Journal Rankings in Business and Management and the 2001 Research Assessment Exercise in the UK

The public availability of detailed data from the 2001 Research Assessment Exercise in the UK allows an analysis of the publications cited in submissions to the Business and Management panel. Eighty per cent of the 9,942 publications submitted were journal articles. Submissions to the RAE can be scored in terms of the number of citations they make to journals that appear on various lists, such as the Financial Times list. The concentration of articles in a minority of journals, with 50% of all citations to just 126 journals, means that a core list of business and management journals can be compiled. The core list presented contains 562 journals out of the 1582 journal titles that were cited in Business and Management submissions. It includes all journals with more than two citations overall at least one citation in a 5^*, 5 or 4 rated submission. It also includes all journals cited in the RAE from Starbuck's ranked lists of journals and the Financial Times list.     

On Academic Rankings,Unacceptable Methods,and the Social Obligations of Business Schools

Inspired by recent discussions of the systematic costs that external rankings impose on academic institutions, and the undeniable shifts in the landscape of institutional data, a concerted and pragmatic re‐evaluation of ranking efforts has begun. In this study, multiple administrators and researchers representing both public and private institutions across the United States weigh in on these issues. While reaffirming the social contract we hold with society, we argue that the fundamental methodological shortcomings of existing rankings, and ultimately any ordinal ranking system, limit the value of current rankings. These shortcomings emerge from the conceptualization and the architecture of comparisons, and are evident in survey designs, data collection methods, and data aggregation procedures. Our discussion continues by outlining the minimal requirements that a socially responsible, transparent, flexible, and highly representative rating (vs. ranking) approach should employ. Ultimately, we call on academic institutions and organizing bodies to take a collective stand against existing rankings and to embrace the strategic use of multidimensional alternatives that faithfully serve prospective students, parents, and other key stakeholders. We conclude with a number of suggestions and opportunities for practice‐oriented research in the decision sciences aimed to support this fundamental shift in evaluative framing.     

Inventory Sharing in the Presence of Commodity Markets

This study investigates the value of inventory sharing in the presence of spot and forward markets. We consider a multi‐period setting where two firms process a common commodity to meet stochastic demands. They can buy and sell the commodity through both the spot and forward markets. They can also share the commodity if one has leftover inventory while the other has excess demand. We first characterize the equilibrium strategies of the two firms. Our analysis reveals that in such a context, the value of inventory sharing is low when the forward price is directly used to value the sharing transactions. We then develop a structured trans‐shipment price scheme that uses a linear combination of the spot and forward prices. We show that this method can substantially increase the value of inventory sharing. Our analysis also reveals that in the presence of liquid spot and forward markets, the value of inventory sharing mainly results from the difference of the transaction costs, and it increases if the market in which firms operate becomes more competitive.     

An Overview of Welfare Reform in Italy

Samuelson stated in 1967 that “the beauty about social insurance is that ... everyone who reaches retirement age is given benefit privileges that far exceed anything he has paid in”. Such an optimistic belief seems to have been widely shared in Italy, where until the beginning of the reform process in 1992 social security could be described as a continuous succession of highly generous and diversified promises of payment made by the state to the different categories of workers on the basis of salary earned in the final stage of working life. The pension reform introduced by the Dini government in 1995 led to the adoption of a contribution-based method of calculation, which meant a return to the forgotten “golden rule” that the financial equilibrium of pay-as-you-go systems is ensured only if the implicit yield is equal to the rate of growth of the taxable basis of social security contributions. Equilibrium would thus be safeguarded, restoring itself automatically after any accidental disruption caused by demographic or economic upheaval, and operating regardless of the capacity and will of governments and of the majorities supporting them. The great efforts made to build up sufficient consensus with respect to such radical modifications of principle were, however, accompanied by a marked caution in bringing the system into full effect. This has left the country with the problem of accelerating transition to the new mechanism of calculating contributions, applied initially only to the newly employed and pro rata to workers with less than 18 years of contributions paid in, thereby making for a very long period of transition. In such a connection, a recent proposal has suggested that the state should try to induce workers to agree freely to a reduction in their accrued pension entitlements through the public system in return for a share in the process of privatization. If government were to repay the pension debt “below par”, this would allow for greater savings on future expenditure by using part of the revenues of privatization to pay off the pension debt in advance rather than by using these sums to pay off the national debt. More radical approaches aiming at cutting back social spending, would fail to take into account the risks involved in the collapse of public trust and of the structures that have hitherto guaranteed the cohesion of Italian society and the conditions for entrepreneurial commitment. On the other hand, an unbridled bottom-up proliferation of networks of social cohesion, supplementary voluntary bodies and non-profit initiatives may involve the risk of further arbitrary action being taken in the name of income redistribution. The social market requires bottom-up action on the part of associations, but also the guarantee of state-imposed rules that are equal for all parties and of a market that is free from the distortions of competition regulated from the top. A welfare state that has too often disguised the redistribution of resources in non-transparent forms must be replaced by a transparent welfare system effecting an explicit redistribution of resources and allowing a suitably regulated market to operate without indulging continually in further forms of “correction”. This calls for the introduction of a microchip “citizen card”, able to offer characteristics both of uniformity and of fine-tuning in terms of specific conditions of age, income, assets, education, etc., so as to permit forms of selection and/or cost sharing where desirable. Some of the rights to welfare services incorporated in the “citizen card” could in fact be assigned in monetary form but restricted to specific uses. Such “social money”, conveniently based on modern technological transaction structures, could become the money of the state sector, the private sector, and the third sector of non-profit organizations and associations, enabling all parties to respond to the objective demand expressed by citizens in conditions of competition that are free of supply-side distortion.     

The Impact of the Potential Entry of Copycats: Entry Conditions,Consumer Welfare,and Social Welfare

This article examines the implications of the potential entry of a copycat who produces and sells a copycat (i.e., imitation) product that competes with the incumbent product. By analyzing a two‐period dynamic noncooperative game between these two firms, we identify conditions under which the copycat can gain successful market entry. More importantly, we find that the potential entry of a copycat creates (implicit) pressure for the incumbent to lower its selling price; hence, it improves consumer welfare. Finally, we identify conditions under which the potential entry of a copycat can increase social welfare (i.e., consumer welfare and the profit of both firms).      

Union Power in a Welfare State

Abstract. Most West European countries have suffered from stagflation for many years. Mainstream economics has debated the question in particular in terms of the demand and supply of goods, labour and capital. But in recent contributions a new element has been introduced: the institutional structure of the economy as a source of imbalances. In this article we focus on the institutions of the labour market. For more than a century West European unions have been struggling to transform market economies into a more efficient and just order. Moral persuasion, strikes, and revolutionary threats were their main weapons. After the Second World War governments yielded to the pressure by building up, together with the unions, a welfare state. During the sixties however, the struggle was renewed, although the governments continued to improve the social security system and maintained their responsibility for full employment. A short sketch will be given of the ideological struggle during the first half of the twentieth century, leading to a significant institutional change: the transformation of a system of private wage bargaining into a collective wage bargaining system. Then the neoclassical, the Marxist and the Keynesian view on the effects of union power on the economic performance of a market economy and of a welfare state will be presented. The conclusion is drawn that the methods required to transform a market economy into a welfare state are anomalies as soon as a welfare state is more or less realized. This is particularly so, because the transformation of a welfare state into a centrally planned economy cannot be considered desirable. In present circumstances, it would be appropriate to pay more attention to the design of an extensive system of mediation and arbitrage to reduce the use of the strike weapon.     

考虑促销因素的医药电商平台需求预测研究

医药电商平台需求预测涉及到药品自身属性及电商平台推出的各种促销活动,本文针对以上影响药品销量的因素提出了时间序列-机器学习组合模型对医药电商平台进行需求预测。传统研究促销因素的需求预测文献将促销阶段商品销量拆分为常规销量和促销增量的线性组合,本文首先拟合各药品促销阶段的常规销量,根据各药品常规销量时间序列数据及服用周期,使用SARIMA模型拟合药品的常规销量预测值,并将常规销量预测值与商品促销特征数据一同输入XGBoost模型进行集成学习预测。本文使用国内某医药电商平台真实销售数据测试组合模型的有效性,结果显示组合预测模型的预测效果相比其他三种传统预测模型更优。此外,本文验证了不同折扣力度下组合预测模型的有效性,以及促销变量在预测模型中的有效性,同时研究了数据共享策略在需求预测中的应用场景,结果显示预测模型在引入促销变量和采用数据共享策略后都能显著降低模型的预测误差。     

Quantity Flexibility Contract in the Presence of Discount Incentive

We design a new contract, which we refer to as the QFi contract, that combines the quantity flexibility (QF) mechanism and the price‐only discount incentive. Under the QF contract, the buyer does not assume full responsibility for the forecast, yet the supplier guarantees the availability of the forecasted quantity and extra buffer inventory. In contrast, the price‐only discount contract places full inventory burden on the buyer. We show that the proposed QFi contract effectively balances the inventory risk for both the buyer and the supplier considering both the QF and discount mechanisms. We also show that the QFi contract is able to achieve supply chain coordination. More importantly, the QFi contract's coordinating price scheme does not require knowledge of demand distribution. We identify areas where the buyer and supplier may both benefit from implementing the QFi contract as opposed to the extant QF or price‐only (wholesale) discount contractual decisions in a decentralized supply chain. We also specify the conditions under which supply chain coordination can be achieved in a win‐win manner. We conclude with managerial implications and provide directions for future research.     

Managing Clearance Sales in the Presence of Strategic Customers

We study the effect of strategic customer behavior on pricing and rationing decisions of a firm selling a single product over two periods. The seller may limit the availability of the product (that is, ration) in the second (clearance) period. Some customers are strategic and respond to the firm's decisions by timing their purchases. When capacity is nonconstraining and the seller has pricing flexibility, we show that rationing in the clearance period cannot improve revenue. However, when prices are fixed in advance, rationing can improve revenue. In the latter case, we conduct a detailed analysis for linear and exponential demand curves and derive explicit expressions for optimal rationing levels. We find that the policy of doing the better of not restricting availability at the clearance price or not offering the product at the clearance price is typically near optimal. Our analysis also suggests that rationing—although sometimes offering considerable benefit over allowing unrestricted availability in the clearance period—may allow the seller to obtain only a small fraction of the optimal revenue when the prices are chosen optimally without rationing. We extend the analysis to cases where the capacity is constraining and obtain similar results.     

Procurement Contracts in the Presence of Endogenous Disruption Risk

We consider a manufacturer facing an unreliable supplier with high or low type on initial reliability. The private reliability can be enhanced through process improvement initiated by either manufacturer (manufacturer‐initiated improvement, MI) or supplier (supplier‐initiated improvement, SI). We derive optimal procurement contracts for both mechanisms and find that the moral hazard does not necessarily generate more profit for high‐type supplier. Furthermore, information asymmetry causes a greater possibility of not ordering from low type in SI than MI. For low type, when an upward effort distortion appears in both mechanisms, a decreased (increased) unit penalty should be imposed in MI (SI) compared with symmetric information case. Although possibly efficient effort from the supplier could yield greater channel profit in SI, several scenarios violate this expectation. However, the manufacturer's expected profit in MI is no less than that in SI. When MI is extended to MSI where both manufacturer and supplier can exert effort, the expected profits of two parties are equal to those in SI. We further extend SI to SID, where both process improvement and dual‐sourcing are available. The manufacturer considers the trade‐off between the benefit from diversification and the loss from dual information rent to decide to choose SID or MI. By comparing SID with pure dual‐sourcing, we find that supplier's process improvement could either accelerate or retard the exercise of dual‐sourcing.     

基于有限理性消费者的竞争性退款保证策略

考虑有限理性消费者的前提下研究了低质和高质零售商关于退款保证的策略竞争。进一步将模型扩展到存在产品质量差异的情形,研究产品质量对双方策略的影响。研究表明:只有当有限理性消费者数量高于一定临界值时,提供退款保证才是有利可图的。在产品质量对称的市场上,零售商关于退款保证的均衡局面为同时提供退款保证,且此时退款保证对低质企业更有利;而在产品质量非对称的市场上,零售商关于退款保证的均衡局面可能为低质企业不提供,高质企业提供或双方同时提供。此时退款保证更倾向于对高质企业有利。     

Adaptive Spatial Sampling of Contaminated Soil

Suppose that a residential neighborhood may have been contaminated by a nearby abandoned hazardous waste site. The suspected contamination consists of elevated soil concentrations of chemicals that are also found in the absence of site-related contamination. How should a risk manager decide which residential properties to sample and which ones to clean? This paper introduces an adaptive spatial sampling approach which uses initial observations to guide subsequent search. Unlike some recent model-based spatial data analysis methods, it does not require any specific statistical model for the spatial distribution of hazards, but instead constructs an increasingly accurate nonparametric approximation to it as sampling proceeds. Possible cost-effective sampling and cleanup decision rules are described by decision parameters such as the number of randomly selected locations used to initialize the process, the number of highest-concentration locations searched around, the number of samples taken at each location, a stopping rule, and a remediation action threshold. These decision parameters are optimized by simulating the performance of each decision rule. The simulation is performed using the data collected so far to impute multiple probable values of unknown soil concentration distributions during each simulation run. This optimized adaptive spatial sampling technique has been applied to real data using error probabilities for wrongly cleaning or wrongly failing to clean each location (compared to the action that would be taken if perfect information were available) as evaluation criteria. It provides a practical approach for quantifying trade-offs between these different types of errors and expected cost. It also identifies strategies that are undominated with respect to all of these criteria.

     

Post-Divorce Transfers and the Welfare of Mothers and Children in the United States

ABSTRACT In this paper we analyze the relationship between post-divorce private transfers (child support and alimony), mothers' economic independence and children's welfare using US data. Our empirical results show that mothers who receive child support and alimony from absent fathers are more likely to work and to spend a higher proportion of the income on child-related goods. We argue that the pattern of empirical results is consistent with there being significant externalities between parents even after divorce.     

“应付职工薪酬——职工福利费”的核算方法

根据<企业会计准则第9号--职工薪酬>、<企业所得税法实施条例>等有关规定,本文介绍了职工福利费的性质、扣除标准和具体的核算方法.并针对不同情况进行举例说明.     

A Theory of Macroprudential Policies in the Presence of Nominal Rigidities

We propose a theory of monetary policy and macroprudential interventions in financial markets. We focus on economies with nominal rigidities in goods and labor markets and subject to constraints on monetary policy, such as the zero lower bound or fixed exchange rates. We identify an aggregate demand externality that can be corrected by macroprudential interventions in financial markets. Ex post, the distribution of wealth across agents affects aggregate demand and output. Ex ante, however, these effects are not internalized in private financial decisions. We provide a simple formula for the required financial interventions that depends on a small number of measurable sufficient statistics. We also characterize optimal monetary policy. We extend our framework to incorporate pecuniary externalities, providing a unified approach to both externalities. Finally, we provide a number of applications which illustrate the relevance of our theory.     

Estimation of Nonlinear Models in the Presence of Measurement Error*

Techniques used in decision sciences and business research to estimate interactions between latent variables are limited in controlling for measurement error. This article uses a latent structure modeling approach that substantially controls for measurement error in nonlinear relationships. The results of this technique are compared to the results obtained applying hierarchical regression analysis and the impact of measurement error is assessed. The paper provides a unique assessment of the validity of the multi-attribute attitude model. The validity of the multiplicative rule in the model is supported.     

The Value of Category Captainship in the Presence of Manufacturer Competition

This research investigates the value of category captainship (a management practice in which a retailer relies on a manufacturer for recommendations regarding strategic category management decisions) in retail supply chains. We consider a setting where the scope of category management is limited to assortment decisions and demand enhancing activities. We assume that the retailer selects a category captain among multiple competing manufacturers with privately known capabilities for driving category traffic. First, we consider a benchmark scenario where the retailer is responsible for category management. Then, we consider the category captainship scenario where the retailer selects one of the manufacturers as a captain to manage the category. We find that captainship is more likely to emerge in categories where the cost of managing variety, the retail margins, and the competition for captainship are moderate and the captain is more capable of driving traffic compared to the retailer. In such categories the collaboration between the retailer and the captain ensures sufficient surplus for both parties. Finally, we show that captainship can also benefit the non‐captain manufacturers.     

A Dynamic Model of Welfare Reform

A dynamic structural model of labor supply, welfare participation, and food stamp participation is estimated using the 1992, 1993, and 1996 panels of the Survey of Income and Program Participation. Details of various policies including welfare time limits, work requirements, and Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) are incorporated formally in the budget constraint. Policy simulations reveal that the economy accounts for half of the increase in the labor supply of female heads of family between 1992 and 1999. A time limit results in a larger efficiency gain than a work requirement or a direct reduction in welfare benefits. A reform package can lead to both a reduction in the government expenditure and an improvement in utility. The EITC expansion results in a substantial efficiency gain among individuals with the lowest expected wage. These individuals are almost unaffected by the economic expansion, but their income and utility increase significantly under the reform package.     

Strategic Sourcing in the Presence of Uncertain Supply and Retail Competition

This study develops an analytical model to evaluate competing retail firms' sourcing strategies in the presence of supply uncertainty. We consider a common supplier that sells its uncertain supply to two downstream retail firms engaging in price competition in a horizontally differentiated product market. The focal firm has a dual‐sourcing option, while the rival firm can only source from the common supplier. We assess the system‐wide effects of supply uncertainty on the focal firm's incentive to pursue the dual‐sourcing strategy. We find that the focal firm's dual‐sourcing strategy can create a win–win situation that leads to increased retail prices and expected profits for both firms. Furthermore, under certain conditions, we show that it is beneficial for the focal firm to strategically source from the common supplier, even if its alternative supplier offers a lower wholesale price. Overall, we identify two types of incentives for adopting the dual‐sourcing strategy: the incentive of mitigating supply risk through supplier diversification and the incentive of strategic sourcing for more effective retail competition.     

Locating Facilities in the Presence of Disruptions and Incomplete Information*

In this article, we analyze a location model where facilities may be subject to disruptions. Customers do not have advance information about whether a given facility is operational or not, and thus may have to visit several facilities before finding an operational one. The objective is to locate a set of facilities to minimize the total expected cost of customer travel. We decompose the total cost into travel, reliability, and information components. This decomposition allows us to put a value on the advance information about the states of facilities and compare it to the reliability and travel cost components, which allows a decision maker to evaluate which part of the system would benefit the most from improvements. The structure of optimal solutions is analyzed, with two interesting effects identified: facility centralization and co‐location; both effects appear to be stronger than in the complete information case, where the status of each facility is known in advance.