An application of canonical expansions to media exposure distributions

A model for media exposure probabilities is developed which has the joint probability of exposure proportional to the product of the marginal probabilities. The model is a generalization of Goodhardt & Ehrenberg's ‘duplication of viewing law’, with the duplication constant computed from a truncated canonical expansion of the joint exposure probability. The proposed model is compared on the basis of estimation accuracy and computation speed with an accurate and quick ‘approximate’ log-linear model (as noted previously)and the popular Metheringham beta-binomial model. Our model is shown to be more accurate than the approximate log-linear model and four times faster. In addition, it is much more accurate than Metheringham's model.     

Distribution of the product of a pair of independent two-sided power variates

ABSTRACT

The distributions of algebraic functions of random variables are important in theory of probability and statistics and other areas such as engineering, reliability, and actuarial applications, and many results based on various distributions are available in the literature. The two-sided power distribution is defined on a bounded range, and it is a generalization of the uniform, triangular, and power-function probability distributions. This paper gives the exact distribution of the product of two independent two-sided power-distributed random variables in a computable representation. The percentiles of the product are then computed, and a real data application is given.     

News about Members

In this article a natural extension of the beta-binomial distribution is developed. Forced binary choice situations are modeled such that each individual has a probability p of knowing the correct answer. (This probability is distributed f(p) across the population.) Hence each individual will guess at the correct answer with probability 1 – p. The observable random variable R, the total number of correct answers (both by knowing and guessing) out of k trials has a rather complicated distribution. However, when f(p) is distributed beta with parameters m and n, the distribution P(r; k, m, n) can be expressed in terms of the well-known Gaussian hypergeometric function. This distribution has implications for true-false tests, taste tests, and virtually every other forced binary choice situation.     

The validation of a beta-binomial model for overdispersed binomial data

The beta-binomial model has been widely used as an analytically tractable alternative that captures the overdispersion of an intra-correlated, binomial random variable, X. However, the model validation for X has been rarely investigated. As a beta-binomial mass function takes on a few different shapes, the model validation is examined for each of the classified shapes in this article. Further, the mean square error (MSE) is illustrated for each shape by the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) based on a beta-binomial model approach and the method of moments estimator (MME) in order to gauge when and how much the MLE is biased.     

Non-homogeneous Pólya-Aeppli process

Abstract

In this paper we suppose that the intensity parameter of the Pólya-Aeppli process is a function of time t and call the resulting process a non-homogeneous Pólya-Aeppli process (NHPAP). The NHPAP can be represented as a compound non-homogeneous Poisson process with geometric compounding distribution as well as a pure birth process. For this process we give two definitions and show their equivalence. Also, we derive some interesting properties of NHPAP and use simulation the illustrate the process for particular intensity functions. In addition, we introduce the standard risk model based on NHPAP, analyze the ruin probability for this model and include an example of the process under exponentially distributed claims.     

Time series models associated with Mittag-Leffler type distributions and its properties

ABSTRACT

We have provided a fractional generalization of the Poisson renewal processes by replacing the first time derivative in the relaxation equation of the survival probability by a fractional derivative of order α(0 < α ? 1). A generalized Laplacian model associated with the Mittag-Leffler distribution is examined. We also discuss some properties of this new model and its relevance to time series. Distribution of gliding sums, regression behaviors, and sample path properties are studied. Finally we introduce the q-Mittag-Leffler process associated with the q-Mittag-Leffler distribution.     

Reliability statistical analysis about products of Birnbaum–Saunders fatigue life distribution for life test and progressive stress accelerated life test

Birnbaum–Saunders fatigue life distribution is an important failure model in the probability physical methods. It is more suitable for describing the life rules of fatigue failure products than common life distributions such as Weibull distribution and lognormal distribution. Besides, it is mainly applied to analytical research about fatigue failure and degradation failure of electronic product performance. The characteristic properties such as numerical characteristics and image features of density function and failure rate function are studied for generalized BS fatigue life distribution GBS(α, β, m) in this paper. Then the point estimates and approximate interval estimates of parameters are proposed for generalized BS fatigue life distribution GBS(α, β, m), and the precision of estimates are investigated by Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, when the scale parameter satisfies inverse power law model, the failure distribution model is given for the products of two-parameter BS fatigue life distribution BS(α, β) under progressive stress accelerated life test according to the time conversion idea of famous Nelson assumption, and then the points estimates of parameters are given.     

The distribution of the product of two independent generalized trapezoidal random variables

ABSTRACT

In this article, we derive the probability density function (pdf) of the product of two independent generalized trapezoidal random variables having different supports, in closed form, by considering all possible cases. We also show that the results for the product of two triangular and uniform random variables follow as special cases of our main result. As an illustration, we obtain pdf of product for a suitably constrained set of parameters and plot some graphs using MATLAB, which express variation in pdf with change in different parameters of the generalized trapezoidal distribution.     

Generalized modified slash distribution with applications

Abstract

In this article a generalization of the modified slash distribution is introduced. This model is based on the quotient of two independent random variables, whose distributions are a normal and a one-parameter gamma, respectively. The resulting distribution is a new model whose kurtosis is greater than other slash distributions. The probability density function, its properties, moments, and kurtosis coefficient are obtained. Inference based on moment and maximum likelihood methods is carried out. The multivariate version is also introduced. Two real data sets are considered in which it is shown that the new model fits better to symmetric data with heavy tails than other slash extensions previously introduced in literature.     

Relative Potency Estimation in Parallel-Line Assays – Method Comparison and Some Extensions

Relative potency estimations in both multiple parallel-line and slope-ratio assays involve construction of simultaneous confidence intervals for ratios of linear combinations of general linear model parameters. The key problem here is that of determining multiplicity adjusted percentage points of a multivariate t-distribution, the correlation matrix R of which depends on the unknown relative potency parameters. Several methods have been proposed in the literature on how to deal with R . In this article, we introduce a method based on an estimate of R (also called the plug-in approach) and compare it with various methods including conservative procedures based on probability inequalities. Attention is restricted to parallel-line assays though the theory is applicable for any ratios of coefficients in the general linear model. Extension of the plug-in method to linear mixed effect models is also discussed. The methods will be compared with respect to their simultaneous coverage probabilities via Monte Carlo simulations. We also evaluate the methods in terms of confidence interval width through application to data on multiple parallel-line assay.     

The Kumaraswamy skew-t distribution and its related properties

Skew normal distribution is an alternative distribution to the normal distribution to accommodate asymmetry. Since then extensive studies have been done on applying Azzalini’s skewness mechanism to other well-known distributions, such as skew-t distribution, which is more flexible and can better accommodate long tailed data than the skew normal one. The Kumaraswamy generalized distribution (Kw ? F) is another new class of distribution which is capable of fitting skewed data that can not be fitted well by existing distributions. Such a distribution has been widely studied and various versions of generalization of this distribution family have been introduced. In this article, we introduce a new generalization of the skew-t distribution based on the Kumaraswamy generalized distribution. The new class of distribution, which we call the Kumaraswamy skew-t (KwST) has the ability of fitting skewed, long, and heavy-tailed data and is more flexible than the skew-t distribution as it contains the skew-t distribution as a special case. Related properties of this distribution family such as mathematical properties, moments, and order statistics are discussed. The proposed distribution is applied to a real dataset to illustrate the estimation procedure.     

On the arbitrage price of European call options

We show that in a discrete price and discrete time model for option pricing, specifically that given by the Cox–Ross–Rubinstein model, the arbitrage price of a European call option can depend on parameters other than volatility (the standard deviation of the log asset price). We provide two theorems to illustrate this phenomenon. Our first theorem considers two securities with the same volatility so that at a specified time n₀, with probability near 1, the two securities are equal. If their call options differ, both the discounted securities will be martingales. Our second theorem considers two securities with the same volatility so that at times n = 0, ..., N ? 1 the securities are equal with probability near 1. If their call options differ, one of the discounted securities will be a martingale and the other discounted security will be a supermartingale.     

A Conway Maxwell Poisson type generalization of the negative hypergeometric distribution

Abstract

Negative hypergeometric distribution arises as a waiting time distribution when we sample without replacement from a finite population. It has applications in many areas such as inspection sampling and estimation of wildlife populations. However, as is well known, the negative hypergeometric distribution is over-dispersed in the sense that its variance is greater than the mean. To make it more flexible and versatile, we propose a modified version of negative hypergeometric distribution called COM-Negative Hypergeometric distribution (COM-NH) by introducing a shape parameter as in the COM-Poisson and COMP-Binomial distributions. It is shown that under some limiting conditions, COM-NH approaches to a distribution that we call the COM-Negative binomial (COMP-NB), which in turn, approaches to the COM Poisson distribution. For the proposed model, we investigate the dispersion characteristics and shape of the probability mass function for different combinations of parameters. We also develop statistical inference for this model including parameter estimation and hypothesis tests. In particular, we investigate some properties such as bias, MSE, and coverage probabilities of the maximum likelihood estimators for its parameters by Monte Carlo simulation and likelihood ratio test to assess shape parameter of the underlying model. We present illustrative data to provide discussion.     

The effect of parameter estimation on the performance of one-sided Shewhart control charts for zero-inflated processes

ABSTRACT

Zero-inflated probability models are used to model count data that have an excessive number of zeros. Shewhart-type control charts have been proposed for the monitoring of zero-inflated processes. Usually their performance is evaluated under the assumption of known process parameters. However, in practice, their values are rarely known and they have to be estimated from an in-control historical Phase I sample. In the present paper, we investigate the performance of Shewhart-type control charts for zero-inflated processes with estimated parameters and propose practical guidelines for the statistical design of the examined charts, when the size of the preliminary sample is predetermined.     

Approximating M/G/1 Waiting Time Tail Probabilities

Abstract

We propose a new approximation formula for the waiting time tail probability of the M/G/1 queue with FIFO discipline and unlimited waiting space. The aim is to address the difficulty of obtaining good estimates when the tail probability has non-exponential asymptotics. We show that the waiting time tail probability can be expressed in terms of the waiting time tail probability of a notional M/G/1 queue with truncated service time distribution plus the tail probability of an extreme order statistic. The Cramér–Lundberg approximation is applied to approximate the tail probability of the notional queue. In essence, our technique extends the applicability of the Cramér–Lundberg approximation to cases where the standard Lundberg condition does not hold. We propose a simple moment-based technique for estimating the parameters of the approximation; numerical results demonstrate that our approximation can yield very good estimates over the whole range of the argument.     

A new Lindley distribution with location parameter

Abstract

The Lindley distribution has been used recently for modeling lifetime data and studying some stress-strength problems. In this paper, a new three-parameter Lindley distribution is introduced. The added location parameter offers more flexibility in fitting some real data against other common distributions. Several statistical and reliability properties are discussed. A simulation study has been carried to examine the MSE, bias, and coverage probability for the parameters. A real data set is used to illustrate the flexibility of the proposed distribution.     

The Kumaraswamy normal linear regression model with applications

ABSTRACT

For any continuous baseline G distribution, Cordeiro and Castro pioneered the Kumaraswamy-G family of distributions with two extra positive parameters, which generalizes both Lehmann types I and II classes. We study some mathematical properties of the Kumaraswamy-normal (KwN) distribution including ordinary and incomplete moments, mean deviations, quantile and generating functions, probability weighted moments, and two entropy measures. We propose a new linear regression model based on the KwN distribution, which extends the normal linear regression model. We obtain the maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters and provide some diagnostic measures such as global influence, local influence, and residuals. We illustrate the potentiality of the introduced models by means of two applications to real datasets.     

Bayesian local bandwidth selector in multivariate associated kernel estimator for joint probability mass functions

ABSTRACT

This work treats non-parametric estimation of multivariate probability mass functions, using multivariate discrete associated kernels. We propose a Bayesian local approach to select the matrix of bandwidths considering the multivariate Dirac Discrete Uniform and the product of binomial kernels, and treating the bandwidths as a diagonal matrix of parameters with some prior distribution. The performances of this approach and the cross-validation method are compared using simulations and real count data sets. The obtained results show that the Bayes local method performs better than cross-validation in terms of integrated squared error.     

p-Values,Bayes Factors,and Sufficiency

ABSTRACT

Various approaches can be used to construct a model from a null distribution and a test statistic. I prove that one such approach, originating with D. R. Cox, has the property that the p-value is never greater than the Generalized Likelihood Ratio (GLR). When combined with the general result that the GLR is never greater than any Bayes factor, we conclude that, under Cox’s model, the p-value is never greater than any Bayes factor. I also provide a generalization, illustrations for the canonical Normal model, and an alternative approach based on sufficiency. This result is relevant for the ongoing discussion about the evidential value of small p-values, and the movement among statisticians to “redefine statistical significance.”     

The Poisson-conjugate Lindley mixture distribution

ABSTRACT

A new discrete distribution that depends on two parameters is introduced in this article. From this new distribution the geometric distribution is obtained as a special case. After analyzing some of its properties such as moments and unimodality, recurrences for the probability mass function and differential equations for its probability generating function are derived. In addition to this, parameters are estimated by maximum likelihood estimation numerically maximizing the log-likelihood function. Expected frequencies are calculated for different sets of data to prove the versatility of this discrete model.