Nonparametric Bayes estimation of a distribution function with truncated data

A truncation bias affects the observation of a pair of variables (X,Y), so that data are available only if Y ⩽ X. In such a situation, the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE) of the distribution function of Y may have unpleasant features (Woodroofe, Ann. Statist. 13 (1985) 163–177). As a possible alternative, a nonparametric Bayes estimator is obtained using a Dirichlet prior (Ferguson, Ann. Statist. 1 (1973) 209–230). Its frequentist asymptotic behavior is investigated and found to be the same as the asymptotic behavior of the NPMLE. The results are illustrated by an example, with astronomical data, where the NPMLE is clearly unacceptable.     

Sequential estimation for semiparametric models with application to the proportional hazards model

In this paper, we show that if the Euclidean parameter of a semiparametric model can be estimated through an estimating function, we can extend straightforwardly conditions by Dmitrienko and Govindarajulu [2000. Ann. Statist. 28 (5), 1472–1501] in order to prove that the estimator indexed by any regular sequence (sequential estimator), has the same asymptotic behavior as the non-sequential estimator. These conditions also allow us to obtain the asymptotic normality of the stopping rule, for the special case of sequential confidence sets. These results are applied to the proportional hazards model, for which we show that after slight modifications, the classical assumptions given by Andersen and Gill [1982. Ann. Statist. 10(4), 1100–1120] are sufficient to obtain the asymptotic behavior of the sequential version of the well-known [Cox, 1972. J. Roy. Statist. Soc. Ser. B (34), 187–220] partial maximum likelihood estimator. To prove this result we need to establish a strong convergence result for the regression parameter estimator, involving mainly exponential inequalities for both continuous martingales and some basic empirical processes. A typical example of a fixed-width confidence interval is given and illustrated by a Monte Carlo study.     

Density estimation for samples satisfying a certain absolute regularity condition

Let {ξ_i} be an absolutely regular sequence of identically distributed random variables having common density function f(x). Let H_k(x,y) (k=1, 2,…) be a sequence of Borel-measurable functions and f_n(x)=n^?1(H_n(x,ξ₁)+…+H_n(x,ξ_n)) the empirical density function. In this paper, the asymptotic property of the probability P(sup_x|f_n(x)?f(x)|>ε) (n→∞) is studied.     

Variance estimation with Chao's sampling scheme

We show that the Hájek (Ann. Math Statist. (1964) 1491) variance estimator can be used to estimate the variance of the Horvitz–Thompson estimator when the Chao sampling scheme (Chao, Biometrika 69 (1982) 653) is implemented. This estimator is simple and can be implemented with any statistical packages. We consider a numerical and an analytic method to show that this estimator can be used. A series of simulations supports our findings.     

Simultaneous estimation of several CDF’s: homogeneity constraint

Let {x_ij(1 ? j ? n_i)|i = 1, 2, …, k} be k independent samples of size n_j from respective distributions of functions F_j(x)(1 ? j ? k). A classical statistical problem is to test whether these k samples came from a common distribution function, F(x) whose form may or may not be known. In this paper, we consider the complementary problem of estimating the distribution functions suspected to be homogeneous in order to improve the basic estimator known as “empirical distribution function” (edf), in an asymptotic setup. Accordingly, we consider four additional estimators, namely, the restricted estimator (RE), the preliminary test estimator (PTE), the shrinkage estimator (SE), and the positive rule shrinkage estimator (PRSE) and study their characteristic properties based on the mean squared error (MSE) and relative risk efficiency (RRE) with tables and graphs. We observed that for k ? 4, the positive rule SE performs uniformly better than both shrinkage and the unrestricted estimator, while PTEs works reasonably well for k < 4.     

A stochastic restricted k–d class estimator

In this paper, we introduce a stochastic restricted k–d class estimator for the vector of parameters in a linear model when additional linear restrictions on the parameter vector are assumed to hold. The stochastic restricted k–d class estimator is a generalization of the ordinary mixed estimator and the k–d class estimator. We show that our new biased estimator is superior in the mean squared error matrix sense to the k–d class estimator [S. Sakall?o?lu and S. Kaçiranlar, A new biased estimator based on ridge estimation, Statist. Papers 49 (2008), pp. 669–689] and the stochastic restricted Liu estimator [H. Yang and J.W. Xu, An alternative stochastic restricted Liu estimator in linear regression, Statist. Papers 50 (2009), pp. 639–647]. Finally, a numerical example is given to show the theoretical results.     

Non-Gaussian limit distributions for U-statistics based on trimmed and Winsorized samples

Conditions ensuring the asymptotic normality of U-statistics based on either trimmed samples or Winsorized samples are well known [P. Janssen, R. Serfling, and N. Veraverbeke, Asymptotic normality of U-statistics based on trimmed samples, J. Statist. Plann. Inference 16 (1987), pp. 63–74; U-statistics on Winsorized and trimmed samples, Statist. Probab. Lett. 9 (1990), pp. 439–447]. However, the class of U-statistics has a much richer family of limiting distributions. This paper complements known results by providing general limit theorems for U-statistics based on trimmed or Winsorized samples where the limiting distribution is given in terms of multiple Ito–Wiener stochastic integrals.     

Expansions of the coverage probabilities of prediction region based on a shrinkage estimator

An expansion formula for the coverage probability of prediction region based on a shrinkage estimator proposed by Joshi [Joshi, V. M. (1967). Inadmissibility of the usual confidence sets for the mean of a multivariate normal population. Ann. Math. Statist., 38, 1868–1875.] is obtained. Its error bound is evaluated in terms of a function of an unknown parameter. Applying this result, three types of asymptotic expansions are derived. These expansions show inadmissibility of the usual prediction region.     

Robust estimation of multivariate location and shape

In this paper, we describe an overall strategy for robust estimation of multivariate location and shape, and the consequent identification of outliers and leverage points. Parts of this strategy have been described in a series of previous papers (Rocke, Ann. Statist., in press; Rocke and Woodruff, Statist. Neerlandica 47 (1993), 27–42, J. Amer. Statist. Assoc., in press; Woodruff and Rocke, J. Comput. Graphical Statist. 2 (1993), 69–95; J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 89 (1994), 888–896) but the overall structure is presented here for the first time. After describing the first-level architecture of a class of algorithms for this problem, we review available information about possible tactics for each major step in the process. The major steps that we have found to be necessary are as follows: (1) partition the data into groups of perhaps five times the dimension; (2) for each group, search for the best available solution to a combinatorial estimator such as the Minimum Covariance Determinant (MCD) — these are the preliminary estimates; (3) for each preliminary estimate, iterate to the solution of a smooth estimator chosen for robustness and outlier resistance; and (4) choose among the final iterates based on a robust criterion, such as minimum volume. Use of this algorithm architecture can enable reliable, fast, robust estimation of heavily contaminated multivariate data in high (> 20) dimension even with large quantities of data. A computer program implementing the algorithm is available from the authors.     

Two Wilson–Hilferty type approximations for the null distribution of the Blum,Kiefer and Rosenblatt test of bivariate independence

The Blum et al. (Ann. Math. Statist. 32 (1961) 485) test of bivariate independence, an asymptotic equivalent of Hoeffding's (Ann. Math. Statist. 19 (1948) 546) test, is consistent against all dependence alternatives. A concise tabulation of a well-considered approximation for the asymptotic percentiles of its null distribution is given in Blum et al. and a more complete selection of Monte Carlo percentiles, for samples of size 5 and larger, appears in Mudholkar and Wilding (J. Roy. Statist. Soc. 52 (2003) 1). However, neither tabulation is adequate for estimating p-values of the test. In this note we use a moment based analogue of the classical Wilson–Hilferty transformation to obtain two transformations of type T_n=(nB_n)^h_n. The transformations T_n are then used to construct and compare a Gaussian and a scaled chi-square approximation for the null distribution of nB_n. Both approximations have excellent accuracy, but the Gaussian approximation is more convenient because of its portability.     

Optimal locally robust M-estimates of regression

First, we show that many robust estimates of regression which depend only on the regression residuals (including M-, S-, Tau-, least median of squares-, least trimmed of squares- and some R-estimates) have infinite gross-error-sensitivity. More precisely, we show that the maximum-bias function of a large class of estimates, called residual admissible in Yohai and Zamar (Ann. Statist. 21, 1993, 1824–1842), is of order √ε near zero. Based on this finding we define a new robustness measure for estimates with B_T(ε) = o(ε^β), the contamination sensitivity of order β, which extends Hampel's gross error sensitivity for estimates with unbounded influence. We compute this measure for regression M-estimates with a general scale and show that β = 0.5 in this case. Then we solve a Hampel-like optimality problem, namely, one of minimizing the asymptotic variance subject to a bound on the contamination sensitivity of order β = 0.5, for estimates in this class. Finally, we show that a certain least α-quantile estimate has the smallest contamination sensitivity of order 0.5 among all residual admissible estimates. In the Gaussian case α = 0.683.     

On the asymptotic normality of the R-estimators of the slope parameters of simple linear regression models with associated errors

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this paper is to prove, under mild conditions, the asymptotic normality of the rank estimator of the slope parameter of a simple linear regression model with stationary associated errors. This result follows from a uniform linearity property for linear rank statistics that we establish under general conditions on the dependence of the errors. We prove also a tightness criterion for weighted empirical process constructed from associated triangular arrays. This criterion is needed for the proofs which are based on that of Koul [Behavior of robust estimators in the regression model with dependent errors. Ann Stat. 1977;5(4):681–699] and of Louhichi [Louhichi S. Weak convergence for empirical processes of associated sequences. Ann Inst Henri Poincaré Probabilités Statist. 2000;36(5):547–567].     

Asymptotics for an Adaptive Trimmed Likelihood Location Estimator

An asymptotic normality result is given for an adaptive trimmed likelihood estimator of location, which parallels the asymptotic normality result for the adaptive trimmed mean. The new result comes out of studying the adaptive trimmed likelihood estimator modelled parametrically by a normal family but then examining the behavior when the underlying distribution is in fact some F different from normal. The asymptotic variance of the adaptive estimator is equal to the asymptotic variance of the trimmed likelihood estimator at the optimal trimming proportion for the distribution F, subject to that trimming proportion being positive and F being suitably smooth.     

A new class of skew-symmetric distributions and related families

In this work, we investigate a new class of skew-symmetric distributions, which includes the distributions with the probability density function (pdf) given by g _α(x)=2f(x) G(α x), introduced by Azzalini [A class of distributions which includes the normal ones, Scand. J. Statist. 12 (1985), pp. 171–178]. We call this new class as the symmetric-skew-symmetric family and it has the pdf proportional to f(x) G _β(α x), where G _β(x) is the cumulative distribution function of g _β(x). We give some basic properties for the symmetric-skew-symmetric family and study the particular case obtained from the normal distribution.     

Approximation to the distribution of LAD estimators for censored regression by random weighting method

Powell (J. Econometrics 25 (1984) 303) considered censored regression model, and established the asymptotic normality of the least absolute deviation (LAD) estimator. But the asymptotic covariance matrices depend on the error density and are therefore difficult to estimate reliably. In the earlier papers, this difficulty may be solved by applying the bootstrap method (see, e.g., Hahn (J. Econometric Theory 11 (1995) 105); Bilias et al. (J. Econometrics 99 (2000) 373). In this paper we propose a random weighting method to approximate the distribution of the LAD estimator. The random weighting method was developed by Rubin (Ann. Statist. 9 (1981) 130), Lo (Ann. Statist. 15 (1987) 360), Tu and Zheng (Chinese J. Appl. Probab. Statist. 3 (1987) 340) with reference to some statistics such as the sample mean. Rao and Zhao (Sankhya 54 (1992) 323) applied random weighting method to approximate asymptotic distribution of M-estimators in regression models. In this paper we extend this method to the censored regression model.     

On blocks and runs estimators of the extremal index

Given a sample from a stationary sequence of random variables, we study the blocks and runs estimators of the extremal index. Conditions are given for consistency and asymptotic normality of these estimators. We show that moment restrictions assumed by Hsing (Stochast. Process. Appl. 37(1), 117–139; Ann. Statist. 21(4), 2043-2021) may be relaxed if a stronger mixing condition holds. The CLT for the runs estimator seems to be proven for the first time.     

Estimation of a scale parameter in mixture models with unknown location

Estimation of the scale parameter in mixture models with unknown location is considered under Stein's loss. Under certain conditions, the inadmissibility of the “usual” estimator is established by exhibiting better estimators. In addition, robust improvements are found for a specified submodel of the original model. The results are applied to mixtures of normal distributions and mixtures of exponential distributions. Improved estimators of the variance of a normal distribution are shown to be robust under any scale mixture of normals having variance greater than the variance of that normal distribution. In particular, Stein's (Ann. Inst. Statist. Math. 16 (1964) 155) and Brewster's and Zidek's (Ann. Statist. 2 (1974) 21) estimators obtained under the normal model are robust under the t model, for arbitrary degrees of freedom, and under the double-exponential model. Improved estimators for the variance of a t distribution with unknown and arbitrary degrees of freedom are also given. In addition, improved estimators for the scale parameter of the multivariate Lomax distribution (which arises as a certain mixture of exponential distributions) are derived and the robustness of Zidek's (Ann. Statist. 1 (1973) 264) and Brewster's (Ann. Statist. 2 (1974) 553) estimators of the scale parameter of an exponential distribution is established under a class of modified Lomax distributions.     

Profile Hellinger distance estimation

The successful application of the Hellinger distance approach to fully parametric models is well known. The corresponding optimal estimators, known as minimum Hellinger distance (MHD) estimators, are efficient and have excellent robustness properties [Beran R. Minimum Hellinger distance estimators for parametric models. Ann Statist. 1977;5:445–463]. This combination of efficiency and robustness makes MHD estimators appealing in practice. However, their application to semiparametric statistical models, which have a nuisance parameter (typically of infinite dimension), has not been fully studied. In this paper, we investigate a methodology to extend the MHD approach to general semiparametric models. We introduce the profile Hellinger distance and use it to construct a minimum profile Hellinger distance estimator of the finite-dimensional parameter of interest. This approach is analogous in some sense to the profile likelihood approach. We investigate the asymptotic properties such as the asymptotic normality, efficiency, and adaptivity of the proposed estimator. We also investigate its robustness properties. We present its small-sample properties using a Monte Carlo study.     

Point and confidence interval estimates for a global maximum via extreme value theory

The aim of this paper is to provide some practical aspects of point and interval estimates of the global maximum of a function using extreme value theory. Consider a real-valued function f:D→? defined on a bounded interval D such that f is either not known analytically or is known analytically but has rather a complicated analytic form. We assume that f possesses a global maximum attained, say, at u*∈D with maximal value x*=max _u  f(u)?f(u*). The problem of seeking the optimum of a function which is more or less unknown to the observer has resulted in the development of a large variety of search techniques. In this paper we use the extreme-value approach as appears in Dekkers et al. [A moment estimator for the index of an extreme-value distribution, Ann. Statist. 17 (1989), pp. 1833–1855] and de Haan [Estimation of the minimum of a function using order statistics, J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 76 (1981), pp. 467–469]. We impose some Lipschitz conditions on the functions being investigated and through repeated simulation-based samplings, we provide various practical interpretations of the parameters involved as well as point and interval estimates for x*.     

Minimax estimation of a lower-bounded scale parameter of a gamma distribution for scale-invariant squared-error loss

Let X have a gamma distribution with known shape parameter θr;aL and unknown scale parameter θ. Suppose it is known that θ ≥ a for some known a > 0. An admissible minimax estimator for scale-invariant squared-error loss is presented. This estimator is the pointwise limit of a sequence of Bayes estimators. Further, the class of truncated linear estimators C = {θ_ρ|θ_ρ(x) = max(a, ρ), ρ > 0} is studied. It is shown that each θ_ρ is inadmissible and that exactly one of them is minimax. Finally, it is shown that Katz's [Ann. Math. Statist., 32, 136–142 (1961)] estimator of θ is not minimax for our loss function. Some further properties of and comparisons among these estimators are also presented.