A MONTE CARLO COMPARISON OF VARIOUS ASYMPTOTIC APPROXIMATIONS TO THE DISTRIBUTION OF INSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES ESTIMATORS

ABSTRACT

We examine empirical relevance of three alternative asymptotic approximations to the distribution of instrumental variables estimators by Monte Carlo experiments. We find that conventional asymptotics provides a reasonable approximation to the actual distribution of instrumental variables estimators when the sample size is reasonably large. For most sample sizes, we find Bekker[11] Bekker, P. A. 1994. Alternative Approximations to the Distributions of Instrumental Variable Estimators. Econometrica, 62: 657–681. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar] asymptotics provides reasonably good approximation even when the first stage R ² is very small. We conclude that reporting Bekker[11] Bekker, P. A. 1994. Alternative Approximations to the Distributions of Instrumental Variable Estimators. Econometrica, 62: 657–681. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar] confidence interval would suffice for most microeconometric (cross-sectional) applications, and the comparative advantage of Staiger and Stock[5] Staiger, D. and Stock, J. H. 1997. Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments. Econometrica, 65: 556–586. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar] asymptotic approximation is in applications with sample sizes typical in macroeconometric (time series) applications.     

Double filter instrumental variable estimation of panel data models with weakly exogenous variables

In this article, we propose instrumental variables (IV) and generalized method of moments (GMM) estimators for panel data models with weakly exogenous variables. The model is allowed to include heterogeneous time trends besides the standard fixed effects (FE). The proposed IV and GMM estimators are obtained by applying a forward filter to the model and a backward filter to the instruments in order to remove FE, thereby called the double filter IV and GMM estimators. We derive the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators under fixed T and large N, and large T and large N asymptotics where N and T denote the dimensions of cross section and time series, respectively. It is shown that the proposed IV estimator has the same asymptotic distribution as the bias corrected FE estimator when both N and T are large. Monte Carlo simulation results reveal that the proposed estimator performs well in finite samples and outperforms the conventional IV/GMM estimators using instruments in levels in many cases.     

Robust adaptive estimators for binary regression models

This article introduces adaptive weighted maximum likelihood estimators for binary regression models. The asymptotic distribution under the model is established, and asymptotic confidence intervals are derived. Finite-sample properties are studied by simulation. For clean datasets, the proposed adaptive estimators are more efficient than the non-adaptive ones even for moderate sample sizes, and for outlier-contaminated datasets they show a comparable robustness. As for the asymptotic confidence intervals, the actual coverage levels under the model are very close to the nominal levels (even for moderate sample sizes), and they are reasonably stable under contamination.     

Instrument endogeneity and identification-robust tests: Some analytical results

When some explanatory variables in a regression are correlated with the disturbance term, instrumental variable methods are typically employed to make reliable inferences. Furthermore, to avoid difficulties associated with weak instruments, identification-robust methods are often proposed. However, it is hard to assess whether an instrumental variable is valid in practice because instrument validity is based on the questionable assumption that some of them are exogenous. In this paper, we focus on structural models and analyze the effects of instrument endogeneity on two identification-robust procedures, the Anderson–Rubin (1949, AR) and the Kleibergen (2002, K) tests, with or without weak instruments. Two main setups are considered: (1) the level of “instrument” endogeneity is fixed (does not depend on the sample size) and (2) the instruments are locally exogenous, i.e. the parameter which controls instrument endogeneity approaches zero as the sample size increases. In the first setup, we show that both test procedures are in general consistent against the presence of invalid instruments (hence asymptotically invalid for the hypothesis of interest), whether the instruments are “strong” or “weak”. We also describe cases where test consistency may not hold, but the asymptotic distribution is modified in a way that would lead to size distortions in large samples. These include, in particular, cases where the 2SLS estimator remains consistent, but the AR and K tests are asymptotically invalid. In the second setup, we find (non-degenerate) asymptotic non-central chi-square distributions in all cases, and describe cases where the non-centrality parameter is zero and the asymptotic distribution remains the same as in the case of valid instruments (despite the presence of invalid instruments). Overall, our results underscore the importance of checking for the presence of possibly invalid instruments when applying “identification-robust” tests.     

A new sequential approximation method

A sequential method for estimating the expected value of a random variable is proposed. Using a parametric model, the updating formula is based on the maximum likelihood estimators of the roots of the expected value function. Under certain conditions, it is demonstrated that the estimators of the roots are consistent, when a two-parameter logit model version of the procedure is used for binary data. In addition, the estimators of the logit parameters have an asymptotic normal distribution. A simulation study is performed to evaluate the effectiveness of the new method for small to medium sample sizes. Compared to other sequential approximation methods, the proposed method performed well, especially when estimating several roots simultaneously.     

Testing parameter significance in instrumental variables probit estimators: some simulation

Binary choice models that contain endogenous regressors can now be estimated routinely using modern software. Each of the two packages, Stata 11 [Stata Statistical Software: Release 11, StataCorp LP, College Station, TX, 2009] and Limdep 9 [Econometric Software Inc., Plainview, NY, 2008], contains two estimators that can be used to estimate such a model. This paper compares the performance of maximum likelihood, Newey's Amemiya's generalized least-squares (AGLS) estimator, an instrumental variables plug-in estimator and others in samples of sizes 200 and 1000 using simulation. Specifically, this paper focuses on tests of parameter significance under various degrees of instrument strength and severity of endogeneity. Although the maximum-likelihood estimator performs well in large samples, there is some evidence that the more computationally robust AGLS estimator may perform better in smaller samples when instruments are weak. It also appears that instruments in endogenous probit estimation need to be even stronger than when used in linear instrumental variables (IV) estimation.     

THE EFFECTS OF CORRELATION AMONG OBSERVATIONS ON THE ACCURACY OF APPROXIMATING THE DISTRIBUTION OF SAMPLE MEAN BY ITS ASYMPTOTIC DISTRIBUTION1

In this paper, we investigate the effects of correlation among observations on the accuracy of approximating the distribution of sample mean by its asymptotic distribution. The accuracy is investigated by the Berry-Esseen bound (BEB), which gives an upper bound on the error of approximation of the distribution function of the sample mean from its asymptotic distribution for independent observations. For a given sample size (n₀) the BEB is obtained when the observations are independent. Let this be BEB. We then find the sample size (n_*) required to have BEB below BEB₀, when the observations are dependent. Comparison of n_* with n₀ reveals the effects of correlation among observations on the accuracy of the asymptotic distribution as an approximation. It is shown that the effects of correlation among observations are not appreciable if the correlation is moderate to small but it can be severe for extreme correlations.     

L p –Estimators as Estimates of a Parameter of Location for a Sharp–pointed Symmetric Density

We study the asymptotics of L _p estimators, p > 0, over a sample having a symmetric density with a sharp–point at the centre of symmetry of the distribution. The rates of convergence of the L _p estimators in this situation depend on p and on the shape of the density. To obtain some of the limit distributions, we present new results in the asymptotics of M–estimators. We extend the delta method to the case when the Euclidean norm of the conveniently normalized M–estimators converge to a power of the Euclidean norm of a (possibly Gaussian) stable distribution.     

A small sample confidence interval for autoregressive parameters

This paper is concerned with interval estimation of an autoregressive parameter when the parameter space allows for magnitudes outside the unit interval. In this case, intervals based on the least-squares estimator tend to require a high level of numerical computation and can be unreliable for small sample sizes. Intervals based on the asymptotic distribution of instrumental variable estimators provide an alternative. If the instrument is taken to be the sign function, the interval is centered at the Cauchy estimator and a large sample interval can be created by estimating the standard error of this estimator. The interval proposed in this paper avoids estimating this standard error and results in a small sample improvement in coverage probability. In fact, small sample coverage is exact when the innovations come from a normal distribution.     

Estimation of Pr( x<y ) in the exponential case with common location parameter

This paper considers the problem of estimating the probability P = Pr(X < Y) when X and Y are independent exponential random variables with unequal scale parameters and a common location parameter. Uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator of P is obtained. The asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator is obtained and then the asymptotic equivalence of the two estimators is established. Performance of the two estimators for moderate sample sizes is studied by Monte Carlo simulation. An approximate interval estimator is also obtained.     

Finite Sample Properties of the Two-Step Empirical Likelihood Estimator

We investigate the finite sample properties of two-step empirical likelihood (EL) estimators. These estimators are shown to have the same third-order bias properties as EL itself. The Monte Carlo study provides evidence that (i) higher order asymptotics fails to provide a good approximation in the sense that the bias of the two-step EL estimators can be substantial and sensitive to the number of moment restrictions and (ii) the two-step EL estimators may have heavy tails.     

The likelihood ratio under noncontiguous alternatives

The asymptotic distribution of the likelihood ratio under noncontiguous alternatives is shown to be normal for the exponential family of distributions. The rate of convergence of the parameters to the hypothetical value is specified where the asymptotic noncentral chi-square distribution no longer holds. It is only a little slower than $\O\left( {n^{ - \frac{1}{2}} } \right)$. The result provides compact power approximation formulae and is shown to work reasonably well even for moderate sample sizes.     

On lachin'S formulae for sample sizes of survival tests

Lachin [1981] and Lachin and Foulkes [1986] consider two groups of identically independently exponentially distributed random variables and four models of data sampling. The test problem they treat is to decide whether the two distributions are identical (null-hypothesis H⁰) or not (alternative hypothesis H¹). Basing the test on maximum-likelihood estimators and their asymptotic normal densities they obtain formulae for the group sizes necessary to yield asymptotic tests with guaranteed power under a prescribed level for specified hypotheses. It is intuitively reasonable to expect the sizes decrease the more the hypotheses differ. It the distance betwen H⁰ and H¹ is measured by the difference of the exponential parameters this assumption time or the deviation of the exponential parameter ratio from unity is the measure larger distances between the hypotheses do not necessarily lead to smaller sample sizes.     

Inference for the extreme value distribution under progressive Type-II censoring

The extreme value distribution has been extensively used to model natural phenomena such as rainfall and floods, and also in modeling lifetimes and material strengths. Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) for the parameters of the extreme value distribution leads to likelihood equations that have to be solved numerically, even when the complete sample is available. In this paper, we discuss point and interval estimation based on progressively Type-II censored samples. Through an approximation in the likelihood equations, we obtain explicit estimators which are approximations to the MLEs. Using these approximate estimators as starting values, we obtain the MLEs using an iterative method and examine numerically their bias and mean squared error. The approximate estimators compare quite favorably to the MLEs in terms of both bias and efficiency. Results of the simulation study, however, show that the probability coverages of the pivotal quantities (for location and scale parameters) based on asymptotic normality are unsatisfactory for both these estimators and particularly so when the effective sample size is small. We, therefore, suggest the use of unconditional simulated percentage points of these pivotal quantities for the construction of confidence intervals. The results are presented for a wide range of sample sizes and different progressive censoring schemes. We conclude with an illustrative example.     

Improvements in the small sample efficiency of the minimum S-divergence estimators under discrete models

This paper considers the problem of inliers and empty cells and the resulting issue of relative inefficiency in estimation under pure samples from a discrete population when the sample size is small. Many minimum divergence estimators in the S-divergence family, although possessing very strong outlier stability properties, often have very poor small sample efficiency in the presence of inliers and some are not even defined in the presence of a single empty cell; this limits the practical applicability of these estimators, in spite of their otherwise sound robustness properties and high asymptotic efficiency. Here, we study a penalized version of the S-divergences such that the resulting minimum divergence estimators are free from these issues, without altering their robustness properties and asymptotic efficiencies. We present a general proof for the asymptotic properties of these minimum penalized S-divergence estimators. This provides a significant addition to the literature, as the asymptotics of penalized divergences which are not finitely defined are currently unavailable in the literature. The small sample advantages of the minimum penalized S-divergence estimators are examined through an extensive simulation study and some empirical suggestions regarding the choice of the relevant underlying tuning parameters are also provided.     

Finite Sample Properties of the Two-Step Empirical Likelihood Estimator

ABSTRACT

We investigate the finite sample properties of two-step empirical likelihood (EL) estimators. These estimators are shown to have the same third-order bias properties as EL itself. The Monte Carlo study provides evidence that (i) higher order asymptotics fails to provide a good approximation in the sense that the bias of the two-step EL estimators can be substantial and sensitive to the number of moment restrictions and (ii) the two-step EL estimators may have heavy tails.     

An evaluation by simulation of alternative estimators for the marginal Fisher distribution

The Fisher distribution is a standard model for directional data (or spherical data). In some cases though, only the co-latitudes can be observed, resulting in a sample of observations from the corresponding marginal distribution. This paper reports on an extensive simulation to compare and evaluate the robustness of 11 test-statistics corresponding to various estimators of the parameters of this distribution. The estimators include Maximum Likelihood and Moment-type estimators, as well as sample means and variances based on approximations to the marginal Fisher distribution. Of the test-statistics considered, the Likelihood-Ratio statistic was the only one whose sampling distribution remained close to its asymptotic distribution for all parameter values and sample sizes considered. In general, the other statistics were close to their approximate distributions only when ksin2?0, was fairly large. The paper includes details on the computational methods for finding the Maximum Likelihood and Moment estimators, and concludes with some practical advice on the choice of estimation procedure.     

ESTIMATING THE ANGLE BETWEEN THE MEAN DIRECTIONS OF TWO SPHERICAL DISTRIBUTIONS

This paper considers the problem of calculating a confidence interval for the angular difference between the mean directions of two spherical random variables with rotationally symmetric unimodal distributions. For large sample sizes, it is shown that the asymptotic distribution of 1 – cos α, where α is the sample angular difference, is approximately exponential if the true difference is zero, and approximately normal for a ‘large’ true difference; a scaled beta approximation is determined for the general case. For small sample sizes, a bootstrap approach is recommended. The results are applied to two sets of palaeomagnetic data.     

Trimmed least squares estimator as best trimmed linear conditional estimator for linear regression model

A class of trimmed linear conditional estimators based on regression quantiles for the linear regression model is introduced. This class serves as a robust analogue of non-robust linear unbiased estimators. Asymptotic analysis then shows that the trimmed least squares estimator based on regression quantiles ( Koenker and Bassett ( 1978 ) ) is the best in this estimator class in terms of asymptotic covariance matrices. The class of trimmed linear conditional estimators contains the Mallows-type bounded influence trimmed means ( see De Jongh et al ( 1988 ) ) and trimmed instrumental variables estimators. A large sample methodology based on trimmed instrumental variables estimator for confidence ellipsoids and hypothesis testing is also provided.     

A Pointwise Estimator for the k-Fold Convolution of a Distribution Function

ABSTRACT

This article is concerned with some parametric and nonparametric estimators for the k-fold convolution of a distribution function. An alternative estimator is proposed and its unbiasedness, asymptotic unbiasedness, and consistency properties are investigated. The asymptotic normality of this estimator is established. Some applications of the estimator are given in renewal processes. Finally, the computational procedures are described and the relative performance of these estimators for small sample sizes is investigated by a simulation study.