Fractional approaches for the distribution of innovation sequence of INAR(1) processes

Abstract

In this paper, we present a fractional decomposition of the probability generating function of the innovation process of the first-order non-negative integer-valued autoregressive [INAR(1)] process to obtain the corresponding probability mass function. We also provide a comprehensive review of integer-valued time series models, based on the concept of thinning operators with geometric-type marginals. In particular, we develop two fractional approaches to obtain the distribution of innovation processes of the INAR(1) model and show that the distribution of the innovations sequence has geometric-type distribution. These approaches are discussed in detail and illustrated through a few examples.     

Correction

In many probability and mathematical statistics courses the probability generating function (PGF) is typically overlooked in favor of the more utilized moment generating function. However, for certain types of random variables, the PGF may be more appealing. For example, sums of independent, non-negative, integer-valued random variables with finite support are easily studied via the PGF. In particular, the exact distribution of the sum can easily be calculated. Several illustrative classroom examples, with varying degrees of difficulty, are presented. All of the examples have been implemented using the R statistical software package.     

ANOVA Problems with Simple Numbers

This article shows how to construct simple numerical exercises in balanced and unequally replicated one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) (and experimental design) such that the estimated effects and residual standard deviations are preassigned whole numbers. Methods for generating single samples and simple linear regressions with exact estimates are already available (see Edwards 1959, Searle and Firey 1980, Posten 1982, and Read and Riley 1983). In this article the basic method of Read and Riley is extended to one-way ANOVA. For small numbers of treatments and replications and small residual standard deviations, tables of basic data are supplied that greatly expedite the construction of ANOVA layouts; the same methods may easily be applied, and the tables extended, to generate exercises involving larger numbers if required. The sets of estimated effects are essentially arbitrary, and so the significance or insignificance of main effects, or of contrasts thereof, can be illustrated by data sets designed for the purpose. This facility is a new and helpful aid to instruction.     

Periodic integer-valued bilinear time series model

This paper deals with the study of some probabilistic and statistical properties of a periodic integer-valued diagonal bilinear model. The existence of a periodically strict stationary integer-valued process is shown. Sufficient conditions for the periodically stationary, both in the first and second orders, are established. The closed-forms of the mean and the second moment are obtained. The closed-form of the periodic autocovariance function is established. The Yule–Walker estimations of the underlying parameters are obtained. A simulation study is provided.     

BAYESIAN ANALYSIS OF A FRACTIONAL COINTEGRATION MODEL

The concept of fractional cointegration, whereby deviations from an equilibrium relationship follow a fractionally integrated process, has attracted some attention of late. The extended concept allows cointegration to be associated with mean reversion in the error, rather than requiring the more stringent condition of stationarity. This paper presents a Bayesian method for conducting inference about fractional cointegration. The method is based on an approximation of the exact likelihood, with a Jeffreys prior being used to offset identification problems. Numerical results are produced via a combination of Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms. The procedure is applied to several purchasing power parity relations, with substantial evidence found in favor of parity reversion.     

Generalized Poisson integer-valued autoregressive processes with structural changes

In this paper, we introduce a new first-order generalized Poisson integer-valued autoregressive process, for modeling integer-valued time series exhibiting a piecewise structure and overdispersion. Basic probabilistic and statistical properties of this model are discussed. Conditional least squares and conditional maximum likelihood estimators are derived. The asymptotic properties of the estimators are established. Moreover, two special cases of the process are discussed. Finally, some numerical results of the estimates and a real data example are presented.     

A bivariate integer-valued long-memory model for high-frequency financial count data

We propose a bivariate integer-valued fractional integrated (BINFIMA) model to account for the long-memory property and apply the model to high-frequency stock transaction data. The BINFIMA model allows for both positive and negative correlations between the counts. The unconditional and conditional first- and second-order moments are given. The model is capable of capturing the covariance between and within intra-day time series of high-frequency transaction data due to macroeconomic news and news related to a specific stock. Empirically, it is found that Ericsson B has mean recursive process while AstraZeneca has long-memory property.     

Integer-valued moving average (INMA) process

A simple model for a stationary sequence of dependent integer-valued random variables {X_n} is given. The sequence to be called integer-valued moving average (INMA) process, is taken as the “survivals” of i.i.d. non-negative integervalued random variables. It is argued that the model’s structure reflects to some extent the mechanism generating real life data for many counting process and consequently it is useful for modelling such processes. Various properties for the special case in which {X_n} is Poisson INMA (1) process, such as the joint distribution, regression, time reversibility, along with the conditional and partial correlations, are discussed in details. Extension of the INMA of first order to higher order moving average is considered.     

Binomial AR(1) processes with innovational outliers

Abstract

Binomial integer-valued AR processes have been well studied in the literature, but there is little progress in modeling bounded integer-valued time series with outliers. In this paper, we first review some basic properties of the binomial integer-valued AR(1) process and then we introduce binomial integer-valued AR(1) processes with two classes of innovational outliers. We focus on the joint conditional least squares (CLS) and the joint conditional maximum likelihood (CML) estimates of models’ parameters and the probability of occurrence of the outlier. Their large-sample properties are illustrated by simulation studies. Artificial and real data examples are used to demonstrate good performances of the proposed models.     

A note on a universal random variate generator for integer-valued random variables

A universal generator for integer-valued square-integrable random variables is introduced. The generator relies on a rejection technique based on a generalization of the inversion formula for integer-valued random variables. This approach allows to create a dominating probability function, whose evaluation solely involves two integrals depending on the characteristic function of the random variable to be generated. The proposal gives rise to a simple algorithm which may be implemented in a few code lines and which may show good performance when the classical families of distributions—such as the Poisson and the Binomial—are considered. In addition, applications to the Poisson-Tweedie and the Luria-Delbrück distributions are provided.     

A simple exact method for testing hypotheses about the shape parameter of a log-normal distribution

The log-normal distribution is a useful lifetime distribution in many areas. The survival function of a log-normal distribution cannot be expressed in close forms. This makes it difficult to develop exact statistical methods for parameter estimation when censoring occurs. This article proposes a simple and exact method for conducting statistical tests about the shape parameter of a log-normal distribution. Necessary tables are provided based on Monte Carlo simulation. The method can be used for type II censored data. Comparing with existing exact methods, this method uses fewer tables and is easier for calculations.     

On first-order integer-valued autoregressive process with Katz family innovations

This paper considers the first-order integer-valued autoregressive (INAR) process with Katz family innovations. This family of INAR processes includes a broad class of INAR(1) processes with Poisson, negative binomial, and binomial innovations, respectively, featuring equi-, over-, and under-dispersion. Its probabilistic properties such as ergodicity and stationarity are investigated and the formula of the marginal mean and variance is provided. Further, a statistical process control procedure based on the cumulative sum control chart is considered to monitor autocorrelated count processes. A simulation and real data analysis are conducted for illustration.     

Accurate computation of single and product moments of order statistics under progressive censoring

An accurate procedure is proposed to calculate approximate moments of progressive order statistics in the context of statistical inference for lifetime models. The study analyses the performance of power series expansion to approximate the moments for location and scale distributions with high precision and smaller deviations with respect to the exact values. A comparative analysis between exact and approximate methods is shown using some tables and figures. The different approximations are applied in two situations. First, we consider the problem of computing the large sample variance–covariance matrix of maximum likelihood estimators. We also use the approximations to obtain progressively censored sampling plans for log-normal distributed data. These problems illustrate that the presented procedure is highly useful to compute the moments with precision for numerous censoring patterns and, in many cases, is the only valid method because the exact calculation may not be applicable.     

On the accuracy of approximate studentization

With a parametric model, a measure of departure for an interest parameter is often easily constructed but frequently depends in distribution on nuisance parameters; the elimination of such nuisance parameter effects is a central problem of statistical inference. Fraser & Wong (1993) proposed a nuisance-averaging or approximate Studentization method for eliminating the nuisance parameter effects. They showed that, for many standard problems where an exact answer is available, the averaging method reproduces the exact answer. Also they showed that, if the exact answer is unavailable, as say in the gamma-mean problem, the averaging method provides a simple approximation which is very close to that obtained from third order asymptotic theory. The general asymptotic accuracy, however, of the method has not been examined. In this paper, we show in a general asymptotic context that the averaging method is asymptotically a second order procedure for eliminating the effects of nuisance parameters.     

A Proposal for a New Bound for Discrete Distributions

In this work we re-examine some classical bounds for non negative integer-valued random variables by means of information theoretic or maxentropic techniques using fractional moments as constraints. The proposed new bound, no more analytically expressible in terms of moments or moment generating function (mgf), is built by mixing classical bounds and the Maximum Entropy (ME) approximant of the underlying distribution; such a new bound is able to exploit optimally all the information content provided by the sequence of given moments or by the mgf. Particular care will be devoted to obtain fractional moments from the available information given in terms of integer moments and/or moment generating function. Numerical examples show clearly that the bound improvement involving the ME approximant based on fractional moments is not trivial.     

Random rounded integer-valued autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic process

The statistical literature on the analysis of discrete variate time series has concentrated mainly on parametric models, that is the conditional probability mass function is assumed to belong to a parametric family. Generally, these parametric models impose strong assumptions on the relationship between the conditional mean and variance. To generalize these implausible assumptions, this paper instead considers a more realistic semiparametric model, called random rounded integer-valued autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (RRINARCH) model, where there are essentially no assumptions on the relationship between the conditional mean and variance. The new model has several advantages: (a) it provides a coherent semiparametric framework for discrete variate time series, in which the conditional mean and variance can be modeled separately; (b) it allows negative values both for the series and its autocorrelation function; (c) its autocorrelation structure is the same as that of a standard autoregressive (AR) process; (d) standard software for its estimation is directly applicable. For the new model, conditions for stationarity, ergodicity and the existence of moments are established and the consistency and asymptotic normality of the conditional least squares estimator are proved. Simulation experiments are carried out to assess the performance of the model. The analyses of real data sets illustrate the flexibility and usefulness of the RRINARCH model for obtaining more realistic forecast means and variances.     

Higher-order moments,cumulants and spectral densities of the NGINAR(1) process

The motivation for time series with geometric marginal distributions arises from noting that the Poisson distribution is not always suitable for the modeling and analysis of integer-valued time series. The NGINAR(1) process that has been introduced by Risti? et al. (2009) represents a class of such time series. Joint higher-order (factorial) moments and cumulants with some other related statistical measures of the NGINAR(1) process are constructed. Also, the spectral and bispectral density functions of this process are investigated, including their nonparametric estimators, using the multitapering method. A real data example of the nonparametric multitaper spectral estimates is investigated, with a discussion of the results obtained.     

Exact null distributions of quadratic distribution-free statistics for two-way classification

We present new techniques for computing exact distributions of ‘Friedman-type’ statistics. Representing the null distribution by a generating function allows for the use of general, not necessarily integer-valued rank scores. Moreover, we use symmetry properties of the multivariate generating function to accelerate computations. The methods also work for cases with ties and for permutation statistics. We discuss some applications: the classical Friedman rank test, the normal scores test, the Friedman permutation test, the Cochran–Cox test and the Kepner–Robinson test. Finally, we shortly discuss self-made software for computing exact p-values.     

Generalized RCINAR(p) Process with Signed Thinning Operator

We propose a new integer-valued time series process, called generalized pth-order random coefficient integer-valued autoregressive process with signed thinning operator. This kind of process is appropriate for modeling negative integer-valued time series; strict stationarity and ergodicity of the process are established. Estimators of the model's parameters are derived and their properties are studied via simulation. We apply our process to a real data example.     

Multinomial Selection for Comparison with a Standard

The multinomial selection problem is considered under the formulation of comparison with a standard, where each system is required to be compared to a single system, referred to as a “standard,” as well as to other alternative systems. The goal is to identify systems that are better than the standard, or to retain the standard when it is equal to or better than the other alternatives in terms of the probability to generate the largest or smallest performance measure. We derive new multinomial selection procedures for comparison with a standard to be applied in different scenarios, including exact small-sample procedure and approximate large-sample procedure. Empirical results and the proof are presented to demonstrate the statistical validity of our procedures. The tables of the procedure parameters and the corresponding exact probability of correct selection are also provided.