The Consumer as Forecaster

Consumer confidence, particularly consumer expectations forthe short-term future, has proven to be a leading economic indicator.Over the past 15 years it has foretold all major business cyclessignaling both the contraction and recovery phases. The buyingplans component of the survey program, however, has not demonstrateda consistently convincing forecasting capacity.     

Managed care for Medicare: some considerations in designing effective information provision programs

Consumer information-processing theory provides a useful framework for policy makers concerned with regulating information provided by managed care organizations. The assumption that consumers are rational information processors and providing more information is better is questioned in this paper. Consumer research demonstrates that when faced with an uncertain decision, consumers adopt simplifying strategies leading to sub-optimal choices. A discussion on how consumers process risk information and the effects of various informational formats on decision outcomes is provided. Categorization theory is used to propose guidelines with regard to providing effective information to consumers choosing among competing managed care plans. Public policy implications borne out of consumer information-processing theory conclude the article.     

The Great Recession and risk for child abuse and neglect

This paper examines the association between the Great Recession and four measures of the risk for maternal child abuse and neglect: (1) maternal physical aggression; (2) maternal psychological aggression; (3) physical neglect by mothers; and (4) supervisory/exposure neglect by mothers. It draws on rich longitudinal data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, a longitudinal birth cohort study of families in 20 U.S. cities (N = 3177; 50% African American, 25% Hispanic; 22% non-Hispanic white; 3% other). The study collected information for the 9-year follow-up survey before, during, and after the Great Recession (2007–2010). Interview dates were linked to two macroeconomic measures of the Great Recession: the national Consumer Sentiment Index and the local unemployment rate. Also included are a wide range of socio-demographic controls, as well as city fixed effects and controls for prior parenting. Results indicate that the Great Recession was associated with increased risk of child abuse but decreased risk of child neglect. Households with social fathers present may have been particularly adversely affected. Results also indicate that economic uncertainty during the Great Recession, as measured by the Consumer Sentiment Index and the unemployment rate, had direct effects on the risk of abuse or neglect, which were not mediated by individual-level measures of economic hardship or poor mental health.     

The development of a CAHPS instrument for Nursing Home Residents (NHCAHPS)

We report on a federal initiative to develop a CAHPS (The Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems) survey to measure residents' experiences with quality-of-care and quality-of-life in nursing homes (known as NHCAHPS). We focus on how we created and tested questions for inclusion in the instrument and tested a possible cognitive screener to determine which residents could participate in a NHCAHPS interview. The major lessons learned were: (1) In contrast to other CAHPS surveys, ratings were more useful than reports because of the difficulty that residents had with summarizing over time and people; (2) consistent with other CAHPS surveys, the 0 to 10 response scale appeared to work well with nursing home residents for many of the quality-of-care questions; however, a different response scale was needed for many of the quality-of-life items; and (3) in contrast with typical survey methodology and other CAHPS surveys where explicit time reference periods are used, a non-specific present reference period in questions seemed to work best.     

The index of consumer sentiment: Predictability and predictive power in the EEC

This paper investigates the mutual predictability between the Index of Consumer Sentiment and non-attitudinal economic indicator using linear regressions on aggregate time-series data for several EEC member countries. In the first part the ICS is regressed on economic indicators to show that a sizeable part of the fluctuations in the ICS are captured by the economic series. In a second part, new passenger automobile registrations are regressed on the ICS and on economic indicators to show that the ICS is al most a marginal determinant of consumer spending on new passenger cars. The general conclusions derived from the study strengthen the findings from previous studies which are sceptical about the usefulness of the ICS in the explanation and forecasting of discretionary consumer spending.     

Patterns of Spending Behavior and the Relative Position in the Income Distribution: Some Empirical Evidence

A model integrating the permanent income and relative income hypotheses was employed to explain consumer expenditure behavior in the U.S. The model was empirically tested using data from the interview survey portion of the 1996 and 1997 Consumer Expenditure Survey. The results indicate that household expenditure behavior is generally explained by both hypotheses when integrated in one model.     

The Four Es of Problem Gambling: A Psychological Measure of Risk

A focus group of Reno area Gamblers Anonymous members identified four psychological traits contributing to risk for problem gambling, including: Escape, Esteem, Excess and Excitement. A panel of four experts authored 240 Likert-type items to measure these traits. By design, none of the items explicitly referred to gambling activities. Study 1 narrowed the field of useful items by employing a quasi-experimental design which compared the answers of Reno area Gamblers Anonymous members (N = 39) to a control sample (N = 34). Study 2 submitted successful items, plus new items authored with the knowledge gained from Study 1, to validation in a random sample telephone survey across Queensland, Australia (N=2577). The final 40 item Four Es scale (4Es) was reliable (α=.90); predicted gambling problems as measured by the Canadian Problem Gambling Index of Severity (PGSI, Ferris & Wynne (2001). The Canadian Problem Gambling Index: Final Report: Canadian Centre on Substance Abuse); and distinguished problem gamblers from persons with alcohol abuse problems. The new scale can provide a basis for further study in harm minimization, treatment, and theory development.     

FOCUSING THE SEARCH FOR GIFFEN BEHAVIOR

A recent paper by Otis Gilley and Gordon Karels showed that Giffen behavior can result from a rationing constraint which provides a second, lower bound to consumption. This model provides a far wider set of possibilities for uncovering Giffen behavior empirically than simply among the poor with limited consumption choices among a few staple items. Giffen behavior of this type can equally well result from the interaction of two binding upper constraints to the consumer's choice set. This is demonstrated with a consumer who experiences local satiation, the antithesis of the usual setting where Giffen goods are thought possible.     

Training consumers to collect data in mental health service system evaluation research

Consumer satisfaction with services is an outcome measure. This report describes The Consumer Satisfaction Research Associate Training Program, which was designed for the education and supervision of recovered consumers who collected data during four studies at three psychiatric hospitals. The educational program had didactic and laboratory components. Consumer research associates collected quantitative and qualitative data using a survey tool for face-to-face interviews. Participant recruitment and management of confidential records were included in the role. Data collected by research associates from consumers who are in treatment can enhance the validity and trustworthiness of satisfaction surveys. Nurses can play an important role in the research process by serving as staff resources for consumers who collect data in various service system settings.     

Monitoring antitobacco sentiment among community leaders

Two public health objectives, one methodological and the other substantive, are realized in the present study. First, average survey ratings are replaced by negated mean cumulative logits (MCLs), which have the advantage of interitem commensuration. Second, these negated MCLs improve the analysis of two Florida tobacco control surveys of community leaders. Because of their common logit metric, negated MCLs for different item types are compared on their expressed antitobacco sentiment. They are also averaged to construct a precise indicator of overall sentiment. These results show that in 1998 and 1999, community leaders were most averse to selling to minors, kids buying cigarettes, and restaurant and workplace smoking. The latter aversion anticipated voters' overwhelming support of the 2002 Florida constitutional amendment prohibiting smoking in restaurants and workplaces. The authors hope that this analysis for antitobacco programs will improve other substance-abuse monitoring with surveys whose items are yet unwritten.     

Cross-national measurement of school learning environments: Creating indicators for evaluating UNICEF's Child Friendly Schools Initiative

The present study examines the psychometric properties of a student-reported measure of school quality, the CFS Conditions for Learning Survey, to examine its utility as a cross-national comparative measure to evaluate UNICEF's Child Friendly Schools initiative. Factor analyses conducted on data from fifth- and sixth- grade students in 68 schools across the Philippines, Nicaragua, and South Africa revealed a core set of items that loaded highly onto each of the three dimensions of the CFS Conditions for Learning survey across all three countries. Formal tests established measurement invariance for a subset of these items, indicating that they were free from methodological bias across countries. However, meaningful differences in the country-specific structure and substantive interpretation of school quality were also detected. The results suggest that items in the CFS Conditions for Learning survey can be used to create both reliable cross-national and country-specific indicators of school quality and provide a blueprint for future psychometric work in the field of comparative child and family policy.     

A Comparison of Household Budget Allocation Patterns Between Hispanic Americans and Non-Hispanic White Americans

The budget allocation patterns of Hispanic versus non-Hispanic White households are examined. Annual household expenditure data from 1980 to 1992 are constructed from the interview component of the Consumer Expenditure Survey (1980–1992), the Consumer Price Index (1980–1992), and the American Chamber of Commerce Researchers Association (ACCRA) Cost of Living Index (1990). The sample includes 588 Hispanic and 8,444 non-Hispanic White households. A Linear Approximation of the Almost Ideal Demand System with 23 demographic variables is estimated. Findings show that holding other things equal, compared to non-Hispanic White households, Hispanic households allocate significantly more of their budget to food at home, shelter, and apparel and significantly less to food away from home, entertainment, education, health care, and tobacco.     

Organizational Commitment in a Health NGO in Pakistan

The non-NGO literature provides evidence that employees?? perceptions about their organization??s support to them influences their commitment to the organization. NGOs, which have an increasing presence in developing countries, have not been a target for this type of organizational research. This cross-sectional study, based in a health NGO in Pakistan, examined relationship between employees?? perceived organizational support (POS) and their organizational commitment, and relationship between perceptions about organizational fairness, supervisor support, and job conditions with POS. The current organizational commitment literature guided the design of the survey tool. Focus group discussions were carried out at another health NGO to identify NGO and developing country specific items for inclusion in the survey tool. A total of 249 employees participated in the study, yielding a response rate of 96%. Factor analysis of the survey items indicated that the current scales used for measuring the study variables in the non-NGO sector were valid for the NGO sector as well. In addition, three new variables, namely female supportiveness, personal supportiveness, and favorableness of work conditions were assessed. Findings revealed that POS was significantly related with organizational commitment and actions, such as organizational fairness, supervisor support, and extrinsically satisfying job conditions. Female and personal supportiveness, which are generally ignored in developing countries on the pretext of limited resources and lack of organizational capacity to address them, were also found to be important in influencing POS.     

A global disability indicator

Disability is difficulty performing roles and activities due to health problems. It is largely experienced by older persons as they accumulate progressive chronic conditions. To measure functional status of individuals and populations, contemporary surveys include sets of detailed items about disability. Little effort has gone into developing global indicators of disability that cover the concept briefly but well. A global disability indicator is a compact and inexpensive device for public health surveillance and scientific study of disablement. I present and critique items that have been used in North American surveys. Good candidates are selected for methodological study. Both laboratory-based cognitive studies and large-scale statistical studies are recommended; the first will reveal meanings of items and responses and the second, items' systematic structure and prediction ability. The ultimate goal is to identify one or a few fine indicators for widespread inclusion in population health surveys.     

Towards an assessment for organizational participatory research health partnerships: A systematic mixed studies review with framework synthesis

Within the health sciences, organizational participatory research (OPR) is defined as a blend of research and action, in which academic researchers partner with health organization members. OPR is based on a sound partnership between all stakeholders to improve organizational practices. However, little research on the evaluation of OPR health partnership exists. This systematic mixed studies review sought to produce a new theoretical model that structures the evaluation of the OPR processes and related outcomes of OPR health partnerships. Six bibliographic databases were searched together with grey literature sources for OPR health partnership evaluation questionnaires. Six questionnaires were included, from which a pool of 95 OPR health partnership evaluation items were derived. The included questionnaires were appraised for the quality of their origin, development and measurement properties. A framework synthesis was performed using an existing OPR framework by organizing questionnaire items in a matrix using a hybrid thematic analysis. This led to our proposed Organizational Participatory Research Evaluation Model (OPREM) that includes three axes, Trust, Collective Learning and Sustainability (with specific dimensions) and 95 items. This model provides information to help stakeholders comprehensively structure the evaluation of their partnerships and subsequent improvement; thus, potentially helping to improve health organization practices.     

SOGS and CGPI: Parallel Comparison on a Diverse Population

The Northern Territory of Australia, one of the most demographically and socially diverse jurisdictions in the country, conducted its first population-based gambling and problem gambling prevalence survey in 2005. Both the South Oaks Gambling Screen (SOGS) and the Canadian Problem Gambling Index (CPGI) were administered to the same sample of respondents. Using data from this survey, the current paper presents a parallel comparison of the respective screens with particular reference to gender, region, and the socio-demographic characteristics of respondents. The respective screens produced significantly different groups of problem gamblers as measured by their association with a range of socio-demographic variables. Specifically, the large number of SOGS items related to money issues may cause selective overrepresentation among low socioeconomic groups, including Indigenous people, who exist in relatively high proportions in the Northern Territory. In addition, there existed substantial gender-based differences within screens. Identified female problem gamblers were associated with household level variables (i.e. employment status, household type and marital status), while males were associated with socio-economic variables including language, education, and income. Further research is required to validate the use of problem gambling screens within the Indigenous population and to understand the role of gender in the experience and categorisation of problem gambling.     

The Dimensions of Subjective Well-Being Among Black Americans:

This study examined the factorial structure of subjective well-being (SWB) among black Americans. A multiple indicator structural equation model that includes 17 items (observed indicators) and four first-order factors was proposed to account for the dimensionality of subjective well-being encompassing strain, life satisfaction, self-esteem and self-efficacy. Data for the research came from the 1980 National Survey of Black Americans. Analysis of covariance structures, or LISREL, was used to evaluate three alternative measurement models of subjective well-being. The findings revealed that the four factor model was not supported and consistently replicated across two randomly divided subsamples. The results suggest that subjective well-being among black Americans tends to be multidimensional. Implications of the results for future are discussed.     

Relative status and interdependent effects in consumer behavior

The current consumer culture, which associates the meaning of life primarily through the consumption of material goods and services, has brought many transformations in U.S. society. The purpose of this study is to examine the relative status and interdependent effects associated with consumer behavior, as developed by economists Veblen, Duesenberry, Frank, and Schor. Using the 2005 Consumer Expenditure Survey, several linear regression models have been conducted on four expenditure items including clothing, entertainment, home furnishings, and automobiles. While controlling for several demographic variables, a consumer's relative expenditure ranking emerges as the strongest substantive factor in determining clothing consumption and number of automobiles owned.     

General union attitude: A construct validation

Attitude toward labor unions has become an important variable in many areas of industrial relations research. Unfortunately, measures of general union attitude abound, making it difficult to compare results, and there has been little attempt to examine their construct validity. The present study tested the construct validity of the two most popular scales as well as an instrument developed by the author. The results indicate that the author’s General Union A ttitude scale and Getman et al. ’s (1976) Union Attitude Index are good measures of attitude toward labor unions. Although a popular measure, Uphoff and Dunnette’s (1956) Unionism in General scale was less satisfactory because of its lack of unidimensionality. Some items in the scale represented the power of unions rather than their value.