Asymptotic tests and monte carlo studies associated with the multiplicative interaction model

Several authors have proposed approximations to percentage points required for testing certain hypotheses associated with the multiplicative interaction model. Alternative approximations based on the asymptotic joint distribution of the characteristic roots of a noncentral Wishart matrix are proposed in this paper. The type I error rates of the resulting tests and the existing procedures are then compared using Monte Carlo methods.     

A HEURISTIC TECHNIQUE FOR TESTING FOR THE PRESENCE OF INTERACTION IN NONREPLICATED FACTORIAL EXPERIMENTS

Abstract  This paper suggests univariate and multivariate techniques for investigating interaction in nonreplicated factorial experiments. The tests can detect certain types of interaction, but they are not powerful against all possible alternative hypotheses. The two-way factorial experiment is discussed in some detail and an example is used to demonstrate the procedure. The procedure is compared to other tests for interaction. These comparisons show that the procedure can detect some types of interaction which other tests cannot. Likewise other tests can detect interaction this procedure cannot.     

Testing for efficiency and non-linearity in market and natural time series

Time series in traded markets such as currencies and securities involve supply/demand interaction, so they might be expected to contain distinctive and identifiable structures in comparison with data based on natural phenomena such as river flows or sunspots. This paper tests this proposition using standard econometric tests including variance ratios, modified rescaled range (R/S) ratios and BDS statistics together with non-linear prediction models. Four time series of each type (market or natural) are subject to a battery of tests for random walk and non-linear dependence. Surprisingly, the tests provide no reliable discrimination between the two types of series or reveal any embedded specification differences.     

Analysis of Variance by Randomization when Variances are Unequal

If there are significant factor and interaction effects with analysis of variance using ran-domization inference, they can be detected by tests that compare the F -statistics for the real data with the distributions of these statistics obtained by randomly allocating either the original observations or the residuals to the various factor combinations. Such tests involve the assumption that the effect of factors or interactions is to shift the observations for a factor combination by a fixed amount, without changing the amount of variation at that combination. In reality the expected amount of variation at each factor combination, as measured by the variance, may not be constant, which may upset the properties of the tests for the effects of factors and interactions. This paper discusses several possible methods for adjusting the randomization procedure to allow for this type of problem, including generalizations of methods that have been proposed for comparing the means of several samples when there is unequal variance but no factor structure. A simulation study shows that the best of the methods examined is one for which the randomized sets of data are designed to approximate the distributions of F -statistics when unequal variance is present.     

The impact of a preliminary test for interaction in a 2 × 2 factorial trial

Preliminary tests of significance on the crucial assumptions are often done before drawing inferences of primary interest. In a factorial trial, the data may be pooled across the columns or rows for making inferences concerning the efficacy of the drugs {simple effect) in the absence of interaction. Pooling the data has an advantage of higher power due to larger sample size. On the other hand, in the presence of interaction, such pooling may seriously inflate the type I error rate in testing for the simple effect.

A preliminary test for interaction is therefore in order. If this preliminary test is not significant at some prespecified level of significance, then pool the data for testing the efficacy of the drugs at a specified α level. Otherwise, use of the corresponding cell means for testing the efficacy of the drugs at the specified α is recommended. This paper demonstrates that this adaptive procedure may seriously inflate the overall type I error rate. Such inflation happens even in the absence of interaction.

One interesting result is that the type I error rate of the adaptive procedure depends on the interaction and the square root of the sample size only through their product. One consequence of this result is as follows. No matter how small the non-zero interaction might be, the inflation of the type I error rate of the always-pool procedure will eventually become unacceptable as the sample size increases. Therefore, in a very large study, even though the interaction is suspected to be very small but non-zero, the always-pool procedure may seriously inflate the type I error rate in testing for the simple effects.

It is concluded that the 2 × 2 factorial design is not an efficient design for detecting simple effects, unless the interaction is negligible.     

Nonparametric multiple comparison procedures for unbalanced two-way layouts

In this paper, we consider nonparametric multiple comparison procedures for unbalanced two-way factorial designs under a pure nonparametric framework. For multiple comparisons of treatments versus a control concerning the main effects or the simple factor effects, the limiting distribution of the associated rank statistics is proven to satisfy the multivariate totally positive of order two condition. Hence, asymptotically the proposed Hochberg procedure strongly controls the familywise type I error rate for the simultaneous testing of the individual hypotheses. In addition, we propose to employ Shaffer's modified version of Holm's stepdown procedure to perform simultaneous tests on all pairwise comparisons regarding the main or simple factor effects and to perform simultaneous tests on all interaction effects. The logical constraints in the corresponding hypothesis families are utilized to sharpen the rejective thresholds and improve the power of the tests.     

The effect of non-normal disturbances and conditional heteroskedasticity on multiple cointegration tests

!t is well-known that Johansen's multiple cointegration tests' results and those of Johansen and Juselius' tests for restricrions on cointegrating vectors and their weights have far-reaching implications for economic modelling and analysis. Therefore, it is important to ensure that the tests have desirable finite sample properties. Although the statistics are derived under Gaussian distribution,the asympotic results are derived under a much wider class of distributions. Using simulation, this paper investigates the effect of non-normal disturbances on these tests in finite samples. Further, ARCH/GARCH type conditional heteroskedasticity is present in many economic and financial time series. This paper examines the finite properties of the tests when the error term follows ARCH/GARCH type processes. From the evidence, it appears that researchers should not be overly concerned by the possibility of small departures from non-normality when using Johansen's suggested techniques even in finite samples. ARCH and GARCH effects may be more problematic, however. In particular it becomes more important ro test whether the restriction implicit in the integrated (or near-integrated) ARCH-type Drocess actually holds in time series for the application of the cointegraiion rank tests and the test for restrictions on cointegrating weights. The tests for restrictions on cointegrating vectors apper to be robust for non-normal errors and for all ARCH and GARCH type processes considered.     

Some multivariate goodness-of-fit tests based on data depth

Based on data depth, three types of nonparametric goodness-of-fit tests for multivariate distribution are proposed in this paper. They are Pearson’s chi-square test, tests based on EDF and tests based on spacings, respectively. The Anderson–Darling (AD) test and the Greenwood test for bivariate normal distribution and uniform distribution are simulated. The results of simulation show that these two tests have low type I error rates and become more efficient with the increase in sample size. The AD-type test performs more powerfully than the Greenwood type test.     

A DISTRIBUTION-FREE TEST FOR TWO-WAY LAYOUT1

Many nonparametric tests have been proposed for the hypothesis of no row (treatment) effect in a one-way layout design. Examples of such tests are Kruskal-Wallis H-test, Bhapkar's (1961) V-test and Deshpande's (1965) L-test. However not many tests are available for testing the same hypothesis in a two-way layout design without interaction. Perhaps the only “established” test is the one due to Friedman (1937). However, it applies to the case of one observation per cell only. In this paper, a new distribution-free test is proposed for the hypothesis of row effect in a two-way layout design. It applies to the case of several observations per cell, not necessarily equal. The asymptotic efficiency of the proposed test relative to other tests is studied.     

Goodness-of-fit test using residuals in infinite-order autoregressive models

In this paper we study the asymptotic behavior of the Bickel–Rosenblatt test in infinite-order autoregressive models. Under some mild conditions, the test statistic based on residuals is shown to have the same limiting distribution as that based on true iid errors. It is also proved that this result remains the same when the nuisance parameters in the model are to be estimated, which means that the Bickel–Rosenblatt test is easily applicable in composite hypothesis goodness-of-fit testing unlike the Kolmogorov–Smirnov type tests. The result of a simulation study is supplemented to verify the result of this paper.     

A Method for Analyzing Disease-Specific Mortality with Missing Cause of Death Information

In this paper, we examine a method for analyzing competing risks data where the failure type of interest is missing or incomplete, but where there is an intermediate event, and only patients who experience the intermediate event can die of the cause of interest. In some applications, a method called “log-rank subtraction” has been applied to these problems. There has been no systematic study of this methodology, though. We investigate the statistical properties of the method and further propose a modified method by including a weight function in the construction of the test statistic to correct for potential biases. A class of tests is then proposed for comparing the disease-specific mortality in the two groups. The tests are based on comparing the difference of weighted log-rank scores for the failure type of interest. We derive the asymptotic properties for the modified test procedure. Simulation studies indicate that the tests are unbiased and have reasonable power. The results are also illustrated with data from a breast cancer study.     

Predictive Inference,Causal Reasoning,and Model Assessment in Nonparametric Bayesian Analysis: A Case Study

This paper continuesour earlier analysis of a data set on acute ear infections insmall children, presented in Andreev and Arjas (1998). The maingoal here is to provide a method, based on the use of predictivedistributions, for assessing the possible causal influence whichthe type of day care will have on the incidence of ear infections.A closely related technique is used for the assessment of thenonparametric Bayesian intensity model applied in the paper.Two graphical methods, supported by formal tests, are suggestedfor this purpose.     

A New Method for Testing Interaction in Unreplicated Two-Way Analysis of Variance

For a two-way ANOVA table, with a single observation per cell, the standard approach is to assume that interaction between the two factors is negligible, and to base inferences about the main factors on the model without interaction. But there is no totally satisfactory method for testing if interaction can be ignored. The classical approach is to specify a functional form for the interaction terms, involving a small number of parameters, and then use an appropriate test. But, such tests have low power if the functional form is inappropriate. This has led researchers to propose tests which do not assume a specific form for the interactions. In this article, we present a new approach for testing interaction which also does not assume a specific form for the interaction. This approach is fairly simple and flexible, and its usefulness is illustrated with several examples. We also present a general result which shows that there is no test of interaction with good power properties against all types of interaction.     

Some empirical results on the two-way analysis of variance by ranks

Iman (1974) and Conover and Iman (1976) have shown by means of simulation studies that a rank transform, whereby the ordinary F-tests are applied to the ranks of the original observations in two-way experimental designs, presents a remarkably powerful method of analysis. In the present study it is shown that this rank transform is closely related to the procedure proposed by Lemmer and Stoker (1967) for the two-way analysis of variance. The main conclusions are that the Iman tests are generally slightly more powerful than those of Lemmer and Stoker, but that in the presence of interaction the latter tests for main effects are safer to use than the former because interaction tends to make the Iman tests for main effects significant even if no main effects exist.     

A TEST OF HOMOGENEITY AGAINST SCALE ALTERNATIVES USING SUBSAMPLE EXTREMA1

In this paper a new class of non-parametric tests for testing homogeneity of several populations against scale alternatives is proposed. For this, independent samples of fixed sizes are drawn from each population and from these samples, all possible sub-samples of the same size are drawn and their maxima and minima are computed. Using these extreme the class of tests is obtained. Tests of this type have been offered for the two-sample slippage problem by Kochar (1978). Under certain conditions, this class of tests is shown to be consistent against ‘difference in scale’ alternatives. The test has been compared with Bhapkar's V-test (1961), Deshpande's D-test (1965), Sugiura's D_rs-test (1965) and with a classical test given by Lehmann (1959, pp. 273–275). It is shown that some members of this proposed class of tests are more efficient than the first three tests in the case of uniform, Laplace and normal distributions, when the number of populations compared is small.     

Joint tests of non-nested models and general error specifications

This paper is concerned with joint tests of non-nested models and simultaneous departures from homoskedasticity, serial independence and normality of the disturbance terms. Locally equivalent alternative models are used to construct joint tests since they provide a convenient way to incorporate more than one type of departure from the classical conditions. The joint tests represent a simple asymptotic solution to the “pre-testing” problem in the context of non-nested linear regression models. Our simulation results indicate that the proposed tests have good finite sample properties.     

Exact tests for two-way symmetriccontingency tables

A two-way contingency table in which both variables have the same categories is termed a symmetric table. In many applications, because of the social processes involved, most of the observations lie on the main diagonal and the off-diagonal counts are small. For these tables, the model of independence is implausible and interest is then focussed on the off-diagonal cells and the models of quasi-independence and quasi-symmetry. For ordinal variables, a linear-by-linear association model can be used to model the interaction structure. For sparse tables, large-sample goodness-of-fit tests are often unreliable and one should use an exact test. In this paper, we review exact tests and the computing problems involved. We propose new recursive algorithms for exact goodness-of-fit tests of quasi-independence, quasi-symmetry, linear-by-linear association and some related models. We propose that all computations be carried out using symbolic computation and rational arithmetic in order to calculate the exact p-values accurately and describe how we implemented our proposals. Two examples are presented.     

Two-dimensional Kolmogorov-type goodness-of-fit tests based on characterisations and their asymptotic efficiencies

In this paper, new two-dimensional goodness-of-fit tests are proposed. They are of supremum type and are based on two different types of characterisations. The first type are those that involve functional equations that the distribution function satisfies, while the second type uses independence of some statistics. The asymptotics of the statistics is studied and Bahadur efficiencies of the tests against some close alternatives are calculated. In the process, a theorem on large deviations of Kolmogorov-type statistics has been extended to the multidimensional case.     

Comparison of powers and exact bahadur slopes of some tests for dimensionality in manova models

In this paper we consider test of dimensionality in MANOVA model. For this testing problem, the likelihood ratio (=LR) test, Lawley-Hotelling (=LH) type test and Bartlett-Nanda-Pillai (=BNP) type test are often used. We obtain the asymptotic expansions of powers of these tests under the local alternatives. Also Bahadur exact slopes of these tests are obtained. Based on these results, we obtain a unified opinion concerning comparison of LR test, LH type test and BNP type test.     

Monte carlo evidence on the robustness of conditional moment tests in tobit and probit models

This paper numerically examines the size robustness of various conditional moment tests in misspecified tobit and probit models. The misspecifications considered include the incorrect exclusion of regressors, ignored heteroskedasticity and false distributional assumptions. An important feature of the experimental design is that it is based on an existing empirical study and is more realistic than many simulation studies. The tests are seen to have mixed performance depending on both the original null hypothesis being tested and type of misspecification encountered.