Estimating the completeness of death registration

In this paper, U.S. data from the 1981 Child Health Supplement are used to estimate the effect of a child's disability or serious chronic illness on: (1) the risk of the parents' divorcing before the child reaches the age of 11, and (2) the mother's chances of remarriage after divorce. Divorce is significantly more common among the parents of disabled or sickly children than among those of healthy children, and these disruptive effects of a child's frailty are even stronger when children are between six and nine years old than when they are younger. Possibly, divorce only becomes a viable option for some parents once a sickly child has started to spend part of the day away from home, in school. In contrast, a child's health status does not predict the mother's waiting time to remarriage. A range of potentially confounding demographic factors are controlled in the models, and their effects on children's chances of experiencing parental divorce are as expected. For example, having a mother who married young significantly predicts parental divorce.     

The influence of parents’ marital dissolutions on children’s attitudes toward family formation

We investigate the influence of parents’ marital dissolutions on their children’s attitudes toward several dimensions of family formation. Hypotheses focus on the role of parents’ attitudes as a mechanism linking parents’ behavior to their children’s attitudes. We test these hypotheses using intergenerational panel data that include measures of parents’ attitudes taken directly from parents and measures of children’s attitudes taken directly from children. Results demonstrate strong effects of parental divorce, remarriage, and widowhood on children’s attitudes toward premarital sex, cohabitation, marriage. childbearing, and divorce. The results also show that parents’ own attitudes link their behavior to their children’s attitudes, although substantial effects of parental behavior remain after controlling for parents’ attitudes.     

Children and marital disruption: A replication and update

Data from the 1980 June Current Population Survey are used to estimate the incidence and duration of marital disruption as experienced by children. Rates during the 1977-1979 period suggest that about two-fifths of children born to married mothers will experience the disruption of that marriage while they are children. When children born before their mothers' first marriage are included, half of recent cohorts are likely to spend some time in a single parent family. These rates increased consistently over the 1970s. For the majority of those who experience a marital disruption, over five years are likely to elapse before the mother remarries. Furthermore, about half of the children who go through a divorce and remarriage will experience the breakup of the new family as well. At the same time, the interval between separation and divorce is less than a year for most children involved. There are major differences in these rates by race and important differences as well by education and age of mother. Replication of our earlier estimates for comparable periods was quite good for the estimates of the experience of marital dissolution, but somewhat less so for the analysis of mother's subsequent remarriage.     

Enforcing divorce settlements: Evidence from child support compliance and award modifications

This paper uses an implicit contracting framework to understand the dynamic nature of divorce settlements and to analyze the determinants of noncompliance with child support awards. In addition to the standard economic variables that affect the noncustodial parent’s (NCP’s) ability to pay child support, our approach focuses on factors that may affect the NCP’s desire to pay, such as the ongoing relationship between the two parents and between the NCP and the children. We also examine the “state-contingent” nature of child support payments and explore the factors that lead to modifications in child support agreements. Using a longitudinal data set collected by the Stanford Child Custody Project, the empirical analysis provides documentation that compliance by noncustodial fathers can vary substantially from month to month. In addition, we find that even within a short period after divorce, a substantial minority of parents agree to make informal modifications to their divorce settlement in response to changes in economic circumstances and in custodial arrangements     

The impact of changes in the marital status on return migration of family migrants

Many migrants have non-labour motives to migrate, and they differ substantially from labour migrants in their migration behaviour. For family migrants, the decision to return is highly influenced by changes in their marital status. Using administrative panel data on the entire population of recent family immigrants to the Netherlands, we estimate the effect of a divorce and remarriage on the hazard of leaving the Netherlands using a ‘timing of events’ model. The model allows for correlated unobserved heterogeneity across the migration, the divorce and remarriage processes. The family migrants are divided into five groups based on the Human Development Index (HDI) of their country of birth. We find that both divorce and remarriage increase return of family migrants from less-developed countries. Remarriage of family migrants from developed countries makes them more prone to stay. Young migrants are influenced most by a divorce. The impact of the timing of a divorce and remarriage on return is quantified graphically.     

Parental divorce in childhood and demographic outcomes in young adulthood

We investigated the long-term effects of parental divorce in childhood on demographic outcomes in young adulthood, using a British longitudinal national survey of children. Our analyses control for predisruption characteristics of the child and the family, including emotional problems, cognitive’ achievement, and socioeconomic status. The results show that by age 23, those whose parents divorced were more likely to leave home because of friction, to cohabit, and to have a child outside marriage than were those whose parents did not divorce. Young adults whose parents divorced, however, were no more or less likely to marry or to have a child in a marriage. Moreover, even in the divorced group, the great majority did not leave home because of friction or have a child outside marriage.     

Divorced Fathers’ Proximity and Children’s Long-Run Outcomes: Evidence From Norwegian Registry Data

This study examines the link between divorced nonresident fathers’ proximity and children’s long-run outcomes, using high-quality data from Norwegian population registers. We follow (from birth to young adulthood) each of 15,992 children born into married households in Norway in the years 1975–1979 whose parents divorced during his or her childhood. We observe the proximity of the child to his or her father in each year following the divorce and link proximity to educational and economic outcomes for the child in young adulthood, controlling for a wide range of observable characteristics of the parents and the child. Our results show that closer proximity to the father following a divorce has, on average, a modest negative association with offspring’s outcomes in young adulthood. The negative associations are stronger among children of highly educated fathers. Complementary Norwegian survey data show that highly educated fathers report more post-divorce conflict with their ex-wives as well as more contact with their children (measured in terms of the number of nights that the child spends at the father’s house). Consequently, the father’s relocation to a more distant location following the divorce may shelter the child from disruptions in the structure of the child’s life as they split time between households and/or from post-divorce interparental conflict.     

The effects of kin on child mortality in rural gambia

We analyzed data that were collected continuously between 1950 and 1974 from a rural area of the Gambia to determine the effects of kin on child mortality. Multilevel event-history models were used to demonstrate that having a living mother, maternal grandmother, or elder sisters had a significant positive effect on the survival probabilities of children, whereas having a living father, paternal grandmother, grandfather, or elder brothers had no effect. The mother's remarriage to a new husband had a detrimental effect on child survival, but there was little difference in the mortality rates of children who were born to monogamous or polygynous fathers. The implications of these results for understanding the evolution of human life-history are discussed.     

The Effects of Post-marital Childbearing on Divorce and Remarriage: An Application of Hazards Models with Time-dependent Covariates

In this paper we examine the effects of having a baby during a period of separation on the probability of divorce, and the impact of bearing a child while divorced on the likelihood of remarriage in the United States. Among whites, neither a first nor a second birth during separation had any significant effect on the probability of divorce. Among blacks, either a first or second birth significantly increased the chance of divorce. The function of post-marital childbearing among black women as an incentive to obtaining divorces (presumably to allow them to establish new unions formally) is important, because a large proportion remain separated indefinitely. Whereas the occurrence of both first and second births during divorce significantly increased the probability of remarriage among whites, only a second birth did so among blacks. Further analysis suggests that while the legitimization of births was an important factor among whites, there was little evidence of a comparable effect among blacks.     

A reconsideration of the economic consequences of marital dissolution

A close look at the income flows in the years following a divorce or separation reveals marked differences in the distribution of effects. The economic consequences of divorce are especially adverse for women. In most cases, children remain with the mother, who usually has considerably lower potential labor market earnings than her former husband, partly because her responsibilities for the children are likely to reduce her labor supply and may have limited her past human capital investments. Alimony and child support are the principal mechanisms for transfers from the ex-husband to the ex-wife, but payments are rarely frequent or sizeable enough to make up for an appreciable amount of the labor income lost through the departure of the ex-husband. Human capital investments on the part of the mother have a modest effect on her economic situation in the years following the divorce. Most men who divorce or separate are immediately better off because they retain most of their labor incomes, typically do not pay large amounts of alimony and child support to their ex-wives, and no longer have to provide for the level of needs associated with their former families. Much more important than growth in the ex-wife's own labor income is the role of a new husband's labor income upon her remarriage. More than half of the white women remarry within five years following a divorce or separation; the comparable fraction for black women is less than half. An interesting question is whether the currently unmarried would enjoy the same kind of economic benefits, were they to remarry, as women who have remarried. Estimates from a model of the new husband's labor income, adjusted for selection bias inherent in the process of remarriage, indicate that the currently unmarried would probably not gain equal benefits if they were to remarry. The expected labor income of potential husbands of black women averages only about $5000--a modest amount when compared with the alternatives available to these women.     

Shifting coresidence near the end of life: Comparing decedents and survivors of a follow-up study in China

What we know about transitions in coresidence of elders in China is based on panel data involving survivors. This article examines the tendency to and determinants of shifts in coresidence with adult children among the very old, comparing survivors of an intersurvey period with those who died (decedents). Data come from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey. Baseline and follow-up surveys indicate shifts in coresidence, defined as change from not living with an adult child to living in the same household as an adult child, and the converse. Rates of shifting are adjusted for time to follow-up. Regressions examine predictors of shifts among four groups: baseline coresident and noncoresident survivors and decedents. Decedents and noncoresidents are more likely to shift than survivors and coresidents. Covariates related to physical and material need as well as marital status are the strongest predictors of shift. Thus, the needs of a very old person dominate coresidential shifts and stability, lending support to an altruistic notion of living arrangement decision making. In the end, we conclude that the period nearing the end of life is a time of flux in living situation and that coresidential shifts are underestimated when those who die during a follow-up study are ignored.     

The effect of divorce on intergenerational transfers: New evidence

This paper draws on new data on intergenerational transfers of time and money that were collected in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. We use these data to examine the effects of divorce on these transfers. We find that the timing of divorce is critical. Fathers and mothers involved in late divorces have similar levels of transfers with their adult children, while divorce during a child’s childhood years increases transfers with mothers and sharply lowers them with fathers. Somewhat surprisingly, we find no evidence that divorced fathers who paid child support are more likely to be involved in intergenerational transfers than those who did not pay child support.     

Communicating population and family planning

This thorough look at the change in the American family 1900-1700 finds that 40% of marriages among women now in their late 20s may end in divorce, that the divorce rate is stabilizing, that between 1-4% of unrelated men and women are living together in informal unions (the figure made difficult to obtain by the difficulty in framing the question), that 15 million adults live alone, and that only 67% of children live with their own once-married parents. About 33% of births are premaritally conceived. The median age for mothers at birth of last child has moved downward from 33 years in the early 1900s to about 30 years. Childbearing has declined from 3.9 children per mother in the early 1900s to 2.5. The period of childbearing has been compressed to about 7 years, between ages 23-30. 10% of remarried women's children are born between marriages. 50% of pregnancies end in abortion. It was found that persons who had completed an educational level, whether it be high school or college, generally had more stable marriages; those who had not completed a level were more likely to get divorced. Despite changes in lifestyle, however, some typical family situations are experienced by most Americans. 2 of 3 marriages will last until death of 1 of the partners and most young women questioned in census surveys expect 2 children.     

Children's living arrangements in developing countries

This paper documents the wide variation in living arrangements experienced by children in developing regions using data from 19 Demographic and Health Surveys. Traditionally, researchers and policymakers concerned with child welfare have assumed that, apart from exceptional cases, children live with their mothers, experience childhood together with their siblings, and have access to resources from both biological parents. Data presented in this paper contradict this assumption. The data demonstrate that, in many countries of sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America as opposed to parts of Asia and North Africa, children spend substantial proportions of their childhood years apart from one or both parents and, by extension, apart from at least some of their siblings. The mothers of many of these children do not live with a partner or are in marital circumstances that may attenuate the link between the child and the father. In countries where child fostering is practiced, the likelihood that children will live apart from their mothers is negatively related to their mother's access to the resources of their fathers and other relatives and positively related to the number of younger siblings. The focus of the paper is on four essential elements of children's living arrangements that influence their access to resources: (1) mother-child co-residence, (2) father-child coresidence, (3) household structure and (4) the number, presence and spacing of siblings. The research suggests that significant proportions of young children, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, benefit from the support provided by family members other than their parents. This support, which involves the coresidence of family members beyond the nuclear unit, can take many forms: the co-residence of three generations within the same household, the inclusion of a single mother and her children as a sub-family within a more complex household, or the exchange of children between kin. Surprisingly, despite enormous variations between countries in current fertility rates (ranging from roughly 2 to 7 births per woman), children in countries as diverse as Thailand and Mali spend their childhood with no more than 2 to 3 children on average sharing the same household. Thus, childhood as it is experienced in many parts of the developing world has much that is common despite apparent differences and much else that is different despite apparent similarities.This is a substantially revised version of a paper presented at the Demographic and Health Surveys World Conference in Washington, DC, 5–7 August 1991.     

The intergenerational transmission of divorce in cross-national perspective: results from the Fertility and Family Surveys

We used data on women's first marriages from the Fertility and Family Surveys to analyse the intergenerational transmission of divorce across 18 countries and to seek explanations in macro-level characteristics for the cross-national variation. Our results show that women whose parents divorced have a significantly higher risk of divorce in 17 countries. There is some cross-national variation. When compared with the USA, the association is stronger in six countries. This variation is negatively associated with the proportion of women in each cohort who experienced the divorce of their parents and with the national level of women's participation in the labour force during childhood. We conclude that differences in the contexts in which children of divorce learn marital and interpersonal behaviour affect the strength of the intergenerational transmission of divorce.     

The intergenerational transmission of divorce in cross-national perspective: Results from the Fertility and Family Surveys

We used data on women's first marriages from the Fertility and Family Surveys to analyse the intergenerational transmission of divorce across 18 countries and to seek explanations in macro-level characteristics for the cross-national variation. Our results show that women whose parents divorced have a significantly higher risk of divorce in 17 countries. There is some cross-national variation. When compared with the USA, the association is stronger in six countries. This variation is negatively associated with the proportion of women in each cohort who experienced the divorce of their parents and with the national level of women's participation in the labour force during childhood. We conclude that differences in the contexts in which children of divorce learn marital and interpersonal behaviour affect the strength of the intergenerational transmission of divorce.     

Intrahousehold Resource Allocation: Do Parents Reduce or Reinforce Child Ability Gaps?

Do parents invest more or less in their high-ability children? We provide new evidence on this question by comparing observed ability differences and observed investment differences between siblings living in the United States. To overcome endogeneity issues, we use sibling differences in handedness as an instrument for cognitive ability differences. We find that parents invest more in high-ability children, with a 1 standard deviation increase in child cognitive ability increasing parental investments by approximately one-third of a standard deviation. Consequently, differences in child cognitive ability are enhanced by differential parental investments.     

Beyond the Nuclear Family: Trends in Children Living in Shared Households

Using data from the 1996–2008 panels of the Survey of Income and Program Participation and the 2009–2016 American Community Survey, we examine trends in U.S. children living in shared households (living with adults beyond their nuclear (parent/parent’s partner/sibling) family). We find that although the share of children who lived in a shared household increased over this period, the rise was nearly entirely driven by an increase in three-generation/multigenerational households (coresident grandparent(s), parent(s), and child). In 1996, 5.7 % of children lived in a three-generation household; by 2016, 9.8 % did likewise—more than a 4 percentage point increase. More economically advantaged groups (older, more educated mothers, married households) experienced the largest percentage increase in three-generation coresidence, although correlates of coresidence remained largely stable. Decomposition analyses suggest that the rise in Social Security receipt and changes in parental relationship status (less marriage, more single parenthood) most strongly explained the increase in three-generation households. Given the dramatic rise in three-generation households, more research is needed to understand the consequences of these living arrangements for children, their parents, and their grandparents.     

New realities of the American family

The demographic, social, and economic characteristics of American families have changed dramatically over the past few decades. While the male breadwinner/female homemaker model was long traditionally typical,l contemporary families may be openly made up of single-parents, remarried couples, unmarried couples, stepfamilies, foster families, extended or multigenerational families, or 2 families within 1 household. Families are now most likely to have 3 or fewer children, a mother employed outside of the home, and a 50% chance of parental divorce before the children are grown. These trends are common not only in America, but in most industrialized nations around the world. In fact, family trends are so fluid that the US Census Bureau and workplace policy find it difficult to keep pace. This report presents and discusses social and demographic trends behind the ever-changing face of the American family. Households and types of families are further defined, as are the living arrangements of children, young adults, and the elderly. Marriage, divorce, and remarriage trends, age at marriage rates, and interracial marriage are then discussed. Next examined are declining family size, teenage parents, contraception and abortion, unwed mothers, and technological routes to parenthood. The changing roles of family members and family economic well-being are discussed in sections preceding closing comments on the outlook for the American family.     

Who Gets Custody Now? Dramatic Changes in Children’s Living Arrangements After Divorce

This article reexamines the living arrangements of children following their parents’ divorce, using Wisconsin Court Records, updating an analysis that showed relatively small but significant increases in shared custody in the late 1980s and early 1990s. These changes have accelerated markedly in the intervening years: between 1988 and 2008, the proportion of mothers granted sole physical custody fell substantially, the proportion of parents sharing custody increased dramatically, and father–sole custody remained relatively stable. We explore changes in the correlates of alternative custody outcomes, showing that some results from the earlier analysis still hold (for example, cases with higher total family income are more likely to have shared custody), but other differences have lessened (shared-custody cases have become less distinctive as they have become more common). Despite the considerable changes in marriage and divorce patterns over this period, we do not find strong evidence that the changes in custody are related to changes in the characteristics of families experiencing a divorce; rather, changes in custody may be the result of changes in social norms and the process by which custody is determined.