Multipower variation from generalized difference for fractional integral processes with jumps

This article presents limit theorems of the multipower variation based on a generalized difference for the fractional integral process with jumps observed in high frequency. In particular, we obtain the large number laws for threshold multipower variation and multipower variation and the associated central limit theorems. The limit theorems are applied to estimate Hurst parameter, and the consistence and asymptotic distribution of the estimator are established. These results will provide some new statistical tools to analyze long-memory effect in high-frequency situation.     

Non‐parametric Threshold Estimation for Models with Stochastic Diffusion Coefficient and Jumps

Abstract. We consider a stochastic process driven by diffusions and jumps. Given a discrete record of observations, we devise a technique for identifying the times when jumps larger than a suitably defined threshold occurred. This allows us to determine a consistent non‐parametric estimator of the integrated volatility when the infinite activity jump component is Lévy. Jump size estimation and central limit results are proved in the case of finite activity jumps. Some simulations illustrate the applicability of the methodology in finite samples and its superiority on the multipower variations especially when it is not possible to use high frequency data.     

Central Limit Theorems of Local Polynomial Threshold Estimator for Diffusion Processes with Jumps

Central limit theorems play an important role in the study of statistical inference for stochastic processes. However, when the non‐parametric local polynomial threshold estimator, especially local linear case, is employed to estimate the diffusion coefficients of diffusion processes, the adaptive and predictable structure of the estimator conditionally on the σ ‐field generated by diffusion processes is destroyed, so the classical central limit theorem for martingale difference sequences cannot work. In high‐frequency data, we proved the central limit theorems of local polynomial threshold estimators for the volatility function in diffusion processes with jumps by Jacod's stable convergence theorem. We believe that our proof procedure for local polynomial threshold estimators provides a new method in this field, especially in the local linear case.     

Heterogenous market hypothesis evaluation using multipower variation volatility

High-frequency trading activities are one of the common phenomena in nowadays financial markets. Enormous amounts of high-frequency trading data are generated by huge numbers of market participants in every trading day. The availability of this information allows researchers to further examine the statistical properties of informationally efficient market hypothesis (EMH). Heterogenous market hypothesis (HMH) is one of the important extensions of EMH literature. HMH introduced nonlinear trading behaviors of heterogenous market participants instead of normality assumption under the EMH homogenous market participants. In this study, we attempt to explore more high-frequency volatility estimators in the HMH examination. These include the bipower, tripower, and quadpower variation integrated volatility estimates using Heterogenous AutoRegressive (HAR) models. The empirical findings show that these alternatives multipower variation (MPV) estimators provide better estimation and out-of-sample forecast evaluations as compared to the standard realized volatility. In other words, the usage of MPV estimators is able to better explain the HMH statistically. At last, a market risk determination is illustrated using value-at-risk approach.     

How precise is the finite sample approximation of the asymptotic distribution of realised variation measures in the presence of jumps?

This paper studies the impact of jumps on volatility estimation and inference based on various realised variation measures such as realised variance, realised multipower variation and truncated realised multipower variation. We review the asymptotic theory of those realised variation measures and present a new estimator for the asymptotic ‘variance’ of the centered realised variance in the presence of jumps. Next, we compare the finite sample performance of the various estimators by means of detailed Monte Carlo studies. Here we study the impact of the jump activity, of the jump size of the jumps in the price and of the presence of additional independent or dependent jumps in the volatility. We find that the finite sample performance of realised variance and, in particular, of log-transformed realised variance is generally good, whereas the jump-robust statistics tend to struggle in the presence of a highly active jump process.     

Power Variations and Testing for Co‐Jumps: The Small Noise Approach

In this paper, we study the effects of noise on bipower variation, realized volatility (RV) and testing for co‐jumps in high‐frequency data under the small noise framework. We first establish asymptotic properties of bipower variation in this framework. In the presence of the small noise, RV is asymptotically biased, and the additional asymptotic conditional variance term appears in its limit distribution. We also propose consistent estimators for the asymptotic variances of RV. Second, we derive the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic proposed in (Ann. Stat. 37, 1792‐1838) under the presence of small noise for testing the presence of co‐jumps in a two‐dimensional Itô semimartingale. In contrast to the setting in (Ann. Stat. 37, 1792‐1838), we show that the additional asymptotic variance terms appear and propose consistent estimators for the asymptotic variances in order to make the test feasible. Simulation experiments show that our asymptotic results give reasonable approximations in the finite sample cases.     

Central limit theorems for smoothed extreme value estimates of Poisson point processes boundaries

In this paper, we give sufficient conditions to establish central limit theorems for boundary estimates of Poisson point processes. The considered estimates are obtained by smoothing some bias-corrected extreme values of the point process. We show how the smoothing leads to Gaussian asymptotic distributions and therefore pointwise confidence intervals. Some new unidimensional and multidimensional examples are provided.     

Estimation of the integrated volatility using noisy high-frequency data with jumps and endogeneity

In this paper, we investigate a new estimator of the integrated volatility of Itô semimartingales in the presence of both market microstructure noise and jumps when sampling times are endogenous. In the first step, our estimation wipes off the effects of the microstructure noise, and in the second step our estimator shrinks the effects of jumps. We provide consistency of the estimator when the jumps have finite variation and infinite variation and establish a central limit theorem for the estimator in a general endogenous time setting when the jumps only have finite variation. Simulation illustrates the performance of the proposed estimator.     

A Non‐Parametric Estimator of the Spectral Density of a Continuous‐Time Gaussian Process Observed at Random Times

Abstract. In numerous applications data are observed at random times and an estimated graph of the spectral density may be relevant for characterizing and explaining phenomena. By using a wavelet analysis, one derives a non‐parametric estimator of the spectral density of a Gaussian process with stationary increments (or a stationary Gaussian process) from the observation of one path at random discrete times. For every positive frequency, this estimator is proved to satisfy a central limit theorem with a convergence rate depending on the roughness of the process and the moment of random durations between successive observations. In the case of stationary Gaussian processes, one can compare this estimator with estimators based on the empirical periodogram. Both estimators reach the same optimal rate of convergence, but the estimator based on wavelet analysis converges for a different class of random times. Simulation examples and an application to biological data are also provided.     

On the Estimation of Integrated Volatility With Jumps and Microstructure Noise

In this article, we propose a nonparametric procedure to estimate the integrated volatility of an Itô semimartingale in the presence of jumps and microstructure noise. The estimator is based on a combination of the preaveraging method and threshold technique, which serves to remove microstructure noise and jumps, respectively. The estimator is shown to work for both finite and infinite activity jumps. Furthermore, asymptotic properties of the proposed estimator, such as consistency and a central limit theorem, are established. Simulations results are given to evaluate the performance of the proposed method in comparison with other alternative methods.     

Rates of convergence for U-statistic processes and their bootstrapped versions

U-statistic processes are often used to detect a possible change in the distributions of the observations. We obtain the exact rate of convergence in some limit theorems for U-statistics. We discuss the application of the weighted bootstrap to change-point analysis. We show that the bootstrap approximation for U-statistics is as good as the large sample approximations using Gaussian processes. However, the bootstrap approximation is much better when the limit distributions are extreme values.     

The null hypothesis of (common) jumps in case of irregular and asynchronous observations

This paper proposes novel tests for the absence of jumps in a univariate semimartingale and for the absence of common jumps in a bivariate semimartingale. Our methods rely on ratio statistics of power variations based on irregular observations, sampled at different frequencies. We develop central limit theorems for the statistics under the respective null hypotheses and apply bootstrap procedures to assess the limiting distributions. Furthermore, we define corrected statistics to improve the finite sample performance. Simulations show that the test based on our corrected statistic yields good results and even outperforms existing tests in the case of regular observations.     

On Integrated Volatility of Itô Semimartingales when Sampling Times are Endogenous

In this paper, we estimate the integrated volatility of Itô semimartingale when sampling times are endogenous. The estimator is proved to be consistent, and is robust to jumps, regardless of whether they are finite and infinite activity jumps. We also establish a central limit theorem for the estimator in a general endogenous time setting when the jumps have finite variation. Simulation is also included to illustrate the performance of the proposed procedure.     

Uniform in Bandwidth Estimation of Integral Functionals of the Density Function

Abstract. We apply recent results on local U‐statistics to obtain uniform in bandwidth consistency and central limit theorems for some commonly used estimators of integral functionals of density functions.     

Weighted Dickey–Fuller processes for detecting stationarity

Aiming at monitoring a time series to detect stationarity as soon as possible, we introduce monitoring procedures based on kernel-weighted sequential Dickey–Fuller (DF) processes, and related stopping times, which may be called weighted DF control charts. Under rather weak assumptions, (functional) central limit theorems are established under the unit root null hypothesis and local-to-unity alternatives. For general dependent and heterogeneous innovation sequences the limit processes depend on a nuisance parameter. In this case of practical interest, one can use estimated control limits obtained from the estimated asymptotic law. Another easy-to-use approach is to transform the DF processes to obtain limit laws which are invariant with respect to the nuisance parameter. We provide asymptotic theory for both approaches and compare their statistical behavior in finite samples by simulation.     

INVERSE GAUSSIAN CONTROL CHARTS

Control charts typically used to monitor process centrality and dispersion either assume normally distributed output or appeal to the viability of the central limit theorem. This appeal to the central limit theorem is frequently made on behalf of samples consisting of 10 or fewer items. Control charts for centrality and dispersion are presented for processes with inverse Gaussian distributed output.     

Parameter Estimation for a Discretely Observed Integrated Diffusion Process

Abstract.  We consider the estimation of unknown parameters in the drift and diffusion coefficients of a one-dimensional ergodic diffusion X when the observation is a discrete sampling of the integral of X at times i Δ , i  =  1 ,…, n . Assuming that the sampling interval tends to 0 while the total length time interval tends to infinity, we first prove limit theorems for functionals associated with our observations. We apply these results to obtain a contrast function. The associated minimum contrast estimators are shown to be consistent and asymptotically Gaussian with different rates for drift and diffusion coefficient parameters.     

LAN property for an ergodic Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process with Poisson jumps

In this article, we consider an ergodic Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process with jumps driven by a Brownian motion and a compensated Poisson process, whose drift and diffusion coefficients as well as its jump intensity depend on unknown parameters. Considering the process discretely observed at high frequency, we derive the local asymptotic normality property. To obtain this result, Malliavin calculus and Girsanov’s theorem are applied to write the log-likelihood ratio in terms of sums of conditional expectations, for which a central limit theorem for triangular arrays can be applied.     

Asymptotic results for random coefficient bifurcating autoregressive processes

The purpose of this paper is to study the asymptotic behaviour of the weighted least-squares estimators of the unknown parameters of random coefficient bifurcating autoregressive processes. Under suitable assumptions on the immigration and the inheritance, we establish the almost sure convergence of our estimators, as well as a quadratic strong law and central limit theorems. Our study mostly relies on limit theorems for vector-valued martingales.     

Realized Volatility: A Review

This article reviews the exciting and rapidly expanding literature on realized volatility. After presenting a general univariate framework for estimating realized volatilities, a simple discrete time model is presented in order to motivate the main results. A continuous time specification provides the theoretical foundation for the main results in this literature. Cases with and without microstructure noise are considered, and it is shown how microstructure noise can cause severe problems in terms of consistent estimation of the daily realized volatility. Independent and dependent noise processes are examined. The most important methods for providing consistent estimators are presented, and a critical exposition of different techniques is given. The finite sample properties are discussed in comparison with their asymptotic properties. A multivariate model is presented to discuss estimation of the realized covariances. Various issues relating to modelling and forecasting realized volatilities are considered. The main empirical findings using univariate and multivariate methods are summarized.