Forecasting German mortality using panel data procedures

Reliable forecasts of life expectancies are of importance for the financial stability of social security systems and the life insurance industry. A discrete-time stochastic process and a continuous-time stochastic process are proposed to model the dynamics of German mortality rates from which life expectancies are calculated. More precisely, a panel data model is utilized, which distinguishes between a common time effect and a common age effect. The model is easy to fit, yields interpretable parameters, and allows for a simple analysis of the forecast error. The main applications of the model are the forecast of mortality rates—and the resulting life expectancies—and the pricing of mortality derivatives.

Differences in Life Expectancy and Disability Free Life Expectancy in Italy. A Challenge to Health Systems

Background Measures of health expectancy such as Disability Free Life Expectancy are used to evaluate and compare regional/national health statuses. These indicators are useful for understanding changes in the health status and defining health policies and decisions on the provision of services because provide useful information on possible areas needing interventions and burden of care to health systems. Methods Two databases have been used for the analysis: the Italian Health Interview Survey and the European Community Household Panel. The data were analyzed by gender and geographic area. DFLE was calculated by the Sullivan method. Results In 2005 in Italy women have a longer life expectancy than men: 84 and 78 years, respectively. But if we consider life without disability in Italy the male disadvantage reduces: men live 85% of their years without disability, women only 75%. Geographic differences do exist because Disability Free Life Expectancy is longer in Northern and in Central regions; shorter in the South. At a European level similar data can be found: on average women live longer but they have a longer time of life with disability. Conclusion In Italy women live longer but have a worse quality of health than men; in the South there is a worse quality of health. Similar findings can be identified at a European level. The Italian situation with the highest percentage of DFLE at 65 out of the total LE at 65 and one of the longest LE witnesses ageing is not necessarily associated to a worsening of health.     

The response of violent mortality to economic crisis in Russia

From 1992 to 1994 life expectancy for Russian males dropped from 62.0 to 57.6 years. Female life expectancy dropped from 73.8 years to 71.2 years. This drop in life expectancy coincided in time with the introduction of painful economic reforms in Russia, leading to a rapid decrease in real wages and pensions, nearly complete loss of personal savings, and a tremendous increase in the poverty rate. This article examines the temporary changes in mortality for violent causes of death during the crisis period with a special emphasis on age-specific and gender-specific differences in the response to economic crisis.     

Latin American convergence and divergence towards the mortality profiles of developed countries

It is uncertain whether Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) countries are approaching a single mortality regime. Over the last three decades, LAC has experienced major public health interventions and the highest number of homicides in the world. However, these interventions and homicide rates are not evenly shared across countries. This study documents trends in life expectancy and lifespan variability for 20 LAC countries, 2000–14. By extending a previous method, we decompose differences in lifespan variability between LAC and a developed world benchmark into cause-specific effects. For both sexes, dispersion of amenable diseases through the age span makes the largest contribution to the gap between LAC and the benchmark. Additionally, for males, the concentration of homicides, accidents, and suicides in mid-life further impedes mortality convergence. Great disparity exists in the region: while some countries are rapidly approaching the developed regime, others remain far behind and suffer a clear disadvantage in population health.     

A mortality model based on a mixture distribution function

A new mortality model based on a mixture distribution function is proposed. We mix a half-normal distribution with a generalization of the skew-normal distribution. As a result, we get a six-parameter distribution function that has a good fit with a wide variety of mortality patterns. This mixture model is fitted to several mortality data schedules and compared with the Siler (five-parameter) and Heligman–Pollard (eight-parameter) models. Our proposal serves as a convenient compromise between the Heligman–Pollard model (which ensures a good fit with data but is often overparameterized) and the Siler model (which is more compact but fails to capture ‘accident humps’).     

Long-term effects of childbearing on mortality: Evidence from pre-industrial Sweden

This paper presents an analysis of the impact of childbearing history on later-life mortality for ever-married men and women using historical micro-level data of high quality for southern Sweden. The analysis uses a Cox proportional hazards model, estimating the effects on old-age mortality of number of births and timing of first and last births. By studying the effects of previous childbearing on mortality by sex and social status, we also gain important insights into the mechanisms relating childbearing to mortality in old age. The results show that number of children ever born had a statistically significant negative impact on longevity after age 50 for females but not for males. Analysis by social group shows that only landless women experienced higher mortality from having more children, which seems to indicate that the main explanations are to be found in social or economic conditions specific to females, rather than in the strictly biological or physiological effects of childbearing.     

Data on survival of recent births as a source of child mortality estimates in the developing world: An assessment of census data

In many less developed countries, household surveys collect full and summary birth histories to provide estimates of child mortality. However, full birth histories are expensive to collect and cannot provide precise estimates for small areas, and summary birth histories only provide past child mortality trends. A simple method that provides estimates for the most recent past uses questions about the survival of recent births in censuses or large household surveys. This study examines such data collected by 45 censuses and shows that on average they tend to underestimate under-5 mortality in comparison with alternative estimates, albeit with wide variations. In addition, the high non-sampling uncertainty in this approach precludes its use in providing robust estimates of child mortality at the country level. Given these findings, we suggest that questions about the survival of recent births to collect data on child mortality not be included in census questionnaires.