Sequential Two-stage D-optimality Sensitivity Test for Binary Response Data

In order to efficiently extract information about an underlying population based on binary response data (e.g., dead or alive, explode or unexplode), we propose a two-stage D-optimality sensitivity test, which consists of two parts. The first part is a two-stage uniform design used to generate an overlap quickly; the second part conducts the locally D-optimal augmentations to determine optimal follow-up design points. Simulations indicate that the proposed method outperforms the Langlie, Neyer and Dror and Steinberg methods in terms of probability of achieving an overlap and estimation precision. Moreover, the superiority of the proposed method are confirmed by two real applications.     

A Bayesian algorithm for sample size determination for equivalence and non-inferiority test

Bayesian sample size estimation for equivalence and non-inferiority tests for diagnostic methods is considered. The goal of the study is to test whether a new screening test of interest is equivalent to, or not inferior to the reference test, which may or may not be a gold standard. Sample sizes are chosen by the model performance criteria of average posterior variance, length and coverage probability. In the absence of a gold standard, sample sizes are evaluated by the ratio of marginal probabilities of the two screening tests; whereas in the presence of gold standard, sample sizes are evaluated by the measures of sensitivity and specificity.     

PERMUTATION TESTS AND OTHER TEST STATISTICS FOR ILL-BEHAVED DATA: EXPERIENCE OF THE NINDS t-PA STROKE TRIAL

Permutation tests are often used to analyze data since they may not require one to make assumptions regarding the form of the distribution to have a random and independent sample selection. We initially considered a permutation test to assess the treatment effect on computed tomography lesion volume in the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke (NINDS) t-PA Stroke Trial, which has highly skewed data. However, we encountered difficulties in summarizing the permutation test results on the lesion volume. In this paper, we discuss some aspects of permutation tests and illustrate our findings. This experience with the NINDS t-PA Stroke Trial data emphasizes that permutation tests are useful for clinical trials and can be used to validate assumptions of an observed test statistic. The permutation test places fewer restrictions on the underlying distribution but is not always distribution-free or an exact test, especially for ill-behaved data. Quasi-likelihood estimation using the generalized estimating equation (GEE) approach on transformed data seems to be a good choice for analyzing CT lesion data, based on both its corresponding permutation test and its clinical interpretation.     

Asymptotic hypothesis test to compare likelihood ratios of multiple diagnostic tests in unpaired designs

The accuracy of a binary diagnostic test is usually measured in terms of its sensitivity and its specificity. Other measures of the performance of a diagnostic test are the positive and negative likelihood ratios, which quantify the increase in knowledge about the presence of the disease through the application of a diagnostic test, and which depend on the sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic test. In this article, we construct an asymptotic hypothesis test to simultaneously compare the positive and negative likelihood ratios of two or more diagnostic tests in unpaired designs. The hypothesis test is based on the logarithmic transformation of the likelihood ratios and on the chi-square distribution. Simulation experiments have been carried out to study the type I error and the power of the constructed hypothesis test when comparing two and three binary diagnostic tests. The method has been extended to the case of multiple multi-level diagnostic tests.     

Simplified Likelihood Based Goodness-of-fit Tests for the Weibull Distribution

The aim of this paper is to present new likelihood based goodness-of-fit tests for the two-parameter Weibull distribution. These tests consist in nesting the Weibull distribution in three-parameter generalized Weibull families and testing the value of the third parameter by using the Wald, score, and likelihood ratio procedures. We simplify the usual likelihood based tests by getting rid of the nuisance parameters, using three estimation methods. The proposed tests are not asymptotic. A comprehensive comparison study is presented. Among a large range of possible GOF tests, the best ones are identified. The results depend strongly on the shape of the underlying hazard rate.     

Reliability of global sensitivity indices

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis is an essential ingredient of model development and applications. For many uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques, sensitivity indices are calculated based on a relatively large sample to measure the importance of parameters in their contributions to uncertainties in model outputs. To statistically compare their importance, it is necessary that uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques provide standard errors of estimated sensitivity indices. In this paper, a delta method is used to analytically approximate standard errors of estimated sensitivity indices for a popular sensitivity analysis method, the Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (FAST). Standard errors estimated based on the delta method were compared with those estimated based on 20 sample replicates. We found that the delta method can provide a good approximation for the standard errors of both first-order and higher-order sensitivity indices. Finally, based on the standard error approximation, we also proposed a method to determine a minimum sample size to achieve the desired estimation precision for a specified sensitivity index. The standard error estimation method presented in this paper can make the FAST analysis computationally much more efficient for complex models.     

A powerful test for Balaam's design

The crossover trial design (AB/BA design) is often used to compare the effects of two treatments in medical science because it performs within‐subject comparisons, which increase the precision of a treatment effect (i.e., a between‐treatment difference). However, the AB/BA design cannot be applied in the presence of carryover effects and/or treatments‐by‐period interaction. In such cases, Balaam's design is a more suitable choice. Unlike the AB/BA design, Balaam's design inflates the variance of an estimate of the treatment effect, thereby reducing the statistical power of tests. This is a serious drawback of the design. Although the variance of parameter estimators in Balaam's design has been extensively studied, the estimators of the treatment effect to improve the inference have received little attention. If the estimate of the treatment effect is obtained by solving the mixed model equations, the AA and BB sequences are excluded from the estimation process. In this study, we develop a new estimator of the treatment effect and a new test statistic using the estimator. The aim is to improve the statistical inference in Balaam's design. Simulation studies indicate that the type I error of the proposed test is well controlled, and that the test is more powerful and has more suitable characteristics than other existing tests when interactions are substantial. The proposed test is also applied to analyze a real dataset. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Data Driven Rank Test for Two-Sample Problem

Traditional linear rank tests are known to possess low power for large spectrum of alternatives. In this paper we introduce a new rank test possessing a considerably larger range of sensitivity than linear rank tests. The new test statistic is a sum of squares of some linear rank statistics while the number of summands is chosen via a data-based selection rule. Simulations show that the new test possesses high and stable power in situations when linear rank tests completely break down, while simultaneously it has almost the same power under alternatives which can be detected by standard linear rank tests. Our approach is illustrated by some practical examples. Theoretical support is given by deriving asymptotic null distribution of the test statistic and proving consistency of the new test under essentially any alternative.     

Randomization tests for small samples: an application for genetic expression data

Summary. An advantage of randomization tests for small samples is that an exact P -value can be computed under an additive model. A disadvantage with very small sample sizes is that the resulting discrete distribution for P -values can make it mathematically impossible for a P -value to attain a particular degree of significance. We investigate a distribution of P -values that arises when several thousand randomization tests are conducted simultaneously using small samples, a situation that arises with microarray gene expression data. We show that the distribution yields valuable information regarding groups of genes that are differentially expressed between two groups: a treatment group and a control group. This distribution helps to categorize genes with varying degrees of overlap of genetic expression values between the two groups, and it helps to quantify the degree of overlap by using the P -value from a randomization test. Moreover, a statistical test is available that compares the actual distribution of P -values with an expected distribution if there are no genes that are differentially expressed. We demonstrate the method and illustrate the results by using a microarray data set involving a cell line for rheumatoid arthritis. A small simulation study evaluates the effect that correlated gene expression levels could have on results from the analysis.     

A nonparametric test of symmetry based on the overlapping coefficient

In this paper, we introduce a new nonparametric test of symmetry based on the empirical overlap coefficient using kernel density estimation. Our investigation reveals that the new test is more powerful than the runs test of symmetry proposed by McWilliams [31]. Intensive simulation is conducted to examine the power of the proposed test. Data from a level I Trauma center are used to illustrate the procedures developed in this paper.     

Adaptive tests of regression functions via multiscale generalized likelihood ratios

Many applications of nonparametric tests based on curve estimation involve selecting a smoothing parameter. The author proposes an adaptive test that combines several generalized likelihood ratio tests in order to get power performance nearly equal to whichever of the component tests is best. She derives the asymptotic joint distribution of the component tests and that of the proposed test under the null hypothesis. She also develops a simple method of selecting the smoothing parameters for the proposed test and presents two approximate methods for obtaining its P‐value. Finally, she evaluates the proposed test through simulations and illustrates its application to a set of real data.     

Inference on cointegrating ranks using lr and lm tests based on pseudo-likelihoods

This paper considers Lagrange Multiplier (LM) and Likelihood Ratio (LR) tests for determining the cointegrating rank of a vector autoregressive system. n order to deal with outliers and possible fat-tailedness of the error process, non-Gaussian likelihoods are used to carry out the estimation. The limiting distributions of the tests based on these non-Gaussian pseudo-)likelihoods are derived. These distributions depend on nuisance parameters. An operational procedure is proposed to perform inference. It appears that the tests based on non-Gaussian pseudo-likelihoods are much more powerful than their Gaussian counterparts if the errors are fat-tailed. Moreover, the operational LM-type test has a better overall performance than the LR-type test. Copyright O 1998 by Marcel Dekker, Inc.     

A Class of Permutation Tests for the Equality of Two Marginal Survival Functions Using Paired Censored Data

We studied several test statistics for testing the equality of marginal survival functions of paired censored data. The null distribution of the test statistics was approximated by permutation. These tests do not require explicit modeling or estimation of the within-pair correlation, accommodate both paired data and singletons, and the computation is straightforward with most statistical software. Numerical studies showed that these tests have competitive size and power performance. One test statistic has higher power than previously published test statistics when the two survival functions under comparison cross. We illustrate use of these tests in a propensity score matched dataset.     

A powerful and interpretable alternative to the Jarque–Bera test of normality based on 2nd-power skewness and kurtosis,using the Rao's score test on the APD family

We introduce the 2nd-power skewness and kurtosis, which are interesting alternatives to the classical Pearson's skewness and kurtosis, called 3rd-power skewness and 4th-power kurtosis in our terminology. We use the sample 2nd-power skewness and kurtosis to build a powerful test of normality. This test can also be derived as Rao's score test on the asymmetric power distribution, which combines the large range of exponential tail behavior provided by the exponential power distribution family with various levels of asymmetry. We find that our test statistic is asymptotically chi-squared distributed. We also propose a modified test statistic, for which we show numerically that the distribution can be approximated for finite sample sizes with very high precision by a chi-square. Similarly, we propose a directional test based on sample 2nd-power kurtosis only, for the situations where the true distribution is known to be symmetric. Our tests are very similar in spirit to the famous Jarque–Bera test, and as such are also locally optimal. They offer the same nice interpretation, with in addition the gold standard power of the regression and correlation tests. An extensive empirical power analysis is performed, which shows that our tests are among the most powerful normality tests. Our test is implemented in an R package called PoweR.     

Comments on specification of household expenditure functions and equivalence scales by nonparametric regression

This paper considers Lagrange Multiplier (LM) and Likelihood Ratio (LR) tests for determining the cointegrating rank of a vector autoregressive system. n order to deal with outliers and possible fat-tailedness of the error process, non-Gaussian likelihoods are used to carry out the estimation. The limiting distributions of the tests based on these non-Gaussian pseudo-)likelihoods are derived. These distributions depend on nuisance parameters. An operational procedure is proposed to perform inference. It appears that the tests based on non-Gaussian pseudo-likelihoods are much more powerful than their Gaussian counterparts if the errors are fat-tailed. Moreover, the operational LM-type test has a better overall performance than the LR-type test. Copyright O 1998 by Marcel Dekker, Inc.     

Planning of progressive group-censoring life tests with cost considerations

This paper considers a life test under progressive type I group censoring with a Weibull failure time distribution. The maximum likelihood method is used to derive the estimators of the parameters of the failure time distribution. In practice, several variables, such as the number of test units, the number of inspections, and the length of inspection interval are related to the precision of estimation and the cost of experiment. An inappropriate setting of these decision variables not only wastes the resources of the experiment but also reduces the precision of estimation. One problem arising from designing a life test is the restricted budget of experiment. Therefore, under the constraint that the total cost of experiment does not exceed a pre-determined budget, this paper provides an algorithm to solve the optimal decision variables by considering three different criteria. An example is discussed to illustrate the proposed method. The sensitivity analysis is also studied.     

The modified permutation entropy-based independence test of time series

Abstract

In time series, it is essential to check the independence of data by means of a proper method or an appropriate statistical test before any further analysis. Therefore, among different independence tests, a powerful and productive test has been introduced by Matilla-García and Marín via m-dimensional vectorial process, in which the value of the process at time t includes m-histories of the primary process. However, this method causes a dependency for the vectors even when the independence assumption of random variables is considered. Considering this dependency, a modified test is obtained in this article through presenting a new asymptotic distribution based on weighted chi-square random variables. Also, some other alterations to the test have been made via bootstrap method and by controlling the overlap. Compared with the primary test, it is obtained that not only the modified test is more accurate but also, it possesses higher power.     

Tests for compound periodicities and estimating a non linear function

We propose two tests for testing compound periodicities which are the uniformly most powerful invariant decision procedures against simple periodicities. The second test can provide an excellent estimation of a compound periodic non linear function from observed data. These tests were compared with the tests proposed by Fisher and Siegel by Monte Carlo studies and we found that all the tests showed high power and high probability of a correct decision when all the amplitudes of underlying periods were the same. However, if there are at least several different periods with unequal amplitudes, then the second test proposed always showed high power and high probability of a correct decision, whereas the tests proposed by Fisher and Siegel gave 0 for the power and 0 for the probability of a correct decision, whatever the standard deviation of pseudo normal random numbers. Overall, the second test proposed is the best of all in view of the probability of a correct decision and power.     

Using Auxiliary Time-Dependent Covariates to Recover Information in Nonparametric Testing with Censored Data

Murrayand Tsiatis (1996) described a weighted survival estimate thatincorporates prognostic time-dependent covariate informationto increase the efficiency of estimation. We propose a test statisticbased on the statistic of Pepe and Fleming (1989, 1991) thatincorporates these weighted survival estimates. As in Pepe andFleming, the test is an integrated weighted difference of twoestimated survival curves. This test has been shown to be effectiveat detecting survival differences in crossing hazards settingswhere the logrank test performs poorly. This method uses stratifiedlongitudinal covariate information to get more precise estimatesof the underlying survival curves when there is censored informationand this leads to more powerful tests. Another important featureof the test is that it remains valid when informative censoringis captured by the incorporated covariate. In this case, thePepe-Fleming statistic is known to be biased and should not beused. These methods could be useful in clinical trials with heavycensoring that include collection over time of covariates, suchas laboratory measurements, that are prognostic of subsequentsurvival or capture information related to censoring.     

The performance of tests when observations have different variances

It is common to test if there is an effect due to a treatment. The commonly used tests have the assumption that the observations differ in location, and that their variances are the same over the groups. Different variances can arise if the observations being analyzed are means of different numbers of observations on individuals or slopes of growth curves with missing data. This study is concerned with cases in which the unequal variances are known, or known to a constant of proportionality. It examines the performance of the ttest, the Mann–Whitney–Wilcoxon Rank Sum test, the Median test, and the Van der Waerden test under these conditions. The t-test based on the weighted means is the likelihood ratio test under normality and has the usual optimality properties. The other tests are compared to it. One may align and scale the observations by subtracting the mean and dividing by the standard deviation of each point. This leads to other, analogous test statistics based on these adjusted observations. These statistics are also compared. Finally, the regression scores tests are compared to the other procedures.