人口流动家庭化及其影响因素——以北京市为例

文章基于2006年北京市1‰流动人口抽样调查,考察北京市流动人口的家庭模式及其流动家庭化的影响因素。调查结果显示,北京市流动人口的家庭化率已达到60%。流动人口家庭模式是以一对夫妻户和一对夫妻加孩子户为主的核心家庭为主导,以一代户和二代户为主。3/4的已婚流动人口携带了配偶,有孩子的流动人口中有一半携带了孩子,这些孩子中有近20%是在北京出生的。流动人口的平均家庭规模为2人,明显小于全国农村的平均家庭规模(3.4人)。流动人口的个人特征及在京居住地显著影响人口流动家庭化,同时还发现非经济因素成为比经济因素更为重要的人口流动家庭化影响因素。     

Long-term multivariate prediction of migration patterns

In- and out-migration rates of 56 Israeli cities with a population of over 5000 were predicted for a five-year period (1977–1981), on the basis of four 1976 social indicators: crime rate, percent unemployment, population size and distance from a major metropolitan center. Rather than employ independent correlation coefficients, the four indicators were entered as predictors into regression equations with in- and out-migration rates serving as the dependent variable. The analytic methods are compared and the clear advantages of the regression method emerge. None of the indicators reliably predicted in-migration. Crime consistently predicted out-migration. Distance and unemployment each entered into three of the prediction models.     

Mobility,Perceptions of Quality of Life and Neighbourhood Stability in Saskatoon

Why people move, their well-being or self-assessed quality of life and the impact that this has on the stability of neighbourhoods are linked in many ways. One of the expected outcomes related to the attachment to and meaning of place is the level of intra-urban mobility by individuals and families. Those who have negative or neutral feelings towards the place they reside are expected to experience a greater level of intra-urban mobility. The objective of this paper is to examine the relationship between residential mobility and perceived well-being or self-assessed quality of life in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan across three clusters of neighbourhoods representing different socio-economic status (SES) (low, middle and high). The paper begins with a review of the literature on residential mobility and highlights concepts such as the life-cycle, social cohesion and social isolation. It employs data from three sources: a telephone survey collected from residents in 2001, a series of face-to-face interviews and 2001 Census data. The data are analysed statistically using a mixed model approach. The results show that mobility is an important feature of Saskatoon, and that a significant difference exists in the length of residency among the three neighbourhood clusters. However, the analysis indicates that there is no relationship between residential mobility and well-being as measured by self-reported quality of life and health.     

Analyzing migration decisions: the first step-whose decisions?

Many theories of geographic mobility assume that the change-of-residence process includes a substantial degree of choice. This paper classifies stated reasons for moving from the 1973 through 1977 Annual Housing Survey into forced, imposed, and preference-dominated categories. About 25 percent of residential mobility and 40 percent of migration occurred under conditions of substantial constraint. Mobility was most often constrained by family dynamics; for migration, occupational relocations frequently imposed the decision-to-move process and determined destinations. The volume of constrained movement indicates that its impact upon individuals, population dynamics, and voluntaristic theories of mobility deserves greater consideration.     

Influence of Proximity to Kin on Residential Mobility and Destination Choice: Examining Local Movers in Metropolitan Areas

A growing body of research has examined how family dynamics shape residential mobility, highlighting the social—as opposed to economic—drivers of mobility. However, few studies have examined kin ties as both push and pull factors in mobility processes or revealed how the influence of kin ties on mobility varies across sociodemographic groups. Using data on local residential moves from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) from 1980 to 2013, we find that location of noncoresident kin influences the likelihood of moving out of the current neighborhood and the selection of a new destination neighborhood. Analyses of out-mobility reveal that parents and young adult children living near each other as well as low-income adult children living near parents are especially deterred from moving. Discrete-choice models of neighborhood selection indicate that movers are particularly drawn to neighborhoods close to aging parents, white and higher-income households tend to move close to parents and children, and lower-income households tend to move close to extended family. Our results highlight the social and economic trade-offs that households face when making residential mobility decisions, which have important implications for broader patterns of inequality in residential attainment.     

Mobile Ungleichheiten. Eine sozial- und infrastrukturelle Differenzierung des Mobilitätstheorems

The core claim of the Mobilities Paradigm which understands the social as constituted through movement also implies, that mobility emerges from socially and spatially structured situations and therefore, mobility cannot be derived from individual properties alone. With the aim of translating the stratifying dimension adequately into methods, the contribution presents an international comparative correspondence analysis searching for specific patterns of residential migration and commuting distances of couple households.     

Housing Discrimination and Residential Mobility: Impacts for Blacks and Whites

We merge metropolitan-level measures of racial discrimination in housing markets derived from two national housing audit studies, along with tract-level 1980 census data, with the 1979-1985 waves of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics to examine the impact of housing discrimination on patterns of residential mobility between neighborhoods of varying racial composition. We find no evidence that housing discrimination in the metropolitan area impedes African Americans' mobility into whiter neighborhoods. Contrary to expectations, in multivariate analyses based on black movers, the level of housing discrimination is positively associated with the percentage of the population that is white in the tract of destination. Housing discrimination against African Americans is positively associated with the rate at which mobile white households move into whiter census tracts. These findings imply that eliminating racial discrimination by real estate and rental agents will fail to increase black residential mobility into racially-mixed and predominantly white neighborhoods. For both black and white households, life-cycle factors, such as age, children, and home ownership, impede mobility out of the current neighborhood. Conditional upon moving, socioeconomic resources, such as education and income, facilitate mobility into whiter neighborhoods.     

流动人口群体特征变动与失业风险差异

本文采用2014年和2017年流动人口动态监测数据,探讨了中国省际流动人口失业风险的变动趋势以及影响因素.研究发现:2017年省际流动人口失业风险比2014年高出26％.性别、受教育程度、流动原因、流入地地域等变量对流动人口失业风险的边际影响出现了明显上升趋势.Oaxaca分解结果表明,流动人口失业风险上升的63.67...     

人口“乡-城”流动下城镇失业保险基金支出预测：以西安市为例

本文运用人口发展方程与回归预测方法建立了人口“乡-城”流动规模测算模型。根据社会保障精算原理构建了人口“乡-城”流动下的失业保险基金支出测算模型;在此基础上,对2009—2020年西安市失业保险基金支出额进行了预测,结果表明,西安市失业保险基金支出总量年均递增12．93％,由2．67亿元增长到10．19亿元,其中,由“乡-城”人口流动引发的失业保险基金支出额从1232．75万元增长到2．58亿元。年均递增31．85％。     

Racial residential segregation in the sun belt

In recent years demographic researchers have devoted considerable attention to two topics: (1) migration to the sun belt and (2) racial and economic transformation of neighborhoods. This study addresses both, and develops a theoretical and analytical model to test the relationship of intra-urban and inter-urban migration patterns as they relate to race and social class. The study measures and analyzes patterns of racial and economic transition in neighborhoods for two Oklahoma SMSAs. Comparisons are made between differential degrees of residential segregation accounted for by in-migrants, utilizing U.S. Census tracts for 1970 and 1980. The model, once specified and evaluated, demonstrates that patterns and factors traditionally associated with residential segregation may have less relevance forsun belt cities in the coming decades.     

Climate change and internal migration intentions in the forest-savannah transition zone of Ghana

Migration is at the centre of demographic research on the population–environment nexus. Increasing concerns about the impacts of environmental events on human population are fuelling interest on the relationship between migration and environmental change. Using data from the Climate Change Collective Learning and Observatory Network Ghana project, we employ binary logistic regression to examine migration intentions of households in response to major community stressors including climate-related ones. The results indicate that the type of community stressor that affects households most does not differentiate migration intentions in Ghana’s forest-savannah transition zone: Even though the majority of the respondents mentioned climate-related events as the stressor that affects them the most, such events do not appear to directly explain migration intentions. However, socio-demographic factors such as age, household size and current migration status are significant predictors of migration intentions, with younger household heads, heads of migrant households and heads of smaller households being relatively more likely to have migration intentions than other household heads. We conclude that migration drivers are multifaceted and deserve further research because even in areas with perceived environmental stress, climate-related events may not be the primary motivation for migration intentions.     

Household access to capital and its effects on drought adaptation and migration: a case study of rural Alberta in the 1930s

This article reports findings from an empirical study of the impacts of drought on rural households in southeastern Alberta, Canada during the 1930s. In that decade, extreme summer heat conditions and low precipitation levels led to repeated crop failures. These extreme climatic conditions coincided with economic recession, falling commodity prices, and rising unemployment to create widespread hardship and suffering across the rural population. Thousands of households adapted by leaving the drought-stricken region and migrating to more northerly regions unaffected by drought, often suffering still further hardship as they reestablished themselves in a new environment. Through secondary research of historical documents and interviews with surviving migrants and non-migrants, this study identifies how economic, human, and social capital influenced the adaptive capacity, adaptation decisions, and migration behavior of rural households and describes how institutional responses affected household adaptation. Differential access to capital in its various forms was a key factor that distinguished households that adapted via migration from those that did not. The findings from this study of historical environment-related population change provide insights that enhance our broader understanding of potential future migration responses to the impacts of anthropogenic climate change and important considerations for policy-makers and planners seeking to build adaptive capacity in rural populations.     

Mobility and adjustments: Paths to the resolution of residential stress

In theory, residential mobility is a response to environmental stress only if households do not reduce dissatisfaction through other alternatives, such as housing improvements or repairs. Despite the attention given to stress-reducing alternatives, however, no attempt has been made to test empirically the residential satisfaction model with adjustments. Using data from the Annual Housing Survey: 1978-1981, I model three stages in the mobility process and investigate potential sources of specification error in previous tests. Blocks of family cycle, background/action state, and location/housing variables are shown to affect adjusting significantly. Residential satisfaction strongly affects mobility preferences; and all theoretically relevant blocks of explanatory variables predict mobility. Alternatives to mobility should be included in the residential satisfaction model.     

Determinants of short- and long-term mobility expectations for home owners and renters

Confusion about the role of residential satisfaction vis-à-vis structural factors in the mobility process stems from the failure to examine the determinants of mobility over varying time frames and housing tenures. Using survey data for a random sample of 580 Phoenix-area households, we test models of short-term (1 year) and long-term (5 years) mobility expectations for home owners and renters. The results show that residential satisfaction mediates the effects of structural variables on mobility expectations in the short term for home owners. In the long-term model for home owners and the short-term model for renters, the role of satisfaction as an intervening force declines in relative importance. Among renters, structural variables operate directly on long-term mobility expectations.     

Associations between overseas,intra-urban and internal migration dynamics in Sydney, 1976–91

Between 1976 and 1991 metropolitan Sydney experienced unprecedented internal migration losses to other states and coastal regions of New South Wales. Levels of overseas immigration were also high and housing costs increased markedly, especially between 1986 and 1991. This paper investigates spatial statistical associations between overseas in-migration rates and internal migration loss within Sydney and between housing costs in Sydney and internal migration outflows. The hypothesis was that housing cost changes and overseas migration contributed additively to migration losses from the metropolis. A complementary analysis of the relationship between migration and housing cost changes is also undertaken. There was a strong positive association between overseas in-migration and intra-urban out-migration and a strong negative spatial association between overseas in-migration and internal out-migration. In consequence, housing cost associations with internal migration loss were found, although not all were in the expected direction. There were stronger associations between housing factors and intra-urban migration. The integration of metropolitan Sydney and Australia into the ‘Pacific rim’ economy is examined with reference to wider explanations of house cost changes and migration flows.     

Community satisfaction,expectations of moving,and migration

A previous residential mobility model (Speare, 1974) assumes an additive relationship between residential satisfaction, desire to move, and mobility. This paper elaborates the model and applies it to intercounty migration. An interaction between community satisfaction and expectations to migrate is hypothesized which distinguishes four groups of decision makers. A survey in Durham, North Carolina and a unique mobility followup over eight years provide the data to test the model and the interaction. Furthermore, using various time periods for identifying migrants offers some methodological insights. Results support Speare’s general formulation but only after the interaction is taken into account. A three-year migration interval is found to be appropriate.     

County town -- jian-zhi town differentials and migration to towns in China

China's urbanization process is unique in having been due to economic systems and migration policies. Towns and townships in rural areas are different from cities in their social and economic characteristics and their structure and function. The urban system in China is initially described with the distinction drawn between cities, "jian-zhi towns", (organic town) which are officially recognized, and rural areas. Analysis is provided f the economic and residential registration status of town residents and migration in northern China. Data were obtained from a 1987 survey of 1314 households in Wongnioute Banner in Inner Mongolia, and a 1985 migration survey of 2089 rural households in 41 villages. The study area was selected because jian-zhi town status was easily obtained and the are needed more towns for local administration and trade; the area was similar in geographic, social, economic, and cultural characteristics to other northern and northwestern regions. The Wongnioute Banner comprises 5 towns (Qiaotou, Wufendi, Hairesu, Wuduentaohai, and Wutonghua) and 1 country town (Wudan). All citizens from birth have an agricultural or nonagricultural status, which can be changed by passing national exams or completing a university education, joining the military and becoming an officer, marrying someone with a nonagricultural status, reunifying the family, or holding a special program. Quotas are set annually for status changes, e.g. in Tibet Autonomous Region the annual quota was 3%. Town residents may have either status. In the sample, 56.6% lived in town and had a nonagricultural status; 17.7% of heads of household town residents had an agricultural status and had stronger ties to villages because of family connections. Commuters are a third group and comprise 8.9%. County towns and jian-zhi towns are grouped the same, but are quite different in population size. Wudan had a population of 27,600 spread over an area of 480 hectares. The jian-zhi towns each had an average population of 1570 and an area of about 150 hectares. Facilities are in greater number and diversity in county towns. Geographic mobility is greater in towns. The productive value of rural town industry increased from 9.2% in 1978 to 25% in 1990 of China's total industrial productive value. The social and economic reforms of the 1980s have encouraged the development of cities and towns, and the labor force and residential patterns are changing.     

A study of migration to Greater Santiago (Chile)

The most significant results of a survey in Greater Santiago in 1962 by the Latin American Demographic Center are presented in this paper. The population studied had slightly more than 2 million inhabitants at the time the survey was taken. A probability sample was drawn and interviews were taken without regard to the migration status of the household. The interview schedules were designed to obtain data on the demographic and social aspects of the migrant as contrasted with the non-migrant population. Migration history, the objective and subjective factors that appear to have "motivated" movement to Santiago, and other aspects oj the migratory move itself were also topics of inquiry.Tabulations of this survey portray Santiago as a city of great in-migration. The flow is estimated to be between 1.5 and 1.7 percent per year. Among the population 15 years of age or over, about 50 percent were found to be migrants from outside the metropolitan area. A high level of flow has been sustained for several decades, for only 60 percent of the total in-migrants have arrived during the last twenty years.Migration to Santiago was found to be selective by sex. For each two male in-migrants there were three female migrants. Migration was also selective by age. During the decade preceding the survey, two-thirds had arrived before attaining their twenty-fifth birthday. Forty-four percent of the men and 51 percent of the women had been between 15 and 29 years of age at time of arrival. The migrants had moved very little before their journey to Santiago. Among those who were 15 years of age or older at the time of migration, more than half had moved directly from their place of birth to Santiago. Prior mobility was slightly higher among persons coming from rural or semiurban origins than among those coming from urban origins.Two-thirds of the in-migrants arrived from urban places (places of 5,000 or more inhabitants in 1952). Despite the fact that in 1952 almost 50 percent of Chile's population outside Santiago was genuinely rural, only 13 percent of the in-migrants came from such origins. The balance came from areas classed as semiurban.The principal motive given for making the move to Santiago was work in 60 percent of the cases. Education was the second most commonly cited principal motive, given by 10 percent. Among those coming from rural and semiurban origins, an even greater proportion claimed work to be the principal motive, while those coming from urban settings were more inclined to report education.The spatial distribution of migrants within the territory of Greater Santiago was studied in four sectors, each with different socioeconomic characteristics. The present distribution, as well as the distribution of first places of residence, indicates that the distribution was more or less proportionate among the sectors and follows the expansion of the metropolitan area. However, a high concentration of migrant women was found in the middle- and upper-class residential sectors. This is probably due to the existence of housemaids in those sectors.Migrants were found to be living in poorer housing than non-migrants-especially for families whose heads were recent migrants(from 1952 to 1962). Among the migrants who had arrived within the last ten years, 30 percent lived in dwellings that lacked the basic services, such as running water, electricity, or sewer. Migrants who had arrived more than ten years before the survey tended to live in houses lacking these facilities only with about the same frequency as the non-migrants-23 percent.The educational attainment of migrants was lower than that of natives. This differential was especially great among women.The recent migrants have a greater rate of labor-force participation than the other groups. Among males, the rate for migrants was 84 percent and for natives 78 percent. The differential is even greater in the group 15-29 years of age, where the rates were 73 percent for migrants and 61 percent for natives. A similar differential was found for women.An income differential unfavorable toward migrants was found for both male and female workers. Among male workers there were no major occupational differences between migrants and non-migrants; among both migrants and natives two-thirds of the labor-force participants were classified as laborers. Among women there was a large differential; 80 percent of female migrants were laborers as contrasted with 56 percent for natives.It is interesting to mention that the proportion of manual workers, in the group "personal services," is higher among migrants than among natives. And, at the same time, the proportion of non-manual workers, in the group of "professionals and techniques," is higher among migrants than among natives.Finally, fertility of the native married women, whose husbands were present, is high. The average number of living children of women from 20 to 49 years old was 3.38 for native women and 3.19 for migrant women.     

Environmental Influences on Human Migration in Rural Ecuador

The question of whether environmental conditions influence human migration has recently gained considerable attention, driven by claims that global environmental change will displace large populations. Despite this high level of interest, few quantitative studies have investigated the potential effects of environmental factors on migration, particularly in the developing world and for gradual but pervasive forms of environmental change. To address this, a retrospective migration survey was conducted in rural Ecuador and linked to data on topography, climate, and weather shocks. These data were used to estimate multivariate event history models of alternative forms of mobility (local mobility, internal migration, and international migration), controlling for a large number of covariates. This approach is generalizable to other study areas and responds to calls for the development of more rigorous methods in this field. The results indicate that adverse environmental conditions do not consistently increase rural out-migration and, in some cases, reduce migration. Instead, households respond to environmental factors in diverse ways, resulting in complex migratory responses. Overall, the results support an alternative narrative of environmentally induced migration that recognizes the adaptability of rural households in responding to environmental change.     

State-Level 2010 Census Coverage Rates for Young Children

The Census Bureau’s demographic analysis (DA) shows that the net undercount rate for children aged 0–4 was 4.6 percent in the 2010 U.S. Decennial Census while adults (age 18 and older) had a net overcount rate of 0.7 percent. For the population aged 0–4, DA estimates are seen as more accurate than the U.S. Decennial Census because the estimates for this young population rely heavily on highly accurate birth certificate data. Given the relatively high net undercount rate for young children, it would be useful to examine census coverage rates for this population in subnational geographic units. In this study, the 2010 U.S. Decennial Census counts of children aged 0–4 are compared to the corresponding figures from the Census Bureau’s Vintage 2010 Population Estimates in each state. Differences between the 2010 U.S. Decennial Census count and the Vintage 2010 Population Estimates for the population aged 0–4 range from an estimated net undercount of 10.2 percent in Arizona to an estimated net overcount of 2.1 percent in North Dakota. Larger states tended to have higher net undercounts than smaller states. The ten largest states account for about 70 percent of the national net undercount of the population aged 0–4. Of all the factors examined here, the relative size of the Blacks Alone or in Combination plus Hispanics population is most highly correlated with the estimated net undercount of the population aged 0–4. Other measures that were highly correlated with net undercount rates for the population aged 0–4 were linguistic isolation, percent of adults without a high school degree, and the unemployment rate. In general, characteristics of people are more highly correlated with the net undercount rates of young children than the characteristics of housing units.