Probabilistic dominance criteria for comparing uncertain alternatives: A tutorial

This paper is a tutorial which demonstrates the current state-of-the-art methods for incorporating risk into project selection decision making. The projects under consideration might be R&D, IT, or other capital expenditure programs. We will show six decision making methods: 1. mean-variance (MV), 2. mean-semivariance, 3. mean-critical probability, 4. stochastic dominance, 5. almost stochastic dominance (ASD), and 6. mean-Gini. We will also describe the assumptions about the risk attitudes of the decision maker which are associated with each of the techniques. While all these methods have been previously applied elsewhere, this is the first paper which shows all of their applications in the project selection context, together with their interrelationships, strengths and weaknesses. We have applied all six techniques to the same group of five hypothetical projects and evaluated the resulting nondominated sets. Among the methods reviewed here, stochastic dominance is recommended because it requires the least restrictive assumptions. ASD and mean-Gini are recommended when stochastic dominance is not practical or when it does not yield definitive choices. MV, mean-semivariance, and mean-critical probability are shown to be flawed.     

Risk analysis of estimates for cost of quality in supply chain: a case study

Risk analysis for Cost of Quality (CoQ) in supply chain has not been adequately researched as evidenced in the literature. This paper attempts to analyse risk involved in estimating elements of CoQ in the internal supply chain of an integrated aluminium manufacturing company. We have applied grounded theory methodology on accounting codes of the case company primarily to bring out various elements of CoQ in its internal supply chain. They are categorized as ‘cost of prevention’, ‘cost of defective inputs’, ‘cost of defect in process’, and ‘cost of defect in output’. These elements are considered to be risky due to availability of partial information in past records of accounts while applying grounded theory methodology. In order to estimate the range and probabilities of all possible outcomes of various categories CoQ in the supply chain, Monte Carlo simulation has been used. The results have facilitated decision makers in strategic total quality management.     

A classification approach based on the outranking model for multiple criteria ABC analysis

The multiple criteria ABC analysis is widely used in inventory management, and it can help organizations to assign inventory items into different classes with respect to several evaluation criteria. Many approaches have been proposed in the literature for addressing such a problem. However, most of these approaches are fully compensatory in multiple criteria aggregation. This means that an item scoring badly on one or more key criteria could be placed in good classes because these bad performances could be compensated by other criteria. Thus, it is necessary to consider the non-compensation in the multiple criteria ABC analysis. To the best of our knowledge, the ABC classification problem with non-compensation among criteria has not been studied sufficiently. We thus propose a new classification approach based on the outranking model to cope with such a problem in this paper. However, the relational nature of the outranking model makes the search for the optimal classification solution a complex combinatorial optimization problem. It is very time-consuming to solve such a problem using mathematical programming techniques when the inventory size is large. Therefore, we combine the clustering analysis and the simulated annealing algorithm to search for the optimal classification. The clustering analysis groups similar inventory items together and builds up the hierarchy of clusters of items. The simulated annealing algorithm searches for the optimal classification on different levels of the hierarchy. The proposed approach is illustrated by a practical example from a Chinese manufacturer. Furthermore, we validate the performance of the approach through experimental investigation on a large set of artificially generated data at the end of the paper.     

Using data envelopment analysis for the assessment of technical efficiency of units with different specialisations: An application to agriculture

In this paper we consider the use of data envelopment analysis (DEA) for the assessment of efficiency of units whose output profiles exhibit specialisation. An example of this is found in agriculture where a large number of different crops may be produced in a particular region, but only a few farms actually produce each particular crop. Because of the large number of outputs, the use of conventional DEA models in such applications results in a poor efficiency discrimination. We overcome this problem by specifying production trade-offs between different outputs, relying on the methodology of Podinovski (J Oper Res Soc 2004;55:1311–22). The main idea of our approach is to relate various outputs to the production of the main output. We illustrate this methodology by an application of DEA involving agricultural farms in different regions of Turkey. An integral part of this application is the elicitation of expert judgements in order to formulate the required production trade-offs. Their use in DEA models results in a significant improvement of the efficiency discrimination. The proposed methodology should also be of interest to other applications of DEA where units may exhibit specialization, such as applications involving hospitals or bank branches.