DO TERRORIST ATTACKS IMPACT EXCHANGE RATE BEHAVIOR? NEW INTERNATIONAL EVIDENCE

This study examines whether terrorist attacks affect bilateral exchange rates. Using historical 10‐minute exchange rate data for 21 countries' currency vis‐à‐vis the U.S. dollar, we show that exchange rate returns of all countries are statistically significantly affected by terrorist attacks. Some exchange rates appreciate and some depreciate following a terrorist attack, some currencies experience exchange rate reversals while others experience a persistent effect. Generally, the effect declines but persists as terrorist attacks become stale information. (JEL F31, F37)     

FISCAL STABILIZATION WITH PARTIAL EXCHANGE RATE PASS‐THROUGH

This article examines the role of fiscal stabilization policy in a two‐country framework that allows for partial exchange rate pass‐through. Analytical solutions for optimal monetary and fiscal policy rules depend on the degree of pass‐through. Each country unilaterally uses its fiscal instrument to stabilize the costs facing exporters. The welfare effects differ strongly depending on the degree of pass‐through. For high levels, both countries are better off with the fiscal instrument and welfare is closer to the benchmark flex‐price level. For low levels, however, the unilateral equilibrium policy rules lead to high volatility in taxes, and fiscal policy ends up being destabilizing by transmitting exchange rate fluctuations. Because these results stem from strategic considerations by the two countries, the fiscal instrument is not used under policy coordination. In addition, imposing a monetary union increases welfare when pass‐through is low, including the case of local currency pricing. (JEL E52, E63, F41, F42)     

Exchange rate regimes and the cross-country distribution of the 1997 financial crisis

We study variations in the severity of the 1997 financial crisis in a sample of 25 developing countries. We use both currency depreciation and stock market returns as crisis measures. Our key findings are that countries that started 1997 with an exchange rate peg experienced significantly greater currency depreciation and significantly lower stock returns than would be predicted from the levels of various macroeconomic indicators.     

CURRENT ACCOUNT ADJUSTMENT IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: THE ROLE OF EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES

This article employs hazard models to investigate the role of exchange rate regimes in the timing of current account adjustment in developing countries. We identify high current account deficit spells and find that fixed exchange rate regimes increase the duration of high deficit spells and thus delay current account adjustment. The result is robust to a variety of model specifications and alternative classifications of exchange rate regimes. When distinguishing between hard pegs and soft pegs, we notice that the delay in the current account adjustment is primarily driven by hard pegs rather than soft pegs. (JEL F3, F4)     

EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES AND FISCAL DISCIPLINE: THE ROLE OF CAPITAL CONTROLS

How do exchange rate regimes influence fiscal discipline? This important question has typically been addressed exploiting the classic dichotomy of fixed versus flexible exchange rate regimes assuming perfect capital mobility. However, the role of capital controls cannot be neglected, particularly in developing countries. This paper analyzes the effects of capital controls on fiscal performance by focusing on dual exchange rate regimes. In a model in which the fiscal policy is endogenously determined by a nonbenevolent fiscal authority, dual regimes induce politicians to have higher fiscal deficits than under fixed and flexible regimes operating under perfect capital mobility. The model also shows this effect increases as fiscal authorities become more impatient. Dynamic panel regressions confirm that dual regimes lead to higher fiscal deficits than fixed and flexible regimes operating under unified rates. Using a dummy for pre‐electoral year as an indicator of fiscal authorities' shortsightedness, we also confirm that dual exchange rate has a more adverse effect on fiscal deficits as the authorities become more impatient. (JEL E50, E60, F31, F41)     

Monetary Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Dynamics under Different Nominal Regimes

We investigate the dynamic relationship between the U.S. dollar exchange rate and its fundamentals across different exchange rate regimes using data from the late 1800s or early 1900s for six countries. For these countries there is evidence of a long-run relation between the exchange rate and monetary fundamentals consistent with conventional exchange rate theories. Employing a multivariate regime-switching framework, we find that the relative importance of exchange rates and fundamentals in restoring the long-run equilibrium implied by the exchange rate–monetary fundamentals model varies significantly over time and is affected by the exchange rate regime in operation. (JEL F31 )     

Do natural resource revenues lower government reliance on seigniorage? The role of exchange rate policy

The study investigates how the degree of exchange rate management conditions the relationship between seigniorage and governments’ natural resource revenues using a sample of 140 countries over the period from 1971 to 2012. It also disaggregates natural resource revenues to investigate if this relationship holds across the various types of natural resources. The main approach is to estimate dynamic panel data interaction models. The study finds that under exchange rate regimes characterized as fixed or of limited flexibility an increase in natural resource rents is associated with an increase in seigniorage. Under crawling currency bands and managed floating, an increase in natural resource rents has little association with seigniorage. Under exchange rate regimes permitting greater exchange rate flexibility, greater natural resource rents allow less reliance on seigniorage. Additionally, the direct relationship between natural resource rents and seigniorage is driven mostly by oil and natural gas.     

INDETERMINACY AND VOLATILITY OF EXCHANGE RATES UNDER IMPERFECT CURRENCY SUBSTITUTION

We know that when currencies are perfect substitutes, exchange rates could become indeterminate. We show that even when currencies are less than perfect substitutes exchange rates could display volatility unrelated to economic fundamentals. With increases in currency substitution: (1) the exchange rate becomes more sensitive to changes in economic fundamentals, increasing its volatility; (2) the exchange rate could become indeterminate, and it is more likely to become so if governments pursue similar monetary policies; (3) currencies with high nominal interest rates would decline significantly and the exchange rate becomes more sensitive to changes in the supply of those currencies.     

Time to Exchange the Exchange‐Rate Regime: Are Hard Pegs the Best Option for Low‐Income Countries?

This paper revisits the debate over the most appropriate exchange‐rate regime for low‐income countries. The debate revolves around: the effect of the exchange‐rate regime on macroeconomic management, particularly inflation; the links between the exchange‐rate regime and vulnerability to crisis (often in the form of twin banking and currency crises); and the effect on international trade and competitiveness. The theoretical and empirical literature and the views of international organisations are reviewed. It is concluded that a hard peg might constitute the most appropriate regime but this is contingent on a number of important preconditions. This view, supported by recent empirical research, is shown to be at odds with the current orthodoxy of international organisations such as the IMF.     

FINANCIAL FRICTIONS AND THE CHOICE OF EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES

This article provides a quantitative assessment of the role of financial frictions in the choice of exchange rate regimes. I use a two‐country model with sticky prices to compare different exchange rate arrangements. I simulate the model without and with borrowing constraints on investment, under monetary policy and technology shocks. I find that the stabilization properties of floating exchange rate regimes in face of foreign shocks are enhanced relative to fixed exchange rate in presence of credit frictions. In presence of symmetric and correlated shock, fixed exchange rates regimes can perform better than floating. This analysis can have important policy implications for accession countries joining the European Exchange Rate Mechanism II system and with high degrees of credit frictions. (JEL E3, E42, E44, E52, F41)     

REAL EXCHANGE RATE,MONETARY POLICY,AND THE U.S. ECONOMY: EVIDENCE FROM A FAVAR MODEL

This paper examines the effects of exchange rate depreciation to the U.S. economy in a factor‐augmented vector autoregression model using monthly data of 148 variables for the post–Bretton Woods period of 1973–2017. Exchange rate shock is identified to reflect exogenous disturbances to the foreign exchange market, and movements in exchange rate that are not accounted for by changes in the U.S. monetary policy. We find that depreciation is expansionary and inflationary to the broad U.S. economy, the current account improves over time conforming to the J‐curve theory, and monetary policy is leaning against the wind. (JEL E3, E5, F31, F32, F41)     

Estimates of Money Demand Functions for Estonia

This paper examines the money demand function of Estonia in the period 1995–2006. Since Estonia has a currency board system, euro area interest rates are taken into account. We apply different cointegration procedures like the Engle–Granger, the dynamic OLS, and the Johansen procedure to estimate the long-run relationship among money, output, and interest rates. The results show that it is difficult to find a cointegrating relationship for the broad money aggregate M2. For the preferred relationship including euro area money market rate and euro area bond rate a dynamic equation is estimated. This dynamic equation is stable for the whole period. The change of the anchor curreny in the currency board and the accession to the European Union do not alter the relationship.      

THE REAL EXCHANGE RATE AND REAL INTEREST DIFFERENTIALS: THE ROLE OF THE TREND‐CYCLE DECOMPOSITION

We propose an alternative model and method to reconcile the puzzling feature in the relationship between the real exchange rate and real interest rate differentials. Our simple two‐country model with preset prices, along with firms' misperception about the future exchange rate, implies that the real exchange rate follows an ARIMA(0,1,p) process. This allows us to compute the exact Beveridge‐Nelson decomposition, which is a model‐consistent decomposition. In accordance with our model, unit roots in the real exchange rates are found; and statistical inference is partially found to be affirmative regarding the link between the real exchange rate detrended by the Beveridge‐Nelson decomposition and corresponding real interest differentials. (JEL F31, F41)     

FLUCTUATING EXCHANGE RATES AND THE PRICING OF EXPORTS

The purpose of this paper is to examine the invoicing decision of an exporter under a system of pegged exchange rates and a system of freely fluctuating rates. With pegged exchange rates, the exporter may equivalently invoice in its home currency or in the currency of its foreign clients, since the two prices are related by the pegged rate. With fluctuating rates, however, the choice of an invoicing strategy is important and will affect the level of trade. The optimal prices with each strategy are compared, and the exporter's responses to governmental policy instruments are characterized.     

FINANCIAL AND INSURANCE SERVICES TRADE: DOES EXCHANGE RATE OR INCOME MATTER?

This paper aims to investigate the impacts of exchange rate and income changes on financial and insurance services trade by utilizing the quarterly bilateral trade data of the United States and its major trading partners from 2003 to 2017. No long‐run exchange rate effects on imports and exports of insurance services trade are found. The impact of exchange rates on insurance services may be weak since competition among service providers depends on product differentiation than on exchange rates. On the contrary, income demonstrates significant impacts on both financial and insurance services trade in the United Kingdom, Canada, Japan and Australia. (JEL C22, F14, G20)     

Exchange Rate Forecast: a New Approach for Armenian Dram

The paper contains an analysis of advantages and drawbacks of existing modeling approaches to exchange rate forecast and currency risk management. The behavioral features of foreign exchange market participants and their impact on market’s long-term memory were analyzed after the onset of significant events. Special attention was paid to the “Pareto distribution series” to find the point values of the rates that form the trends and determine the trajectory of currency rates. Based on the existing researches of FX rate prediction models authors developed an alternative approach that gives more accurate forecasts of the FX rates and, respectively, currency risk assessment in national banking systems.     

The Causes and Impact of the Brain Drain in Institutions of Higher Learning in Zimbabwe

The brain drain of professionals has now become a major concern in developing countries, especially in Zimbabwe, in particular. In this study, we sought to determine: (a) the causes for the exodus of professionals; (b) the impact of the massive exodus of professionals on higher education; (c) the effects of the brain drain on the quality of graduate produced; and (d) possible solutions that could be used to curb the massive exodus of professionals. A sample of three employers, ten current and eight former lecturers, ten current students and five members of management were used in this study. We collected data using a questionnaire, interviews and focus group discussions. In this study, we found that the major push factors include low remuneration, low job satisfaction, collapse of funding, the political climate and declining currency exchange regimes, while the pull factors include attractive salaries and research and study opportunities, among others. Both push and pull factors caused the brain drain in Zimbabwe.     

Migration and the Currency Denomination of Trade

Using a large, transaction‐level dataset of Italian exports and imports with non‐European Union countries, we assess the role of migrants’ networks in shaping the currency denomination of trade. Our results, new to the literature, show sizable, significant effects of migration on the currency denomination of trade. Generally, more migrants lead to more invoicing in the exporter's and importer's currency relative to a vehicle currency, higher educated migrants increase invoicing in the exporter's and importer's currency relative to a vehicle currency, and Italian migrants living in foreign countries have a greater impact relative to foreign migrants living in Italy.     

THE HETEROGENEITY OF IMMIGRANTS,HOST COUNTRIES' INCOME AND PRODUCTIVITY: A CHANNEL ACCOUNTING APPROACH

This article exploits changes in the distribution of immigrants across 20 Organization for Economic Co‐operation and Development countries from 1960 to 2005 in order to assess their contribution to income of destination countries. The non‐random sorting of immigrants across countries is addressed by using an instrumental variable strategy. The instrument is built by estimating a bilateral migration model incorporating exogenous origin country determinants of migration. Aggregate results reveal that immigrants have a positive effect on income that works primarily through total factor productivity (TFP). We further construct a novel dataset from censuses and labor force surveys to explore the information on the age of immigrants. Contrasting income effects are found across age groups: a higher share of immigrants among the youth has a negative impact on aggregate income, while a higher share of immigrants among prime‐aged workers has a positive effect. We interpret this disparity as short‐term versus medium‐term effects. Adjustments over time involve changes in TFP but also in the human capital of the native‐born. (JEL F22, J24, J31, O31)     

Transitional appreciation of equilibrium exchange rates and the ERM II

A suitable parity for exchange rate fixing can be derived from an analysis of the equilibrium exchange rate. As the equilibrium exchange rates of the new EU 5 countries, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovenia, and the Slovak Republic, tend to exhibit appreciation trends, credibility of the potential commitment to fixed exchange rate parity with respect to the euro can be undermined. In order to investigate this issue, we estimate a behavioral model of real exchange rates for EU 5 countries and derive the respective equilibrium real exchange rates. Using the linear-quadratic filter we estimate permanent equilibrium exchange rates and their stationary points. We find that as of 2004 fixing of the national currencies to the euro should not be undermined by further significant trend appreciation in the equilibrium exchange rates of the EU 5 countries, in aggregate.