Fitting a multiple regression function

Consider the p-dimensional unit cube [0,1]^p, p≥1. Partition [0, 1]^p into n regions, R_1,n,…,R_n,n such that the volume Δ(R_j,n) is of order n^?1,j=1,…,n. Select and fix a point in each of these regions so that we have x⁽ⁿ⁾₁,…,x⁽ⁿ⁾_n. Suppose that associated with the j-th predictor vector x⁽ⁿ⁾_j there is an observable variable Y⁽ⁿ⁾_j, j=1,…,n, satisfying the multiple regression model $\text{Y}{}^{\mathrm{(n)}}{}_{\mathrm{j}}\text{=g(}\text{x}{}^{\mathrm{(n)}}{}_{\mathrm{j}}\text{)+e}{}^{\mathrm{(n)}}{}_{\mathrm{j}}$, where g is an unknown function defined on [0, 1]^pand {e⁽ⁿ⁾_j} are independent identically distributed random variables with Ee⁽ⁿ⁾₁=0 and Var e⁽ⁿ⁾₁=σ²<∞. This paper proposes as an estimator of g(x), where k(u) is a known p-dimensional bounded density and {a_n} is a sequence of reals converging to 0 asn→∞. Weak and strong consistency of g_n(x) and rates of convergence are obtained. Asymptoticnormality of the estimator is established. Also proposed is $\text{σ}{}^2{}_{\mathrm{n}}\text{=n}{}^{\mathrm{?1}}\text{Σ}{}^{\mathrm{n}}{}_{\mathrm{j=1}}\text{(Y}{}^{\mathrm{(n)}}{}_{\mathrm{j}}\text{?g}{}_{\mathrm{n}}\text{(}\text{x}{}^{\mathrm{(n)}}{}_{\mathrm{j}}\text{))}{}^2$ as a consistent estimate of σ².     

Simultaneous confidence bands for expectile functions

Expectile regression, as a general M smoother, is used to capture the tail behaviour of a distribution. Let (X ₁,Y ₁),…,(X _n ,Y _n ) be i.i.d. rvs. Denote by v(x) the unknown τ-expectile regression curve of Y conditional on X, and by v _n (x) its kernel smoothing estimator. In this paper, we prove the strong uniform consistency rate of v _n (x) under general conditions. Moreover, using strong approximations of the empirical process and extreme value theory, we consider the asymptotic maximal deviation sup_0≤x≤1|v _n (x)?v(x)|. According to the asymptotic theory, we construct simultaneous confidence bands around the estimated expectile function. Furthermore, we apply this confidence band to temperature analysis. Taking Berlin and Taipei as an example, we investigate the temperature risk drivers to these two cities.     

On the asymptotic expectation and variance of the number of boundary crossings

Let X₁,X₂,… be independent and identically distributed nonnegative random variables with mean μ, and let S_n = X₁ + … + X_n. For each λ > 0 and each n ≥ 1, let A_n be the interval [λn^Y, ∞), where γ > 1 is a constant. The number of times that S_n is in A_n is denoted by N. As λ tends to zero, the asymtotic behavior of N is studied. Specifically under suitable conditions, the expectation of N is shown to be (μλ^?1)^β + o(λ^?β/2 where β = 1/(γ-1) and the variance of N is shown to be (μλ^?1)^β(βμ¹)²σ² + o(λ^?β) where σ² is the variance of X_n.     

Rate of consistency of one sample tests of location

Let X₁,…,X_n be a sample from a population with continuous distribution function F(x?θ) such that F(x)+F(-x)=1 and 0<F(x)<1, x?R¹. It is shown that the power- function of a monotone test of H: θ=θ₀ against K: θ>θ₀ cannot tend to 1 as θ?θ₀ → ∞ more than n times faster than the tails of F tend to 0. Some standard as well as robust tests are considered with respect to this rate of convergence.     

Nonparametric Estimation of a Regression Function: Limiting Distribution2

Consider the regression model Y_i= g(x_i) + e_i, i = 1,…, n, where g is an unknown function defined on [0, 1], 0 = x₀ < x₁ < … < x_n≤ 1 are chosen so that max_1≤i≤n(x_i-x_{i- 1}) = 0(n^-1), and where {e_i} are i.i.d. with Ee₁= 0 and Var e₁ - s?². In a previous paper, Cheng & Lin (1979) study three estimators of g, namely, g_1n of Cheng & Lin (1979), g_2n of Clark (1977), and g_3n of Priestley & Chao (1972). Consistency results are established and rates of strong uniform convergence are obtained. In the current investigation the limiting distribution of &_in, i = 1, 2, 3, and that of the isotonic estimator g**_n are considered.     

Limiting distributions of Kolmogorov-Lévy-type statistics under the alternative

Let X_i, 1 ≤ i ≤ n, be independent identically distributed random variables with a common distribution function F, and let G be a smooth distribution function. We derive the limit distribution of □{ρ_α(F_n, G) - _α(F, G)}, where F_n is the empirical distribution function based on X₁,…,X_n and _α is a Kolmogorov-Lévy-type metric between distribution functions. For α ≤ 0 and two distribution functions F and G the metric p_α is given by p_α(F, G) = inf {? ≤ 0: G(x - α?) - ? F(x) ≤ G(x + α?) + ? for all x ?}.     

Confidence Intervals for Nonparametric Regression Functions with Missing Data

Suppose that we have a nonparametric regression model Y = m(X) + ε with X ∈ R^p, where X is a random design variable and is observed completely, and Y is the response variable and some Y-values are missing at random. Based on the “complete” data sets for Y after nonaprametric regression imputation and inverse probability weighted imputation, two estimators of the regression function m(x₀) for fixed x₀ ∈ R^p are proposed. Asymptotic normality of two estimators is established, which is used to construct normal approximation-based confidence intervals for m(x₀). We also construct an empirical likelihood (EL) statistic for m(x₀) with limiting distribution of χ²₁, which is used to construct an EL confidence interval for m(x₀).     

The uniform convergence of the nadaraya-watson regression function estimate

If (X₁,Y₁), …, (X_n,Y_n) is a sequence of independent identically distributed R_d × R-valued random vectors then Nadaraya (1964) and Watson (1964) proposed to estimate the regression function m(x) = ? {Y₁|X₁ = x{ by where K is a known density and {h_n} is a sequence of positive numbers satisfying certain properties. In this paper a variety of conditions are given for the strong convergence to 0 of ess_Xsup|m_n (X)-m(X)| (here X is independent of the data and distributed as X₁). The theorems are valid for all distributions of X₁ and for all sequences {h_n} satisfying h_n → 0 and nh/log n→0.     

Prediction based on linear combinations of order statistics and bivariate concomitants in the case of multivariate elliptical distributions

In this paper, by considering a (3n+1) -dimensional random vector (X₀, X^T, Y^T, Z^T)^T having a multivariate elliptical distribution, we derive the exact joint distribution of (X₀, a^TX_(n), b^TY_[n], c^TZ_[n])^T, where a, b, c∈?ⁿ, X_(n)=(X₍₁₎, …, X_(n))^T, X₍₁₎<···<X_(n), is the vector of order statistics arising from X, and Y_[n]=(Y_[1], …, Y_[n])^T and Z_[n]=(Z_[1], …, Z_[n])^T denote the vectors of concomitants corresponding to X_(n) ((Y_[r], Z_[r])^T, for r=1, …, n, is the vector of bivariate concomitants corresponding to X_(r)). We then present an alternate approach for the derivation of the exact joint distribution of (X₀, X_(r), Y_[r], Z_[r])^T, for r=1, …, n. We show that these joint distributions can be expressed as mixtures of four-variate unified skew-elliptical distributions and these mixture forms facilitate the prediction of X_(r), say, based on the concomitants Y_[r] and Z_[r]. Finally, we illustrate the usefulness of our results by a real data.     

Nonlinear orthogonal series estimates for random design regression

Let (X,Y) be a pair of random variables with supp(X)⊆[0,1] and EY²<∞. Let m be the corresponding regression function. Estimation of m from i.i.d. data is considered. The L₂ error with integration with respect to the design measure μ (i.e., the distribution of X) is used as an error criterion.Estimates are constructed by estimating the coefficients of an orthonormal expansion of the regression function. This orthonormal expansion is done with respect to a family of piecewise polynomials, which are orthonormal in L₂(μ_n), where μ_n denotes the empirical design measure.It is shown that the estimates are weakly and strongly consistent for every distribution of (X,Y). Furthermore, the estimates behave nearly as well as an ideal (but not applicable) estimate constructed by fitting a piecewise polynomial to the data, where the partition of the piecewise polynomial is chosen optimally for the underlying distribution. This implies e.g., that the estimates achieve up to a logarithmic factor the rate n^−2p/(2p+1), if the underlying regression function is piecewise p-smooth, although their definition depends neither on the smoothness nor on the location of the discontinuities of the regression function.     

A note on the asymptotic efficiency of the sobel–wald test

Let X₁,X₂, … be iid random variables with the pdf f(x,θ)=exp(θx?b(θ)) relative to a σ-finite measure μ, and consider the problem of deciding among three simple hypotheses H_i:θ=θ_i (1?i?3) subject to P(acceptH_i|θ_i)=1?α (1?i?3). A procedure similar to Sobel–Wald procedure is discussed and its asymptotic efficiency as compared with the best nonsequential test is obtained by finding the limit lim_a→0(E_iN(a)/n(a)), where N (a) is the stopping time of the proposed procedure and n(a) is the sample size of the best non-sequential test. It is shown that the same asymptotic limit holds for the original Sobel–Wald procedure. Specializing to N(θ,1) distribution it is found that lim_a→0$\text{(E}{}_{\mathrm{i}}\text{N(α)/n(α))=}\text{1}\text{4}$ (i=1,2) and lim_a→0 (E₃N(α)n(α))=δ²₁/4δ, where δ_i=(θ_i+1?θ_i) with 0<δ₁?δ₂. Also, the asymptotic efficiency evaluated when the X's have an exponential distribution.     

Optimal designs for approximating the path of a stochastic process

We consider a centered stochastic process {X(t):t ∈ T} with known and continuous covariance function. On the basis of observations X(t₁), …, X(t_n) we approximate the whole path by orthogonal projection and measure the performance of the chosen design d = (t₁, …, t_n)′ by the corresponding mean squared L²-distance. For covariance functions on T² = [0, 1]², which satisfy a generalized Sacks-Ylvisaker regularity condition of order zero, we construct asymptotically optimal sequences of designs. Moreover, we characterize the achievement of a lower error bound, given by Micchelli and Wahba (1981), and study the question of whether this bound can be attained.     

On the bootstrap quantile-treatment-effect test

Let {X ₁, …, X _n } and {Y ₁, …, Y _m } be two samples of independent and identically distributed observations with common continuous cumulative distribution functions F(x)=P(X≤x) and G(y)=P(Y≤y), respectively. In this article, we would like to test the no quantile treatment effect hypothesis H ₀: F=G. We develop a bootstrap quantile-treatment-effect test procedure for testing H ₀ under the location-scale shift model. Our test procedure avoids the calculation of the check function (which is non-differentiable at the origin and makes solving the quantile effects difficult in typical quantile regression analysis). The limiting null distribution of the test procedure is derived and the procedure is shown to be consistent against a broad family of alternatives. Simulation studies show that our proposed test procedure attains its type I error rate close to the pre-chosen significance level even for small sample sizes. Our test procedure is illustrated with two real data sets on the lifetimes of guinea pigs from a treatment-control experiment.     

Distributions minimizing fisher information for scale in kolmogorov neighbourhoods

We construct those distributions minimizing Fisher information for scale in Kolmogorov neighbourhoods K_?(G) = {F|sup_x|F(x) - G(x| ? ?} of d.f.'s G satisfying certain mild conditions. The theory is sufficiently general to include those cases in which G is normal, Laplace, logistic, Student's t, etc. As well, we consider G(x) = 1 - e^-x, ? 0, and correct some errors in the literature concerning this case.     

Lois limites pour les statistiques d'ordre dans le cas non identiquement distribue

Let X₁, X₂,… be a sequence of independent random variables with distribution functions F₁, where 1 ≤ i ≤ n, and for each n ≥ 1 let X_1,n ≤… ≤ X_n,n denote the order statistics of the first n random variables. Under suitable hypotheses about the F₁, we characterize the limit distribution functions H(x) for which P(X_k,n ? a_nx + b_n) → H(x), where a_n > 0 and b_n are real constants. We consider the cases where κ = κ(n) satisfies √n {κ(n)/n — λ} → 0 and √n {κ(n)/n — λ} → ∞ separately.     

Density estimation for samples satisfying a certain absolute regularity condition

Let {ξ_i} be an absolutely regular sequence of identically distributed random variables having common density function f(x). Let H_k(x,y) (k=1, 2,…) be a sequence of Borel-measurable functions and f_n(x)=n^?1(H_n(x,ξ₁)+…+H_n(x,ξ_n)) the empirical density function. In this paper, the asymptotic property of the probability P(sup_x|f_n(x)?f(x)|>ε) (n→∞) is studied.     

The number of solutions to the alternate matrix equation over a finite field and a q-identity

Let F_q be a finite field with q elements, where q is a power of a prime. In this paper, we first correct a counting error for the formula N(K_2ν,0^(m)) occurring in Carlitz (1954. Arch. Math. V, 19–31). Next, using the geometry of symplectic group over F_q, we have given the numbers of solutions X of rank k and solutions X to equation XAX′=B over F_q, where A and B are alternate matrices of order n, rank 2ν and order m, rank 2s, respectively. Finally, an elementary q-identity is obtained from N(K_2ν,0⁽⁰⁾), and the explicit results for N(K_n,2ν,K_m,2s) is represented by terminating q-hypergeometric series.     

Theory of factorial designs of the parallel flats type. I: the coefficient matrix

Let GF(s) be the finite field with s elements.(Thus, when s=3, the elements of GF(s) are 0, 1 and 2.)Let A(r×n), of rank r, and c_i(i=1,…,f), (r×1), be matrices over GF(s). (Thus, for n=4, r=2, f=2, we could have A=[¹¹¹⁰₀₁₂₁], c₁=[¹₀], c₂=[⁰₂].) Let T_i (i=1,…,f) be the flat in EG(n, s) consisting of the set of all the s^n?r solutions of the equations At=c_i, wheret′=(t₁,…,t_n) is a vector of variables.(Thus, EG(4, 3) consists of the 3⁴=81 points of the form (t₁,t₂,t₃,t₄), where t's take the values 0,1,2 (in GF(3)). The number of solutions of the equations At=c_i is s^n?r, where r=Rank(A), and the set of such solutions is said to form an (n?r)-flat, i.e. a flat of (n?r) dimensions. In our example, both T₁ and T₂ are 2-flats consisting of 3^4?2=9 points each. The flats T₁,T₂,…,T_f are said to be parallel since, clearly, no two of them can have a common point. In the example, the points of T₁ are (1000), (0011), (2022), (0102), (2110), (1121), (2201), (1212) and (0220). Also, T₂ consists of (0002), (2010), (1021), (2101), (1112), (0120), (1200), (0211) and (2222).) Let T be the fractional design for a sⁿ symmetric factorial experiment obtained by taking T₁,T₂,…,T_f together. (Thus, in the example, 3⁴=81 treatments of the 3⁴ factorial experiment correspond one-one with the points of EG(4,3), and T will be the design (i.e. a subset of the 81 treatments) consisting of the 18 points of T₁ and T₂ enumerated above.)In this paper, we lay the foundation of the general theory of such ‘parallel’ types of designs. We define certain functions of A called the alias component matrices, and use these to partition the coefficient matrix X (n×v), occuring in the corresponding linear model, into components X._j(j=0,1,…,g), such that the information matrix X is the direct sum of the X′._jX._j. Here, v is the total number of parameters, which consist of (possibly μ), and a (general) set of (geometric) factorial effects (each carrying (s?1) degrees of freedom as usual). For j≠0, we show that the spectrum of X′._jX._j does not change if we change (in a certain important way) the usual definition of the effects. Assuming that such change has been adopted, we consider the partition of the X._j into the X_ij (i=1,…,f). Furthermore, the X_ij are in turn partitioned into smaller matrices (which we shall here call the) X_ijh. We show that each X_ijh can be factored into a product of 3 matrices J, ζ (not depending on i,j, and h) and Q(j,h,i)where both the Kronecker and ordinary product are used. We introduce a ring R using the additive groups of the rational field and GF(s), and show that the Q(j,h,i) belong to a ring isomorphic to R. When s is a prime number, we show that R is the cyclotomic field. Finally, we show that the study of the X._j and X′._jX._j can be done in a much simpler manner, in terms of certain relatively small sized matrices over R.     

Bootstrap test of goodness of fit to a linear model when errors are correlated

Given the regression model Y_i = m(x_i) +ε_i (x_i ε C, i = l,…,n, C a compact set in R) where m is unknown and the random errors {ε_i} present an ARMA structure, we design a bootstrap method for testing the hypothesis that the regression function follows a general linear model: H_o : m ε {mθ(.) = A^t(.)θ : θ ε ? ? R^q} with A a functional from R to R^q. The criterion of the test derives from a Cramer-von-Mises type functional distance D = d²([mcirc]_n, A^t(.)θ_n), between [mcirc]_n, a Gasser-Miiller non-parametric estimator of m, and the member of the class defined in H_o that is closest to m_n in terms of this distance. The consistency of the bootstrap distribution of D and θ_n is obtained under general conditions. Finally, simulations show the good behavior of the bootstrap approximation with respect to the asymptotic distribution of D = d².