SHAREHOLDER LIMITED LIABILITY AND MEAN-VARIANCE MODELS OF CAPITAL STRUCTURE*

This paper demonstrates that shareholder limited liability imposes a restriction on corporate borrowing and that failure to incorporate this restriction into the analysis yields the “reductio ad absurdum” argument against mean-variance models of optimal capital structure. With corporate income taxes and costless bankruptcy, the firm's value is a monotonically increasing function of debt as long as the amount of debt does not exceed the upper limit imposed by shareholder limited liability. As a result, the introduction of costly bankruptcy into the mean-variance framework is justified.     

Advance Selling in the Presence of Speculators and Forward‐Looking Consumers

This article examines the pricing policy of a monopolist seller who may sell in advance of consumption in a market that comprises of myopic consumers, forward‐looking consumers, and speculators. The latter group has no consumption value for the goods and is in the market with the sole objective of making a profit by reselling the purchased goods shortly after. Consumers, although homogeneous in terms of their valuations, are different with respect to their perspectives. We show that in an “upward” market where the expected valuation increases over time, the optimal pricing policy is an ex ante “static” one where the seller “prices into the future” and prices the myopic consumers out of the advance market. However, in a “downward” market where the expected valuation decreases over time, the seller adopts a dynamic pricing strategy except for the case when higher initial sales can trigger more demand subsequently and when the downward trend is not too high. In this case, the seller prefers an ex ante “static” pricing strategy and deliberately prices lower initially to sell to speculators. We identify the conditions under which the seller benefits from the existence of speculators in the market. Moreover, although the presence of entry costs is ineffective as an entry deterrence, we determine the conditions under which exit costs can rein in speculative purchase.     

PROPERTY RIGHTS AND THE EFFICIENCY OF BARGAINING

We show that efficient bargaining is impossible for a wide class of economic settings and property rights. These settings are characterized by (i) the existence of “adverse efficient opt‐out types”, whose participation does not change the efficient allocation and who, when they opt out, are the worst type other agents can face, and (ii) non‐existence of the “marginal core”, and its multivaluedness with a positive probability. We also examine the optimal allocation of property rights within a given class that satisfies (i), such as simple property rights, liability rules, and dual‐chooser rules. We characterize property rights that minimize the expected subsidy required to implement efficiency. With two agents, simple property rights that are optimal in this way maximize the expected surplus at the status quo allocation, but this no longer holds with more agents. We also study “second‐best” budget‐balanced bargaining under a liability rule. The optimal “second‐best” liability rule may differ from, but is often close to, the expectation of the victim's harm, which would be optimal if there were no bargaining. However, liability rules that are close to a simple property right result in a lower expected surplus than the simple property right they are near.     

Premature Deaths,Statistical Lives,and Years of Life Lost: Identification,Quantification, and Valuation of Mortality Risks

Mortality effects of exposure to air pollution and other environmental hazards are often described by the estimated number of “premature” or “attributable” deaths and the economic value of a reduction in exposure as the product of an estimate of “statistical lives saved” and a “value per statistical life.” These terms can be misleading because the number of deaths advanced by exposure cannot be determined from mortality data alone, whether from epidemiology or randomized trials (it is not statistically identified). The fraction of deaths “attributed” to exposure is conventionally derived as the hazard fraction (R – 1)/R, where R is the relative risk of mortality between high and low exposure levels. The fraction of deaths advanced by exposure (the “etiologic” fraction) can be substantially larger or smaller: it can be as large as one and as small as 1/e (≈0.37) times the hazard fraction (if the association is causal and zero otherwise). Recent literature reveals misunderstanding about these concepts. Total life years lost in a population due to exposure can be estimated but cannot be disaggregated by age or cause of death. Economic valuation of a change in exposure-related mortality risk to a population is not affected by inability to know the fraction of deaths that are etiologic. When individuals facing larger or smaller changes in mortality risk cannot be identified, the mean change in population hazard is sufficient for valuation; otherwise, the economic value can depend on the distribution of risk reductions.     

ON THE EQUIVALENCE OF TWO VERSIONS OF THE PRESENT VALUE PROCEDURE

The central issue in equipment investment analysis is the selection of the best of two or more alternatives. A common procedure is to first assume that for each alternative there is an infinite stream of identical pieces of equipment. The present value of the associated infinite stream of revenues and costs is calculated. Then the alternative having the highest present value (where revenues are positive and costs are negative) is selected. The assumption of the infinite stream, though computationally desirable, is not very palatable to the decision maker. In this paper we show that the above procedure is equivalent to using a criterion which is definitely more appealing. The author has found this “equivalence” result to be helpful in teaching the basic concepts of the present value procedure. Also the result should be of interest to practitioners involved in equipment investment decision making.     

FIELD EXPERIMENTS WHICH COMPARED THE EFFECTIVENESS OF DESIGN METHODS*

The influence of “method” on the design of services was investigated in three organizational settings. Models of “Systems,”“Behavioral,” and “Heuristic” design approaches were used to plan several service programs. These plans were compared using measures of their “quality,”“acceptance,” and “innovation.” Service plans designed by the Systems approach were found to have high quality (p < .05), and service plans designed by the Behavioral approach were found to be innovative (p < .05). These findings are employed to provide guides to select a Design Method and to suggest some research issues.     

Fractional Price Matching Policies Arising from the Ocean Freight Service Industry

We consider a situation in which shippers (customers) can purchase ocean freight services either directly from a carrier (service provider)in advance or from the spot market just before the departure of an ocean liner. The price is known in the former case, while the spot price is uncertain ex‐ante in the latter case. Consequently, some shippers are reluctant to book directly from the carrier in advance unless the carrier is willing to “partially match” the realized spot price when it is lower than the regular price. This study is an initial attempt to examine if the carrier should bear some of the “price risk” by offering a “fractional” price matching contract that can be described as follows. The shipper pays the regular freight price in advance; however, the shipper will get a refund if the realized spot price is below the regular price, where the refund is a “fraction” of the difference between the regular price and the realized spot price. By modeling the dynamics between the carrier and the shippers as a sequential game, we show that the carrier can use the fractional price matching contract to generate a higher demand from the shippers compared to no price matching contract by increasing the “fraction” in equilibrium. However, as the carrier increases the “fraction,” the carrier should increase the regular price to compensate for bearing additional risk. By selecting the fractional price matching contract optimally, we show that the carrier can afford to offer this price matching mechanism without incurring revenue loss: the optimal fractional price matching contract is “revenue neutral.”     

Promoting Seismic Retrofit Implementation Through “Nudge”: Using Warranty as a Driver

This article proposes a new type of warranty policy that applies the “nudge” concept developed by Thaler and Sunstein to encourage homeowners in Japan to implement seismic retrofitting. Homeowner adaptation to natural disasters through loss reduction measures is known to be inadequate. To encourage proactive risk management, the “nudge” approach capitalizes on how choice architecture can influence human decision‐making tendencies. For example, people tend to place more value on a warranty for consumer goods than on actuarial value. This article proposes a “warranty for seismic retrofitting” as a “nudge” policy that gives homeowners the incentive to adopt loss reduction measures. Under such a contract, the government guarantees all repair costs in the event of earthquake damage to the house if the homeowner implements seismic retrofitting. To estimate the degree to which a warranty will increase the perceived value of seismic retrofitting, we use field survey data from 1,200 homeowners. Our results show that a warranty increases the perceived value of seismic retrofitting by an average of 33%, and an approximate cost‐benefit analysis indicates that such a warranty can be more economically efficient than an ex ante subsidy. Furthermore, we address the failure of the standard expected utility model to explain homeowners’ decisions based on warranty evaluation, and explore the significant influence of ambiguity aversion on the efficacy of seismic retrofitting and nonanalytical factors such as feelings or trust.     

DEFINING THE ROLE AND ESTIMATION OF THE DISCOUNT FACTOR IN A SECURITY VALUATION MODEL

In this paper we show that a striking improvement in the explanatory power of a “dividend type” of security valuation model can be obtained by classifying companies into equivalent risk categories, estimating the discount factor for a category, and then constructing a cross-sectional model for it. The increased homogenity of the data base improves the model's sensitivity to systematic forces, but does not sacrifice the heterogeneity of the independent variables. Assuming that the difference between the intrinsic value of a security and its market value should be zero, the authors demonstrate a method for estimating k_jt, the market discount rate for the j^th risk category in the t^th period. The results of the estimation procedure appear to be reasonable and when used in our security valuation model they produce higher coefficients of determination (R²) than those previously published for similar models.     

ON THE TABLETOP IMPROVEMENT EXPERIMENTS OF JAPAN

Originally conceived by Frank and Lillian Gilbreth, the “tabletop improvement experiments” have been used in Japan since 1925 to teach important principles of continuous improvement. The experiments, designed for classroom use, communicate their lessons in a striking and memorable way. The work-related experiments categorize the sources of resistance to change and show how to neutralize them. The process-related experiments sharpen understanding of where the biggest opportunities for process improvement usually lie. Surprisingly, the experiments are hardly known in the West. We describe all of them and document their history for the first time.     

MULTICRITERIA OPTIMIZATION: A GENERAL CHARACTERIZATION OF EFFICIENT SOLUTIONS*

In the context of deterministic multicriteria maximization, a Pareto optimal, nondominated, or efficient solution is a feasible solution for which an increase in value of any one criterion can only be achieved at the expense of a decrease in value of at least one other criterion. Without restrictions of convexity or continuity, it is shown that a solution is efficient if and only if it solves an optimization problem that bounds the various criteria values from below and maximizes a strictly increasing function of these several criteria values. Also included are discussions of previous work concerned with generating or characterizing the set of efficient solutions, and of the interactive approach for resolving multicriteria optimization problems. The final section argues that the paper's main result should not actually be used to generate the set of efficient solutions, relates this result to Simon's theory of satisficing, and then indicates why and how it can be used as the basis for interactive procedures with desirable characteristics.     

动态均值-方差资产组合的有效性:时变风险容忍度视角

尽管均值-方差模型在静态资产组合优化过程中得到广泛运用并证明是有效的,但在动态情景下,均值-方差模型运用于动态资产组合优化过程中的有效性问题引起人们的质疑：一是常风险规避系数的设定不符合事实;二是投资者偏好设定不符合动态情景下的主流效用函数族。鉴于此,本文假设投资者风险容忍度是资产组合投资期与投资者期望收益率的函数,研究动态均值-方差资产组合的有效性问题。基于均值-方差分析框架构建时变风险容忍度下的动态资产组合模型;运用伊藤定理和拉格朗日乘子法获得最优资产组合封闭解;基于二次效用偏好下的动态资产组合,从资产组合策略、夏普率、确定性等价收益率和有效前沿等视角验证动态均值-方差资产组合策略和业绩,并予以实证。结果表明：动态均值-方差资产组合不但具有同等业绩而且体现了其灵活性和风险对冲价值;尽管动态均值-方差资产组合表现出高杠杆性,但其确定性等价收益率较高,且随投资期的增加呈现倒U型趋势;动态均值-方差资产组合的投资期效应显著,强于投资者期望收益率。研究指出,时变风险容忍度下的动态均值-方差资产组合管理和优化策略有效,但在短投资期（低于12个月）和（或）低期望收益率下并不适用。研究不但拓展了均值-方差模型在动态情境下的应用,而且体现了投资者源于心理和（或）其财富变化的投资行为调整。     

PROPOSALS FOR A PROGRAM OF EMPIRICAL RESEARCH INTO THE PROPERTIES OF TRIANGLES*

Physical geometry is viewed in this essay as the prototype of a successful generalizing empirical science. Suppose that physical geometry had been studied in ancient Egypt by empirical methods similar to those commonly used today by many researchers seeking general propositions useful in explaining, predicting, or controlling phenomena of interest to practicing managers. Would these methods have produced valid and useful geometric generalizations? This intriguing question is explored in Part I by means of a parable which suggests a negative answer to the question. The reasons for this negative conclusion are developed in Part II. In the successful generalizing sciences, general propositions (or theory) have not been the result of an a posteriori“induction” from observational data, but rather the result of an a priori“construction” of a framework for the coordination of measurement operations. Such a framework, whether explicitly articulated or not, is a necessary condition for the collection of coherent and reproducible observational data and, therefore, for explanation, prediction, and control of phenomena. Yet, despite its a priori character, an acceptable framework or theory must be “empirical” in Popper's sense of being subject to refutation by observation. If the framework is logically prior to data, however, what is its source? In the successful generalizing sciences, it is argued in Part III, theories have been generalized not from data but from the skills—the coordination of operations—of practitioners. This genesis “explains” the success of the sciences, because an effective skill includes within itself tests of its range of applicability and adapts itself to changing conditions. A discussion of the implications of this argument for making management “scientific” concludes the essay.     

基于Heston模型时间一致的资产负债管理鲁棒策略

本文在非完备市场框架下，研究了时间一致的鲁棒最优投资组合选择问题。首先，假设金融市场由无风险资产和风险资产构成，其中风险资产的价格过程服从Heston随机波动率模型，且投资者面临一个不可控的外生负债。其次，应用随机最优控制理论，给出并证明了验证定理，建立了相应的拓展Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman(HJB)方程组，通过求解拓展的HJB方程组，得到了鲁棒均衡投资策略和值函数的显式解。最后，通过数值模拟，给出了模型参数变动对均衡投资策略和效用改善的影响。结果表明：(1) 当风险资产的价格和其波动的相关系数大于零时，股票方差的波动越大，越不利于投资。否则反之。(2) 当风险资产的价格和其波动的相关系数越大时，风险资产的风险就越大，投资者会采取保守的投资策略，减少投资。(3) 负债的波动率变大，投资者会面临更大的负债风险，为了对冲风险，投资者会增加风险资产的投资。(4) 当投资者考虑模型不确定的影响时，采用鲁棒投资策略能显著提高投资者的效用水平。     

INTERVENTIONS INTO GROUP PROCESS: AN APPROACH TO IMPROVING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF GROUPS*

Some new directions for research on group effectiveness are proposed. These include: (a) explicit recognition of group interaction process as the moderator of input-output relationships in groups; (b) research which focuses on the functions of group interaction in influencing group performance; and (c) use of experimental interventions which create new, non-typical patterns of interpersonal behavior in groups as an approach to studying group effectiveness. The results of two studies based on these proposals are summarized. One study examines the effectiveness of implicit vs. explicit discussion of group task “strategies”; the other addresses the effects of implicit (“traditional”) vs. explicit (“adaptive”) approaches to the maintenance of internal social relationships in work groups. Implications of the research are drawn both for future research on group effectiveness, and for the design of interventions aimed at improving the performance of on-going groups in organizations.     

THE INDUCE VERSUS PURCHASE DECISION: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF INDUSTRIAL R&D*

With the recent slowdown in productivity growth within the economy, R&D has come under scrutiny as a policy target variable. If such targeting is to be effective, it must be realized that not all innovations employed within a firm are induced by the firm through its own R&D: many innovations are purchased through technological licensing or in the form of new capital equipment. Here, interfirm differences in this “make” versus “buy” strategy are analyzed within the context of the Utterback-Abernathy production process lifecycle. Our findings suggest that (1) alternative sources to a firm's R&D for stimulating innovation may prove a viable strategy for federal targeting and (2) extrapolating the Utterback-Abernathy model to an industry formulation has empirical validity.     

MANUFACTURING STRATEGY ON THE “S” CURVE

The concept and techniques of “manufacturing strategy” offer managers the opportunity to use their production function as a strategic weapon in competition, an apparently attractive objective. Yet after about 25 years, the use of manufacturing in corporate strategy (MCS) as a management practice is not widespread. In contrast, however, in academic literature it appears to be flourishing and rapidly growing in popularity. This paper seeks to answer this apparent paradox, beginning with the history of MCS as it was developed as a theory of design to enable a manufacturing system to be focused on a key competitive task. Common criticisms of MCS, such as “tradeoffs,” “focus” and “undynamic,” are examined and refuted as valid reasons for its only modest usage. Instead, three “new” problems in the MCS concept and its techniques are suggested as genuine needs for the completion of the theory and for its becoming more universally understood and used by industrial managers.     

Estimating Health Risks from Natural Hazards Using Risk Assessment and Epidemiology

Risk assessment is the process of estimating the likelihood that an adverse effect may result from exposure to a specific health hazard. The process traditionally involves hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization to answer “How many excess cases of disease A will occur in a population of size B due to exposure to agent C at dose level D?” For natural hazards, however, we modify the risk assessment paradigm to answer “How many excess cases of outcome Y will occur in a population of size B due to natural hazard event E of severity D?” Using a modified version involving hazard identification, risk factor characterization, exposure characterization, and risk characterization, we demonstrate that epidemiologic modeling and measures of risk can quantify the risks from natural hazard events. We further extend the paradigm to address mitigation, the equivalent of risk management, to answer “What is the risk for outcome Y in the presence of prevention intervention X relative to the risk for Y in the absence of X?” We use the preventable fraction to estimate the efficacy of mitigation, or reduction in adverse health outcomes as a result of a prevention strategy under ideal circumstances, and further estimate the effectiveness of mitigation, or reduction in adverse health outcomes under typical community-based settings. By relating socioeconomic costs of mitigation to measures of risk, we illustrate that prevention effectiveness is useful for developing cost-effective risk management options.     

A FRAMEWORK FOR THE SYSTEM DESIGN PROCESS1

Much discussion and writing about “systems” is often superficial, glib, and of a non-operational nature. This paper presents a cohesive framework for the process of system design which is felt to be of operational value in the design and management of systems. The framework's central tenet is that all systems are made up of entities and the relationships among the attributes of those entities; and that in designing systems, two processes are used, inclusion and structuring. Inclusion is concerned with what entities to include in a system and structuring with how their attributes are to be related. The system design process is directed or driven by a set (system) of criteria. Systems must be viewed with a time dimension: evolution will and should take place, both in the systems themselves and, more importantly, in the criteria that drive the design and evolution of those systems. In this framework, all problem solvers can usefully regard themselves as system designers. Presentation of the framework is followed by examples, discussion of the criteria set, system design tools, and some implications for teachers and practitioners.