Care Surveys. Among those impaired, many persons using personal assistance to meet their needs shifted to the use of assisted housing and special equipment. The relation of these trends to other changes--such as the increasing educational level of the elderly population--is examined to estimate how future changes in disability and morbidity may affect the demand for long-term care. Disabilities at specific times as well as their transition rates were examined to determine how long individuals need long-term care. The analyses suggest that, while the amount of long-term care services needed will increase rapidly, the types and amounts of services used by the U.S. elderly population will undergo significant change.     

Changes in Health,Mortality, and Disability and Their Impact on Long-Term Care Needs

The need for long-term care is driven both by the growth of the elderly population and changes in the age relations of morbidity, disability, and mortality. Data show these relations changed in the U.S. elderly population from 1982 to 1989. Chronic disability prevalence declined between the 1982 and 1989 U.S. National Long Term Care Surveys. knong those impaired, many persons using personal assistance to meet their needs shifted to the use of assisted housing and special equipment. The relation of these trends to other changes-such as the increasing educational level of thc elderly population-is examined to estimate how future changes in disability and morbidity may affect the demand for long-term care. Disabilities at specific times as well as their transition rates were examined to determine how long individuals need long-term care. The analyses suggest that, while the amount of long-term care services needed will increase rapidly, the types and amounts of services used by the U.S. elderly population will undergo significant change.     

失能老年人长期护理的需求规模评估、费用测算与经济效应预测

伴随着失能风险的增加,老年人长期护理问题成为人口老龄化研究的新课题.基于CHARLS等相关数据,改进Markov模型,测算2020—2060年失能老年人长期护理需求规模及费用,并预测经济效应,结果表明:(1)老年人数量呈倒"U"形增长趋势,并于2048年左右达到顶峰,约为4.34亿人;失能老年人呈逐年上升趋势,于2060年达到1.84亿人.(2)失能老年人长期护理费用由2020年的3906.57亿元增长到2060年的44973.16亿元,增长11.51倍,其中轻度、中度和重度失能老年人长期护理费用分别增长8.92倍、15.55倍和21.17倍.(3)老年护理劳动力需求量预测显示,由90.33万人上升到228.98万人,增长2.54倍;机构养老护理型床位需求量预测显示,由241.03万张增长到553.11万张,增长2.29倍;老年护理市场直接经济增量预测显示,由3906.57亿元增长到44973.16亿元,增长11.51倍.基于此,本文提出包括坚持"以制度为基础、以服务为核心、以救助为兜底、以法律为准绳"的基本原则,建立失能动态监控机制,完善养老服务财政补贴制度等政策建议.     

A Budget Proposal for China’s Public Long-Term Care Policy

Long-term care (LTC) policy is at an experimental stage in China, characterized by various regional pilot programs. The public cost of LTC is difficult to estimate due to a lack of clarity about policy detail from the central government. This article analyzes the current disabled status for vulnerable older people without sufficient financial resources and family supports. It focuses on estimating a safety net public subsidy policy for LTC services in China, both for today and into the future, using China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey (CHARLS) data, 2011 wave, with the methods of multinomial logistic regression and simulation. The key contribution is to estimate the future disability trend and LTC public cost based on changes in education, population ageing, and urbanization. Disability prevalence might be decreasing partly due to higher education, urbanization, and better health care, and the overall public LTC costs might be growing by the results of projection.     

Future of Long-Term Care Financing for the Elderly in Korea

ABSTRACT

With rapid aging, change in family structure, and the increase in the labor participation of women, the demand for long-term care has been increasing in Korea. Inappropriate utilization of medical care by the elderly in health care institutions, such as social admissions, also puts a financial burden on the health insurance system. The widening gap between the need for long-term care and the capacity of welfare programs to fulfill that need, along with a rather new national pension scheme and the limited economic capacity of the elderly, calls for a new public financing mechanism to provide protection for a broader range of old people from the costs of long-term care. Many important decisions are yet to be made, although Korea is likely to introduce social insurance for long-term care rather than tax-based financing, following the tradition of social health insurance. Whether it should cover only the elderly long-term care or all types of long-term care including disability of all age groups will have a critical impact on social solidarity and the financial sustainability of the new long-term care insurance. Generosity of benefits or the level of out-of-pocket payment, the role of cash benefits, and the relation with health insurance scheme all should be taken into account in the design of a new financing scheme. Lack of care personnel and facilities is also a barrier to the implementation of public long-term care financing in Korea, and the implementation strategy needs to be carved out carefully.     

Future of long-term care financing for the elderly in Korea

With rapid aging, change in family structure, and the increase in the labor participation of women, the demand for long-term care has been increasing in Korea. Inappropriate utilization of medical care by the elderly in health care institutions, such as social admissions, also puts a financial burden on the health insurance system. The widening gap between the need for long-term care and the capacity of welfare programs to fulfill that need, along with a rather new national pension scheme and the limited economic capacity of the elderly, calls for a new public financing mechanism to provide protection for a broader range of old people from the costs of long-term care. Many important decisions are yet to be made, although Korea is likely to introduce social insurance for long-term care rather than tax-based financing, following the tradition of social health insurance. Whether it should cover only the elderly longterm care or all types of long-term care including disability of all age groups will have a critical impact on social solidarity and the financial sustainability of the new long-term care insurance. Generosity of benefits or the level of out-of-pocket payment, the role of cash benefits, and the relation with health insurance scheme all should be taken into account in the design of a new financing scheme. Lack of care personnel and facilities is also a barrier to the implementation of public long-term care financing in Korea, and the implementation strategy needs to be carved out carefully.     

The Malaysian state's response to migration

This paper aims to provide a profile of migration trends in Malaysia since 1970 and to analyze public policy on migration in the context of economic growth and the labor market. The discussion centers on the impact of the Asian financial crisis. There is long history of immigration to Malaysia. The development strategy of the 1970s and 1980s was to create more jobs and restructure employment to meet equity goals. Labor shortages on plantations and construction booms led to a more organized, sustained effort to import labor. Recession in the mid-1980s led to unemployment, but many Malaysians were unwilling to work on plantations, in construction, or in low paying jobs. Economic growth during 1987-96 was very high, and labor shortages spread to service and manufacturing sectors. Migration policy has shifted over the decades. Both the market and the government's promotion of export-based industrialization require access to low cost migrant labor. Public and official recognition of the large number of migrants was not made until 1995. The financial crisis in 1998 led to enforcement of a new migration policy on illegal migrants and greater outflow of migrants. The economic crisis has increased job and income inequities in the region; this encourages continued migration. It is argued that it would be best for Malaysia to maximize short-term gains while minimizing long-term economic, social, and political costs.     

Long-term care policy for the elderly in the Zaporozhye region of Ukraine: a case study of social development following the collapse of Communism

In this paper, we review the status of social policy for the elderly in Ukraine since the fall of Communism and the breakup of the Soviet Union. We specifically address the problem of "rebuilding" an income and services policy for the at-risk elderly after the unraveling of the system that existed prior to the fall of Communism. Also, we address some existing problems faced by the elderly in the health care system. Within this context, we present a case study of the current status of long-term care policy for the elderly in one province of Ukraine, the eastern province of Zaporozhye, encompassing the industrial city of Zaporozhye on the Dnieper River. This case study particularly pays attention to current attempts to promote a social development process of long-term care services for the elderly. It examines recent developments with respect to public sector organizations and voluntary sector organizations that are trying to provide necessary services to the needy elderly. With respect to the voluntary sector, the paper pays particular attention to the American Jewish Joint Distribution Committee (JDC) model of a largely externally funded NGO that provides comprehensive and integrated social supports, while emphasizing local empowerment and the use of volunteers, for the needy Jewish population in the province of Zaporozhye. Based on our findings, we make some proposals regarding the improvement of income and services policy with respect to the elderly in Zaporozhye and Ukraine.     

Danish home care policy and the family: implications for the United States

This paper provides an overview of reforms in Danish long-term care initiated in the early 1980s, describes the relationship between elder care in Denmark and the family, and considers implications for U.S. policy. The success of Denmark's community-based experimentation with new models of home care and housing for the elderly resulted in a national decision to eliminate new construction of nursing homes and increase access to publicly funded home care. Lingering concern that the provision of paid assistance for the elderly could undermine family structure is allayed by the findings of a recent survey: Three-fourths of the elderly report seeing their children on a weekly or more frequent basis. Findings from the Danish experience provide evidence that community-based services can aid family caregivers, enable the frail elderly to live in the setting of their choice, and be cost-effective from a public policy perspective.     

The Recent Revival of Widespread Population Growth in Nonmetropolitan Areas of the United States1

Abstract Population growth was widespread in nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) areas of the United States during the early 1990s. More than 64 percent of the 2,277 nonmetro counties gained population between 1990 and 1992, compared with only 45 percent in the 1980s. The nonmetro population still grew at a slower pace than did the metropolitan population, but the gap was much narrower than during the 1980s. Net migration gains accounted for 43 percent of the total estimated nonmetro population increase of 879,000 between 1990 and 1992. These findings suggest it is premature to conclude that the renewed population growth in nonmetro areas first noted in the 1970s has ended.     

High incidence of disability pension with a psychiatric diagnosis in western Sweden. A population-based study from 1980 to 1998

Regional differences in Sweden in the prevalence of disability pension with a psychiatric diagnosis are unexplained, in spite of the significant impact on the population's health, rehabilitation systems, and the health care system. The purpose of this study was to describe the pattern of disability pensions with a psychiatric diagnosis and to analyze the impact of age and gender. We examined the incidence rates in one urban and one semi-rural region and compared these to national rates. The study sample was drawn from employed persons between 16-64 years of age who, because of their sickness insurance coverage, would be eligible to access disability pensions should it be necessary. Analysis of annual incidences and standardized morbidity ratios were made for 1980, 1985, 1990, 1995, and 1998. Data on disability pension cases were collected from the National Social Insurance registers. In the urban region we found that the proportion of men and women clearly outnumbered the national average: approximately twice the number of persons between 16-64 years of age with a psychiatric diagnosis were receiving a disability pension. In the semi-rural region there were fewer men overall on disability pensions with psychiatric disorders, but in 1980, 1985, and 1995 women clearly outnumbered men. Access to psychiatric care, unemployment, alcohol dependence, and previous sickness absence are suggested as possible factors that might affect the rates of disability pension in different geographical settings.     

Finding the vulnerable among China’s elderly: identifying measures for effective policy targeting

Facing a rapidly aging population, China has recently started to formulate and implement policies with the aim to provide old-age care. While well-developed old-age care policies commonly include a built-in component that assesses eligibility based on vulnerability, no such process is established in the context of China. Here, based on data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study collected in both 2011 and 2013, we (a) developed a simple and effective strategy for identifying vulnerable Chinese elderly, which can serve as a basis for policy targeting, and (b) improved the policy relevance and targeting efficiency of this vulnerability measure by including additional health indicators. Our vulnerability measures identify 35% to 46% of Chinese elderly as vulnerable, covering up to 67% of elderly at high risk of death or functional decline. They can serve as an initial screening step for more comprehensive geriatric assessments and enable policy makers to effectively target vulnerable elderly persons in China.     

Long-Term Care Policy: Singapore’s Experience

Singapore, like many developed countries, is facing the challenge of a rapidly aging population and the increasing need to provide long-term care (LTC) services for elderly in the community. The Singapore government’s philosophy on care for the elderly is that the family should be the first line of support, and it has relied on voluntary welfare organizations (VWOs) or charities for the bulk of LTC service provision. For LTC financing, it has emphasized the principles of co-payment and targeting of state support to the low-income population through means-tested government subsidies. It has also instituted ElderShield, a national severe disability insurance scheme. This paper discusses some of the challenges facing LTC policy in Singapore, particularly the presence of perverse financial incentives for hospitalization, the pitfalls of over-reliance on VWOs, and the challenges facing informal family caregivers. It discusses the role of private LTC insurance in LTC financing, bearing in mind demand- and supply-side failures that have plagued the private LTC insurance market. It suggests the need for more standardized needs assessment and portable LTC benefits, with reference to the Japanese Long-Term Care Insurance program, and also discusses the need to provide more support to informal family caregivers.     

Nonmetropolitan Population Change in the Mountain West: 1970–1995

Abstract Current research on nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) population change shows that, to date, the 1990s are reminiscent of the 1970s rather than the 1980s. Nonmetro areas, including the Mountain West, are again gaining population through increases in net migration. Over the past several years, subareas within the Mountain West have experienced some of the fastest rates of population growth and economic expansion in the United States. Current growth patterns in the Mountain West are distinct from those in both the 1970s “rural renaissance” and the 1980s “nonmetro contraction” periods. Nonmetro counties in the Mountain West are growing at about the same rate as metropolitan (metro) counties, and although the growth rate is slower now than in the 1970s, more counties are participating in the growth. These findings support earlier research suggesting that nonmetro growth may not be ending.     

Changing Income Inequality in Nonmetropolitan Counties, 1980 to 1990*

Abstract Income inequality has been increasing across the United States, but little is known about changing income inequality in nonmetropolitan counties. Data from the 1980 and 1990 Summary Tape Files of the U.S. Census of Population and Housing are used to estimate ordinary least squares models of change in income inequality. Household income inequality increased in a smaller share of nonmetro than metro counties from 1980 to 1990, and increases in income inequality were influenced more strongly by economic restructuring in nonmetro than in metro counties. Other factors, such as change in household structure, demographic composition, and labor supply and job quality, were generally similar in affecting income inequality in nonmetro and metro counties. The greater importance of economic restructuring in nonmetro counties indicates the lesser diversity and smaller size of local economies, and their greater vulnerability to forces of economic restructuring.     

Nonmetropolitan Residential Segregation Revisited

Abstract Nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) residential segregation in 1990 and change in the preceding decade have received insufficient attention. A set of empirical hypotheses are derived and assessed using nonmetro and metropolitan (metro) counties in Texas. Places in nonmetro counties were more segregated than places in metro counties in 1990 as in 1980. Substantial declines in segregation occurred in both nonmetro and metro places but were largest in growing places in nonmetro counties. An analysis controlling for other determinants of segregation supports the premise that population change was a major determinant of 1980–1990 change in segregation. Implications for nonmetro areas in the 1990s are discussed.     

Experiences of vulnerability due to loss of support by aged parents of emigrated children: a hermeneutic literature review

ABSTRACT

In disrupted families due to migration individual members support each other through transnational care. The care is often reciprocal as the members who are left behind support the members who emigrated and in return receive care from the emigrated family members. Aged parents who get left behind, however, often become vulnerable. The hermeneutic literature review shows that social, psychological or emotional and economic vulnerability are experienced. They have to deal with cultural challenges as their children form part of a new culture in their receiving country. Strong feelings of loss, helplessness and loneliness are experienced. The emigration of their children may also contribute to the financial vulnerability of the elderly.     

Disability and mortgage default: an Australian study

Debates on human rights and discrimination regarding housing and disability need to emphasise community care and inclusion as principles for improving policy. A qualitative study of Australian mortgage default reveals special difficulties for households with a member with a disability; that is, illness, impairment or injury limiting everyday activities and enduring for several months. Interviews showed that such households adopted similar strategies to other mortgagors with serious financial difficulties but tended to have fewer and less attractive options. Given the crisis in Australian disability welfare services and the 2010–2011 Productivity Commission inquiry recommending major reforms, these findings can inform policy.     

Defining the challenges of providing long-term care: the case of the nursing home industry's response to the AIDS epidemic

Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) is now viewed as a chronic disease requiring long-term management. As a result, more persons with AIDS (PWAs) are seeking long-term care in facilities that have primarily served the elderly. In some regions, however, the nursing home market into which PWAs may introduce new demand is a market already characterized by excess demand. In light of this, competition for limited long-term care resources may develop between the frail elderly and PWAs. The nursing home industry has raised many issues regarding the feasibility of admitting AIDS patients as residents, but little is known about how important these issues are in deciding admissions policy. How the industry perceives and resolves the concerns it has regarding delivery of care to PWAs can affect the overall long-term care system and thus affect the traditional users-the frail elderly. Knowing the concerns and preferences of the industry may help guide and anticipate future changes in the system. In this pilot study, a random sample of 250 nursing home administrators in the five highest AIDS-incidence areas in the United States was surveyed to determine (1) the industry's concerns and issues regarding AIDS care, (2) data regarding requests for admission by PWAs to nursing homes, and (3) data concerning the industry's preferred way of delivering AIDS care. Important admissions policy issues cited by the respondents included the ability to meet special care needs, costs of care, and inadequate reimbursement. The majority also believed the most appropriate methods of providing care were special care units for AIDS within nursing homes or dedicated HIV/AIDS nursing facilities.