Optimal and efficient designs for 2-parameter nonlinear models

By Carathéodory's theorem, for a k-parameter nonlinear model, the minimum number of support points for any D-optimal design is between k and k(k+1)/2. Characterizing classes of models for which a D-optimal design sits on exactly k support points is of great theoretical interest. By utilizing the equivalence theorem, we identify classes of 2-parameter nonlinear models for which a D-optimal design is precisely supported on 2 points. We also introduce the theory of maximum principle from differential equations into the design area and obtain some results on characterizing the minimally supported nonlinear designs. Examples are given to demonstrate our results. Designs with minimum number of support points may not always be suitable in practice. To alleviate this problem, we utilize some geometric and analytical methods to obtain some efficient designs which provide more opportunity for the model checking and prevent biases due to mis-specified initial parameters.     

Adaptive grid semidefinite programming for finding optimal designs

We find optimal designs for linear models using a novel algorithm that iteratively combines a semidefinite programming (SDP) approach with adaptive grid techniques. The proposed algorithm is also adapted to find locally optimal designs for nonlinear models. The search space is first discretized, and SDP is applied to find the optimal design based on the initial grid. The points in the next grid set are points that maximize the dispersion function of the SDP-generated optimal design using nonlinear programming. The procedure is repeated until a user-specified stopping rule is reached. The proposed algorithm is broadly applicable, and we demonstrate its flexibility using (i) models with one or more variables and (ii) differentiable design criteria, such as A-, D-optimality, and non-differentiable criterion like E-optimality, including the mathematically more challenging case when the minimum eigenvalue of the information matrix of the optimal design has geometric multiplicity larger than 1. Our algorithm is computationally efficient because it is based on mathematical programming tools and so optimality is assured at each stage; it also exploits the convexity of the problems whenever possible. Using several linear and nonlinear models with one or more factors, we show the proposed algorithm can efficiently find optimal designs.     

A note on Läuter-type robust design for polynomial regression models

In this paper, we consider the problem of model robust design for simultaneous parameter estimation among a class of polynomial regression models with degree up to k. A generalized D-optimality criterion, the Ψ_α‐optimality criterion, first introduced by Läuter (1974) is considered for this problem. By applying the theory of canonical moments and the technique of maximin principle, we derive a model robust optimal design in the sense of having highest minimum Ψ_α‐efficiency. Numerical comparison indicates that the proposed design has remarkable performance for parameter estimation in all of the considered rival models.     

Optimal experimental design criterion for discriminating semiparametric models

This paper studies the optimal experimental design problem to discriminate two regression models. Recently, López-Fidalgo et al. [2007. An optimal experimental design criterion for discriminating between non-normal models. J. Roy. Statist. Soc. B 69, 231–242] extended the conventional T-optimality criterion by Atkinson and Fedorov [1975a. The designs of experiments for discriminating between two rival models. Biometrika 62, 57–70; 1975b. Optimal design: experiments for discriminating between several models. Biometrika 62, 289–303] to deal with non-normal parametric regression models, and proposed a new optimal experimental design criterion based on the Kullback–Leibler information divergence. In this paper, we extend their parametric optimality criterion to a semiparametric setup, where we only need to specify some moment conditions for the null or alternative regression model. Our criteria, called the semiparametric Kullback–Leibler optimality criteria, can be implemented by applying a convex duality result of partially finite convex programming. The proposed method is illustrated by a simple numerical example.     

Consistency of Bayesian linear model selection with a growing number of parameters

Linear models with a growing number of parameters have been widely used in modern statistics. One important problem about this kind of model is the variable selection issue. Bayesian approaches, which provide a stochastic search of informative variables, have gained popularity. In this paper, we will study the asymptotic properties related to Bayesian model selection when the model dimension p is growing with the sample size n. We consider p≤n and provide sufficient conditions under which: (1) with large probability, the posterior probability of the true model (from which samples are drawn) uniformly dominates the posterior probability of any incorrect models; and (2) the posterior probability of the true model converges to one in probability. Both (1) and (2) guarantee that the true model will be selected under a Bayesian framework. We also demonstrate several situations when (1) holds but (2) fails, which illustrates the difference between these two properties. Finally, we generalize our results to include g-priors, and provide simulation examples to illustrate the main results.     

Creating catalogues of two-level nonregular fractional factorial designs based on the criteria of generalized aberration

We consider the problem of constructing good two-level nonregular fractional factorial designs. The criteria of minimum G and G₂ aberration are used to rank designs. A general design structure is utilized to provide a solution to this practical, yet challenging, problem. With the help of this design structure, we develop an efficient algorithm for obtaining a collection of good designs based on the aforementioned two criteria. Finally, we present some results for designs of 32 and 40 runs obtained from applying this algorithmic approach.     

Using large data sets to forecast sectoral employment

We use several models using classical and Bayesian methods to forecast employment for eight sectors of the US economy. In addition to using standard vector-autoregressive and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, we also augment these models to include the information content of 143 additional monthly series in some models. Several approaches exist for incorporating information from a large number of series. We consider two multivariate approaches—extracting common factors (principal components) and Bayesian shrinkage. After extracting the common factors, we use Bayesian factor-augmented vector autoregressive and vector error-correction models, as well as Bayesian shrinkage in a large-scale Bayesian vector autoregressive models. For an in-sample period of January 1972 to December 1989 and an out-of-sample period of January 1990 to March 2010, we compare the forecast performance of the alternative models. More specifically, we perform ex-post and ex-ante out-of-sample forecasts from January 1990 through March 2009 and from April 2009 through March 2010, respectively. We find that factor augmented models, especially error-correction versions, generally prove the best in out-of-sample forecast performance, implying that in addition to macroeconomic variables, incorporating long-run relationships along with short-run dynamics play an important role in forecasting employment. Forecast combination models, however, based on the simple average forecasts of the various models used, outperform the best performing individual models for six of the eight sectoral employment series.     

Optimal designs for treatment comparisons represented by graphs

Consider an experiment for comparing a set of treatments: in each trial, one treatment is chosen and its effect determines the mean response of the trial. We examine the optimal approximate designs for the estimation of a system of treatment contrasts under this model. These designs can be used to provide optimal treatment proportions in more general models with nuisance effects. For any system of pairwise treatment comparisons, we propose to represent such a system by a graph. Then, we represent the designs by the inverses of the vertex weights in the corresponding graph and we show that the values of the eigenvalue-based optimality criteria can be expressed using the Laplacians of the vertex-weighted graphs. We provide a graph theoretic interpretation of D-, A- and E-optimality for estimating sets of pairwise comparisons. We apply the obtained graph representation to provide optimality results for these criteria as well as for ’symmetric’ systems of treatment contrasts.     

Isomorphism check in fractional factorial designs via letter interaction pattern matrix

Two fractional factorial designs are considered isomorphic if one can be obtained from the other by relabeling the factors, reordering the runs, and/or switching the levels of factors. To identify the isomorphism of two designs is known as an NP hard problem. In this paper, we propose a three-dimensional matrix named the letter interaction pattern matrix (LIPM) to characterize the information contained in the defining contrast subgroup of a regular two-level design. We first show that an LIPM could uniquely determine a design under isomorphism and then propose a set of principles to rearrange an LIPM to a standard form. In this way, we can significantly reduce the computational complexity in isomorphism check, which could only take O(2^p)+O(3k³)+O(2^k) operations to check two 2^k−p designs in the worst case. We also find a sufficient condition for two designs being isomorphic to each other, which is very simple and easy to use. In the end, we list some designs with the maximum numbers of clear or strongly clear two-factor interactions which were not found before.     

Bayesian feature selection for classification with possibly large number of classes

In what follows, we introduce two Bayesian models for feature selection in high-dimensional data, specifically designed for the purpose of classification. We use two approaches to the problem: one which discards the components which have “almost constant” values (Model 1) and another which retains the components for which variations in-between the groups are larger than those within the groups (Model 2). We assume that p?n, i.e. the number of components p is much larger than the number of samples n, and that only few of those p components are useful for subsequent classification. We show that particular cases of the above two models recover familiar variance or ANOVA-based component selection. When one has only two classes and features are a priori independent, Model 2 reduces to the Feature Annealed Independence Rule (FAIR) introduced by Fan and Fan (2008) and can be viewed as a natural generalization of FAIR to the case of L>2 classes. The performance of the methodology is studies via simulations and using a biological dataset of animal communication signals comprising 43 groups of electric signals recorded from tropical South American electric knife fishes.     

Bounding the resampling risk for sequential Monte Carlo implementation of hypothesis tests

Sequential designs can be used to save computation time in implementing Monte Carlo hypothesis tests. The motivation is to stop resampling if the early resamples provide enough information on the significance of the p-value of the original Monte Carlo test. In this paper, we consider a sequential design called the B-value design proposed by Lan and Wittes and construct the sequential design bounding the resampling risk, the probability that the accept/reject decision is different from the decision from complete enumeration. For the B-value design whose exact implementation can be done by using the algorithm proposed in Fay, Kim and Hachey, we first compare the expected resample size for different designs with comparable resampling risk. We show that the B-value design has considerable savings in expected resample size compared to a fixed resample or simple curtailed design, and comparable expected resample size to the iterative push out design of Fay and Follmann. The B-value design is more practical than the iterative push out design in that it is tractable even for small values of resampling risk, which was a challenge with the iterative push out design. We also propose an approximate B-value design that can be constructed without using a specially developed software and provides analytic insights on the choice of parameter values in constructing the exact B-value design.     

Maximin efficient design of experiment for exponential regression models

In this paper robust and efficient designs are derived for several exponential decay models. These models are widely used in chemistry, pharmacokinetics or microbiology. We propose a maximin approach, which determines the optimal design such that a minimum of the D-efficiencies (taken over a certain range) becomes maximal. Analytic solutions are derived if optimization is performed in the class of minimal supported designs. In general the optimal designs with respect to the maximin criterion have to be determined numerically and some properties of these designs are also studied. We also illustrate the benefits of our approach by reanalysing a data example from the literature.     

A transient analysis of Markov fluid models with jumps

In this paper, we consider Markov fluid models with jumps which are useful for e.g. insurance risk modeling and the performance analysis of high-speed data networks. Recently, Ahn and Ramaswami [Ahn, S. & Ramaswami, V. (2004). Transient analysis of fluid flow models via stochastic coupling to a queue. Stochastic Models, 20 (1) 71–101] provided a transient analysis of the Markov modulated fluid flow model using stochastic coupling to a queueing model. Here we extend their results and provide a transient analysis of Markov fluid models with jumps. We also present some numerical examples.     

An effective construction method for multi-level uniform designs

Uniform designs are widely used in various applications. However, it is computationally intractable to construct uniform designs, even for moderate number of runs, factors and levels. We establish a linear relationship between average squared centered L₂-discrepancy and generalized wordlength pattern, and then based on it, we propose a general method for constructing uniform designs with arbitrary number of levels. The main idea is to choose a generalized minimum aberration design and then permute its levels. We propose a novel stochastic algorithm and obtain many new uniform designs that have smaller centered L₂-discrepancies than the existing ones.     

Generalized choice models for categorical time series

The NDARMA models of Jacobs and Lewis (1983) allow the modeling of categorical processes with an ARMA-like serial dependence structure. These models can be represented through a backshift mechanism, and we analyze marginal and bivariate properties of the resulting backshift process. Motivated by this backshift mechanism, we define the new class of generalized choice (GC) models, which include the usual NDARMA models as a special case, and we derive results describing the marginal and bivariate distribution of the GC model. We discuss implications concerning DMA(∞) models and the serial dependence structure of NDARMA models. Examples show that the family of GC models allows creating sparsely parametrized models for categorical processes with different types of serial dependence structure.     

New adaptive designs for delayed response models

Adaptive designs are effective mechanisms for flexibly allocating experimental resources. In clinical trials particularly, such designs allow researchers to balance short- and long-term goals. Unfortunately, fully sequential strategies require outcomes from all previous allocations prior to the next allocation. This can prolong an experiment unduly. As a result, we seek designs for models that specifically incorporate delays.We utilize a delay model in which patients arrive according to a Poisson process and their response times are exponential. We examine three designs with an eye towards minimizing patient losses: a delayed two-armed bandit rule which is optimal for the model and objective of interest; a newly proposed hyperopic rule; and a randomized play-the-winner rule. The results show that, except when the delay rate is several orders of magnitude different than the patient arrival rate, the delayed response bandit is nearly as efficient as the immediate response bandit. The delayed hyperopic design also performs extremely well throughout the range of delays, despite the fact that the rate of delay is not one of its design parameters. The delayed randomized play-the-winner rule is far less efficient than either of the other methods.     

T-optimum designs for discrimination between two multiresponse dynamic models

Summary.  The paper is concerned with a problem of finding an optimum experimental design for discriminating between two rival multiresponse models. The criterion of optimality that we use is based on the sum of squares of deviations between the models and picks up the design points for which the divergence is maximum. An important part of our criterion is an additional vector of experimental conditions, which may affect the design. We give the necessary conditions for the design and the additional parameters of the experiment to be optimum, we present the algorithm for the numerical optimization procedure and we show the relevance of these methods to dynamic systems, especially to chemical kinetic models.     

On detecting influential data and selecting regression variables

The analysis of residuals may reveal various functional forms suitable for the regression model. In this paper, we investigate some selection criteria for selecting important regression variables. In doing so, we use statistical selection and ranking procedures. Thus, we derive an appropriate criterion to measure the influence and bias for the reduced models. We show that the reduced models are based on some noncentrality parameters which provide a measure of goodness of fit for the fitted models. In this paper, we also discuss the relationships of influence diagnostics and the statistic proposed earlier by Gupta and Huang (J. Statist. Plann. Inference 20 (1988) 155–167). We introduce a new measure for detecting influential data as an alternative to Cook's measure.     

Likelihood-based approaches for multivariate linear models under inequality constraints for incomplete data

In this paper, we consider a multivariate linear model with complete/incomplete data, where the regression coefficients are subject to a set of linear inequality restrictions. We first develop an expectation/conditional maximization (ECM) algorithm for calculating restricted maximum likelihood estimates of parameters of interest. We then establish the corresponding convergence properties for the proposed ECM algorithm. Applications to growth curve models and linear mixed models are presented. Confidence interval construction via the double-bootstrap method is provided. Some simulation studies are performed and a real example is used to illustrate the proposed methods.