Lp-estimators in ARCH models

For ergodic ARCH processes, we introduce a one-parameter family of L_p-estimators. The construction is based on the concept of weighted M-estimators. Under weak assumptions on the error distribution, the consistency is established. The asymptotic normality is proved for the special cases p=1 and 2. To prove the asymptotic normality of the L₁-estimator, one needs the existence of a density of the squares of the errors, whereas for the L₂-estimator the existence of fourth moments is assumed. The asymptotic covariance matrix of the estimator depends on the unknown parameter which can be substituted by consistent estimators. For the L₁-estimator we construct a kernel estimator for the unknown density of the square of the errors.     

Local Linear Estimation for Spatiotemporal Models Based on Least Absolute Deviation

When the data contain outliers or come from population with heavy-tailed distributions, which appear very often in spatiotemporal data, the estimation methods based on least-squares (L₂) method will not perform well. More robust estimation methods are required. In this article, we propose the local linear estimation for spatiotemporal models based on least absolute deviation (L₁) and drive the asymptotic distributions of the L₁-estimators under some mild conditions imposed on the spatiotemporal process. The simulation results for two examples, with outliers and heavy-tailed distribution, respectively, show that the L₁-estimators perform better than the L₂-estimators.     

On the trimmed mean and minimax-variance L-estimation in Kolmogorov neighbourhoods

We consider the properties of the trimmed mean, as regards minimax-variance L-estimation of a location parameter in a Kolmogorov neighbourhood K() of the normal distribution: We first review some results on the search for an L-minimax estimator in this neighbourhood, i.e. a linear combination of order statistics whose maximum variance in K_t() is a minimum in the class of L-estimators. The natural candidate – the L-estimate which is efficient for that member of K_t,() with minimum Fisher information – is known not to be a saddlepoint solution to the minimax problem. We show here that it is not a solution at all. We do this by showing that a smaller maximum variance is attained by an appropriately trimmed mean. We argue that this trimmed mean, as well as being computationally simple – much simpler than the efficient L-estimate referred to above, and simpler than the minimax M- and R-estimators – is at least “nearly” minimax.     

L 1-estimation for varying coefficient models

The varying coefficient model is a useful extension of linear models and has many advantages in practical use. To estimate the unknown functions in the model, the kernel type with local linear least-squares (L ₂) estimation methods has been proposed by several authors. When the data contain outliers or come from population with heavy-tailed distributions, L ₁-estimation should yield better estimators. In this article, we present the local linear L ₁-estimation method and derive the asymptotic distributions of the L ₁-estimators. The simulation results for two examples, with outliers and heavy-tailed distribution, respectively, show that the L ₁-estimators outperform the L ₂-estimators.     

On the ‘optimal’ density power divergence tuning parameter

The density power divergence, indexed by a single tuning parameter α, has proved to be a very useful tool in minimum distance inference. The family of density power divergences provides a generalized estimation scheme which includes likelihood-based procedures (represented by choice α=0 for the tuning parameter) as a special case. However, under data contamination, this scheme provides several more stable choices for model fitting and analysis (provided by positive values for the tuning parameter α). As larger values of α necessarily lead to a drop in model efficiency, determining the optimal value of α to provide the best compromise between model-efficiency and stability against data contamination in any real situation is a major challenge. In this paper, we provide a refinement of an existing technique with the aim of eliminating the dependence of the procedure on an initial pilot estimator. Numerical evidence is provided to demonstrate the very good performance of the method. Our technique has a general flavour, and we expect that similar tuning parameter selection algorithms will work well for other M-estimators, or any robust procedure that depends on the choice of a tuning parameter.     

Wavelet estimators for the derivatives of the density function from data contaminated with heteroscedastic measurement errors

Measurement errors occur in many real data applications. In this paper, the linear and the non linear wavelet estimators of the derivatives of the density function are constructed in the case of data contaminated with heteroscedastic measurement errors. We establish L_p risk performance of the estimators and show that they achieve fast convergence rates under quite general conditions.     

Deconvolution with supersmooth distributions

Nonparametric deconvolution problems require one to recover an unknown density when the data are contaminated with errors. Optimal global rates of convergence are found under the weighted L_p-loss (1 ≤ p ≤ ∞). It appears that the optimal rates of convergence are extremely low for supersmooth error distributions. To resolve this difficulty, we examine how high the noise level can be for deconvolution to be feasible, and for the deconvolution estimate to be as good as the ordinary density estimate. It is shown that if the noise level is not too high, nonparametric Gaussian deconvolution can still be practical. Several simulation studies are also presented.     

Bias-robust L-estimators of a scale parameter

We derive optimal bias-robust L-estimators of a scale parameter σ based on random samples from F(( ·?θ/σ), where θ and σ are unknown and F is an unknown member of a ε-contaminated neighborhood of a fixed symmetric error distribution F ₀. Within a very general class S of L-estimators which are Fisher-consistent at F, we solve for: (i) the estimator with minimax asymptotic bias over the ε-contamination neighborhood; and (ii) the estimator with minimum gross error sensitivity at F ₀ [the limiting case of (i) as ε → 0]. The solutions to problems (i) and (ii) are shown, using a generalized method of moment spaces, to be mixtures of at most two interquantile ranges. A graphical method is presented for finding the optimal bias-robust solutions, and examples are given.     

Consistency and Normality of M-Estimators in Partly Linear Models with Stochastic Adapted Errors

The robust M-estimators for the partly linear model under stochastic adapted errors are considered. It is shown that the M-estimator of parameter is asymptotically normal and the M-estimator of the nonparametric function achieves the optimal rate of convergence for nonparametric regression. Some known results are improved and generalized. Some simulations and a real data example are conducted to illustrate the proposed method.     

C14. Moments of the kolmogorov-smirnov one-sample statistic

In adaptive estimation, it is often considered that an estimator has made a mistake if the component estimator chosen for use is not the most efficient for the distribution sampled. Theoretical and simulation results point to a fallacy in this line of thought. The Monte Carlo study involves extension of the Princeton Swindle to distributions conditional on a location and scale-free statistic, and to the uniform. The results give a partial explanation for the sometimes surprising robustness of adaptive L-estimators.     

M-estimation in regression models for censored data

In this paper, we study M-estimators of regression parameters in semiparametric linear models for censored data. A class of consistent and asymptotically normal M-estimators is constructed. A resampling method is developed for the estimation of the asymptotic covariance matrix of the estimators.     

Multivariate τ-estimators for location and scatter

We discuss the robustness and asymptotic behaviour of τ-estimators for multivariate location and scatter. We show that τ-estimators correspond to multivariate M-estimators defined by a weighted average of redescending ψ-functions, where the weights are adaptive. We prove consistency and asymptotic normality under weak assumptions on the underlying distribution, show that τ-estimators have a high breakdown point, and obtain the influence function at general distributions. In the special case of a location-scatter family, τ-estimators are asymptotically equivalent to multivariate S-estimators defined by means of a weighted ψ-function. This enables us to combine a high breakdown point and bounded influence with good asymptotic efficiency for the location and covariance estimator.     

Nonlinear orthogonal series estimates for random design regression

Let (X,Y) be a pair of random variables with supp(X)⊆[0,1] and EY²<∞. Let m be the corresponding regression function. Estimation of m from i.i.d. data is considered. The L₂ error with integration with respect to the design measure μ (i.e., the distribution of X) is used as an error criterion.Estimates are constructed by estimating the coefficients of an orthonormal expansion of the regression function. This orthonormal expansion is done with respect to a family of piecewise polynomials, which are orthonormal in L₂(μ_n), where μ_n denotes the empirical design measure.It is shown that the estimates are weakly and strongly consistent for every distribution of (X,Y). Furthermore, the estimates behave nearly as well as an ideal (but not applicable) estimate constructed by fitting a piecewise polynomial to the data, where the partition of the piecewise polynomial is chosen optimally for the underlying distribution. This implies e.g., that the estimates achieve up to a logarithmic factor the rate n^−2p/(2p+1), if the underlying regression function is piecewise p-smooth, although their definition depends neither on the smoothness nor on the location of the discontinuities of the regression function.     

Higher order approximations by a two-stage procedure for a negative exponential distribution

This paper deals with the problem of fixed-width confidence interval estimation of the location μ of a negative exponential distribution with unknown scale σ. Suppose we have information on the scale parameter σ such that σ>σ_L where σ_L(>0) is known to the experimenter from past experiences. We propose a two-stage procedure and provide higher order asymptotic expansions of the expected sample size and the coverage probability.     

Minimax-variance L- and R-estimators of location

We consider the problem of minimax-variance, robust estimation of a location parameter, through the use of L- and R-estimators. We derive an easily checked necessary condition for L-estimation to be minimax, and a related sufficient condition for R-estimation to be minimax. Those cases in the literature in which L-estimation is known not to be minimax, and those in which R-estimation is minimax, are derived as consequences of these conditions. New classes of examples are given in each case. As well, we answer a question of Scholz (1974), who showed essentially that the asymptotic variance of an R-estimator never exceeds that of an L-estimator, if both are efficient at the same strongly unimodal distribution. Scholz raised the question of whether or not the assumption of strong unimodality could be dropped. We answer this question in the negative, theoretically and by examples. In the examples, the minimax property fails both for L-estimation and for R-estimation, but the variance of the L-estimator, as the distribution of the observation varies over the given neighbourhood, remains unbounded. That of the R-estimator is unbounded.     

Asymptotics for L1-estimators of regression parameters under heteroscedasticityY

We consider the asymptotic behaviour of L₁ -estimators in a linear regression under a very general form of heteroscedasticity. The limiting distributions of the estimators are derived under standard conditions on the design. We also consider the asymptotic behaviour of the bootstrap in the heteroscedastic model and show that it is consistent to first order only if the limiting distribution is normal.     

Cross-validation Revisited

Data-based choice of the bandwidth is an important problem in kernel density estimation. The pseudo-likelihood and the least-squares cross-validation bandwidth selectors are well known, but widely criticized in the literature. For heavy-tailed distributions, the L₁ distance between the pseudo-likelihood-based estimator and the density does not seem to converge in probability to zero with increasing sample size. Even for normal-tailed densities, the rate of L₁ convergence is disappointingly slow. In this article, we report an interesting finding that with minor modifications both the cross-validation methods can be implemented effectively, even for heavy-tailed densities. For both these estimators, the L₁ distance (from the density) are shown to converge completely to zero irrespective of the tail of the density. The expected L₁ distance also goes to zero. These results hold even in the presence of a strongly mixing-type dependence. Monte Carlo simulations and analysis of the Old Faithful geyser data suggest that if implemented appropriately, contrary to the traditional belief, the cross-validation estimators compare well with the sophisticated plug-in and bootstrap-based estimators.     

Exponential and polynomial tailbounds for change-point estimators

Let X_1n,…,X_nn be independent random elements with an unknown change point θ∈(0,1), that is X_in has a distribution ν₁ or ν₂, respectively, according to i⩽[nθ] or i>[nθ]. We propose an estimator θ_n of θ, which is defined as the maximizer of a weighted empirical process on (0,1). Finding upper bounds of polynomial and exponential type for the tails of nθ_n−[nθ], we are able to derive rates of almost sure convergence, of distributional convergence, of L_p-convergence and of convergence in the Ky-Fan- and in the Prokhorov-metric.     

Limiting behavior of the maximum of the partial sum for asymptotically negatively associated random variables under residual Cesàro alpha-integrability assumption

Asymptotically negative association is a special dependence structure. By relating such dependence condition to residual Cesàro alpha-integrability and to strongly residual Cesàro alpha-integrability, some L_p-convergence and complete convergence results of the maximum of the partial sum are derived, respectively. In addition, some of these conclusions are based on a new Rosenthal type inequality concerning asymptotically negatively associated random variables, which is of independent interest.