State-level personality and presidential vote share in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections

Recent research has examined how variation across the states in the “Big Five” personality trait taxonomy helps explain the proportion of votes the presidential candidates receive in the states, concluding that state personality traits had a direct effect on presidential vote share in the 1996, 2000, and 2004 presidential elections. The current study has three goals: First, to examine the influence of personality traits on Barack Obama's vote share in the 2008 and 2012 elections; second to test whether the influence of personality traits on vote share holds under stricter controls for political factors and white racial prejudice; and, third, to test for potential meditating effects of state-level political characteristics and white racial prejudice in linking state-level personality traits with Obama's vote share. The findings indicate that two state personality traits – conscientiousness and openness – had indirect effects on Obama's 2008 and 2012 vote share through their influence on state ideology, partisanship, and white racial prejudice.     

Strategic voting in the 1984 democratic presidential primaries

When casting their ballots in primary elections, voters usually vote in a straight-forward manner for the candidate of their preference. But sometimes sophisticated voters vote for a second or third choice who has a better chance of winning in the general election or even cross over to the opposition party to vote for a candidate who will be easier to defeat in the general election. This article assesses the amount and importance of such strategic voting in Democratic presidential primaries in 1984 using discriminate analysis.     

Gender differences in the behaviour and life circumstances of alcoholics' spouses

Ten spouses of female alcoholics and nineteen spouses of male alcoholics were studied concerning coping behaviour, hardship and psychiatric symptoms. In many respects, male and female spouses had similar characteristics of hardship and coping behaviour. Female spouses, however, compared with male spouses, had a tendency (p<0.1) towards more avoidant coping behaviour and more reported symptoms of depression (p<0.05), obsession/compulsion (p<0.05) and hostility (p<0.1). Forty per cent of the male spouses reported a current or previous drinking problem compared with 16% of the female spouses. In the female group the avoidant coping style was related to depressive, obsessive/compulsive and hostility symptom scores. Hardship symptoms were not related to coping style or mental symptoms.     

Modeling the rally event in presidential politics: Toward conceptual and methodological clarity

This research provides conceptual clarity both to the modeling of rally events in presidential politics by introducing the stimulus-cognitive response model and to the measurement of rally events by presenting the steps necessary for proper specification and empirical analysis using the time-series method. The utility of stimulus-cognitive response modeling in conjunction with time-series is demonstrated by an examination of the attempted assassination of President Ronald Reagan. Several of the specific findings are counterintuitive and have implications for the presidency-congress literature.     

Home prices and the 2008 presidential election: Evidence from state level data

The purpose of this paper is to examine the role of housing prices in the outcome of the 2008 U.S. presidential election. Based on data for the 50 states, this study postulates a multivariate model in which the impact of home values is exposed while controlling for other explanatory factors might have exerted independent effects on the Democratic victory. Results of estimation indicate a significant inverse effect of property price appreciation on Democratic votes.     

State political culture and support for Obama in the 2008 Democratic presidential primaries

Though ideologically similar, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton appealed to different types of voters in the 2008 Democratic presidential primaries and demographically the candidates’ support varied considerably. Relative to the demographics of the primary electorates, however, we find that state political culture played an outsized role in determining which candidate emerged victorious in a particular state. When the size of demographic groups in the 2008 Democratic primaries are utilized in ordinary least squares regression models as independent variables with state political characteristics and Daniel Elazar's state political culture typology, political culture proves to be an important determinant of the level of support given to Obama in a state. States that are characterized by a more moralistic political culture are more likely to have given Obama a greater share of the primary vote and states that are characterized by a more traditionalistic or individualistic culture were less likely to support Obama in the 2008 Democratic primaries.     

小农经济的政治传统与法国半总统制

根源于小农经济的集权政治传统对法国半总统制的形成具有深刻的影响。农耕文明传统深厚的国家的政治特点表现为轻民主价值的立法协商而重秩序价值的行政集权。法国议会制的发展之所以一波三折,无能低效,最终为具有集权特点的半总统制所取代,其深层原因,即在于深受小农生产方式制约的法国社会的组织和整合机制脆弱。议会不能有效融会和表达民意,因而难孚众望,国家意志的形成不得不更多依赖传统集权政治的整合机制。     

The electoral consequences of alienation: Nonvoting and protest voting in the 1992 presidential race

This article focuses on the context of the 1992 national elections in order to determine why certain alienated individuals chose to stay home on election day while others responded by voting for a third party Presidential candidate. Two dimensions of alienation, internal and external political inefficacy, are linked to lower levels of voting, as is consistent with previous research on voting behavior. In addition, we find that, among those who voted, those individuals who expressed political cynicism or external inefficacy were more likely to vote for Ross Perot. We conclude that, while many alienated individuals do not vote, the Perot candidacy in 1992 led certain alienated individuals to engage in “protest” voting by casting their vote for an unlikely winner in the presidential race.     

The green vote in presidential elections: Past performance and future promise

The electoral impact of the environment issue has been debated for years. Thus far, evidence regarding the issue's electoral impact has concentrated on the 1996 presidential election. Two of the three inquiries into that contest found that the environment had a significant impact on voters’ candidate choices. In an effort to clarify the environment's electoral impact, this research expands the inquiry to include five presidential elections, 1984 through 2000. Findings indicate that the environment had a significant impact in four of these five elections—all but in 2000. The research goes on to examine reasons for variability in the environment's impact, concluding that candidates who play the role of environmental villain/adversary have a surprisingly important role in the issue's electoral strength.     

Determinants of presidential position taking in Congress, 1949–1995

In this paper we seek to explain the activity presidential position taking on roll call votes in the House. Position taking may help presidents pursue their policy agendas, but time and available resources constrain their ability to take positions. Even though position taking is a discretionary presidential action, it occurs in the legislative arena and, thus, presidents must consider elements in both institutions as well as outside conditions when making this decision. Accordingly, we posit a multiple perspectives approach to explain the number of presidential positions on votes in the House. Our multivariate two-stage least squares regression reveals that variables from all three environments (executive, legislative and exogenous) within our multiple perspectives approach are necessary to adequately explain presidential position taking overall and when divided according to domestic and foreign policy positions.     

Ranking sets additively in decisional contexts: an axiomatic characterization

Ranking finite subsets of a given set X of elements is the formal object of analysis in this article. This problem has found a wide range of economic interpretations in the literature. The focus of the article is on the family of rankings that are additively representable. Existing characterizations are too complex and hard to grasp in decisional contexts. Furthermore, Fishburn (1996), Journal of Mathematical Psychology 40, 64–77 showed that the number of sufficient and necessary conditions that are needed to characterize such a family has no upper bound as the cardinality of X increases. In turn, this article proposes a way to overcome these difficulties and allows for the characterization of a meaningful (sub)family of additively representable rankings of sets by means of a few simple axioms. Pattanaik and Xu’s (1990), Recherches Economiques de Louvain 56, 383–390) characterization of the cardinality-based rule will be derived from our main result, and other new rules that stem from our general proposal are discussed and characterized in even simpler terms. In particular, we analyze restricted-cardinality based rules, where the set of “focal” elements is not given ex-ante; but brought out by the axioms.      

实践科学发展观须破除官本位

官本位是与民本位根本对立的价值取向,是实践科学发展观的重大障碍,它会危害到党和政府的形象和声誉及其执政行政的能力,会危害到党群和干群关系,会危害到民主和法制建设,会危害到经济建设和社会主义精神文明建设。在当前,官本位主要表现为官价值至上、官＂真理＂至上、官利益至上、官僚主义泛滥和官商勾结严重。官本位在当代中国还有很大的市场,有其深刻的社会历史根源和社会现实根源。要实践科学发展观,必须破除官本位意识,为此要完善制度安排,深化政治体制改革;加强政治伦理建设;大力发展社会生产力,不断完善社会主义市场经济体制。     

A Comparison of Some Distance-Based Choice Rules in Ranking Environments

We discuss the relationships between positional rules (such as plurality and approval voting as well as the Borda count), Dodgsons, Kemenys and Litvaks methods of reaching consensus. The discrepancies between methods are seen as results of different intuitive conceptions of consensus goal states and ways of measuring distances therefrom. Saaris geometric methodology is resorted to in the analysis of the consensus reaching methods.     

Immigration in the 2008 Virginia presidential election: A cultural issue remains puissant despite an economic crisis

In 2006 and 2007, many analysts expected that immigration would be one of the top domestic issues in the 2008 campaign. However, in the 2008 presidential general election, immigration issues were never a major topic between candidates John McCain and Barack Obama. This was partially because McCain has more moderate views toward immigration reform than the passionate anti-immigration faction of the Republican Party. Prior research suggests that an issue in a presidential campaign can remain influential even when the media and campaigns are not discussing or addressing the issue, even when the candidates or parties do not differ greatly on the issue. In a survey of Virginia residents conducted just before the November election, immigration attitudes were a differential factor between McCain and Obama.     

State of the Union addresses and presidential position taking: Do presidents back their rhetoric in the legislative arena?

Politicians and presidents are routinely criticized for the mismatch between their policy statements and their legislative actions. While a few studies explore presidents’ support for policy commitments made during their election campaigns, no study systematically examines this relationship for presidents throughout their terms. To determine whether presidents follow through on their policy statements, I examine presidential mentions of three policy areas in State of the Union addresses from 1953 to 2000 and presidents’ subsequent positions on floor votes in Congress. The results indicate that rhetorical attention to economic policy and foreign relations in these speeches increases the chances that presidents will take positions on legislation in these same areas, but there is a disconnect between the rhetoric and their actions on health and social welfare policy. I suggest that this difference can be attributed to their anticipation of success in each policy area because presidents do not want to attach themselves to legislative defeats.     

Parenting stress among US Army spouses during combat‐related deployments: the role of sense of coherence

The present study seeks to model the effects of parenting stress on contentment experienced by spouses of soldiers deployed to Iraq for long periods of time (n= 200). Using the ABC‐X model from family stress and resiliency theory, a path analysis determined that, in addition to parenting stress, the length of deployment and the ethnic background of the Army spouse also acted as contributing stress factors influencing not only contentment, but perception of family coping and the sense of coherence experienced by the spouse during long‐term deployments (mean = 4.6 months). The mean age of children in the home was found to have significant effect on sense of coherence in this particular sample of women. The influence of the stressors in the statistical model on life contentment was mostly ameliorated by sense of coherence (i.e. perception of comprehensibility, manageability and meaningfulness in daily life). In other words, spouses with higher sense of coherence experienced better contentment with their lives during deployments. The study also captures qualitative responses and provides several themes associated with daily experiences of Army spouses. Implications for both military and civilian social workers are discussed.     

Ranking Rates of Return to Education: Legitimacy and an Explicit Diagnostic

Rankings of internal rates of return to education have significantly influenced education expenditures within developing countries and lending priorities of multilateral institutions. It is widely suspected, however, that estimated education returns are subject to systematic bias. The direction and magnitude of this bias are hotly contested. This paper demonstrates that in the presence of systematic bias, idiosyncratic properties of the internal-rate-of-return mapping may cause a ranking reversal. An explicit analytical test of return-ranking legitimacy is developed and applied to select African and Asian countries.