The Teacher's Corner: A Simplified Method of Solving Simple and Multiple Regression Equations

An introductory statistics course that emphasized consistency of student requirements and diversity of instructors was taught at the University of New Hampshire. Over a four-year period, 24 instructors from 12 departments taught this course. Student requirements remained essentially the same from term to term or instructor to instructor because exams were prepared by sampling question frames that were largely independent of instructors. Student performance appeared to be buffered against instructor variation through a combination of visible question frames, abundant tutorial help, and exams that could be retaken.     

The Hausdorff Space and Applied Statistics: A View from the U.S.S.R.

The article focuses on the debate in the pages of the Soviet statistical journal Vestnik Statistiki as to the existence and relevance of applied statistics as a separate scientific discipline. The contents of four letters to the editor and relevant editorial comments that appeared in this journal between October 1985 and July 1987 are analyzed.     

统计能力建设与国家统计发展战略

在信息时代中,国家统计系统已经成为一国信息体系的重要组成部分,政府、企业、居民对统计信息的需求空前膨胀,要求也不断提高。但是在像中国这样的发展中国家中,统计发展水平比较低,统计系统面临的挑战日益巨大。实施国家统计发展战略,是开展统计能力建设的重要平台,有助于迅速改善统计系统的绩效。中国应该尽快制定和实施国家统计改革与发展战略,本文对国家统计发展战略的内涵、基本原则、核心要素和实施步骤等内容作了详细的介绍。     

The Teaching of Statistics in England: Report of the Royal Statistical Society

Some experiences with the use of student projects in experimental design courses at Wisconsin are described. Each student is given the opportunity of selecting a problem of direct interest to him/her, designing and performing an experiment, collecting and analyzing the data. Some ideas with regard to pedagogy and the use of simulated data are also discussed.     

An approximation to the distribution of the ratio of two general quadratic forms with application

Based on mixed cumulants up to order six, this paper provides a four moment approximation to the distribution of a ratio of two general quadratic forms in normal variables. The approximation is applied to calculate the percentile points of modified F-test statistics for testing treatment effects when standard F-ratio test is misleading because of dependence among observations. For the special case, when data is generated by an AR(1) process, the approximation is evaluated by a simulation study. For the general SARMA (p,q)(P,Q)_s process, a modified F-test statistic Is given, and its distribution for the (0,1)(0,l)₁₂ process, is approximated by the moment approximation technique.     

中国官方统计数据质量问题调查研究——基于结构方程模型

利用多个指标来分别测量官方统计数据质量及与其有关的统计人员综合水平、统计调查技术水平和统计信息利用度,在此基础上研究四者之间的关系,分析构成中国官方统计数据质量不高的成因.结果表明:统计人员综合水平、统计调查技术水平和统计信息利用度之间存在很强的相关关系;统计制度而非技术是造成当前中国官方统计数据质量不高的主要原因.     

统计调查课程的现状与调整思路

文章从统计调查课程设置的现状出发,介绍了当前随着社会经济的发展和统计调查方法体系的改革,统计调查理论体系以及统计调查课程设置的不足,叙述了统计调查课程调整的思路。要实施这个思路,必须重视统计调查对象内容的变化,并注重借鉴国外成熟的经验。为适应形势的发展,随着现行统计调查方法体系的调整与完善,对统计调查课程也要作相应的调整。     

Hijacking Planes to Cuba: An Up-Dated Version of the Birthday Problem

Modern desk calculators compute distribution functions for many of the standard tabled distributions. Two such machines and some of their capabilities are discussed. Generally more is available from the calculators than is found in voluminous tables. One of the biggest advantages of the machines over tables arises from their capacity to compute probabilities for the two parameter F distribution, a set of values that is cumbersome to tabulate.     

Confidence distributions applied to propagating uncertainty to inference based on estimating the local false discovery rate: A fiducial continuum from confidence sets to empirical Bayes set estimates as the number of comparisons increases

Empirical Bayes estimates of the local false discovery rate can reflect uncertainty about the estimated prior by supplementing their Bayesian posterior probabilities with confidence levels as posterior probabilities. This use of coherent fiducial inference with hierarchical models generates set estimators that propagate uncertainty to varying degrees. Some of the set estimates approach estimates from plug-in empirical Bayes methods for high numbers of comparisons and can come close to the usual confidence sets given a sufficiently low number of comparisons.     

An application of ranked set sampling when observations from several distributions are to be included in the sample

ABSTRACT

In this article, we propose a method to estimate the common location and common scale parameters of several distributions using suitably defined ranked set sampling. Efficiency comparison of the obtained estimators with some of the standard estimators is made. Illustration of the results to real life data sets is also described.     

On the mixtures of Weibull and Pareto (IV) distribution: An alternative to Pareto distribution

Finite mixture models have provided a reasonable tool to model various types of observed phenomena, specially those which are random in nature. In this article, a finite mixture of Weibull and Pareto (IV) distribution is considered and studied. Some structural properties of the resulting model are discussed including estimation of the model parameters via expectation maximization (EM) algorithm. A real-life data application exhibits the fact that in certain situations, this mixture model might be a better alternative than the rival popular models.     

The kullback - leibler approximation of the marginal posterior density: An application to the linear functional model

The main purpose of this paper is to introduce the Kullback - Leibler approximation to investigate the estimation of the unobserved x values in a simple linear regression model when the variables are measured vith error. The mean and the variance of the Kullback- Leibler approximatin are shown to coincide with the estimators considered by Fuller, (1987, p.38). The Kulback-Leibler approximation in the modal approximation (Kass et al., 1990) of the exact marginal posterior of the real value x.     

抗生素使用对渔民生态补偿受偿意愿影响分析——以安徽巢湖调查数据为例

基于安徽巢湖微观调查数据,从削减渔业负外部性行为和对渔民减少抗生素使用导致的收入损失给予补偿的视角,采用多变量的柯布-道格拉斯生产函数,分析抗生素使用等相关因素对渔民受偿意愿的影响。结果表明:在抗生素使用差别限定条件下,补偿意愿与抗生素使用限定强度呈负相关,受偿金额与限定尺度则呈正相关;在不同利益主体受偿背景下,渔业年收入对受偿意愿影响较为显著,收入引力越大抗生素投放越少,期望受偿标准越低;受教育程度、气候条件对受偿意愿呈正向影响。基于以上研究结论,提出实行差异化补偿政策,以提高受偿渔民满意度。     

Publication Decisions Revisited: The Effect of the Outcome of Statistical Tests on the Decision to Publish and Vice Versa

This article presents evidence that published results of scientific investigations are not a representative sample of results of all scientific studies. Research studies from 11 major journals demonstrate the existence of biases that favor studies that observe effects that, on statistical evaluation, have a low probability of erroneously rejecting the so-called null hypothesis (H ₀). This practice makes the probability of erroneously rejecting H ₀ different for the reader than for the investigator. It introduces two biases in the interpretation of the scientific literature: one due to multiple repetition of studies with false hypothesis, and one due to failure to publish smaller and less significant outcomes of tests of a true hypotheses. These practices distort the results of literature surveys and of meta-analyses. These results also indicate that practice leading to publication bias have not changed over a period of 30 years.     

社会保障对农民工家庭城市生活消费的影响--以举家迁移农民工家庭为例

基于辽宁省农民工调研数据,采用OLS回归、Heckman两步法和处理效应模型,分析了社会保障对举家迁移农民工家庭城市生活消费的影响,并采用分位数回归法进一步考察了社会保障在不同消费水平上对家庭消费决策机制产生的影响。研究表明,社会保障对农民工家庭生活消费有显著的正向影响;有社会保障家庭的消费决策明显区别于无社会保障家庭,这主要表现为人均收入、人均耕地面积、户主年龄和人均受教育年限等家庭特征对有社会保障家庭和无社会保障家庭生活消费的影响存在明显差异。     

林业碳汇经济价值评价及其影响因素分析——基于碳控排企业支付意愿的调查

林业碳汇的经济价值是决定林业碳汇生产和交易的重要指标。基于浙江省温州市碳控排企业调查数据,运用条件价值法(CVM),引入计划行为理论,从碳控排企业支付意愿视角探讨林业碳汇经济价值及其影响因素。结果表明,碳控排企业对林业碳汇的支付意愿是"是否愿意支付"和"愿意支付多少金额"两个决策过程的统一。受访企业负责人个体特征、企业特征、气候变化认知、行为态度、主观规范变量显著正向影响碳控排企业是否愿意为林业碳汇支付;受访企业负责人个体特征、企业特征、林业碳汇认知、行为态度、知觉行为控制、行为经验变量显著正向影响碳控排企业的林业碳汇支付金额,反向行为执行意向则产生显著负向影响,利用PCE模型计算得到其平均支付金额,即林业碳汇经济价值为47.36元/t·CO_2。