Decision Making and the Price Setting Newsvendor: Experimental Evidence

We present an experimental study of the price‐setting newsvendor problem, which extends the traditional framework by allowing the decision maker to determine both the selling price and the order quantity of a given item. We compare behavior under this model with two benchmark conditions where subjects have a single decision to make (price or quantity). We observe that subjects deviate from the theoretical benchmarks when they are tasked with a single decision. They also exhibit anchoring behavior, where their anchor is the expected demand when quantity is the decision variable and is the initial inventory level when price is the decision variable. When decision makers set quantity and price concurrently, we observe no significant difference between the normative (i.e., expected profit‐maximizing) prices and the decision makers’ price choices. Quantity decisions move further from the normative benchmarks (compared to when subjects have a single decision to make) when the ratio of cost to price is less than half. When this ratio is reversed, there is no significant difference between order levels in single‐ and multi‐task settings. In the multidecision framework, we also observe a tendency to match orders and expected demand levels, which subjects can control using prices.     

A real option theoretic fuzzy evaluation model for enterprise resource planning investment

The high failure rate of ERP implementation is due to a common pitfall that ERP projects are often enacted as merely investment into installation of IT infrastructure, rather than systematic planning of operation changes, business process re-engineering and a paradigm shift for the operation and management. To manage ERP investment in a changing environment for high payoff, this paper adopts a real option theoretic method. Fuzzy payoff valuation is introduced to deal with uncertainties in order to minimize the risk of failure. The proposed ERP evaluation model is geared towards small and medium enterprises. A case study is presented to validate the proposed fuzzy real options. The results indicate the potential of modeling ERP investment as “Expand”, “Contain” and “Abandon” options in different scenarios. The fuzzy real option model bestows a novel ex-ante cost analysis for justifying ERP investment in the implementation cycle.     

Mixed contracts for the newsvendor problem with real options and discrete demand

In this paper we consider the newsvendor model with real options under discrete demand. We consider a mixed contract where the retailer can order a combination of q units subject to the conditions in a classical newsvendor contract and Q real options on the same items. We provide a closed form solution to this mixed contract when the demand is discrete and study some of its properties. In particular we demonstrate that a mixed contract may be superior to a real option contract when a manufacturer has a bound on how much variance she is willing to accept.     

Revenue Management vs. Newsvendor Decisions: Does Behavioral Response Mirror Normative Equivalence?

We study and compare decision‐making behavior under the newsvendor and the two‐class revenue management models, in an experimental setting. We observe that, under both problems, decision makers deviate significantly from normative benchmarks. Furthermore, revenue management decisions are consistently higher compared to the newsvendor order quantities. In the face of increasing demand variability, revenue managers increase allocations; this behavior is consistent with normative patterns when the ratio of the selling prices of the two customer segments is less than 1/2, but is its exact opposite when this ratio is greater than 1/2. Newsvendors' behavior with respect to changing demand variability, on the other hand, is consistent with normative trends. We also observe that losses due to leftovers weigh more in newsvendor decisions compared to the revenue management model; we argue that overage cost is more salient in the newsvendor problem because it is perceived as a direct loss, and propose this as the driver of the differences in behavior observed under the two problems.     

Using partially observed Markov processes to select optimal termination time of TV shows

This paper presents a method for optimal control of a running television show. The problem is formulated as a partially observed Markov decision process (POMDP). A show can be in a “good” state, i.e., it should be continued, or it can be in a “bad” state and therefore it should be changed. The ratings of a show are modeled as a stochastic process that depends on the show's state. An optimal rule for a continue/change decision, which maximizes the expected present value of profits from selling advertising time, is expressed in terms of the prior probability of the show being in the good state. The optimal rule depends on the size of the investment in changing a show, the difference in revenues between a “good” and a “bad” show and the number of time periods remaining until the end of the planning horizon. The application of the method is illustrated with simulated ratings as well as real data.     

Price-setting newsvendor with strategic consumers

We consider a newsvendor who sells a single product over a single season with the objective of determining both the selling price and stock quantity to maximize the expected profit. The customers are strategic and we consider two demand cases: additive and multiplicative. For each case, we derive the newsvendor׳s optimal decisions and demonstrate that neglecting the price-sensitivity of demand leads the newsvendor to make sub-optimal decisions. Moreover, we show that under certain conditions, strategic consumer behavior may positively affect the newsvendor׳s optimal expected profit in the additive demand case.     

在线逆向拍卖期权和单方支付契约下的供应链协调机制分析

根据报童模型和信息揭示原理建立了在线逆向拍卖期权和单方支付契约下生产商、销售商和系统的利润模型。通过对模型的优化得到两种电子佣金制度下的最优期权订购量。比较最优期权订购量和系统最优生产容量,分析了不同电子佣金制度及期权和单方支付契约类型下供应链协调特征。得到以下结论:对于具有单季节随机市场需求特征产品的期权和单方支付契约拍卖中,若生产商执行单方支付,系统不能被协调。若销售商执行单方支付,系统的协凋与电子佣金的制度有关;在赢得契约生产商支付电子佣金的制度下,最利于系统的协调和利润的分配。     

Supply Chain Contract Design: Impact of Bounded Rationality and Individual Heterogeneity

In this article, we model various forms of non‐optimizing behavior in a newsvendor setting, including biases such as recency, reinforcement, demand chasing, and anchoring, as well as unsystematic decision errors. We assume that a newsvendor may evaluate decisions by examining both past outcomes and future expected payoffs. Our model is motivated by laboratory observations under several types of supply chain contracts. Ordering decisions are found to follow multi‐modal distributions that are dependent on contract structures and incentives. We differ from previous research by using statistics to determine which behavioral factors are applicable to each decision maker. A great deal of heterogeneity was discovered, indicating the importance of calibrating a contract to the individual. Our analysis also shows that the profit performance and the effectiveness of co‐ordinating contracts can be affected by non‐optimizing behaviors significantly. We conclude that, in addition to the aggregate order quantities, the decision distributions should be considered in designing contracts.     

The price-setting newsvendor with service and loss constraints

Current performance measurement systems consider not only financial measures, like costs and profits, but also non-financial indicators with respect to customer service, quality and flexibility. Using the newsvendor model, we analyse the respective influence of these possibly conflicting performance measures on important operations and marketing decisions, for instance the order quantity and the selling price of a product. As in the classical newsvendor model for price-independent as well as price-dependent demand distribution, the objective of the firm is to maximise expected profit. In this paper, we also consider a service constraint—a lower bound for the level of product availability—and a loss constraint—an upper bound for the probability of a loss occurring. For both models, we provide conditions for the existence of solutions. We then analyse the influence of demand variability using a set of conditions specifying the quantiles of the predetermined performance measures: a higher variability of demand implies a smaller admissible region of the decision variables. In the price-independent case, the optimal solution has a control-limit structure: the optimal order quantity is thus given either by the classical newsvendor solution or by the control-limits corresponding to the constraints. In the price-setting model with multiplicative demand, this structure is used to check whether small admissible prices are determined by the service constraint or by the loss constraint. Using these structural results, a procedure is developed to more easily enable the computation of the optimal values of the order quantity, selling price and expected profit.     

基于预期的报童问题研究

Koszegi与Rabin认为参照点往往由决策者的理性预期确定，本文选取报童的预期作为参照点，利用参照依赖偏好理论对报童问题进行了研究。研究发现，基于预期的报童的最优订货量不仅与货物销售的概率分布、价格等有关还与报童的损失厌恶程度有关。如果报童是损失厌恶的，报童的订货量要小于经典报童问题的订货量；反之，报童的订货量则大于经典报童问题的订货量，该结论与大部分实证结果是一致的。最后，用算例来验证了文中有关结论的正确性。     

Multi-choice goal programming

The situation of multi-choice aspiration levels (MCAL) may exist in many decision/management problems. However, the problem cannot be solved by current goal programming (GP) techniques. In order to improve the utility of GP and solve the MCAL problem, this paper proposes a new idea for programming the MCAL problem. The proposed method allows decision-makers (DMs) to set multiple aspiration levels for their problems in which “the more/higher is better” and “the less/lower is better” in the aspiration levels are addressed. In addition, illustrative examples are given to demonstrate the correctness of the proposed model.     

An extension of the Electre I method for group decision-making under a fuzzy environment

Many real-world decision problems involve conflicting systems of criteria, uncertainty and imprecise information. Some also involve a group of decision makers (DMs) where a reduction of different individual preferences on a given set to a single collective preference is required. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a widely used decision methodology that can improve the quality of group multiple criteria decisions by making the process more explicit, rational and efficient. One family of MCDA models uses what is known as “outranking relations” to rank a set of actions. The Electre method and its derivatives are prominent outranking methods in MCDA. In this study, we propose an alternative fuzzy outranking method by extending the Electre I method to take into account the uncertain, imprecise and linguistic assessments provided by a group of DMs. The contribution of this paper is fivefold: (1) we address the gap in the Electre literature for problems involving conflicting systems of criteria, uncertainty and imprecise information; (2) we extend the Electre I method to take into account the uncertain, imprecise and linguistic assessments; (3) we define outranking relations by pairwise comparisons and use decision graphs to determine which action is preferable, incomparable or indifferent in the fuzzy environment; (4) we show that contrary to the TOPSIS rankings, the Electre approach reveals more useful information including the incomparability among the actions; and (5) we provide a numerical example to elucidate the details of the proposed method.     

A robustness framework for monitoring real options under uncertainty

This paper presents a problem structuring methodology to assess real option decisions in the face of unpredictability. Based on principles of robustness analysis and scenario planning, we demonstrate how decision-aiding can facilitate participation in projects setting and achieve effective decision making through the use of real options reasoning. We argue that robustness heuristics developed in earlier studies can be practical proxies for real options performance, hence indicators of efficient flexible planning. The developed framework also highlights how to integrate real options solutions in firms’ strategic plans and operating actions. The use of the methodology in a location decision application is provided for illustration.     

Mean–variance analysis of the newsvendor model with stockout cost

We study the risk-averse newsvendor model with a mean–variance objective function. We show that stockout cost has a significant impact on the newsvendor's optimal ordering decisions. In particular, with stockout cost, the risk-averse newsvendor does not necessarily order less than the risk-neutral newsvendor. We illustrate this finding analytically for the case where the demand follows the power distribution.     

The newsvendor problem with barter exchange

Barter exchange, as an alternative to move distressed inventory, has become increasingly popular in business. Many companies barter their unsold product for the product they need via barter exchange platforms at full prices. In this paper we consider the newsvendor problem with the barter exchange option. A retailer (the newsvendor) facing stochastic demand not only sells its product, but also buys other product that it needs from the market. It either trades its unsold product for the product it needs on a barter platform or disposes of its unsold product at discounted prices at the end of the selling season like in the classical newsvendor model. We derive the retailer’s optimal order quantity, then analytically and numerically examine the impacts of barter on the retailer’s inventory decisions and profit. We find that barter exchange can help the retailer to manage demand uncertainty and improve profit. The optimal order quantity decreases with barter commission and barter uncertainty, while increases with demand uncertainty and the value of the product that the retailer needs. Barter is more advantageous with lower barter commission, larger demand uncertainty, lower barter uncertainty, and higher value of the product it needs.     

Eight Motivational Forces and Voluntary Turnover: A Theoretical Synthesis with Implications for Research

In this study, we synthesize, from the attitude and turnover literatures, a framework of eight (8) distinctive motives, or “Forces”. We then illustrate how the “8 Forces” framework can be utilized by turnover researchers as clarification of reported reasons for turnover, as causal mediators of turnover predictors, and as factors related to the type of turnover decision process. Finally, we discuss further implications of this framework.     

The Newsvendor Model with Consumer Search Costs

We study the newsvendor problem when consumers are heterogeneous either in their valuations of the newsvendor's product, in their valuations of an outside option available to them, or in both valuations. In this context, we observe that the outside option, which represents the value that a given consumer associates with choosing not to purchase the newsvendor's product, may be interpreted as a search cost. Taking into consideration whether consumers' valuations differ on either one dimension of heterogeneity or on both dimensions, we develop a framework for classifying newsvendor models that incorporate demand‐management effects. In particular, we show that this framework includes both the newsvendor model with price‐dependent demand and the newsvendor model with endogenous demand as special cases. In addition to making a conceptual contribution by developing and drawing insights from this framework, we make technical contributions by providing more general sufficient conditions under which the underlying optimization problems are well behaved.     

A technical note on “A fuzzy set approach for R&D portfolio selection using a real options valuation model” by Wang and Hwang (2007)

In this paper, three critical issues with the paper “A fuzzy set approach for R&D portfolio selection using a real options valuation model”, coauthored by Wang and Hwang and published in Omega 2007 are addressed. Shortcomings of the original work are highlighted and corrective measures to improve the approach are proposed.     

Entscheidungsverhalten von Kunden in Mass Customization-Systemen

Sequential choice processes are ubiquitous in consumer decision making. In each attribute decision, consumers are often faced with different numbers of options which they must trade off in order to make the best possible choice. Thereby, complicated high variety choices at the beginning of a choice process produce a larger trade-off conflict and, thus, initially a greater mental depletion than more simple low variety choices. We examine the strength of mental depletion in sequential choices on individuals’ perceived attractiveness of the firm’s recommended default option at a target choice. We show that consumers who are confronted with difficult high variety choices early in the decision sequence followed by low variety choices initially deplete more than consumers who encounter exactly the same attribute decisions in reverse. As a result, depleted consumers are more likely to fall prey to the recommended default or some perceptually focal options close to the default anchor at target choice succeeding a sequence of decisions.     

Impulse Balance and Multiple‐Period Feedback in the Newsvendor Game

Human subjects in the newsvendor game place suboptimal orders: orders are typically between the expected profit‐maximizing quantity and mean demand (“pull‐to‐center bias”). In previous work, we have shown that impulse balance equilibrium (IBE), which is based on a simple ex post rationality principle along with an equilibrium condition, can predict ordering decisions in the laboratory. In this study, we extend IBE to standing orders and multiple‐period feedback and show that it predicts—in line with previous findings—that constraining newsvendors to make a standing order for a sequence of periods moves the average of submitted orders toward the optimum.