Compromised birth outcomes and infant mortality among racial and ethnic groups

Demography - Research based on hospital records demonstrates that many births classified as normal according to conventional demographic measurement are intrauterine growth-retarded (IUGR) when...     

Racial differences in infant mortality by cause of death: The impact of birth weight and maternal age

This research examines racial disparities in infant mortality, overall and separately according to cause of death. Using linked birth and death records for the 1975 cohort of live births in Florida, racial differences are initially described and then explained statistically as a product of the distribution of births by birth weight and maternal age. The impact of birth weight is more pronounced than is the effect of maternal age. The analysis suggests the potential utility of examining infant mortality separately by cause of death. Based on the findings, we argue for systematic research focused on factors affecting birth weight.     

An alternative approach to immigration policy: Rationing by skill

Current U.S. immigration policy places a heavy emphasis on kinship ties with a U.S. citizen or resident alien in rationing immigration visas. An alternative policy is to focus on the skills of visa applicants. Immigrants with higher levels of schooling and with skills that are more readily transferable to the U.S. labor market are more productive, as measured by their earnings. A larger proportion of skilled workers in a cohort of immigrants tends to narrow the differences in earnings among skill groups in the native-born population. This reduces income inequality and reduces the use of income transfers by the low-skilled native-born population. More highly-skilled immigrants also make less use of income-contingent transfers. A point-system would be necessary to combine the multidimensional aspects of skill. The adoption of skill-based rationing with a point system in Canada led to an increase in the skill level of the immigrants.     

Reconsidering mortality compression and deceleration: an alternative model of mortality rates

In this research we develop a model of mortality rates that parameterizes mortality deceleration and compression, permits hypothesis tests for change in these parameters over time, and allows for formal gender comparisons. Our model fits mortality data well across all adult ages 20-105 for 1968-1992 U.S. white data, and the results offer some confirmation of findings of mortality research using conventional methods. We find that the age at which mortality deceleration begins is increasing over time, that decompression of mortality is occurring, and that these trends vary substantially across genders, although male and female mortality patterns appear to be converging to some extent.     

An alternative formulation of the birth function in a two-sex model

The inconsistency in Lotka's stable population model (two different intrinsic growth rates for the two sexes) arises from the fact that he considers two equations (for male and female births), and not because his equation for one sex does not involve the other. Many authors in the past have erroneously put emphasis on the latter point and modified Lotka's equations for male and female births. Since sex ratio at birth is constant, two independent equations for male and female births cannot exist. The correct approach is to attempt to form an equation for all births. The author followed this approach in his earlier works on the problem, but his birth functions were formulated from axiomatic considerations. The present paper provides a new birth function which has an intuitively appealing physical interpretation, and for which the interaction between the sexes is empirically determined from the data.     

Breast feeding, fertility and infant mortality: An analysis of some early German data

Abstract Concern about high infant mortality and its suspected connection with the lack of breast-feeding stimulated the collection of statistics about the frequency of breast-feeding in several German states during the late roth and early 20th centuries. Contrary to the assumption that universal and extended breast-feeding is customary among rural agricultural populations, large regional variations existed both in the proportion of children who were breast-fed and in the average duration of the period for which they were breast-fed. An analysis of these data in connection with statistics of infant mortality and marital fertility confirms the association between high infant mortality and the absence of breast-feeding. An hypothesis linking breast-feeding and fertility, however, is not confirmed. Marital fertility appears to be much more closely associated with infant mortality than with breast-feeding.     

Demographic transitions: analyzing the effects of mortality on fertility

The effect of mortality reductions on fertility is one of the main mechanisms stressed by the recent growth literature in order to explain demographic transitions. We analyze the empirical relevance of this mechanism based on the experience of developed and developing countries since 1960. We distinguish between the effects on gross and net fertility, take into account the dynamic nature of the relationship, and control for alternative explanatory factors and for endogeneity. Our results show that mortality plays a large role in fertility reductions, that the change in fertility behavior comes with a lag of about 10 years and that both net and gross fertility are affected. We find comparatively little support for explanations of the demographic transition based on changes in GDP per capita.     

Breast feeding,fertility and infant mortality: An analysis of some early German data

Concern about high infant mortality and its suspected connection with the lack of breast-feeding stimulated the collection of statistics about the frequency of breast-feeding in several German states during the late roth and early 20th centuries. Contrary to the assumption that universal and extended breast-feeding is customary among rural agricultural populations, large regional variations existed both in the proportion of children who were breast-fed and in the average duration of the period for which they were breast-fed. An analysis of these data in connection with statistics of infant mortality and marital fertility confirms the association between high infant mortality and the absence of breast-feeding. An hypothesis linking breast-feeding and fertility, however, is not confirmed. Marital fertility appears to be much more closely associated with infant mortality than with breast-feeding.     

Infant mortality and birth intervals

Summary In the course of a demographic inquiry which also offered medical advice to the respondent women, information was obtained on the reproductive life and child mortality of women in three regions of Upper Volta. Foetal mortality rates are inversely correlated with fertility rates, whereas the opposite holds true of the mortality of children aged up to four years. An explanation of this phenomenon is attempted, showing how large variations in mortality rates continue to exist in developing countries. The second section of the paper deals with spontaneous abortions which happen much more frequently than is believed in Black Africa and with the effect of pathological sterility on birth intervals. Account is taken of the taboo on sexual relations after children have been born, a taboo which continues to be kept in the region studied and which as an important effect on inter-birth intervals.     

Estimates of mortality from infant mortality rates

Estimates of mortality rates and expectation of life at birth, using infant mortality rates, are examined on the basis of 150 life tables for both sexes. Least squares linear estimates are given as well as estimates of their variances. Model life table calculations, as proposed by the U.N. Population Branch, are then compared with these unbiased minimum variance estimates and shown to overestimate the expectation of life by more than two years on the average, and to be at most 68% efficient. Though better estimates are provided in this paper, their variance is still so large as to cast doubt on the practical usefulness of anv estimates based exclusively on infant mortality rates.     

Estimating infant and childhood mortality under conditions of changing mortality

Summary It is well known that estimates of infant mortality obtained using Brass's technique are very accurate. Biases are introduced, however, when one or more of the assumptions on which it relies are violated. Departures from the assumption of constant fertility may be handled by using a variant of the technique which depends on information on the age distribution of surviving children, rather than on indexes of the fertility function. Violations of the assumption of constant mortality - an increasingly common situation in most developing societies - produce upward biases in the estimates. The amount of bias is a function of the speed of mortality decline, the characteristics of the fertility pattern and, finally, of the age of the mother. This paper presents a simple technique which corrects these biases, and in addition, generates estimates of the parameters of the mortality trend. It differs from others in that it uses a cohort definition of mortality decline and relies on knowledge of the age structure of surviving children rather than on indexes of the fertility pattern.     

High foetal mortality and birth intervals

Abstract Studies of birth intervals have generally separated the process into: (1) the period of infertility following a pregnancy termination; (2) the length ofthe interval from the end of the infertile period to the next conception (which reflects the probability of conception), and (3) the average duration of pregnancy for both live births and foetal deaths.(1) Empirically derived intervals between successive live births average from 19 to 30 lunar months(2) (Table 1), depending upon the population studied and the birth order.(3) Estimates of conception rates using birth intervals data require some estimate of the extent to which foetal wastage increases the birth interval.     

From birth expectations to birth forecasts: a partial-adjustment approach

"As women's expectations about their own future fertility tend to deviate systematically from realizations, these expectations cannot be used directly for forecasting purposes. This paper discusses a partial-adjustment approach for deriving forecasts from the expectations. The sensitivity of the results to various assumptions is examined. Empirical results obtained for the Netherlands seem promising."     

Relationship of infant mortality and community development

A researcher applied indirect estimation techniques to data from 352 rural villages from the 1978 Republic of the Philippines Fertility Survey to determine if community factors affect mortality of children 5 years old. Children with the highest mortality risks included those of the poor and least educated parents. For example, infant and child mortality stood at 203 among mothers with no education compared to 42 among those with at least a college education. In addition, infant and child mortality among husbands who were farmers was 111 whereas it was 28 among husbands who worked in professional and clerical jobs. Low cost health services and midwives were the health factors that had the greatest effect ion the probability of survival for children 5 years old, especially among the poor and least educated. For example, the probability of dying fell from 123-80 among the poor and 152-79 among the least educated if a dispensary was accessible and from 131-88 among the poor and 154-96 among the least educated if a midwife was accessible. Furthermore, adequate nutrition, better housing conditions, safe water, and sanitation also played a key role in reducing the probability of death. In terms of community development, only accessibility to a newspaper outlet the families were. On the other hand, the presence of electricity was significant only when education of the mother, occupation of the father, and region of residence were used as control variables. Thus the government should expand health care services to the rural population. Further, it should integrate health components in social and economic development programs     

Ambient temperature,birth rate,and birth outcomes: evidence from South Korea

Population and Environment - The effects from rising temperatures, a symptom of climate change, have become a significant concern. This study finds that one additional day with a maximum...     

Beyond infant mortality: gender and stillbirth in reproductive mortality before the twentieth century

Though it has been the largest component of reproductive mortality since its statutory registration in 1928, stillbirth has received little attention from historical demographers, who have relied on the more orthodox indicator of early human survival changes - "infant mortality". The exclusion of stillbirth hampers demographic analysis, underestimates progress in newborn vitality, and over-privileges post-natal causes in theoretical explanation. A case is made for estimating stillbirth before 1928 as a ratio of early neonatal death, and for employing perinatal mortality as an historical indicator of female health status. The long-run trend of reproductive mortality (encompassing mature foetal and live born infant death during the first eleven months) reveals a substantial decline in perinatal causes in the first industrial century (1750-1850), implying a major concurrent improvement in the nutritional status of child bearers. Reproductive mortality is a more complete indicator of death in infancy. It offers demographers a means of fracturing the fertility versus mortality dualism and a potential purchase on gender as a demographic variable, while re-opening the case on mortality in the demographic dynamic of the world we have lost.     

Demographic change and response: Social context and the practice of birth control in six countries

This paper expands on Kingsley Davis’s demographic thesis of change and response. Specifically, we consider the social context that accounts for the primacy of particular birth control methods that bring about fertility change during specific time periods. We examine the relevance of state policy (including national family planning programs), the international population establishment, the medical profession, organized religion, and women’s groups using case studies from Japan, Russia, Puerto Rico, China, India, and Cameroon. Some of these countries are undergoing the second demographic transition, others the first. Despite variations in context, heavy reliance on sterilization and/or, abortion as a means of birth control is a major response in most of these countries. The key roles of the medical profession and state policy are discussed, along with the general lack of influence of religion and of women’s groups in these countries.     

The concept and measurement of child dependency: An approach to family formation analysis

Abstract Two distinctions appear crucial in the study of human fertility: (1) aggregate versus individuallevel analysis; and (2) true explanations versus 'demographic explanations', using Stinchcombe's terminology. Social demographers analysing fertility have been accustomed to using fertility measurements derived from aggregative population analyses, and have largely terminated their analytic efforts at the level of a 'demographic explanation'. The failure to arrive at a social analysis of the process of fertility decision-making may in part to be due to this measurement heritage, which may be inappropriate for individual-level analyses. As a first step in the direction of creating measurement suitable for such analyses, fertility decision-making is labelled as family formation decision-making, and this is linked to the concept of child dependency. Measures of child-years-of-dependency (CYD) are proposed for use in family formation analysis. These integrate current quantity and tempo measures, and have greater potential for use at the level ofthe family. They require no additional data beyond fertility histories, are flexible in terms of non-modal family situations (e.g. divorce, infant or child mortality) and may be indicators of criteria used by couples in planning their fertility. Refinements of the basic CYD measures are explored. These include analyses of average versus marginal costs of child-rearing, age gradients of costs and social class differentials in costs. All of these are intended to make CYD measures more useful in individual cost-benefit analyses of child-bearing and child-rearing.