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1.
Social security policy with public debt in an aging economy 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Tetsuo Ono 《Journal of population economics》2003,16(2):363-387
This paper analyzes a social security policy with public debt in an overlapping generations growth model. In particular,
the paper considers a situation in which population aging causes a heavy burden of social security payments where public debt
is issued by the government to finance the payment. In the model presented below, an economy with an aging population may
achieve two dynamically inefficient equilibria. Under certain conditions, the effects of pension reform and population aging
on capital accumulation are entirely different between the two equilibria.
Received: 23 July 2001/Accepted: 22 August 2002
I am deeply grateful to an anonymous referee and Professor A. Cigno, the Editor of this journal, for their valuable comments
and suggestions. I am also grateful to Kazuyo Tanimoto and Kiheiji Nishida for their research assistance. Any remaining errors
are my own. The research reported here was conducted as part of a larger study, the “Project on Intergenerational Equity”
at the Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. Financial support from Kani Hoken Bunka Zaidan is also gratefully
acknowledged. Responsible editor: Alessandro Cigno. 相似文献
2.
Hans Fehr Wenche Irén Sterkeby Øystein Thøgersen 《Journal of population economics》2003,16(2):345-361
Many reform proposals of the social security systems in various OECD economies suggest to scale down the non-actuarial parts
of the pension systems. These reforms have a flavor of increased efficiency at the costs of welfare losses for low-income
individuals. Assessing the economic effects, we investigate five different reform proposals by means of a numerical overlapping
generations model for the Norwegian economy. The model features an endogenous retirement age and heterogeneous individuals
within generations. It turns out that the various reforms, which scale down the public non-actuarial pension system, lead
to increases in the retirement age and steady-state welfare gains for all income classes.
Received: 7 December 2000/Accepted: 29 January 2002
All correspondence to ?ystein Th?gersen. Financial support from the Research Council of Norway (The Economic Research Program
on Taxation) is gratefully acknowledged. We are indebted to Lans Bovenberg, John Ermisch, Erling Steigum and two referees
for valuable comments and useful discussion. Responsible editor: John F. Ermisch. 相似文献
3.
Uncertain lifetime, fertility and social security 总被引:3,自引:2,他引:1
Akira Yakita 《Journal of population economics》2001,14(4):635-640
Investigating the effects of population aging on fertility and economic growth, we show that an increase in life expectancy
lowers the fertility rate and raises life-cycle savings, and that a pay-as-you-go social security does not reverse the effect
on fertility.
Received: 10 March 2000/Accepted: 28 April 2000 相似文献
4.
Kolmar M 《Journal of population economics》1997,10(3):335-356
For pay-as-you-go financed pension systems, claims may be calculated according to individual contributions (income) or the
number of children of a family. We analyse the optimal structure of these parameters in a model with endogenous fertility.
It is shown that for both structural determinants there exists no interior solution of the problem of intragenerational utility
maximisation. Thus, pure systems are always welfare maximizing. Furthermore, children-related pension claims induce a fiscal
externality that tends to be positive. The determination of the optimal contribution rate shows that the widely accepted Aaron-condition
is in general a misleading indicator for the comparison of fully funded and pay-as-you-go financed pension systems.
Received March 12, 1996 / Accepted January 27, 1997 相似文献
5.
The purpose of this paper is to study intergenerational optimal resources sharing when the social planer can choose the retirement
age in addition to consumptions and investment. We use the extension of the Diamond analysis by Hu [1979] that incorporates
endogenous retirement age. We found that the optimal retirement age is an increasing function of the population growth rate
if the elasticity of substitution of old agents' labor for young agents' labor is lower than one. In the millian case, when
the size of a population does not matter, and when the elasticity of substitution of old agents' labor for young agents' labor
is strictly higher than one, the optimal retirement age is a decreasing function of the population growth rate. In the benthamite
case, the change in the optimal retirement age is indeterminate.
Received: 19 February 1999/Accepted: 27 February 2001
All correspondence to Bertrand Crettez. We would like to thank Jean-Pierre Vidal for very helpful comments on an earlier
draft. An anonymous referee provided insightful comments on a previous version of this paper. Responsible editor: Alessandro Cigno. 相似文献
6.
In this paper we investigate the possibility of Pareto improving social security reforms within a framework of endogenous
growth. Belan et al. (1998) propose a transition from a pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension system to a system of savings–subsidization.
We follow this approach and prove that a Pareto improving conversion from the PAYG system to a fully funded one is possible.
Finally, we compare the subsidy system with the fully funded system and discuss the problem of implementing the transition
to the fully funded system.
Received: 07 March 1999/Accepted: 13 December 1999 相似文献
7.
Wigger BU 《Journal of population economics》1999,12(4):625-640
Employing an overlapping generations endogenous growth model in which parents derive utility from having children and, additionally,
expect children to support them in old age, this paper explores the interrelation between growth, fertility, and the size
of pay-as-you-go financed public pensions. It is shown that small sized public pensions stimulate per capita income growth,
but further increases in public pensions eventually reduce it. Fertility, on the other hand, falls by an increase in public
pensions if they are either small or large. Medium sized public pensions, however, may stimulate fertility.
Received: 9 September 1997 / Accepted: 10 April 1998 相似文献
8.
Becker and Barro (1988) formulated a theoretical model which identified a range of macroeconomic variables which can temporarily or permanently affect fertility in small open economies. This article tests the Becker-Barro model with relevant data which covers most of the 20th century for two small open economies, namely The Netherlands and New Zealand. The results show that government subsidies for having children have a strong positive effect on fertility, while the provision of public pensions has a strong negative effect. The degree of intergenerational altruism appears to have been declining. Moreover, there is only weak support for the hypothesis that real interest rates positively influence fertility. Received: 2 March 1998/Accepted: 1 September 1999 相似文献
9.
Sébastien Lecocq 《Journal of population economics》2001,14(4):585-597
In this paper, we test for the weak separability hypothesis imposed by the household production model between goods and time
inputs used in the production of different commodities. Our data come from a French survey which reports both expenditures
and time that households devote to some activities. The results allow us to show that the weak separability assumption cannot
be rejected only when households are strongly time constrained. In the opposite case, home time uses are found to be nonseparable.
Received: 24 November 1999/Accepted: 16 November 2000 相似文献
10.
Alexandra Rillaers 《Journal of population economics》2001,14(3):425-443
In this paper we aim to understand the role a welfare state can play in stimulating risky but profitable activities like
investment in education, and in reducing income inequality. We analyze how unemployment benefits may affect investment in
education when the latter is characterized by uncertain returns. This is done in an overlapping generations model in which
endogenous growth is introduced through human capital accumulation. We develop a numerical example of the model in order to
reproduce some key differences between the European versus the North American economy; differences that, according to this
model, result from the different degree of social protection characterizing both economies.
Received: 02 June 1999/Accepted: 22 February 2000 相似文献
11.
Estimating intrahousehold allocation in a collective model with household production 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Thomas Aronsson Sven-Olov Daunfeldt Magnus Wikström 《Journal of population economics》2001,14(4):569-584
The purpose of this paper is to estimate the intra-family distribution of income and the individual demand for leisure and
household production from Swedish cross-sectional household data. As a basis for the analysis, we use a collective model where
each individual is characterized by his or her own utility function and divides total time between leisure, household production
and market work. For the purpose of comparison, we also estimate a version that is consistent with a more traditional model
of labor supply, the unitary model.
Received: 14 April 2000/Accepted: 12 January 2001 相似文献
12.
Time preference, international migration, and social security 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Volker Meier 《Journal of population economics》2000,13(1):127-146
This paper analyzes both the formation of long-run migration incentives and the consequences of a regime change from “autarky”
to “free migration” in an overlapping-generations framework with two countries. Under autarky the countries may differ with
respect to their aggregate savings rate or with respect to their pension-wage ratio. It is shown that an individual prefers
to live in a country where the capital-labor ratio is close to the Golden Rule level and where his characteristics are relatively
scarce. Both the migration incentives and the consequences of free migration are determined by these two effects.
Received: 2 March 1998/Accepted: 10 February 1999 相似文献
13.
This paper presents a two-country migration model, following Galor (1986), in which the world population consists of two
types individuals. Individuals with a high (low) degree of altruism give to their children a high (low) level of bequest.
Production uses three inputs: immobile land, mobile labour, and capital. Capital mobility is linked to labour mobility since
individuals move with their inheritance. The model shows that countries are homothetic in the post-migration equilibrium with
equal factor prices and equal densities of population. Migration flows are bilateral and the number of each type of migrants
is uniquely determined. In some cases, migration leads to a Pareto improvement in both countries.
Received: 8 July 1999/Accepted: 7 April 2000 相似文献
14.
This paper investigates the effect of altruism on the pattern of labour migration in a two-country overlapping generations
model. We show that differences in degrees of altruism across countries lead to bilateral migration flows. Starting from the
autarkic steady-state equilibrium, restrictions on labour migration are relaxed. In temporary post-migration equilibrium factor
prices are equal across countries. We then characterize the unique stable steady-state equilibrium: both countries are populated
and this equilibrium is not a Pareto improvement. Some individuals prefer to live in autarky, others in an integrated world
economy.
Received: 6 July 1998/Accepted: 11 February 1999 相似文献
15.
Social security,social welfare and the aging population 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
This study examines the effects of pay-as-you-go social security programs in aging economies when the middle-aged both educate
their dependent children and subsidize the retirement of the old. Using an overlapping generations framework in which agents
are three-period lived but timing of death in the third period is uncertain, we analyze the effects of social security tax
schemes, under various demographic assumptions, on capital accumulation, education expenditures, social welfare, and economic
growth. We find that in many cases social security crowds out education, and reduces economic growth and social welfare.
Received: 29 April 1998/Accepted: 3 March 1999 相似文献
16.
This paper presents a simple general equilibrium analysis of first best allocations in an economy where a consumption good
is produced using labor. Production results in pollution, which is a public bad. Pollution abatement can be achieved either
by restricting production or by using additional labor. We consider how the first best allocation and Pigouvian tax vary with
population size. Consumers are unambiguously worse off when the population is larger, but not necessarily due to increased
pollution. In fact, optimal policy on how pollution and labor should vary with population size is very sensitive to preferences
and technology. The best response to an increase in population size might be either to increase or to decrease emissions and/or
labor, depending on functional forms and parameters. However, given separable preferences and some convexity, the optimal
emissions tax increases, and the first best level of per-capita consumption decreases with population size. The paper also
considers the extent to which exogenous technical progress can overturn these conclusions.
Received August 28, 1996 / Accepted January 27, 1997 相似文献
17.
For modeling complete female fertility we propose a zero-and-two-inflated count data model, which accounts for a relative
excess of both zero and two children. As the underlying distribution of counts we use the standard Poisson distribution and
the more general Gamma count distribution. We compare our proposed model with standard count data models by using data on
complete fertilities for a sample of Swedish women. The preferred specification for Swedish fertility data is the zero-and-two
inflated Gamma count data model. The estimated “extra” probabilities of zero and two children, when modelled as individual
specific probabilities, vary substantially across individuals, with mean of 0.05 and 0.16, respectively. These extra probabilities
show that women who formed a family later in life have a higher probability of being childless, and women of our youngest
cohort have a higher probability of forming a two-child family.
Received: 7 January 1999/Accepted: 19 May 1999 相似文献
18.
We study the Becker and Lewis (1973) quantity-quality model of children adding an explicit child care time constraint for
parents. Parents can take care of the children themselves or purchase day care. Our results are: (i) If there only is own
care, a quantity-quality trade-off, different from that of Becker and Lewis (1973), arises. The income effect on fertility
is positive if child quantity is a closer complement than child quality to the consumption of goods. (ii) If, instead, there
is a combination of purchased and own care, the effect of income on fertility is ambiguous, even if quantity of children is
a normal good in the standard sense. This is the Becker and Lewis (1973) result extended to a situation with a binding child
care time constraint. The conclusion is that the Becker and Lewis (1973) result holds as long as at least some child care
is purchased.
Received: 12 November 1999/Accepted: 1 September 2000 相似文献
19.
Anders Björklund Tor Eriksson Markus Jäntti Oddbjörn Raaum Eva Österbacka 《Journal of population economics》2002,15(4):757-772
The correlation in economic status among siblings is a useful “omnibus measure” of the overall impact of family and community
factors on adult economic status. In this study we compare brother correlations in long-run (permanent) earnings between the
United States, on one hand, and the Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden) on the other. Our base case results,
based on very similar sample criteria and definitions for all countries, show that this correlation is above 0.40 in the United
States and in the range 0.14–0.26 in the Nordic countries. Even though these results turn out to be somewhat sensitive to
some assumptions that have to be made, we conclude that the family and community factors are more important determinants of
long-run earnings in the United States than in the Nordic countries.
Received: 27 July 2000/Accepted: 7 March 2001
All correspondence to: Anders Bj?rklund. Comments from two referees, conference participants at ESPE2000 and the Canadian
Employment Research Forum, seminar participants in Aarhus, Uppsala, Bonn, and Stockholm are gratefully acknowledged. We thank
NOS-S for financial support. The Swedish data collection was also supported by HSFR and SFR. The Finnish data were obtained
with support from the Yrj? Jahnsson Foundation. We thank Tom Erik Aab? for preparing the Norwegian data, and Esben Agerbo
for computational assistance with the Danish data. Responsible editor: John F. Ermisch. 相似文献
20.
Andreas Wagener 《Journal of population economics》2003,16(1):111-134
Pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension schemes can contribute to better intergenerational risk-sharing and diversification. However,
different variants of PAYG schemes entail different properties in these respects. In a stochastic 2-OLG model we compare PAYG
schemes with fixed contribution rates and such with fixed replacement rates. The literature has shown that the former are
preferable to the later from an ex ante perspective. We derive the opposite result for the ex post perspective. Here, schemes with fixed replacement rates are unambiguously preferable: they enhance intergenerational risk-sharing,
lead to a higher savings and higher utility levels. We further show that, from an ex ante (veil-of-ignorance), perspective both schemes are non-comparable if the effect that fixed-replacement schemes serve as an
insurance device for old-age income is properly accounted for.
Received: 7 December 2000/Accepted: 17 May 2001 相似文献