Country-of-origin determinants of foreign direct investment in an emerging market: the case of Mexico

Foreign direct investment (FDI) research has generally focused on inward FDI to large, developed nations. Very limited research has examined the country-of-origin factors that are related to FDI into the developing nations (emerging markets) that are becoming increasingly important in the global economy. In this paper, we provide the first empirical test of a multidimensional, country-of-origin model of factors related to FDI in an emerging market — Mexico. Economic, socio-political, and geographic factors are hypothesized to be important country-of-origin determinants of FDI into Mexico. The results indicate that some factors, such as the level of bilateral trade, home-country GDP, political risk, geographic distance, and exchange rates, are related to FDI into Mexico. At the same time, relationships between FDI and country-of-origin factors, such as market size (GDP) and cultural distance, that have previously held in research on FDI to large, developed nations do not hold in the same way in the emerging market context. Separate consideration of efficiency-seeking (maquila) FDI indicates that bilateral trade, wage rate, GDP, and the exchange rate contribute significantly to the explanation of inward FDI in Mexico.     

TRADE QUOTAS AND BUYER POWER,WITH AN APPLICATION TO THE E.U. NATURAL GAS MARKET

We consider a market in which domestic buyers negotiate contracts with foreign sellers, and explore how trade quotas can help to increase the buyers' countervailing power. We use the Shapley value to describe bargaining power and the distribution of the trade surplus in such a bilateral oligopoly. By exploiting strategic externalities among the buyers, bilateral trade quotas can improve the buyers' bargaining positions. In contrast, aggregate trade restrictions on all buyers' trade never improve buyer surplus. Minimum quotas on imports from fringe suppliers can benefit nonaffected buyers, as these enjoy positive externalities. We apply these insights to the E.U. market for natural gas and show that the effects of trade quotas on E.U. gas importers' power can be significant.     

VOLATILITY,LABOR MARKET FLEXIBILITY,AND THE PATTERN OF COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE

This paper studies the link between volatility, labor market flexibility, and international trade. International differences in labor market regulations affect how firms can adjust to idiosyncratic shocks. These institutional differences interact with sector specific differences in volatility (the variance of the firm‐specific shocks in a sector) to generate a new source of comparative advantage. Other things equal, countries with more flexible labor markets specialize in sectors with higher volatility. Empirical evidence for a large sample of countries strongly supports this theory: the exports of countries with more flexible labor markets are biased towards high‐volatility sectors. We show how differences in labor market institutions can be parsimoniously integrated into the workhorse model of Ricardian comparative advantage of Dornbusch, Fischer, and Samuelson (1977, American Economic Review, 67, 823–839). We also show how our model can be extended to multiple factors of production.     

Nonhomotheticity and Bilateral Trade: Evidence and a Quantitative Explanation

The standard gravity model predicts that trade flows increase in proportion to importer and exporter total income, regardless of how income is divided into income per capita and population. Bilateral trade data, however, show that trade grows strongly with income per capita and is largely unresponsive to population. I develop a general equilibrium Ricardian model of trade that allows the elasticity of trade with respect to income per capita and with respect to population to diverge. Goods are of various types, which differ in their income elasticity of demand and in the extent to which there is heterogeneity in their production technologies. I estimate the model using bilateral trade data of 162 countries and compare it to a special case that delivers the gravity equation. The general model improves the restricted model's predictions regarding variations in trade due to size and income. I experiment with counterfactuals. A positive technology shock in China makes poor and rich countries better off and middle‐income countries worse off.     

Trade credit: the interaction of financing,marketing, operations,and risk behavior

This paper builds an inter-organizational Stackelberg game model of trade credit. The incentive-compatible decision on credit term is made endogenously and in coordination to ensure Pareto optimality for both the supplier and the retailer. Our model factors in financing, marketing, operations, default risk, and risk attitude coherently, treating trade credit as their intersectional nexus. We introduce the uncertainty due to the possible default of the retailer on the accounts payable into our model. The in-kind nature of trade credit is in line with the two-stage lottery method employed in this paper to capture the consequences of default on trade credit effectively. We find that financing capacity encourages the supplier to extend the credit term: a larger market demand rate prompts the supplier to extend a longer credit term, but a higher holding cost for the retailer shortens the length of the credit term received. More risk-averse suppliers tend to grant shorter term, but the impact of risk attitude is insignificant. Empirically, we find evidence supporting our main theoretical predictions by employing a panel sample of manufacturing companies covering 1998–2007 from the COMPUSTAT database.     

Decentralized Trading With Private Information

The paper studies how asset prices are determined in a decentralized market with asymmetric information about asset values. We consider an economy in which a large number of agents trade two assets in bilateral meetings. A fraction of the agents has private information about the asset values. We show that, over time, uninformed agents can elicit information from their trading partners by making small offers. This form of experimentation allows the uninformed agents to acquire information as long as there are potential gains from trade in the economy. As a consequence, the economy converges to a Pareto efficient allocation.     

产品市场竞争优势、资本结构与商业信用支持——基于中国上市公司的实证研究

以2005年-2013年中国上市公司为样本,探讨产品市场竞争优势的含义及度量方法,产品市场竞争优势对企业资本结构与商业信用支持的影响,以及宏观、行业和微观因素如何发挥调节作用.研究发现:第一,产品市场竞争优势有助于降低企业的负债水平,并刺激企业对上下游企业提供更多的商业信用支持;第二,在经济越发达的地区、竞争强度越弱的行业,以及民营控股上市公司中,产品市场竞争优势会进一步降低企业的负债水平,同时加强其对上下游企业的商业信用支持.研究结论为从理论上更加全面和准确地理解产品市场竞争优势与企业资本结构和商业信用支持的关系提供了新的科学依据.     

Cursed Equilibrium

There is evidence that people do not fully take into account how other people's actions depend on these other people's information. This paper defines and applies a new equilibrium concept in games with private information, cursed equilibrium, which assumes that each player correctly predicts the distribution of other players' actions, but underestimates the degree to which these actions are correlated with other players' information. We apply the concept to common‐values auctions, where cursed equilibrium captures the widely observed phenomenon of the winner's curse, and to bilateral trade, where cursedness predicts trade in adverse‐selections settings for which conventional analysis predicts no trade. We also apply cursed equilibrium to voting and signalling models. We test a single‐parameter variant of our model that embeds Bayesian Nash equilibrium as a special case and find that parameter values that correspond to cursedness fit a broad range of experimental datasets better than the parameter value that corresponds to Bayesian Nash equilibrium.     

Supply Chain Strategies and International Tax Arbitrage

What motivates the geographic footprint of the supply chains that multinational firms (MNFs) deploy? Traditional research in the operations and supply chain management literature tends to recommend locations primarily based on differentials in production costs and the ramifications of physical distance ignoring the role of taxation. MNFs that strategically position parts of their supply chains in low‐tax locations can allocate the profits across the divisions to improve post‐tax profits. For the profit allocation to be defensible to tax authorities, the divisional operations must possess real decision authority and bear meaningful risks. Generally speaking, the greater the transfer of risk and control, the larger the allowable allocation of profit. These transfers may also create inefficiencies due to misalignment of business goals and attitudes toward risk. We model these trade‐offs in the context of placing in a low‐tax region a subsidiary that oversees product distribution (as a limited risk distributor commissionnaire, limited risk distributor, or fully fledged distributor). Our analysis demonstrates that the MNF's preferences regarding the operating structures are not necessarily an obvious ordering based on the amount of risk and decision authority transferred to the division in the low‐tax jurisdiction. We derive and analyze threshold values of the performance parameters that describe the main trade‐offs involved in selecting an operating structure. We find some of the optimal decisions to exhibit interesting non‐monotone behavior. For instance, profits can increase when the tax rate in the low‐tax jurisdiction increases. Numerical analysis shows that the Limited‐Risk Distributor structure is rarely optimal and quantifies when each alternative dominates it.     

Assessing Markups,Service Quality,and Product Attributes in Music CDs' Internet Retailing

We investigate trade‐offs among markups, service quality, and product attributes across customer, Internet retailer, and wholesaler echelons. Research has documented the reality of retail price dispersion, but little is known about how retail markups, in particular, are related to service quality and product attributes. For example, do Internet retailers deliver superior service in return for high markups? Do product characteristics affect the relationship between service and markups for retailers? To examine these issues, we first developed a model of Internet retail profitability that separates revenues and costs related to sales from other profit sources. This framework allowed us to position our work alongside the extant literature about Internet retailing. Moreover, it led us to synthesize service quality dimensions found in Internet retailing studies. We subsequently developed a critical‐event study based on the profit model and the synthesis of service quality dimensions to delineate service aspects that retailers should emphasize to address buyers' utility. Finally, we collected data from Internet purchases across retailers to isolate markup‐service quality trade‐offs along our delineated service aspects. We find that high markups are associated with superior performance across service quality dimensions. Furthermore, this trade‐off becomes more acutely defined when products with variable popularity are transacted.     

An Elementary Theory of Comparative Advantage

Comparative advantage, whether driven by technology or factor endowment, is at the core of neoclassical trade theory. Using tools from the mathematics of complementarity, this paper offers a simple yet unifying perspective on the fundamental forces that shape comparative advantage. The main results characterize sufficient conditions on factor productivity and factor supply to predict patterns of international specialization in a multifactor generalization of the Ricardian model which we refer to as an “elementary neoclassical economy.” These conditions, which hold for an arbitrarily large number of countries, goods, and factors, generalize and extend many results from the previous trade literature. They also offer new insights about the joint effects of technology and factor endowments on international specialization.     

The Impact of Logistics Performance on Trade

This paper studies the impact of logistics performance on global bilateral trade. Taking a supply chain perspective, logistics performance refers to cost, time, and complexity in accomplishing import and export activities. We draw on a data set compiled by the World Bank containing specific quantitative metrics of logistics performance in terms of time, cost, and variability in time. Numerous researchers have shown that logistics performance is statistically significantly related to the volume of bilateral trade. Our research calibrates the impact of specific improvements in logistics performance (time, cost, and reliability) on increased trade. Our findings can spur public and private agencies that have direct or indirect influence over logistics performance to focus attention on altering the most relevant aspects of logistics performance to improve their country's ability to compete in today's global economy. Moreover, as our logistics metrics are directly related to operational performance, countries can use these metrics to target actions to improve logistics and monitor their progress.     

Performance Improvement Paths in the U.S. Airline Industry:Linking Trade‐offs to Asset Frontiers

Several articles have been written during the past few years examining performance improvement paths and various forms of efficiency frontiers in operations strategy. These articles focus primarily on defining and describing these frontiers and raise questions concerning how to improve operations. In this paper, we provide one of the first empirical studies aimed at validating these earlier studies. Using a database on the 10 largest U.S. airlines for a period of 11 years, we test and validate some of the models presented in the operations literature. The 10 major airlines are separated into 2 groups for analysis: geographic specialists and geographic generalists. Our analysis shows that better performing airlines (in terms of cost‐quality position) in both groups confirm the predictions of the sand cone model when operating further away from their asset frontiers, although trade‐offs do occur when operating close to asset frontiers.     

Local, regional, or global? Geographic orientation and relative financial performance of emerging market multinational enterprises

We extend the regional/global strategies literature by analyzing the relative performance of emerging market (EM) multinational enterprises (MNEs) based on their geographic orientation. We develop a framework showing that firms adopt three geographic orientations—local, regional, and global—and test our framework with the market penetration strategies (sales) of 701 MNEs from 28 EMs during 2000–2006. Our analysis shows that distinguishing among these three geographic segments is important, as not all of these geographic segments enhance firms’ financial performance relative to their industry: a combination of local and global orientations enhances while regional orientation reduces the relative financial performance of EM MNEs.     

A Bayesian Evidence Synthesis for Estimating Campylobacteriosis Prevalence

Stakeholders making decisions in public health and world trade need improved estimations of the burden‐of‐illness of foodborne infectious diseases. In this article, we propose a Bayesian meta‐analysis or more precisely a Bayesian evidence synthesis to assess the burden‐of‐illness of campylobacteriosis in France. Using this case study, we investigate campylobacteriosis prevalence, as well as the probabilities of different events that guide the disease pathway, by (i) employing a Bayesian approach on French and foreign human studies (from active surveillance systems, laboratory surveys, physician surveys, epidemiological surveys, and so on) through the chain of events that occur during an episode of illness and (ii) including expert knowledge about this chain of events. We split the target population using an exhaustive and exclusive partition based on health status and the level of disease investigation. We assume an approximate multinomial model over this population partition. Thereby, each observed data set related to the partition brings information on the parameters of the multinomial model, improving burden‐of‐illness parameter estimates that can be deduced from the parameters of the basic multinomial model. This multinomial model serves as a core model to perform a Bayesian evidence synthesis. Expert knowledge is introduced by way of pseudo‐data. The result is a global estimation of the burden‐of‐illness parameters with their accompanying uncertainty.     

Growth,Trade and Factor Endowment: A Survey

This paper examines the relationship between factor endowment, human capital formation and trade in the theory of economic growth. The paper analyses the evolution of the idea that both trade and human capital play a leading role in explaining country performance and development. Economic growth, dynamic comparative advantage, international specialization and cumulative technological progress are identified as the key ingredients that explain why countries perform differently and, at the same time, why they may tend to converge towards a common benchmark.     

Options Contracts with Overbooking in the Air Cargo Industry

In today's world economy, which is marked by intensified international trade, air cargo acts as a key facilitator. However, cargo airlines continue to struggle to be profitable because of very high asset costs and substantial demand uncertainty. To improve upon this situation, we propose an options contract. Our model captures the main features of cargo trade between an airline and a freight forwarder and allows us to derive an optimal reservation policy. We then go on to analyze the impact of overbooking on the profit of the cargo capacity provider. The model is subsequently applied to real‐life booking data provided by a major cargo carrier. This enables us to compare current contractual arrangements with the ones proven optimal in the model. A numerical study provides insights about the impact of overbooking on contract parameters and profitability. Managerial insights to be drawn conclude this study.     

Prices,Markups, and Trade Reform

This paper examines how prices, markups, and marginal costs respond to trade liberalization. We develop a framework to estimate markups from production data with multi‐product firms. This approach does not require assumptions on the market structure or demand curves faced by firms, nor assumptions on how firms allocate their inputs across products. We exploit quantity and price information to disentangle markups from quantity‐based productivity, and then compute marginal costs by dividing observed prices by the estimated markups. We use India's trade liberalization episode to examine how firms adjust these performance measures. Not surprisingly, we find that trade liberalization lowers factory‐gate prices and that output tariff declines have the expected pro‐competitive effects. However, the price declines are small relative to the declines in marginal costs, which fall predominantly because of the input tariff liberalization. The reason for this incomplete cost pass‐through to prices is that firms offset their reductions in marginal costs by raising markups. Our results demonstrate substantial heterogeneity and variability in markups across firms and time and suggest that producers benefited relative to consumers, at least immediately after the reforms.     

Transfer Pricing and Sourcing Strategies for Multinational Firms

Taking advantage of low tax rates using transfer pricing and taking advantage of low production costs using offshoring are two strategies multinational firms (MNFs) use to increase profits. We identify an important trade‐off that MNFs face in setting their transfer prices: the conflict between (i) the incentive role and (ii) the tax role of the transfer price. For MNFs, we find the profit‐maximizing transfer‐pricing strategies that motivate divisional management to (i) make good sourcing decisions and (ii) take advantage of favorable tax rates. We quantify the absolute and relative maximum inefficiency in terms of the after‐tax MNF's profit change from using a single transfer‐pricing system as compared to the dual transfer‐pricing system. We show that the highest relative loss is attained when the average sourcing cost and the tax differential are high. We demonstrate that the highest absolute loss is attained when the average outsourcing cost is approximately equal to the offshoring cost. We extend our results to two practical variations in MNF structures: an MNF that faces operational constraints on its offshoring capacity and an MNF that uses compensation contracts linked to after‐tax firm‐wide profits. Our insights help MNFs' managers identify when to use single and dual transfer‐pricing systems.     

碳交易政策下多式联运路径选择问题的鲁棒优化研究

针对碳交易政策下的多式联运路径选择问题,考虑运输时间和单位运费率不确定且其概率分布未知的情况,引入鲁棒优化建模方法对其进行研究。首先利用box不确定集合刻画分布未知的运输时间和运费率,然后在碳交易政策下确定模型的基础上,构建鲁棒性可调节的多式联运路径选择模型,并通过对偶转化得到相对易求解的鲁棒等价模型。实例分析表明,鲁棒模型能较好地处理参数概率分布未知的多式联运路径选择问题,方便决策者根据偏好调整不确定预算水平进行决策。运输时间和单位运费率的不确定性都会影响多式联运路径决策,但是作用机理有所不同。将上述碳交易政策下的模型拓展到其他低碳政策,结果表明多种低碳政策的组合能更好实现多式联运减排。