后危机时代中国城镇长短期就业风险的度量与预测

后危机时代,中国经济转型对应的自然失业率攀升和外部环境不确定性引致的周期性失业波动加大将持续并存,与之对应的长短期就业风险度量与预测因此具有重要的理论与现实意义。文章基于附加预期的菲利普斯曲线与奥肯定律构建状态空间模型,并利用Kalman滤波进行参数估计,由此分离出1980～2010年中国城镇时变自然失业率和时变周期性失业率,用以对长短期就业风险分级。文章进一步分析了就业风险影响因素,并运用排序Logit、Probit模型进行城镇长短期就业风险估计与预测。结果显示,2012年和2013年中国城镇自然失业率处于4.28%～4.94%、周期性失业率处于1.27%～2.51%的概率最大。     

区域经济环境对工资性别差异的影响——基于多层模型的分析途径

本文建立了中国城镇居民工资方程的多层模型,并提出了相应的工资差异分解方法,用于分析区域经济环境对工资性别差异的影响。结果表明,在所有地区劳动力市场中,均存在明显的工资性别差异。虽然地区市场化水平的提高有助于个体工资水平的提升,但却导致工资性别差异的扩大;尽管地区失业率的上升将对个体工资获得产生不利影响,但却导致工资性别差异的缩小。市场化程度越高的地区,工资性别歧视越严重。因此,在市场化进程中,政府在努力发展教育和扩大就业的同时,应致力于实施公平的工资分配制度,将有助于缓解针对女性的工资歧视,进而有助于工资性别差异的缩小。     

中国劳动就业体制从数量型向效益型转换

实现充分就业是各国政府宏观经济管理目标之一，然而充分就业并非100％的就业。西方学者（弗里德曼等）研究表明，在充分就业条件下，仍然存在一个自然失业率，这包括因劳动力自由流动造成的摩擦失业，因产业结构调整而造成的结构型失业，机器排挤工人造成的技术型失业和自愿失业等。实际上，经济发展越富于能动性（dynamic），自然失业率越高。自然失业率的存在是市场经济条件下资源通过自由流动优化配置和技术进步的必然产物。换句话说，自然失业率是实现效益型就业目标的必然结果和必要条件。西方国家要解决的失业问题主要是有效需求不足…     

中国劳动就业体制从数量型向效益型转换

自然失业率的存在是市场经济条件下资源自由流动、实现优化配置和技术进步的必然产物。随着社会主义市场经济体制改革的深化，中国的劳动就业体制正在由“低工资、高就业”数量型体制向“高增长、高投资、低就业”效益型体制转变。这一方面反映了发展中国家走向市场化、国际化、现代化的必然趋势，另一方面将使中国面临巨大的就业压力。只有实施效益型就业战略，有效地控制人口的数量、提高人口的质量，通过产业结构高度化，资本大众化，工资增长低度化，就业观念市场化等，开拓国际国内市场，才能创造有效的就业机会     

城市房价与失业率的关联性研究

房价与失业率是社会与经济波动的主要振荡源,已引起政府部门的高度关注。而目前国内外对房价与失业率关联性的研究几乎是一片空白。基于此,本文从中国的实际情况出发,以国内房价与失业率的数据为研究依据,通过协整分析和格兰杰因果检验,对房价与失业率的关联性进行了实证分析。结果显示:房价与失业率存在关联,房价的变动对失业率会产生显著影响,且房价对失业率的短期效用为负,长期效应为正;而失业率对房价的影响微弱。为维持房价稳定和保证充分就业,政府应采取相应的政策措施。     

论工资上升对劳动者的激励与就业 --一个有别于凯恩斯就业理论的就业模型

文章认为,凯恩斯在货币工资富有刚性的假设下,通过提高价格水平、降低实际工资,解决非自愿失业问题的理论,只能在短期有效.于是提出工资上升-就业模型,即通过提高货币工资达到使劳动者感到实际工资上升、且能最大限度地激励劳动者的积极性,以提高劳动的边际产出率,增大厂商用于生产和经营的资本量.在用于生产和经营的资本数量的增加会提高厂商对劳动的需求下解决就业问题,则会长期有效.     

“宽带中国”示范城市建设对性别工资差距的影响

探究如何缩小性别工资差距,有助于扎实推进共同富裕。文章以“宽带中国”示范城市建设为准自然实验,运用双重差分模型进行实证分析,发现数字基础设施建设有助于缩小性别工资差距。经过替换模型、平行趋势检验、稳定单元处理效果检验等稳健性检验后,结论仍然成立。机制分析表明,“宽带中国”示范城市建设推动了消费互联网与工业互联网发展,而消费互联网发展与工业互联网发展提升了女性劳动力的相对收入,因而缩小了性别工资差距。异质性分析发现,“宽带中国”政策能够缩小中西部和农村地区的性别工资差距,体现出包容性增长的特征。文章的研究发现可以为在新经济形态下创造更多就业机会、提升女性劳动力地位及推进共同富裕提供一定政策参考。     

中国省际人口流动的机制研究

文章利用1990和2000年人口普查、1995年1%人口抽样调查的汇总数据,以及相关的社会经济数据,动态描述了改革开放以来中国省际人口流动的规模与地区结构的变化特征,并依据有关的人口流动理论,结合中国的实际情况,建立地区间人口迁移模型,对经济发展、市场化、失业率、空间距离、信息等要素与人口流动水平的关系进行计量分析。     

我国失业保险支出与城镇失业率关系研究——基于误差修正模型的分析

失业是市场经济条件下不可避免的社会风险。失业保险是解决失业所产生的不利因素的社会机制,对一国的社会保障和福利水平有重要的作用。本文通过建立误差修正模型,对我国失业保险支出与城镇失业率的相互关系进行研究。我国失业保险与城镇失业率之间存在着双向格兰杰因果关系,即失业保险支出的增加会导致城镇失业率的增加,城镇失业率的增加会引起失业保险支出的增加。另外,我国失业保险支出的变动对城镇失业率的影响是正激励与负激励并存。     

大学生就业保留工资影响因素的实证分析

作者针对影响即将毕业大学生保留工资的性别、户籍、技能、生活费用等因素提出假设,建立即将毕业大学生的保留工资模型,通过实证对假设进行检验。发现户籍制度和性别对保留工资的影响通过了检验,而较低的技能水平和较低的月生活费用对保留工资影响呈负相关关系。最后根据检验结果提出了相关的政策涵义。     

劳动力市场“去管制化”与“知识失业”

文章从劳动力市场"去管制化"出发,提出对中国"知识失业"现象的解释。理论模型发现,随着劳动力流动和工资"去管制化",受教育人口不断增加,与之伴随的则是"知识失业"的出现和增加。但当劳动力市场进一步"去管制化",知识失业率在增加到一定程度后开始下降。因此,"知识失业"是劳动力市场"去管制化"的结果,"知识失业"的出现在一定程度上是暂时的、阶段性的,继续推进劳动力市场改革,"知识失业"现象就会减少甚至消弭。微观数据实证分析证实,劳动力流动"去管制化"和工资"去管制化"都是2002年样本劳动力市场出现"知识失业"的原因,2009年样本劳动力流动"去管制化"仍是"知识失业"出现的重要原因,但工资"去管制化"效应不再显著。     

Wage differentials due to gender

In this paper, a longitudinal data set covering 5% of all Danish wage earners over a 9-year period is used to shed light on the observed wage differentials due to gender. A human capital model is used to isolate the effects of changes in experience, schooling and unemployment, together with other factors. The model is specified as a fixed effect model that takes into account unobserved factors such as individual skills, the tendency to have an extra job and other factors. Despite the observation from macro statistics that women have had the highest observed increases in wage rates, the models show that this increase is mainly due to an improvement in their background characteristics and that men still receive a higher return to their characteristics. The main difference between genders appears to be that female workers do not, in general, get any return to their experience. The estimates also show negative effects on the wage rate of previous spells of unemployment.Peder J. Pedersen, the labour workshop at the Aarhus School of Business and two unknown referees are thanked for valuable comments. However, only the authors are responsible for any remaining errors. The Danish Research Council of the Social Sciences has provided the necessary funding.     

中国最低工资标准制定和调整依据的实证分析

文章从企业、劳动者和政府三方利益的角度构建中国最低工资标准制定和调整影响因素的分析框架,在此基础上,运用全国287个地级市2006、2007年的数据实证分析中国最低工资标准确定的科学性问题。研究发现,中国最低工资的确定基本能够反映三方利益,是其博弈的结果,如高的失业率会导致低的最低工资水平,社会福利水平的提高有助于最低工资水平的上升,企业利润扩大、外商投资和私营经济发展可以与最低工资水平的提高同时实现。但仍存在不足和改进的空间,如赡养系数的提高抑制了最低工资水平的增长,最低工资虽然能够随劳动生产率和平均工资水平上涨,但幅度较小。     

Wage shocks,household labor supply,and income instability

Do married couples make joint labor supply decisions in response to each other’s wage shocks? The study on this question aids in understanding the link between the rising income instability and household insurance. Existing studies on household insurance either focus on consumption smoothing and take labor supply as a given, or only focus on wife’s labor responses to husband’s unemployment shocks. This article develops an intra-household insurance model that allows for insurance against permanent and transitory wage shocks from both partners. Estimation using the Survey of Income and Program Participation shows that wife increases labor supply in response to husband’s adverse wage shocks when both of them are working, and wife gets more nonlabor income when she is out of work. This intra-household insurance reduces earnings instability by about 2 to 9 %. These results suggest that joint labor supply decisions provide an extra smoothing effect on income instability.     

Growth and unemployment in an OLG economy with public pensions

This paper develops an overlapping generations model including (1) a productive externality as an engine of endogenous growth and (2) wage setting by trade unions as the cause of unemployment. Within this framework, the paper considers growth and unemployment affected by public pensions under the following two types of pension system: the proportionate pension system where only the contributors, that is, the employed, receive pensions, and the lump-sum pension system where both the employed and the unemployed receive pensions. It is shown that public pensions create a trade-off between growth and employment in the former system, whereas they produce no trade-off in the latter.     

Wage and (un-)employment effects of an ageing workforce

Given the empirical fact that workers of different ages are not perfect substitutes in production, this paper explores how change in the age pattern affects wages and (un)employment. We develop a general equilibrium model where wages for young and old workers are set by monopoly unions. Contrary to the common wisdom on this topic, we show that an increase in the relative number of older workers has no effect on young and old unemployment. If, however, unions attach a higher weight to the wishes of the old, the unemployment rate of the old (young) will increase (decrease). In this case, we observe a redistribution of wage income from the young to the old.     

Work and pay in flexible and regulated labor markets: A generalized perspective on institutional evolution and inequality trends in Europe and the U.S.

In recent years a “unified theory” has emerged out of labor economics, which argues that a combination of “macroeconomic shocks” and flexible labor market institutions in the U.S. has produced strong upward trends in wage inequality, while these same shocks have produced high unemployment and low employment growth in Europe as a side effect of the wage stability preserved by that continent's rigid labor market institutions. This paper takes issue with the common view that inequality trends are best explained by a model of stable institutions interacting with changing macroeconomic forces. It argues that European institutions in fact have changed, and that institutional changes which were triggered by the broader macroeconomic forces have affected the form as well as the size of inequality trends. While the U.S. has experienced rising strong skill-based wage inequality, institutional change in France has produced an upward trend in the density of insecure jobs and an increased concentration of low-skill workers in insecure jobs. These results challenge the view that low employment rates is the sole mechanism through which European labor markets have absorbed asymmetric shocks to their demand for labor.     

A cost-benefit model of rural to urban migration in Taiwan

Abstract Migration is a form of human behaviour which has lent itself to careful measurement for a relatively long period of time. In 1885 Ravenstein set forth certain empirical laws concerning the relationship of migration to age and distance which have held up to the present. Since then an abundance of migration data has enabled social scientists to develop more precise models relating the volume or rate of migration to characteristics of the migrants or of the areas of origin and destination. Prominent among these models are the gravity model, the intervening opportunities model, a gravity type model including wage rates and unemployment rates developed by Lowry, and the Cornell mobility model.     

The elasticity of labor demand and the minimum wage

We show that, contrary to widespread belief, low-pay workers do not generally prefer that the minimum wage rate be increased until the labor demand is unitary elastic. Rather, there exists a critical value of elasticity of labor demand so that increases in the minimum wage rate make low-pay workers better off for higher elasticities, but worse off for lower elasticities. This critical value decreases with unemployment benefits and increases with workers’ risk aversion. We also show that in some countries the benefits for long-term unemployed are so low that workers would probably prefer that the minimum wage rate be decreased. I thank the anonymous referees for helpful suggestions.