关于第二次农业普查方案的设计思路

国务院通知(国发[2005]13号)规定第二次全国农业普查将于2006年实施,12月31日零时为查点时间。距查点工作目前的剩余时间不足一年半,如果考虑西藏、新疆、内蒙、青海以及边缘地区的提前登记情况(第一次农业普查时这些地区10月1日起开始查点),实际准备时间只有一年多一点,时间非常紧迫。在这一年多的时间内,我们要完成方案的设计,然后进行试点和确定最终设计方案;还要建立各级普查机构,选聘调查人员,培训各级普查人员(约720多万);另外还要落实各级普查经费、印刷调查表、储备普查物资、宣传动员等,任务相当艰巨。因此,若不抓紧研究确定第二次…     

PPS抽样设计的比估计及其模拟分析

本文在介绍简单随机抽样比估计的基础上,对PPS抽样设计的比估计进行了系统的研究,并使用了第一次农业普查数据对方法进行了模拟。从模拟结果可以看到,比估计方法可以解决一些调查精度和多目标调查的问题。     

Disaggregate-level estimates of indebtedness in the state of Uttar Pradesh in India: an application of small-area estimation technique

The National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO) surveys are the main source of official statistics in India, and generate a range of invaluable data at the macro level (e.g. state and national levels). However, the NSSO data cannot be used directly to produce reliable estimates at the micro level (e.g. district or further disaggregate level) due to small sample sizes. There is a rapidly growing demand of such micro-level statistics in India, as the country is moving from centralized to more decentralized planning system. In this article, we employ small-area estimation (SAE) techniques to derive model-based estimates of the proportion of indebted households at district or at other small-area levels in the state of Uttar Pradesh in India by linking data from the Debt–Investment Survey 2002–2003 of NSSO and the Population Census 2001 and the Agriculture Census 2003. Our results show that the model-based estimates are precise and representative. For many small areas, it is even not possible to produce estimates using sample data alone. The model-based estimates generated using SAE are still reliable for such areas. The estimates are expected to provide invaluable information to policy analysts and decision-makers.     

农村住户调查县级样本代表性评估方法研究

 全国农村住户调查县级样本在1984年抽选后几未改变,在全国农村住户新一轮样本轮换中对其代表性进行评估非常必要,因此研究开发县级样本代表性评估方法有重要意义。本文利用第二次全国农业普查和县市统计数据,以甘肃省为例,通过分析调查县样本特性、考察调查县的收入分布和地域分布,探索调查县农民收入水平对所在省农民收入水平代表性的评估与调查县调整方法。     

Small area estimation of proportions under a spatial dependent aggregated level random effects model

This paper describes small area estimation (SAE) of proportions under a spatial dependent generalized linear mixed model using aggregated level data. The SAE is also applied to produce reliable district level estimates and mapping of incidence of indebtedness in the State of Uttar Pradesh in India using debt and investment survey data collected by National Sample Survey Office (NSSO) and the secondary data from the Census. The results show a significant improvement in precision of model-based estimates generated by SAE as compared to direct estimates. The estimates generated by incorporating spatial information are more efficient than the one generated by ignoring this information.     

Multilevel modelling of refusal and non-contact in household surveys: evidence from six UK Government surveys

Summary.  We analyse household unit non-response in six major UK Government surveys by using a multilevel multinomial modelling approach. The models are guided by current conceptual frameworks and theories of survey participation. One key feature of the analysis is the investigation of the extent to which effects of household characteristics are survey specific. The analysis is based on the 2001 UK Census Link Study, which is a unique source of data containing an unusually rich set of auxiliary variables. The study contains the response outcome of six surveys, linked to census data and interviewer observations for both respondents and non-respondents.     

A controversial census topic: race and ethnicity in the British census

"This paper examines attempts to collect data on a politically controversial topic, race and ethnicity, in the British Census of Population in the post-war period. It discusses an indirect, proxy method of inferring race or ethnicity by asking for the country of birth of the respondent and of his parents, and a direct question where the respondent is asked to identify his racial or ethnic group. Different versions of the direct question are examined, as is the 1979 Census test, which resulted in considerable public resistance to the question. Following the exclusion of the direct question from the 1981 Census, the subject was reviewed by the Parliamentary Home Affairs Committee, the results of whose report--including practical suggestions as to question wording--are discussed."     

Exploring spatial dependence in area-level random effect model for disaggregate-level crop yield estimation

This paper describes an application of small area estimation (SAE) techniques under area-level spatial random effect models when only area (or district or aggregated) level data are available. In particular, the SAE approach is applied to produce district-level model-based estimates of crop yield for paddy in the state of Uttar Pradesh in India using the data on crop-cutting experiments supervised under the Improvement of Crop Statistics scheme and the secondary data from the Population Census. The diagnostic measures are illustrated to examine the model assumptions as well as reliability and validity of the generated model-based small area estimates. The results show a considerable gain in precision in model-based estimates produced applying SAE. Furthermore, the model-based estimates obtained by exploiting spatial information are more efficient than the one obtained by ignoring this information. However, both of these model-based estimates are more efficient than the direct survey estimate. In many districts, there is no survey data and therefore it is not possible to produce direct survey estimates for these districts. The model-based estimates generated using SAE are still reliable for such districts. These estimates produced by using SAE will provide invaluable information to policy-analysts and decision-makers.     

Variance estimation using auxiliary information under a one unit per stratum sample design

Several variance estimators using auxiliary information were compared for estimating the variance of the total or ratio under a one unit per stratum sample design. The auxiliary information used consisted of data from the 1977 and 1982 Economic Census. One thousand probability proportional to size one primary sampling unit per stratum samples were selected for the Monte Carlo study of characteristics of interest in a content evaluation survey as part of the 1982 Economic Census program. Six variance estimators were applied to each sample and their bias and mean square errors were evaluated. The results are strikingly different between the variance estimators of the estimated total and ratio.     

A three-sample multiple-recapture approach to census population estimation with heterogeneous catchability

"A central assumption in the standard capture-recapture approach to the estimation of the size of a closed population is the homogeneity of the 'capture' probabilities. In this article we develop an approach that allows for varying susceptibility to capture through individual parameters using a variant of the Rasch model from psychological measurement situations. Our approach requires an additional recapture. In the context of census undercount estimation, this requirement amounts to the use of a second independent sample or alternative data source to be matched with census and Post-Enumeration Survey (PES) data.... We illustrate [our] models and their estimation using data from a 1988 dress-rehearsal study for the 1990 census conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census, which explored the use of administrative data as a supplement to the PES. The article includes a discussion of extensions and related models."     

The case for small area microdata

Summary.  Census data are available in aggregate form for local areas and, through the samples of anonymized records (SARs), as samples of microdata for households and individuals. In 1991 there were two SAR files: a household file and an individual file. These have a high degree of detail on the census variables but little geographical detail, a situation that will be exacerbated for the 2001 SAR owing to the loss of district level geography on the individual SAR. The paper puts forward the case for an additional sample of microdata, also drawn from the census, that has much greater geographical detail. Small area microdata (SAM) are individual level records with local area identifiers and, to maintain confidentiality, reduced detail on the census variables. Population data from seven local authorities, including rural and urban areas, are used to define prototype samples of SAM. The rationale for SAM is given, with examples that demonstrate the role of local area information in the analysis of census data. Since there is a trade-off between the extent of local detail and the extent of detail on variables that can be made available, the confidentiality risk of SAM is assessed empirically. An indicative specification of the SAM is given, having taken into account the results of the confidentiality analysis.     

Concurrent Seasonal Adjustment With Census X-11

Much investigative effort is being expended worldwide toward improving seasonally adjusted estimates from the Census X-11 program. Several recent investigations have resulted in a recommendation to obtain the most recent month's adjustment by applying X-11 to data through that month (concurrent adjustment), rather than relying on projected factors obtained from an earlier run. Although there are theoretical arguments supporting the applicaton of X-11 concurrently, a comprehensive study documenting the results of concurrent adjustment with X-11 on U.S. economic series has not previously been undertaken. This study evaluates the effect of applying X-11 concurrently to a set of selected Census Bureau economic time series. The accuracy of concurrent estimates, in terms of mean absolute deviations from historical estimates, is examined. The results obtained are generally favorable to concurrent adjustment.     

Empirical Bayes Small-Area Estimation Using Logistic Regression Models and Summary Statistics

Many of the available methods for estimating small-area parameters are model-based approaches in which auxiliary variables are used to predict the variable of interest. For models that are nonlinear, prediction is not straightforward. MacGibbon and Tomberlin and Farrell, MacGibbon, and Tomberlin have proposed approaches that require microdata for all individuals in a small area. In this article, we develop a method, based on a second-order Taylor-series expansion to obtain model-based predictions, that requires only local-area summary statistics for both continuous and categorical auxiliary variables. The methodology is evaluated using data based on a U.S. Census.     

How increased automation will improve the 1990 census of population and housing of the United States

"The U.S. Bureau of the Census will increase significantly the automation of operations for the 1990 Census of Population and Housing, thus eliminating or reducing many of the labor-intensive clerical operations of past censuses and contributing to the speedier release of data products. An automated address control file will permit the computer to monitor the enumeration status of an address. The automated address file will also make it possible to begin electronic data processing concurrently with data collection, and, thus, 5-7 months earlier than for the 1980 Census. An automated geographic support system will assure consistency between various census geographic products, and computer-generated maps will be possible. Other areas where automation will be introduced or increased are questionnaire editing, coding of written entries on questionnaires, and reporting of progress and cost by field offices."     

中国农业支持政策效应分析

中国农业政策从对农业征税转向支持农业,主要包括直接补贴政策、生产投入补贴政策和取消农业税。根据中国实际简化的OECD政策评估模型分模拟结果表明,粮食生产投入补贴政策的效应大于粮食生产直接补贴政策的效应。在当前的形势下,加大投入补贴力度、适当增加直接补贴力度对增加粮食生产和农民收入具有重要作用和意义。     

Are there interregional differences in the response of cigarette smoking to state cigarette excise taxes in the USA? Exploratory analysis

Within the context of the period fixed-effects model, this study uses a 2002–2009 state-level panel data set of the USA to investigate the relative impact of state cigarette excise taxation across the nation in reducing cigarette smoking. In particular, by focusing upon the state cigarette excise taxation levels within each of the nine US Census Divisions, this study investigates whether there are inter-regional differences in the rate of responsiveness of cigarette consumption to increased state cigarette taxes. The initial empirical estimates reveal that although the per capita number of packs of cigarettes smoked annually is a decreasing function of the state cigarette excise tax in all nine Census Regions, the relative response of cigarette smoking to state cigarette tax increases varies considerably from one region to the next. Reinforcing this conclusion, in one specification of the model, the number of packs of cigarettes smoked in response to a higher state cigarette tax is statistically significant and negative in only eight of the nine Census Divisions. Furthermore, when cigarette smoking is measured in terms of the percentage of the population classified as smokers, interregional differentials in the response of smokers to higher state cigarette taxes are much greater. Thus, there is evidence that cigarette excise taxation exercises rather different impacts on the propensity to smoke across Census Regions.     

中国经济普查的组织机制与 数据质量控制

 本研究通过梳理2004年中国经济普查中的技术环节和组织环节，说明将普查的全过程纳入中国政府的行政系列，从组织体系和技术组织层面上保障了普查的数据质量；但这种行政组织方式也存在三个一般统计调查不宜发生的“调整性误差”、“局部整体性误差”和“心理倾向性误差”。要消除这些误差就要完善政绩考核评价体系，科学定位经济普查功能，改革经济普查组织方式，提高统计部门独立性，改进普查经费保障机制、数据采集方式。     

Adjusting the 1980 census of population and housing

"In 1980, several cities and states sued the U.S. Census Bureau to correct census results. This correction would adjust for the differential undercounting of Blacks and Hispanics, especially in cities. In this article, the authors, each of whom testified for New York City and State in their joint lawsuit against the Census Bureau, describe the likely pattern of the undercount and present a method to adjust for it." The authors describe available methods for data adjustment and introduce a regression-based composite method of adjustment, which is used to estimate the undercounts for 66 areas. "As expected, we find that the highest undercount rates are in large cities, and the lowest are in states and state remainders with small percentages of Blacks and Hispanics. Next, we analyze how sensitive our estimates are to changes in data and modeling assumptions. We find that these changes do not affect the estimates very much. Our conclusion is that regardless of whether we use one of the simple methods or the composite method and regardless of how we vary the assumptions of the composite method, an adjustment reliably reduces population shares in states with few minorities and increases the shares of large cities."     

Accuracy of the 1990 census and undercount adjustments

"In July 1991 the [U.S.] Census Bureau recommended to its parent agency, the Department of Commerce, that the 1990 census be adjusted for undercount. The Secretary of Commerce decided not to adjust, however. Those decisions relied at least partly on the Census Bureau's analyses of the accuracy of the census and of the proposed undercount adjustments based on the Post-Enumeration Survey (PES).... This article describes the total error analysis and loss function analysis of the Census Bureau. In its decision not to adjust the census, the Department of Commerce cited different criteria than aggregate loss functions. Those criteria are identified and discussed."