全球老龄化的挑战:人口学如何重塑21世纪的世界

前　言1 999～ 2 0 0 1年 ,美国战略与国际研究中心邀请了来自美国、日本、欧洲三大洲的政府官员、工商企业、学术界和非政府机构的 85位权威人物 ,组成专家委员会 ,共同研究了全球老龄化的原因以及给财政、金融、经济和国际政治带来的挑战。最后 ,其中 73位专家就 37项研究结果进行投票表决 ,并于2 0 0 2年 3月发表了政策与改革建议———《迎接全球老龄化的挑战》。此项研究对于开阔中国老龄科学研究的视野、促进中国老龄事业的发展具有借鉴意义。1　 2 0 2 2年 :老龄化的经济衰退光景首先 ,让我从带领大家步入未来时光开始 ,一览全球老龄…     

老龄化社会的展望和挑战

看不见的变化,人口老龄化不仅是指老龄人口的增加,因为人口金字塔本身会发生很大变化,即在年龄构成的整体变化中,老龄人口所占的比例增大。由此称为人口老龄化。因此,人口老龄化的理论始终不仅是高龄人口问题。然而在人口年龄构成的变化中考虑到老龄人口是十分重要的。年龄构成的变化是各发达国家目前出现的新现象,并给社会带来极为严重     

探索应对老龄化的人口策略

一、鹰潭市人口老龄化的特征江苏省鹰潭市是一座新型而年轻的城市,总人口超过110万,2010年末,65岁以上的老年人口达到83210人,占总人口的7.4%,已经步入了老龄化人口。据预测,"十二五"期间,鹰潭市人口老龄化将进入加速期,到"十二五"末,65岁老年人口数量将达到117071人,占总人口的比重将达到10%左右。鹰潭市人口老龄化具有以下三个特征:1."进展快"。"五普"期间,鹰潭市65岁的人口只有60567人,只占总人口的5.89%;到"六普"时,前后仅10年的时间,65岁的老年人口上升至83210人,     

老龄化的挑战与战略取向研究

我国21世纪初开始步入老龄化社会。老龄化给社会增加压力,在经济、社会等多方面提出了挑战,论文阐述了这些挑战,并就此提出积极的老龄化战略观,继而阐明了老龄化战略取向。     

基本养老保险个人账户能否应对老龄化

为应对人口老龄化.中国社会养老保险制度的筹资模式由现收现付制转变为部分积累制,从而在基本养老保险制度中引入了个人账户制度。然而,现行制度下的个人账户能否真正应对老龄化的挑战,值得探讨。文章以浙江省基本养老保险制度为考察对象,根据全国第五次人口普查浙江省的资料,借助保险精算理论,讨论在一定的待遇系数下,投资回报率与个人账户基金可支付年限的关系;在一定的投资回报率之下,个人账户基金可支付年限与待遇系数的关系;在不同待遇系数下,个人账户养老金月标准能否达到目标替代率。     

建立健全社会养老保险体系迎接老龄化的挑战

建立健全社会养老保险体系迎接老龄化的挑战本刊编辑部江泽民总书记在党的１５大报告中指出要“建立社会保障体系,实行社会统筹和个人帐户相结合的养老、医疗保险制度,完善失业保险和社会救济制度,提供最基本的社会保障”,要“重视人口老龄化问题”。我国人口的８７．...     

欧洲应对老龄化困境的政策实践与启示

人口老龄化已成为一种全球性现象,而欧洲是老龄化形势最为严峻的地区。人口老龄化影响着欧洲社会的方方面面,对经济的影响尤为深远。欧洲国家由于较早进入老龄化社会,较高的经济发展水平及完善的社会保障政策,使得欧洲在处理老龄化问题上独具匠心。进入新时期,我国也迈入了老龄化社会,借鉴欧洲,结合实际,探索着我国的老龄化对策。     

韩国的人口挑战及其应对措施

人口问题正成为韩国面临的一大挑战之一,韩国的人口趋势所呈现的特征为老龄化和低生育率。本文认为造成韩国人口状况的最根本因素是经济因素,工业化与计划生育是相伴进行的,而亚洲金融危机进一步加剧了韩国人口减少的趋势,由此将会对未来带来许多不利影响。韩国已经认识到问题的严重性,正采取措施以扭转这种状况。     

城镇人口过半的挑战与应对

我国城镇人口历史首次超过农村人口,达到51.27%,但这一社会结构历史性转变的背后却存在城镇化水平虚高的问题。如果将城镇人口总数扣除被迫城镇化且生活困难的失地农民,以及未享受市民待遇的流动人口,我国真实的城镇化水平约为41.6%。同时,城镇人口过半以后也面临诸多挑战:整个社会没有建立起顺应城市社会形态的价值体系;对于城镇的作用以及应该怎样发展城市缺乏清醒认识;城市管理对城镇化发展没有做好充分的准备;城市常住居民享有平等的市民待遇任重而道远。因此,应对城镇化挑战,提升城镇化质量的关键在于正确认识城市化的作用和实质,遵循城市发展的自身规律以及积极探索建设顺应城市社会形态的文化体系。     

老龄化问题:可持续发展面临的新挑战--基于苏州的个案研究

在21世纪,老龄问题正在日渐凸显出战略性问题的地位。本文以苏州为个案分析了苏州可持续发展面临的新挑战以及解决老龄问题的一些成功探索,并指出从可持续发展高度来定位老龄问题正是苏州宝贵的经验所在。最后的结论是:高扬起贡献——回报的理论和人道主义的旗帜,才是处理好人口老龄化和经济社会可持续发展关系以及改革、发展、稳定三者关系的基本前提。     

发展老龄产业:应对人口老龄化的一项重要战略

背　景2 0世纪 80年代以来 ,伴随着计划生育工作的不断深入开展 ,我国开始了人口老龄化的过程。 2 0 0 0年 ,我国 6 0岁以上老年人口占总人口的比例达到 1 0 2 % ,标志着我国已经进入了老年型国家的行列。在新的世纪里 ,我国的人口老龄化过程仍将继续。据预测 ,2 0 30年 ,我国 6 0岁以上老年人口数量将由目前的 1 3亿增加到 3 1亿 ,占总人口的比例提高到 2 0 42 % ;2 0 5 0年 ,6 0岁以上老年人口数量及其在总人口中所占比例将分别达 4 6 8亿和 2 7 71 %。老年人口数量的急剧增长和比例的迅速提高 ,引起了全社会的关心和重视。江泽民同志…     

Preparing adolescents for adulthood

Pregnancy-related school dropouts have become a matter of public concern throughout sub-Saharan Africa. In most cases, schoolgirls who become pregnant either have to resort to unsafe illegal abortions, or they face official school expulsion. Because girls who drop out of school due to pregnancy usually do not return to school to complete their education after the birth of their child, their opportunities for socioeconomic advancement are limited. Many African governments have included family life education programs in the school curriculum in an attempt to educate adolescents about the consequences and responsibilities associated with sexual activity. The high rates of schoolgirl pregnancies suggest that these programs have their shortcomings, and indicate that educational policies should attempt not only to reduce the incidence of schoolgirl pregnancies, but also to assist pregnant schoolgirls to complete their education. In this paper, we use data from a sample of 154 Kenyan primary and secondary schools to study differentials in the extent to which various types of schools are affected by pregnancy-related school dropouts, and to examine the opinions of the head teachers regarding teaching about contraceptive methods and readmittance of pregnancy-related dropouts.     

Aging population scenarios: an Australian experience

During the past decade, there has been wide public discussion about the effects of population and immigration policies. There is some consensus that an older population imposes economic costs but uncontrolled population growth imposes congestion and environmental burdens. While many realize that policies which restrict population tend to exacerbate aging, the inevitable trade-off is not widely acknowledged. Fewer still appreciate that there is a sustainable age distribution that is largely imposed on us by nature that cannot be defeated in the long term. In this paper, we look at the ‘aging issue’ for Australia by looking at the total population and age distribution as a joint outcome. For ease of interpretation, the age distribution is converted into a required retirement age (RRA) to maintain dependency ratios at 2010 levels. We examine the effects of alternative policy scenarios on total population and RRAs, benchmarked against a hypothetical population in zero population growth equilibrium. We account for differing demographic groups of immigrants and emigrants as well as trends in mortality. Policy scenarios can be well summarized by plotting the trajectory of the two outcomes, total population and RRA, with the equilibrium values as axes.     

Gender and Aging in the Developing World: Where Are the Men?

In recent years, both population aging and gender issues have gained prominence in international forums concerned with population. It is frequently asserted or implied that older women are universally more vulnerable to social, economic, and health disadvantages than older men. The most significant manifestation of this exclusive concern with women when considering gender and aging is the Plan of Action adopted by the Second World Assembly on Aging in 2002. The assumed relative disadvantage of elderly women is commonly attributed to gender differences in earlier life experiences. But are older women truly disadvantaged globally with respect to all or most essential aspects of well‐being? The authors provide empirical evidence that clearly shows that older women are not invariably disadvantaged vis‐à‐vis men. In particular, they call into question the wisdom and equity of a virtually exclusive emphasis on the needs of women when incorporating gender concerns into policies and programs related to aging. A more balanced perspective that recognizes gender as a potential, but not necessarily central, marker of vulnerability for various aspects of well‐being in specific settings and times, and that allows for male as well as female disadvantage, would serve the current and future elderly generations far better.     

Demographic Conditions Responsible for Population Aging

This article develops and applies two expressions for the rate of change of a population's mean age. In one, aging is shown to be negatively related to contemporary birth rates and death rates. In a general sense, aging occurs when vital rates are too low, as illustrated through applications to the United States, the Netherlands, and Japan. The other expression relates the rate of aging to a population's demographic history, in particular to changes in mortality, migration, and the annual number of births. Applications to the United States and Sweden show that the dominant factor in current aging in these countries is a history of declining mortality. Migration also contributes significantly but in opposite directions in the two countries. The two approaches are integrated after recognizing that the rate of change in the mean age is equal to the covariance between age and age-specific growth rates. A decomposition of this covariance shows that the two seemingly unrelated expressions contain exactly the same information about the age pattern of growth rates.     

Indicators of Preclinical Disability: Women's Experiences of an Aging Body

This paper is derived from a larger multimethod longitudinal study of women's bodily experiences and coping practices before the onset of disability. Twelve women participated in repeated performance measures, in-depth interviews of daily life and physically challenging events, and observations of daily activities conducted over 18 months. Interpretive phenomenological analysis of textual data showed that women's bodies provided multiple indicators or symptoms of preclinical disability. These indicators informed the women that their body was out of synch with their environment; conspicuous during social activities; and vulnerable to becoming dependent on others, technology, or assistive devices to accomplish daily activities. Greater attention to bodily indicators or symptoms may offer a practical method for clinicians to identify preclinical disability.     

北京市人口老龄化与积极老龄化

本文首先介绍了研究北京市积极老龄化的背景、积极老龄化的概念及内容 ;重点论述了北京市近几年来在积极老龄化方面做出的努力与产生的效益 ;最后提出了今后老龄化过程中所采用的积极老龄化对策建议。     

Sexuality and Intimacy for Aging Women:

No abstract available for this article.     

Population Aging

Lateststatisticsindicatethatbytheendof1998,China'spopulationhadhit1.248billion,withthenumberofpeopleover65yearsoldreaching83.75million,or6.7%ofthetotalpopulation.Expertsestimatethatby2000,thenumberofpeopleover60yearsofagewillreach129million,over10%ofthetotalpopulation.ChinawillbecomeanagingsocietybyUNstandards.TwohundF8d-pear-oldwomeninanurseryhomeofN8nniRg,GuangxiProViflce,ontheiFwaytoahealthresort.TheagingpopulationpresentsaseriesofchallengestoChina,themostpopulousnationintheworld.Thegr…