Two tests for sequential detection of a change-point in a nonlinear model

In this paper, two tests, based on weighted CUSUM of the least squares residuals, are studied to detect in real time a change-point in a nonlinear model. A first test statistic is proposed by extension of a method already used in the literature but for the linear models. It is tested under the null hypothesis, at each sequential observation, that there is no change in the model against a change presence. The asymptotic distribution of the test statistic under the null hypothesis is given and its convergence in probability to infinity is proved when a change occurs. These results will allow to build an asymptotic critical region. Next, in order to decrease the type I error probability, a bootstrapped critical value is proposed and a modified test is studied in a similar way. A generalization of the Hájek–Rényi inequality is established.     

Approximations to the p-values of tests for a change-point under non-standard conditions

Three test statistics for a change-point in a linear model, variants of those considered by Andrews and Ploberger [Optimal tests when a nusiance parameter is present only under the alternative. Econometrica. 1994;62:1383–1414]: the sup-likelihood ratio (LR) statistic; a weighted average of the exponential of LR-statistics and a weighted average of LR-statistics, are studied. Critical values for the statistics with time trend regressors, obtained via simulation, are found to vary considerably, depending on conditions on the error terms. The performance of the bootstrap in approximating p-values of the distributions is assessed in a simulation study. A sample approximation to asymptotic analytical expressions extending those of Kim and Siegmund [The likelihood ratio test for a change-point in simple linear regression. Biometrika. 1989;76:409–423] in the case of the sup-LR test is also assessed. The approximations and bootstrap are applied to the Quandt data [The estimation of a parameter of a linear regression system obeying two separate regimes. J Amer Statist Assoc. 1958;53:873–880] and real data concerning a change-point in oxygen uptake during incremental exercise testing and the bootstrap gives reasonable results.     

Detection and estimation of structural change in heavy-tailed sequence

In this paper, bootstrap detection and ratio estimation are proposed to analysis mean change in heavy-tailed distribution. First, the test statistic is constructed into a ratio form on the CUSUM process. Then, the asymptotic distribution of test statistic is obtained and the consistency of the test is proved. To solve the problem that the null distribution of the test statistic contains unknown tail index, we present a bootstrap approximation method to determine the critical values of the null distribution. We also discuss how to estimate change point based on ratio method. The consistency and rate of convergence for the change-point estimator are established. Finally, the excellent performance of our method is demonstrated through simulations using artificial and real data sets. Especially the simulation results of bootstrap test are better than those of another existing method.     

Change-Point Tests for the Error Distribution in Non-parametric Regression

Abstract.  Several testing procedures are proposed that can detect change-points in the error distribution of non-parametric regression models. Different settings are considered where the change-point either occurs at some time point or at some value of the covariate. Fixed as well as random covariates are considered. Weak convergence of the suggested difference of sequential empirical processes based on non-parametrically estimated residuals to a Gaussian process is proved under the null hypothesis of no change-point. In the case of testing for a change in the error distribution that occurs with increasing time in a model with random covariates the test statistic is asymptotically distribution free and the asymptotic quantiles can be used for the test. This special test statistic can also detect a change in the regression function. In all other cases the asymptotic distribution depends on unknown features of the data-generating process and a bootstrap procedure is proposed in these cases. The small sample performances of the proposed tests are investigated by means of a simulation study and the tests are applied to a data example.     

A Test for Constant Hazard Against a Change-Point Alternative

In this article, we consider the change-point hazard rate model which arises quite commonly in mechanical or biological systems, which experience a high hazard rate early in their lifetime due to infant mortality and then a constant or steady hazard rate after the threshold time. We first derive the corresponding mean residual life function (MRLF) and observe that the MRLF is initially increasing and then constant. Here, we derive a test statistic for exponentiality against Increasing Initially then Constant Mean Residual Life (ICMRL). We also derive the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic and compare the power of the test with other existing tests such as likelihood ratio, Weibull, and Log gamma tests considered in the literature. The test performs quite well as compared to other alternatives studied.     

Empirical Likelihood Ratio Test for a Change-Point in Linear Regression Model

A nonparametric method based on the empirical likelihood is proposed to detect the change-point in the coefficient of linear regression models. The empirical likelihood ratio test statistic is proved to have the same asymptotic null distribution as that with classical parametric likelihood. Under some mild conditions, the maximum empirical likelihood change-point estimator is also shown to be consistent. The simulation results show the sensitivity and robustness of the proposed approach. The method is applied to some real datasets to illustrate the effectiveness.     

A comparative study on a permutation statistic

We studied asymptotic distribution and finite sample properties of a randomly weighted permutation statistic. The asymptotic normality and the finite sample simulations derived from our studies provided theoretical and numerical justifications for distributional assumption of many useful test statistics used in identifying spatial autocorrelations of mapped data. We compared a new method in computing the mean and the approximated variance of the randomly weighted D statistic, a special permutation statistic, with the Walter’s conditional method. In the numerical illustration of the method, we calculated the standardized values of the D statistic by subtracting the mean from the D statistic and dividing the difference by the standard deviation for the standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and the life expectancies among the 48 states of the continental USA. Spatial autocorrelations of the SMRs and the life expectancies were found to be statistically significant.     

Detecting Variance Change-Points for Blocked Time Series and Dependent Panel Data

This article proposes a class of weighted differences of averages (WDA) statistics to test and estimate possible change-points in variance for time series with weakly dependent blocks and dependent panel data without specific distributional assumptions. We derive the asymptotic distributions of the test statistics for testing the existence of a single variance change-point under the null and local alternatives. We also study the consistency of the change-point estimator. Within the proposed class of the WDA test statistics, a standardized WDA test is shown to have the best consistency rate and is recommended for practical use. An iterative binary searching procedure is suggested for estimating the locations of possible multiple change-points in variance, whose consistency is also established. Simulation studies are conducted to compare detection power and number of wrong rejections of the proposed procedure to that of a cumulative sum (CUSUM) based test and a likelihood ratio-based test. Finally, we apply the proposed method to a stock index dataset and an unemployment rate dataset. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

Comparing Two Survival Time Distributions: An Investigation of Several Weight Functions for the Weighted Logrank Statistic

In survival analysis, it is often of interest to test whether or not two survival time distributions are equal, specifically in the presence of censored data. One very popular test statistic utilized in this testing procedure is the weighted logrank statistic. Much attention has been focused on finding flexible weight functions to use within the weighted logrank statistic, and we propose yet another. We demonstrate our weight function to be more stable than one of the most popular, which is given by Fleming and Harrington, by means of asymptotic normal tests, bootstrap tests and permutation tests performed on two datasets with a variety of characteristics.     

A self-normalization test for a change-point in the shape parameter of a gamma distributed sequence

In this paper, a parametric change-point problem encountered in analyzing a gamma distributed sequence is considered. We propose a self-normalization based CUSUM type test statistic to detect the presence of a change-point, and obtain its limiting null distribution. The CUSUM-based procedure for detecting the location of this change-point is also given. At the same time, simulation results are provided, which show that our procedures are effective.     

Asymptotic study of the change-point mle in multivariate Gaussian families under contiguous alternatives

The problem of estimating an unknown change-point in the mean vector or covariance matrix of a sequence of independent multivariate Gaussian random variables is considered. Adapting the estimation methodology that Hinkley pursued for the case of abrupt changes, we develop theory for deriving the asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator of the change-point when the amount of change is a function of the sample size and goes to zero in a smooth fashion as the sample size goes to infinity, yielding a contiguous change-point model. Simulations have been performed to illustrate the closeness of the asymptotic distribution with the empirical distribution, and to evaluate its robustness to departures from normality for reasonable sample sizes as well as parameter changes. Finally, we apply the methodology to estimate the change-point in the daily log-returns data of BLS (BellSouth) and VZ (Verizon) from NYSE.     

Estimation Mean Change-Point in ARCH Models with Heavy-Tailed Innovations

The quest of the mean change-point in ARCH models with innovations in the domain of attraction of a κ-stable law appears to still be ongoing. We derive the asymptotic distribution of the residuals CUSUM of squares test (RCUSQ) statistic and find it depends on the stable index κ which is often typically unknown and difficult to estimate. Therefore, the subsampling method is proposed to detect changes without estimating κ. The tests are easy to use and are found to perform well in a Monte Carlo experiment.     

Using the Bootstrap to Test for Symmetry Under Unknown Dependence

This article considers tests for symmetry of the one-dimensional marginal distribution of fractionally integrated processes. The tests are implemented by using an autoregressive sieve bootstrap approximation to the null sampling distribution of the relevant test statistics. The sieve bootstrap allows inference on symmetry to be carried out without knowledge of either the memory parameter of the data or of the appropriate norming factor for the test statistic and its asymptotic distribution. The small-sample properties of the proposed method are examined by means of Monte Carlo experiments, and applications to real-world data are also presented.     

On testing the number of components in finite mixture models with known relevant component distributions

The limiting distribution of the log-likelihood-ratio statistic for testing the number of components in finite mixture models can be very complex. We propose two alternative methods. One method is generalized from a locally most powerful test. The test statistic is asymptotically normal, but its asymptotic variance depends on the true null distribution. Another method is to use a bootstrap log-likelihood-ratio statistic which has a uniform limiting distribution in [0,1]. When tested against local alternatives, both methods have the same power asymptotically. Simulation results indicate that the asymptotic results become applicable when the sample size reaches 200 for the bootstrap log-likelihood-ratio test, but the generalized locally most powerful test needs larger sample sizes. In addition, the asymptotic variance of the locally most powerful test statistic must be estimated from the data. The bootstrap method avoids this problem, but needs more computational effort. The user may choose the bootstrap method and let the computer do the extra work, or choose the locally most powerful test and spend quite some time to derive the asymptotic variance for the given model.     

Change-point mle in the rate of exponential sequences with application to Indonesian seismological data

In this paper, we derive explicit computable expressions for the asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood estimate of an unknown change-point in a sequence of independently and exponentially distributed random variables. First we state and prove a theorem that shows asymptotic equivalence of the change-point mle for the cases of both known and unknown parameters, respectively. Thereafter, the computational form of the asymptotic distribution of the change-point mle is derived for the case of known parameter situation only. Simulations show that the distribution for the known case applies very well to the case where the parameters are estimated. Further, it is seen from simulations that the derived unconditional mle shows better performance compared to the conditional solution of Cobb. Application of change detection methodology and the derived estimation methodology show strong support in favor the dynamic triggering hypothesis for seismic faults in Sumatra, Indonesia region.     

A modified likelihood ratio test for the mean direction in the von mises distribution

The likelihood ratio test (LRT) for the mean direction in the von Mises distribution is modified for possessing a common asymptotic distribution both for large sample size and for large concentration parameter. The test statistic of the modified LRT is compared with the F distribution but not with the chi-square distribution usually employed, Good performances of the modified LRT are shown by analytical studies and Monte Carlo simulation studies, A notable advantage of the test is that it takes part in the unified likelihood inference procedures including both the marginal MLE and the marginal LRT for the concentration parameter.     

Censored median regression and profile empirical likelihood

We implement profile empirical likelihood-based inference for censored median regression models. Inference for any specified subvector is carried out by profiling out the nuisance parameters from the “plug-in” empirical likelihood ratio function proposed by Qin and Tsao. To obtain the critical value of the profile empirical likelihood ratio statistic, we first investigate its asymptotic distribution. The limiting distribution is a sum of weighted chi square distributions. Unlike for the full empirical likelihood, however, the derived asymptotic distribution has intractable covariance structure. Therefore, we employ the bootstrap to obtain the critical value, and compare the resulting confidence intervals with the ones obtained through Basawa and Koul’s minimum dispersion statistic. Furthermore, we obtain confidence intervals for the age and treatment effects in a lung cancer data set.     

Testing for a change point in a sequence of exponential random variables with repeated values

Two test statistics are proposed for the change-point problem with repeated values when the data follow an exponential distribution. The properties of these two statistics have been studied and their asymptotic distributions under the alternative have been derived. The powers of the two test statistics are compared. Real-data examples are presented to illustrate the application of these tests.     

Testing for serial correlation in linear model with validation data

In this paper, we investigate the testing for serial correlation in a linear model with validation data, then we apply the empirical likelihood method to construct the test statistic and derive the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic under null hypothesis. Simulation results show that our method performs well both in size and power with finite same size.     

Testing for pairwise serial independence via the empirical distribution function

Built on Skaug and Tjøstheim's approach, this paper proposes a new test for serial independence by comparing the pairwise empirical distribution functions of a time series with the products of its marginals for various lags, where the number of lags increases with the sample size and different lags are assigned different weights. Typically, the more recent information receives a larger weight. The test has some appealing attributes. It is consistent against all pairwise dependences and is powerful against alternatives whose dependence decays to zero as the lag increases. Although the test statistic is a weighted sum of degenerate Cramér–von Mises statistics, it has a null asymptotic N (0, 1) distribution. The test statistic and its limit distribution are invariant to any order preserving transformation. The test applies to time series whose distributions can be discrete or continuous, with possibly infinite moments. Finally, the test statistic only involves ranking the observations and is computationally simple. It has the advantage of avoiding smoothed nonparametric estimation. A simulation experiment is conducted to study the finite sample performance of the proposed test in comparison with some related tests.