New Developments in Statistical Computing

In 1885, Sir Francis Galton first defined the term “regression” and completed the theory of bivariate correlation. A decade later, Karl Pearson developed the index that we still use to measure correlation, Pearson's r. Our article is written in recognition of the 100th anniversary of Galton's first discussion of regression and correlation. We begin with a brief history. Then we present 13 different formulas, each of which represents a different computational and conceptual definition of r. Each formula suggests a different way of thinking about this index, from algebraic, geometric, and trigonometric settings. We show that Pearson's r (or simple functions of r) may variously be thought of as a special type of mean, a special type of variance, the ratio of two means, the ratio of two variances, the slope of a line, the cosine of an angle, and the tangent to an ellipse, and may be looked at from several other interesting perspectives.     

Criteria and Considerations in the Evaluation of Statistical Program Packages

Consider a random experiment with N equally likely outcomes. This article derives conditions in terms of the prime factorization of N for the existence of classes of pairwise independent and mutually independent events. Some examples are given to elucidate the conditions.     

Aspects of Statistical Computing: What Packages for the 1980's Ought to Do

A wish list of desirable statistical computing capabilities is presented. This may help one question which of these capabilities can be satisfied by existing packages, which might be met through reasonable extensions to these packages, which might require substantial new development, and which ought to be supplied by the computing environment rather than the packages. These questions are explored, taking into account the nature of the statistical work and the choices presented by technology. Attention is given to the barriers to be overcome if future statistical packages are to take full advantage of new technology.     

Data-driven tests of uniformity on product manifolds

Data-driven versions of Sobolev tests of uniformity on compact Riemannian manifolds are reviewed and their large-sample asymptotic properties are given. A variant which is suitable for product manifolds is introduced. Data-driven goodness-of-fit tests of multivariate distributions are derived from data-driven tests of uniformity on tori.     

An Efficient Method to Generate Data and Compute Exact P-Values in Goodness-of-Fit Testing

In this article, we use a characterization of the set of sample counts that do not match with the null hypothesis of the test of goodness of fit. Two direct applications arise: first, to instantaneously generate data sets whose corresponding asymptotic P-values belong to a certain pre-defined range; and second, to compute exact P-values for this test in an efficient way. We present both issues before illustrating them by analyzing a couple of data sets. Method's efficiency is also assessed by means of simulations. We focus on Pearson's X ² statistic but the case of likelihood-ratio statistic is also discussed.     

The questions of fit in the gregor mendel controversy

Ever since R. A. Fisher published his 1936 article , "Has Mendel's Work Been Rediscovered?", historians of both biclogy and statistics have been fascinated by the surprisingly high conformity between Gregor (Johann) Mendel's observed and expected ratios in his famous experiments with peas. Fisher's calculatftl x² statistic of the experiments, taken as a whole, suggested that results on a par or better than those Mendel reported coultl only be expected to occur about three times in every 100,000 attempts. The ensuing controversy as to whether or not the good Father "sophisticated" his data has continued to this very day. In recent years the controversy has focused upon the more technical question of what underlying genetic arrangement Mendel actually studied.

The statistical issues of the controversy are exam:.led in am historical and comparative perspective. The changes the controversy has gone through are evaluated, and the nature of its current, more biological, status is briefly discussed.     

New Goodness of Fit Tests Based on Stochastic EDF

A new approach of randomization is proposed to construct goodness of fit tests generally. Some new test statistics are derived, which are based on the stochastic empirical distribution function (EDF). Note that the stochastic EDF for a set of given sample observations is a randomized distribution function. By substituting the stochastic EDF for the classical EDF in the Kolmogorov–Smirnov, Cramér–von Mises, Anderson–Darling, Berk–Jones, and Einmahl–Mckeague statistics, randomized statistics are derived, of which the qth quantile and the expectation are chosen as test statistics. In comparison to existing tests, it is shown, by a simulation study, that the new test statistics are generally more powerful than the corresponding ones based on the classical EDF or modified EDF in most cases.     

A comparison of suicide patterns in Australia and Hong Kong

We analyse the patterns of 6564 suicides in Hong Kong and 23671 suicides in Australia for the period 1981–1993. Within the unifying framework of logistic regression we investigate how suicide rates vary with marital status and age and how these patterns vary over time and between the two cultures. The main significant differences between the two cultures are that rates are higher in Australia, rates for males are much higher than for females in Australia but only slightly higher in Hong Kong, in Hong Kong the oldest age group has the highest suicide rate unlike in Australia and the protective effects of marriage are larger in Australia.     

Use of an empirical probability generating function for testing a Poisson model

We present a test of the fit to a Poisson model based on the empirical probability generating function (epgf). We derive the limiting distribution of the test under the Poisson hypothesis and show that a rescaling of it is approximately independent of the mean parameter in the Poisson distribution. When inspected under a simulation study over a range of alternative distributions, we find that this test shows reasonable behaviour compared to other goodness-of-fit tests like the Poisson index of dispersion and smooth test applied to the Poisson model. These results illustrate that epgf-based methods for anlyzing count data are promising.     

A Necessary Power Divergence Type Family Tests of Multivariate Normality

In a recent article, Cardoso de Oliveira and Ferreira have proposed a multivariate extension of the univariate chi-squared normality test, using a known result for the distribution of quadratic forms in normal variables. In this article, we propose a family of power divergence type test statistics for testing the hypothesis of multinormality. The proposed family of test statistics includes as a particular case the test proposed by Cardoso de Oliveira and Ferreira. We assess the performance of the new family of test statistics by using Monte Carlo simulation. In this context, the type I error rates and the power of the tests are studied, for important family members. Moreover, the performance of significant members of the proposed test statistics are compared with the respective performance of a multivariate normality test, proposed recently by Batsidis and Zografos. Finally, two well-known data sets are used to illustrate the method developed in this article as well as the specialized test of multivariate normality proposed by Batsidis and Zografos.     

Urban public transport choice behavior analysis and service improvement policy-making: a case study from the metropolitan city,Chengdu, China

As the metropolitan city in Western China, Chengdu has been suffered from serious traffic congestion. The strategy of urban public transport priority was put into agenda to relieve traffic congestion. But the public transport sharing rate is only 27% in Chengdu which is much lower than the developed country. Consequently, it is of great importance to study the measures to improve the service, and provide technical support to the policy-makers. This paper selected the traffic corridor between Southwest Jiaotong University district and downtown as the experiment subject. The orthogonal design was used to generate stated preference questionnaires in order to achieve the reliable parameter estimates. Some variables were used to define the utility of the three alternatives and construct the Logit model. Then, the relationships between the cost, time variable and the choice probability of the public transport were analyzed. According to the results, we found that the orthogonal design does improve the goodness-of-fit. The workability of Multinomial Logit Model was better than Nest Logit model. We also put forward some effective measures to improve the service level of public transit, including reducing the access time to Metro, limiting parking supply to control the car use.     

Accent on Teaching Materials: Notices and Reviews of Important Teaching Materials

This article examines the probabilities of outcomes from rolling dice with the dimension 1 × 1 × r for various values of r. Experiments were conducted by school students and university students. The results of the experiments are given and the probabilities examined using a generalized linear model. Notes are also made about the value of the experiment in teaching the groups of students.     

Testing Goodness of Fit of Parametric AFT and PH Models with Residuals

In this article, we consider the problems of testing the goodness of fit of the parametric accelerated failure time model and the Cox proportional hazards model. We consider omnibus test statistics based on residuals. The statistical distributions of Kolmogorov, Cramer-von Mises–Smirnov, and Anderson–Darling statistics are all investigated by means of Monte Carlo simulations. Type-I, Type-II, and independent random censoring situations are all considered in this study. A Monte Carlo power study has also been carried out for these tests to distinguish between various baseline models, which reveals that the Anderson–Darling test performs better than the others.     

GATS模式4服务贸易的统计范围与数据来源研究

内容提要：本文以模式4和其他统计体系的关系为主线,通过对《国际服务贸易统计手册》认定的范围及类别分析,将模式4的统计范围进行了扩展;进一步,我们建立了模式4统计在人数和服务价值两方面的数据信息需求,并说明这些数据主要来自其他统计体系;对于人数统计,提出了一个初步测算模式4自然人数的数据来源列表,研究其对应与不对应性;对于服务价值统计,研究了模式4统计与BOP和SNA（1993）的对应性,对有关货币指标进行改进来评估模式4。     

Intermediate efficiency by shifting alternatives and evaluation of power

We study a modification of the notion of asymptotic intermediate efficiency of statistical tests by defining it in terms of shifting alternatives. We prove a theorem providing conditions for its existence and show that this modification is closely related to the original Kallenberg's asymptotic intermediate efficiency in a quite general setting. Next, we find estimates for differences between powers of the Neyman–Pearson test under original alternatives and that of a given test under shifted alternatives. We also present some simulation results. They attest to consistency of theoretical results with observed empirical powers for quite small sample sizes.     

论新世纪统计信息咨询业的发展

新世纪是一个知识的时代,是一个信息的时代。本文针对新世纪的新特点,分析了统计信息咨询业发展的趋势、存在的问题与不足,并在此基础上提出了促进统计信息咨询业发展的措施与对策。