Economic Uncertainty and Fertility

Sociologists and demographers have long been interested in the role of economic uncertainty in family behavior. Despite the prevailing “bourgeois conviction” that economic uncertainty discourages people from having children, the empirical evidence on this issue is mixed. In this paper, I summarize the recent empirical evidence, and discuss the potential limitations of previous investigations. Among the possible shortcomings of these studies is that many relied exclusively on unemployment as an operational definition of labor market uncertainty. Subjective indicators of economic uncertainty, which measure the individual’s perception of his or her economic situation more directly, often were not available to researchers. Moreover, few of these studies explored group-specific differences in behavior. In this paper, we seek to overcome some of the limitations of these earlier analyses. Based on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP), we study the role of perceived economic uncertainty in transitions to first and higher order births for the period 1990–2013. In addition, we examine how different population subgroups (stratified by education, parity, and age) respond to economic uncertainty.     

Perceived Economic Uncertainty and Fertility: Evidence From a Labor Market Reform

Whereas in theory individuals tend to postpone fertility decisions in times of economic uncertainty, empirical evidence on that question is scarce. Using data from the German Socio‐Economic Panel (N = 4,548), the authors estimated the effect of economic concerns on the probability of becoming pregnant in the next year. They exploited exogenous variation in economic concerns induced by the announcement of a major German unemployment benefit reform as an instrumental variable and found that strong economic concerns were significantly related to lower fertility of women between ages 26 and 44 years cohabiting with a male partner. Jointly estimating the impact of male and female concerns in a model that allows for endogeneity of perceived economic uncertainty revealed that it was strong economic concerns perceived by the women that reduced fertility. The effect was driven by male main breadwinner couples, by couples with a medium household income, and by couples who already had children.     

Institutional Infrastructure and Economic Performance: Dynamic Panel Data Evidence

This paper attempts to empirically investigate the link between institutional quality and economic performance in a group of 72 countries during 1980–2001, using dynamic panel data analysis. Five institutional indicators that represent the overall institutional infrastructures of an economy are employed, namely corruption, rule of law, bureaucracy, repudiation of contracts and risk of expropriation. The empirical results demonstrate that institutions’ variables are statistically significant determinants of economic performance. The findings also suggest that the effects of institutional quality vary according to the level of economic development, where institutions are more responsive in the low-income and middle-income countries. In terms of specific effect of institutional development, the results reveal that the higher level of rule of law is most potent in delivering long-run economic benefits.     

Determinants of International Migration Flows to and from Industrialized Countries: A Panel Data Approach Beyond Gravity1

We quantified determinants of international migratory inflows to 17 Western countries and outflows from 13 of these countries between 1950 and 2007 in 77,658 observations from multiple sources using panel-data analysis techniques. To construct a quantitative model that could be useful for demographic projection, we analyzed the logarithm of the number of migrants (inflows and outflows separately) as dependent variables in relation to demographic, geographic, and social independent variables. The independent variables most influential on log inflows were demographic [log population of origin and destination and log infant mortality rate (IMR) of origin and destination] and geographic (log distance between capitals and log land area of the destination). Social and historical determinants were less influential. For log outflows from the 13 countries, the most influential independent variables were log population of origin and destination, log IMR of destination, and log distance between capitals. A young age structure in the destination was associated with lower inflows while a young age structure in the origin was associated with higher inflows. Urbanization in destination and origin increased international migration. IMR affected inflows and outflows significantly but oppositely. Being landlocked, having a common border, having the same official language, sharing a minority language, and colonial links also had statistically significant but quantitatively smaller effects on international migration. Comparisons of models with different assumed correlation structures of residuals indicated that independence was the best assumption, supporting the use of ordinary-least-squares estimation techniques to obtain point estimates of coefficients.     

Politics,Not Economic Interests: Determinants of Migration Policies in the European Union1

In this article we examine the determinants of European Union (EU) migration policies. We look at the passage of six pieces of migration and immigrant integration legislation in the fifth European Parliament (1999–2004). Based on the sixty‐one roll‐call votes on these bills we create a “migration score” for each Member of the European Parliament. We then use regression analysis to investigate the determinants of these scores. We find that the strongest determinants of policy outcomes on migration issues in this arena are the left‐right preferences of EU legislators. These are stronger predictors than the economic preferences of national parties’ constituents or the economic interests or political preferences of the member states.     

Using Community Members to Collect Observational Data: Observer Training and Data Quality Assessment

ABSTRACT

This article highlights a structured approach to preparing community members for observational data collection in participatory research. Providing training related to the items that will be observed and conducting post-training assessments of observer accuracy and interrater reliability provides researchers with a measure of observer readiness to collect data. In addition, reassessing observer accuracy and interrater reliability at the end of data collection offers a measure of confidence in the data collection process. Discussion of this approach includes addressing survey items with low observer percentage agreement scores and training and evaluation strategies for intermittent and extended data collection periods.     

An Assessment of the Determinants of Religious Participation*

Variations in patterns of church attendance are examined for a 1974 national sample of American Protestants and Catholics. Contrary to past results, socioeconomic status and alienation contribute little, but sociodemographic variables contribute more to the explained variance in church attendance. Region and sex affect church attendance more than education, occupation, or income. Religiosity and confidence in the clergy are the most important determinants of church attendance and together account for half of the total variance explained in church attendance.     

Uncertainty and Fertility in a Generalized AIDS Epidemic

Sociologists widely acknowledge that uncertainty matters for decision making, but they rarely measure it directly. In this article, we demonstrate the importance of theorizing about, measuring, and analyzing uncertainty as experienced by individuals. We adapt a novel probabilistic solicitation technique to measure personal uncertainty about HIV status in a high HIV prevalence area of southern Malawi. Using data from 2,000 young adults (ages 15 to 25 years), we demonstrate that uncertainty about HIV status is widespread and that it expands as young adults assess their proximate and distant futures. In conceptualizing HIV status as something more than sero-status itself, we gain insight into how what individuals know they don't know influences their lives. Young people who are uncertain about their HIV status express desires to accelerate their childbearing relative to their counterparts who are certain they are uninfected. Our approach and findings show that personal uncertainty is a measurable and meaningful phenomenon that can illuminate much about individuals' aspirations and behaviors.     

An Economic Analysis of the Gap Between Desired and Actual Fertility: The Case of Spain

Family size is the outcome of sequential decisions influenced both by preferences and by ongoing changes in the environment where a family lives. During the last two decades, the gap between the number of children women prefer and their actual fertility has widened in Spain. The paper uses the 1985 and 1999 Spanish Fertility Surveys to study whether the tightening of the labor market and worsening of economic conditions in Spain during the last 20 years are important determinants of this change. I find that women facing high unemployment rates in their mid-twenties tend to restrict their fertility below their ideal level. Among women in the labor force, the stability of a public sector job lessens the difficulties of balancing employment and family and of achieving preferred fertility. Temporary contracts work in the opposite direction. Findings are robust to the inclusion of controls for within-couple discrepancies in either preferences or religious affiliation.

The Great Recession,Fertility, and Uncertainty: Evidence From the United States

The Great Recession produced the highest rates of unemployment and foreclosure in the United States since the Great Depression. In this article the author examines the consequences of these poor economic conditions for fertility in the United States by estimating the effect of area‐level economic conditions on state fertility in the years leading up to and including the Great Recession. The economic impacts of the Great Recession, captured by state‐level economic conditions, had a strong negative effect on fertility in models with state and year fixed effects. These reductions in fertility were likely caused both by increased economic hardship and increased economic uncertainty.     

Family Policy and Fertility Intentions in 21 European Countries

European countries show substantial variation in family policy and in the extent to which policies support more traditional male‐breadwinner or more gender egalitarian earner–carer family arrangements. Using data from the European Social Survey, the authors implemented multilevel models to analyze variation in fertility intentions of 16,000 men and women according to individual‐level characteristics and family policy across 21 European countries. Both traditional and earner–carer family support generosity were positively related to first‐birth intentions for men and women. In contrast, only earner–carer support maintains its positive relationship with second birth intentions. Family policy is not in general related to third and higher order parity intentions.     

Social and Economic Structural Antecedents of Fertility*

Social and economic structural characteristics of counties are used to predict differences in county fertility rates using 1970 census data for North Carolina's one hundred counties. We argue that fertility rates are affected by county social and economic structures, and hypothesize that fertility rates vary directly with level of occupational sex segregation and inversely with degree of urbanization, industrialization, population size, and female labor force participation rates of counties. Variables reflecting general sociodemographic characteristics of counties are also included in the analysis. Using multiple linear regression and factor analytic techniques, a preliminary model of social and economic structural antecedents of fertility is constructed. Three factors, which collectively account for 69 percent of the variance in fertility rates, are indicative of the importance of social and economic structural conditions in accounting for variation in local fertility.     

Determinants of Charitable Donations to Large U.S. Higher Education,Hospital, and Scientific Research NPOs: New Evidence from Panel Data

We provide improved evidence on effects that fund-raising, government support, and program revenue of U.S. higher education, hospital, and scientific research nonprofit organizations (NPOs) have on donations to those NPOs and provide improved estimates of price elasticities of donations to, and donor demand for output of, those NPOs. Applying econometric tests, we find the best-specified model is two-way fixed effects, which controls for organization-specific and time-specific factors. Results suggest that U.S. higher education, hospital, and scientific research NPOs fund-raise to the point where the marginal fund-raising dollar brings in zero dollars of donations, donor demand for output of hospitals and scientific research NPOs is price inelastic and price elastic, respectively, and results are not sensitive to specification of price.     

Effects of VariablesUsing Panel Data: A Review of Techniques

One motivation for using panel data is to determine the relativeeffects of two variables which are known to be related. Thisarticle reviews the four techniques which have been used mostoften to address this problem. The relative merits of the fourLazarsfeld's 16 Fold Table, Coleman's Four State ContinuousTime Markov Process, Cross Lagged Panel Correlation, and PathAnalysis and the particular problems associated with each arereviewed. The first three methods are shown to yield similarresults, the fourth to do so under some assumptions.     

Organizational Uncertainty and Labor Contracts in China's Economic Transition

Lifetime employment was a cornerstone of the Chinese socialist system constructed under Mao. In this system, organizations served the function of social security, and as a result, many organizations were overburdened with bloated work forces and retirees that drew from organizational coffers well into old age. Labor contracts fundamentally alter this system, as they allow firms to end the socialist institution of lifetime employment. Yet there is significant variation on the institutionalization of labor contracts in organizations. Based on a sample of 81 firms in industrial Shanghai, I show that organizations that are experiencing uncertainty in the economic transition are more likely to institutionalize labor contracts on an organizationwide basis. There are two types of organizational uncertainty in the economic transition: economic uncertainty and administrative uncertainty. In cases of economic uncertainty, firms that lost money in 1990 and firms that are burdened by large forces of retired workers are more likely to place their workers on labor contracts. In the case of administrative uncertainty, firms that are at the highest levels of the industrial hierarchy are also significantly more likely to place their workers on labor contracts. Although these upper level firms were the most protected under the command economy, they are being forced to handle the greatest among the responsibilities in the economic transition, and as a result, they experience the greatest sense of being set adrift by the state.