中国经济与政治的崛起——对全球恐怖主义和中美合作的影响

作为现代国际体系中的后起之秀,中国已经意识到崛起之后所面临的恐怖主义威胁。自20世纪90年代初以来,中国多次遭受了源于新疆或者与之相关的暴力袭击。中国政府在中东、非洲、南亚和中亚广泛寻求能源,使得中国面临的恐怖威胁在未来可能还会增加。在美国遭受。"9.11"恐怖袭击之后,特别是在2008年奥运会的安保工作中,中美开展了共同反对恐怖主义的合作。华盛顿和北京都发现,在反对国际恐怖主义的问题上,双方有很多共同利益。然而,为确保两国能开展长期合作,双方都必须掌控在恐怖主义问题上意见相左的局面,并克服区域政治竞争带来的巨大挑战。     

国际核恐怖主义的行为特征分析——国外学者视野中的国际核恐怖主义威胁与防范

国际核恐怖主义是当今乃至以后国际社会面临的一项严重的非传统安全威胁.国外学者一般认为,防范国际核恐怖主义需要阻止核武器与可用的辐射材料被潜在的核恐怖主义组织和恐怖分子掌握.据此,又提出了威慑范式、“三无原则”以及加强国际合作和情报共享等防范国际核恐怖主义的具体措施和建议.本文认为,防范核恐怖主义要根除恐怖主义产生的土壤,标本兼治、综合治理、多元预防.     

中亚的战略困境

由于中亚毗邻国际安全威胁--特别是恐怖主义威胁--的发源地,因此在这里形成了一个国家安全和反恐服务的市场.各种势力在这个市场上活动和竞争.在此条件下,乌兹别克斯坦面临着十分复杂的地缘政治困境,其与俄罗斯和美国的战略合作就具有特别的意义.     

九一一事件以来南亚国家与美国的军事合作关系浅析

九一一事件后 ,南亚国家作为反恐战线的前沿 ,积极发展与美国的军事合作关系。同时 ,美国为了打击恐怖主义 ,也积极抢占南亚这一反恐战线前沿 ,并参与和协助南亚诸国反恐。一、印美军事合作迅速升温九一一事件后 ,由于印度对美国打击恐怖主义采取了不遗余力的支持政策 ,美国也因此解除了 1998年以来对印度实施的军事制裁。从此 ,一度在冷战时期疏远的两国关系 ,尤其是军事合作关系迅速升温。用美国太平洋司令部总司令丹尼斯·布莱尔的话说 ,现在印美两国在安全和军事合作方面几乎达到了“前所未有”的程度。(一 )防务接触频繁 ,军事对话加强…     

南亚区域合作的历程、成效及挑战

南亚区域合作萌芽于二战结束之初。1980年之后,南亚区域合作加速推进,逐渐形成了以南亚区域合作联盟与一系列次区域组织为依托的合作机制。21世纪以来,南亚自贸区建设取得了一系列进展,在能源合作领域的成绩较为显著,次区域合作的成效更为突出。不过,南亚区域合作的协议签署多,执行弱;合作长期停留在经济与社会层面,无法深入到更加重要的地区安全合作领域。另外,特殊的地缘政治格局、地区主义在南亚的缺失、恐怖主义的泛滥以及各国对外战略重心的差异都对南亚区域合作带来了挑战。未来,南亚区域合作将会出现分化的态势,全区域整合困难重重。     

浅析冷战后恐怖主义对国际安全的影响

冷战结束以来 ,恐怖主义的发展、变化对国际安全造成了更为深远的影响。在理论层面 ,恐怖主义的特点在新安全观的内涵、外延及主体等方面中表现明显 ,对传统的安全观形成挑战。在事实层面 ,冷战后的恐怖主义对国际政治、经济和军事安全构成重大的威胁 ,越来越为各国关注。     

南亚地缘政治构造与印度的安全战略

南亚不仅是中亚的腹地 ,而且是印度洋北部边缘从红海到马六甲海峡这一弧形战略地带的核心。这一事实决定了印度对威胁的判断受两大地缘政治现实的影响 :来自陆上的压力和来自海上的挑战 ,因而印度的战略视野、特别是国家安全被放在一个远大于南亚区域的、伸展开来的战略框架中去整体统筹。南亚权势结构的不对称性、以印度为中心的区域地理特征、英属印度的战略传统、冷战的经验教训以及冷战后地缘政治的重大变更 ,使得印度主要依凭“自助”战略致力于“地区核心”这一目标。基于历史经验和南亚地缘政治构造 ,印度在思考和制定安全战略时无不同时注意陆上和海上两大方向 ,但印度作为陆海复合型国家所具有的天然缺陷从根本上决定了其安全战略面临的困境 ,特别是其安全战略目标并不能始终如一地定位于“地区核心”这一点上。     

南亚自由贸易区的构建及前景分析

南亚区域合作联盟逐渐受到南亚各国的重视,正逐渐成为南亚各国交流合作的平台.以此为契机,南亚各国致力于构建南亚自由贸易区,旨在促进区域经济的长期良性发展.这为中国增强与该地区的政治和经贸关系提供了新的机遇与平台.本文深入分析了南亚自由贸易区的启动、发展前景、面临的主要困难及中国与南亚自由贸易区的关系.     

论巴基斯坦联盟外交及其困境

在南亚舞台上 ,印度和巴基斯坦无可争辩地扮演着极其重要的角色。印巴关系的好坏从根本上决定了南亚安全环境的好坏。然而 ,国家理念的对立和印强巴弱的地区力量结构决定了巴基斯坦的国家安全始终都面临着来自印度的严重威胁 1。结果 ,巴基斯坦对印度的一种本能的恐惧和对自身安全的忧虑一直支配着国家政治生活。显然 ,改变地区力量结构性失衡是巴基斯坦摆脱印度威胁的根本出路。但问题是 ,在仅凭自身力量的情况下 ,巴基斯坦根本无法实现这一战略目标。于是 ,唯一的可能性便是借助联盟 2 求安全。本文主要基于斯蒂芬 .瓦尔特所提供的研究范…     

试析南亚区域环境合作机制及其有效性

近年来,南亚区域内各国面临着水资源枯竭与污染、荒漠化、生物多样性损害及气候变化负面影响等环境危害迅速增长的问题。尽管南亚区域内环境合作是治理区域内跨境问题的重要途径,并且已建立起南亚区域合作联盟(SAARC)框架下的环境合作机制与南亚环境合作计划(SACEP),但由于内生性的制度缺陷及外生因素的限制,区域环境机制的有效性一直难以提升。因此,南亚环境合作整体呈现出治理水平不高、能力不足、资金和技术匮乏等特点。     

美国全面调整阿富汗政策及其影响

阿富汗战争已历时十年之久,美国因深陷阿战国力严重消耗,其振兴国内经济的目标也未实现.鉴于此,奥巴马政府再度大幅调整阿富汗政策,在阿战略重点由“反恐至上”转为“地缘优先”,并出台“新丝绸之路”计划,采取措施推进中亚、南亚一体化,召开多轮阿富汗问题国际会议,加速阿富汗重建进程.在美国推动下,阿富汗形势面临重大拐点,并将对该地区安全及地缘政治格局产生深远影响.     

Effects of Right-Wing Authoritarianism and Threat from Terrorism on Restriction of Civil Liberties

In an Internet survey (N = 275), we investigated how right-wing authoritarianism (RWA), social dominance orientation (SDO), personal values, and political ideology predicted attitudes toward restriction of civil liberties and toward surveillance measured one year later. Feelings of threat from terrorism were also taken into account. RWA, SDO, political ideology, security values, and self-direction values were significant predictors. In addition, RWA interacted with threat from terrorism, in that threat reinforced the positive effect of RWA on support for surveillance measures. Thus, the study contributes to the understanding of psychological reasons for support for political measures related to civil liberties.     

中亚地区恐怖主义的产生原因及其对策研究

苏联解体后,中亚地区恐怖主义日益成为影响国际社会稳定的重要因素。通过剖析这些恐怖主义组织的活动现状及其特点,可以发现中亚恐怖主义滋生蔓延的根源,它是各种民族、宗教、地缘、经济、大国势力争夺等内外因素交织碰撞的产物,短期内难以彻底解决。在此基础上,本文分析了中亚恐怖主义活动的产生原因,提出了防范和打击恐怖主义的对策。     

Terrorism,military operations and farmer’s income in Waziristan (Pakistan)

This study examined the impact of military operations induced by terrorism on farmer’s income by collecting data from North and South Waziristan Agencies in Pakistan. Both regions have similar climate, lifestyle and agricultural activities but North was facing war while there was no war on terrorism in South. Data were collected from 110 respondents through interviews by using structured questionnaire. In estimated models, North Waziristan farmers’ income was significantly lower than the South Waziristan farmers due to military operation induced by terrorism. Government of Pakistan can enhance farm income by promoting education, livestock, orchard farming, market access and extension services.     

奥巴马政府对东南亚政策的调整及原因分析

小布什政府的东南亚政策主要关注于反恐、发展双边经贸和扩展民主。由于缺乏连贯、全面的战略安排和政策上的失误,美国在该地区的硬实力和软实力出现"失衡",美国在该地区的战略影响力不升反降。奥巴马政府上台以来,在确保其东南亚战略利益和战略目标基本不变的前提下,在"巧实力"外交理念的指导下,全面介入该地区的各项事务。本文旨在分析这一调整的动因及其对该地区权力格局演变和地区安全秩序塑造所产生的影响。     

Security sector practitioner perceptions of the terror threat environment before the Christchurch attacks

ABSTRACT

On 15 March 2019, Brenton Tarrant destroyed New Zealand’s perception of its low threat terrorist risk. Security sector practitioners interviewed for this study before 15 March spoke about the challenges of performing counter terrorism roles in that low threat environment. Their perceptions revealed a fear that terrorist attacks occurring overseas, would sooner or later occur in New Zealand. Their roles were complicated by an overarching sense of social, bureaucratic and political complacency toward the threat of terrorism. They perceived legislative inertia, which fettered the powers and resources agencies had to effectively act against the risks they believed were present. Despite these barriers, security sector agencies continued to look for possible emerging threats across a spectrum of risk, but relied on improvised use of existing legislation to manage it. This was more effective against those motivated by militant jihadism, and as Tarrant demonstrated, less so against other threats. Community engagement was needed and successfully achieved, although difficulties were observed which need to be addressed, and the media was perceived as having an undue influence over New Zealand’s security priorities, highlighting the need for a national counter terrorism strategy.     

Are Terrorists Mentally Deranged?

Recent terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center towers and the Pentagon have accentuated the threat of terrorism. However, it appears that the attackers are popularly thought of as mentally deranged individuals who are evil. This article suggests that such an understanding is a misperception of these people and may interfere with an adequate response to prevent future attacks. The article reviews the extant literature on psychological theories of terrorism and concludes that terrorists are not dysfunctional or pathological; rather, it suggests that terrorism is basically another form of politically motivated violence that is perpetrated by rational, lucid people who have valid motives. The only real difference between terrorism and conventional military action is one of strategy. Terrorists lack the necessary resources to wage war in furtherance of their political goals.     

东北亚命运共同体构建何以成为可能?

在中国政府提出将与国际社会共同构建“人类命运共同体”之后,人们普遍感觉到中国正在积极推动东北亚地区的合作与和解,因而有关构建东北亚命运共同体的设想也格外引人注目。虽然官方并未公布构建东北亚地区命运共同体的政策目标,但呼吁构建周边命运共同体和亚洲命运共同体。与历史上日韩等提出的“东亚(东北亚)共同体”建设不同,中国政府分外重视命运共同体所体现的共享历史、平等、相互尊重和共同发展的含义,是一种超越反霸和同盟关系、推动新型伙伴关系建设的话语体系。在比较各方关于东北亚地区的定义后可以发现,“东北亚”是一个地缘政治概念,直至中美关系改善和中国推进改革开放后,这个术语才有了接近今天所表述的整体感。即便如此,域内国家对东北亚的边界仍有不同意见,经济学者和政治学者讨论东亚(东北亚)时对概念的范围也有分歧,因而仍难以形成一致的地区认同和地区发展愿景。未来,需要进一步研究东北亚作为一个整体的国际关系和地缘政治经济演变趋势,才能进一步推动东北亚命运共同体建设。     

Macroeconomic consequences of terrorism in Pakistan

The objective of the study examines the macroeconomic consequences of terrorism in Pakistan. The study evaluates the short- and long-run relationship between terrorism and economic factors over a period of 1975–2011. Both objectives have been achieved with the sophisticated econometrics techniques including cointegration theory, Granger causality test and variance decomposition, etc. The result reveals that macroeconomic factors, i.e., population growth, price level, poverty and political instability cause the terrorism incidence in Pakistan. However, income inequality, unemployment and trade openness have no long-run relationship with the terrorism incidence in Pakistan. The study may conclude that, for some how, Pakistan's macroeconomic indicators have significant long-run equilibrium with terrorism incidence. The result of Granger causality indicates that except unemployment, all other macroeconomic indicators have unidirectional causality with terrorism incidence. Unemployment has a bi-directional causality with the terrorism incidence in Pakistan. The results of variance decomposition indicate that there exists statistically significant cointegration among macroeconomic factors and terrorism incidence in Pakistan. Among macroeconomic factors, changes in price level exert the largest influence on terrorism in Pakistan. Contrary, the influence of poverty seems relatively the least contribution level for changes in terrorism incidence in Pakistan.     

Towards a critical discourse analysis of New Zealand security policy in Afghanistan

ABSTRACT

Rather than ask why New Zealand supported the intervention, this paper focuses on how representations of New Zealand and the international terrorist threat resulted in public acquiescence to a pre-emptive strike by the world's sole superpower against one of the poorest, most war-torn countries in the world. The paper concludes that legitimacy was achieved through the blending of themes of terrorism and war, national interest and democracy, rule of law and human rights, to produce an ambiguous ‘international campaign against terrorism’ that allowed for picking and choosing of the most convenient position on different matters. The alternative—to refuse moral and material support for the United States-led ‘war on terror’—was to risk New Zealand's membership of the United States-led international community and a ‘seat at the table’ in future international trade and security negotiations. As such, any campaign benefits appear to have accrued to New Zealand rather than Afghanistan or the Afghan people, especially given the parlous state of that country in 2018. A wide-ranging debate within New Zealand on the purpose of such interventions is needed before similar commitments are made in the future.