Federal statistics in a complex environment: the case of the 1980 census

A discussion of the 1980 U.S. census is presented. The authors suggest that the taking of a national census is not just a statistical exercise, but an exercise involving ethics, epistemology, law, and politics. They contend that conducting a national census can be defined as an ill-structured problem in which the various complexities imposed by multidisciplinarity cannot be separated. "The 1980 census is discussed as an ill-structured problem, and a method for treating such problems is presented, within which statistical information is only one component."     

Censuses of population and housing in Africa: some issues and problems

"A census of population and housing, which contributes immensely to the development of social statistics and national statistical services in general, has been carried out at least once in every African country except Chad. The common issues and widespread practices of design, implementation, processing, and evaluation of this census are reviewed. Also reviewed are the problems that arise at each of these stages of conducting the census; problems arising as a result of the socio-economic and physical peculiarities of African conditions."     

Linear sensitivity measures in statistical disclosure control

The mathematical properties of a class of functions called linear sensitivity measures are investigated. These measures are applied to the problem of maintaining the statistical confidentiality of respondents to a census or statistical survey such as an establishment-based economic survey. Sensitivity criteria in practical use are cast in this setting.     

Sampling within households in household surveys

Summary.  The number of people to select within selected households has significant consequences for the conduct and output of household surveys. The operational and data quality implications of this choice are carefully considered in many surveys, but the effect on statistical efficiency is not well understood. The usual approach is to select all people in each selected household, where operational and data quality concerns make this feasible. If not, one person is usually selected from each selected household. We find that this strategy is not always justified, and we develop intermediate designs between these two extremes. Current practices were developed when household survey field procedures needed to be simple and robust; however, more complex designs are now feasible owing to the increasing use of computer-assisted interviewing. We develop more flexible designs by optimizing survey cost, based on a simple cost model, subject to a required variance for an estimator of population total. The innovation lies in the fact that household sample sizes are small integers, which creates challenges in both design and estimation. The new methods are evaluated empirically by using census and health survey data, showing considerable improvement over existing methods in some cases.     

Demography and criminality

The author defines interests shared by the sciences of demography and criminology, with a focus on the importance of information such as age, sex, migration, and fertility as indicators in the study of criminology. Statistical methods used in each field are compared using data from the 1989 USSR census, statistical reports, and selected surveys conducted by the author.     

关于人口统计调查方法体系存在的问题和改革设想

我国现行的人口统计调查方法体系是“以经常性的人口抽样调查为主体,以人口普查为基础,重点调查等为补充的多种方法的运用”,但随着经济社会的快速发展,“以普查为基础,经常性抽样调查为主体"的人口统计调查方法体系,与政府、社会对人口信息多层次、精细化、时效性的需求变得不适应,在实践中显露出矛盾和问题。本文以下将对当前人口普查和人口变动情况抽样调查,在人口统计中作用和存在问题做出分析,在此基础上提出人口统计的改革设想,并落实到具体的解决办法,以2020年第七次人口普查为契机,建立《人口统计与管理服务数据平台》,并结合社区网格化管理进行年度更新,取得年度全国、省级及省级以下的常住人口数据;同时改革人口抽样调查的内容,结合手机信令大数据在人口统计中的应用,完善人口统计调查方法体系。     

Bayesian networks for imputation

Summary.  Bayesian networks are particularly useful for dealing with high dimensional statistical problems. They allow a reduction in the complexity of the phenomenon under study by representing joint relationships between a set of variables through conditional relationships between subsets of these variables. Following Thibaudeau and Winkler we use Bayesian networks for imputing missing values. This method is introduced to deal with the problem of the consistency of imputed values: preservation of statistical relationships between variables ( statistical consistency ) and preservation of logical constraints in data ( logical consistency ). We perform some experiments on a subset of anonymous individual records from the 1991 UK population census.     

A multi-resolution census algorithm for calculating vortex statistics in turbulent flows

Summary.  The fundamental equations that model turbulent flow do not provide much insight into the size and shape of observed turbulent structures. We investigate the efficient and accurate representation of structures in two-dimensional turbulence by applying statistical models directly to the simulated vorticity field. Rather than extract the coherent portion of the image from the background variation, as in the classical signal-plus-noise model, we present a model for individual vortices using the non-decimated discrete wavelet transform. A template image, which is supplied by the user, provides the features to be extracted from the vorticity field. By transforming the vortex template into the wavelet domain, specific characteristics that are present in the template, such as size and symmetry, are broken down into components that are associated with spatial frequencies. Multivariate multiple linear regression is used to fit the vortex template to the vorticity field in the wavelet domain. Since all levels of the template decomposition may be used to model each level in the field decomposition, the resulting model need not be identical to the template. Application to a vortex census algorithm that records quantities of interest (such as size, peak amplitude and circulation) as the vorticity field evolves is given. The multiresolution census algorithm extracts coherent structures of all shapes and sizes in simulated vorticity fields and can reproduce known physical scaling laws when processing a set of vorticity fields that evolve over time.     

Where do people live?

"Population counts for small areas, as in a census, are directly affected by the rules that determine where each person is to be counted. Clear rules are needed for groups such as migratory workers, persons whose work requires long absences from the family home, homeless persons, military personnel, persons maintaining two or more homes, persons in hospitals, correctional, or other institutions, crews of sea-going vessels, and others. The rules may have a bearing on family and household statistics and statistics on socioeconomic status as well as on counts of numbers of people."     

A controlled donor imputation system for a one-number census

Summary. The 2001 UK census was a one-number census. An integral part of such a process has been the creation of a transparent census database that has been adjusted for the underenumeration in the 2001 census. The methodology for creating this database is based on a controlled donor imputation system that imputes individuals and households estimated to have been missed in the census. This paper describes this methodology and provides results from a statistical assessment of its performance using data that realistically simulate the census process.     

得失与启示：我国统计学博士学位论文选题统计分析

 统计学博士是统计科研的中坚力量之一,其博士论文在一定程度上反映了当时我国统计学科研的热点和前沿,代表着我国统计教育的先进水平。本文通过对1987-2009年509篇统计学博士学位论文的选题及其研究内容进行统计,分析其变动规律和特点,总结选题的得失与启示,为今后科学选题以及进一步深入开展统计学术研究提供参考依据。     

捕获-再捕获模型的统计学原理

捕获-再捕获模型由国外学者首创,最初用于野生动物总体规模估计,后来经过改进逐步应用于人口普查质量评估和其他统计领域。为了正确使用该模型,采取独一无二的方法,从试验背景、组格概率和边缘概率之间的关系、组格条件概率、条件多项分布和条件似然函数等方面对其进行全面解读和研究。研究表明:使用捕获-再捕获模型必须遵守三项理论原则:即总体封闭原则、个体同质原则、独立性原则;对实际问题与理论原则之间存在的差距必须做三件事情:即发现实际问题与理论原则之间的所有分歧点、评估各个分歧点问题的严重程度、寻找解决问题的办法。     

《统计研究》之统计研究——《统计研究》创刊三十周年回眸和展望

《统计研究》作为我国统计学界的权威学术刊物,自创刊之日起,一直不遗余力地促进着统计学科的发展,为统计科学的研究和交流提供了良好的平台,记录了经济统计和数理统计研究的发展轨迹,记载了统计学科成长、发展和壮大的历史,造就了一大批统计学术精英。30年来,《统计研究》共刊载文章4640篇,涉及统计学研究的各个领域,加快了与其他学科的融合,参与成果发表的作者单位遍布国内外,提升了《统计研究》的国际影响力;《统计研究》各项期刊科学指标发展态势良好,其质量和影响力在统计类刊物中一路领先,在经济类权威刊物中,也在起步较晚的情况下稳步发展,取得了长足的进步,在权威刊物中占据一席之地。《统计研究》应乘势而上,借助统计学成为一级学科之势,将其建成国家一级期刊。     

Classification by race and Spanish origin in the 1980 census and its impact on white and nonwhite rates

A basic change concerning the racial classification of persons of Spanish origin used in the 1980 U.S. census is examined for its impact on white and nonwhite population counts, particularly in urban areas. "Arrest rates by race for central city Phoenix together with 1980 census data by race and ethnicity for Phoenix and 11 other central cities are used to illustrate the substantive effect of changes in the white and 'other race' counts produced by this change in procedure." The authors consider "remedies for the problems faced by those using published census data..., and one possibility for creating comparable rates is presented. Closely related complications created by the failure of the Office of Management and Budget to arrive at a single, logical statistical standard for the classification of U.S. residents by race and ethnicity are also identified."     

基于行政记录人口普查方法的国际比较

开展基于行政记录的人口普查被视为有效破解传统人口普查难题的途径之一,亦是顺应大数据时代充分挖掘人口行政记录资源的必然之选。本文较系统地阐述了基于行政记录人口普查方法的基本框架,尝试对“完全模式”人口普查和“组合模式”人口普查的实施步骤进行解析。基于此,本文选择芬兰、奥地利、瑞士、荷兰四个国家,分普查基本情况、行政记录类型选择和基本记录库形成、已存在统计记录系统基本结构、专门组织的抽样调查设计、不同系统间的链接途径、新人口统计信息质量评估方法等六个维度,对实施基于行政记录的人口普查方法进行了国家比较。     

A frequency domain comparison of estimation methods for gaussian fields

This paper demonstrates that well-known parameter estimation methods for Gaussian fields place different emphasis on the high and low frequency components of the data. As a consequence, the relative importance of the frequencies under the objective of the analysis should be taken into account when selecting an estimation method, in addition to other considerations such as statistical and computational efficiency. The paper also shows that when noise is added to the Gaussian field, maximum pseudolikelihood automatically sets the smoothing parameter of the model equal to one. A simulation study then indicates that generalised cross-validation is more robust than maximum likelihood un-

der model misspecification in smoothing and image restoration problems. This has implications for Bayesian procedures since these use the same weightings of the frequencies as the likelihood.     

经济普查应该在科学设计和高效组织下确保数据质量

 数据质量是经济普查的生命线。本文在全面总结第一次经济普查工作经验的基础上，紧紧围绕实现第二次经济普查的任务和目标，从总结、改进、精简和提高的角度，深刻剖析经济普查的重点和难点问题，指出要从科学设计和高效组织等方面采取具体措施来更有效地开展新形势下的经济普查。     

Recursive and en-bloc approaches to signal extraction

In the literature on unobservable component models , three main statistical instruments have been used for signal extraction: fixed interval smoothing (FIS), which derives from Kalman's seminal work on optimal state-space filter theory in the time domain; Wiener-Kolmogorov-Whittle optimal signal extraction (OSE) theory, which is normally set in the frequency domain and dominates the field of classical statistics; and regularization , which was developed mainly by numerical analysts but is referred to as 'smoothing' in the statistical literature (such as smoothing splines, kernel smoothers and local regression). Although some minor recognition of the interrelationship between these methods can be discerned from the literature, no clear discussion of their equivalence has appeared. This paper exposes clearly the interrelationships between the three methods; highlights important properties of the smoothing filters used in signal extraction; and stresses the advantages of the FIS algorithms as a practical solution to signal extraction and smoothing problems. It also emphasizes the importance of the classical OSE theory as an analytical tool for obtaining a better understanding of the problem of signal extraction.     

中国经济普查的组织机制与 数据质量控制

 本研究通过梳理2004年中国经济普查中的技术环节和组织环节，说明将普查的全过程纳入中国政府的行政系列，从组织体系和技术组织层面上保障了普查的数据质量；但这种行政组织方式也存在三个一般统计调查不宜发生的“调整性误差”、“局部整体性误差”和“心理倾向性误差”。要消除这些误差就要完善政绩考核评价体系，科学定位经济普查功能，改革经济普查组织方式，提高统计部门独立性，改进普查经费保障机制、数据采集方式。