A hybrid ARIMA and support vector machines model in stock price forecasting

Traditionally, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model has been one of the most widely used linear models in time series forecasting. However, the ARIMA model cannot easily capture the nonlinear patterns. Support vector machines (SVMs), a novel neural network technique, have been successfully applied in solving nonlinear regression estimation problems. Therefore, this investigation proposes a hybrid methodology that exploits the unique strength of the ARIMA model and the SVMs model in forecasting stock prices problems. Real data sets of stock prices were used to examine the forecasting accuracy of the proposed model. The results of computational tests are very promising.     

Promotion Planning and Supply Chain Contracting in a High–Low Pricing Environment

Demand forecast errors threaten the profitability of high–low price promotion strategies. This article shows how to match demand and supply effectively by means of two‐segment demand forecasting and supply contracts. We find that demand depends on the path of past retail prices, which leads to only a limited number of reachable demand states. However, forecast errors cannot be entirely eliminated because competitive promotions entail some degree of random (i.e., last‐minute) pricing. A hedging approach can be deployed to distribute demand risk efficiently over multiple promotional campaigns and within the supply chain. A retailer that employs a portfolio of forward, option, and spot contracts can avoid both stockouts and excess inventories while achieving the first‐best solution and Pareto improvements. We provide an improved forecasting method as well as stochastic programs to solve for optimal production and purchasing policies such that the right amount of inventory is available at the right time. By connecting a stockpiling model of demand with the supply side, we derive insights on optimal risk management strategies for both manufacturers and retailers in a market environment characterized by frequent price promotions and multiple discount levels. We employ a data set of the German retail market for a key generator of store traffic—namely, diapers.     

Locations and vehicle routing designs of physical distribution systems

The design of a physical distribution system (PDS) involves the determination of the number and locations of distribution centres, estimation of required vehicle numbers and design of vehicle routings. Due to the enormous numbers of possible combinatorial designs of the system, it is difficult to obtain an optimal design in acceptable computation effort on many occasions. In this paper, a new solution framework for the design of PDS by implementing the genetic algorithm (GA) is presented. With the characteristic of simultaneous optimization of a large population of configuration, the proposed methodology has been proved to be an extremely efficient optimizer. In the experimental simulation conducted in this paper, it also indicates this approach can provide a near-optimal solution to the design of PDS. To analyse the growth and decay of many schemas contained in the population, the effects of the operation of reproduction, crossover and mutation on the schema are studied. The simulation evaluation about the system performance and genetic parameters is presented along with the discussions at the end of this paper.     

Decision support tool for lean product and process development

Lean and concurrent engineering (CE) are widely acknowledged business process improvement strategies. These strategies can improve processes, reduce costs, and cut waste enabling organisations to remain competitive. Lean manufacturing offers an enterprise-wide methodology that improves reliability and flexibility while reducing lead-times and inventory carrying costs. Companies in manufacturing and service sectors are focusing on integrating lean manufacturing methodology with other applications, so that, all their systems and processes are aligned. This article proposes a CE framework based on application of information technology and object-oriented methodology for lean manufacturing. This approach expected to give manufacturing companies an extra edge in today's competitive market. A case study is presented in this article to demonstrate the effectiveness of CE framework in a machine tool manufacturing company. CE practice was adopted for new products, to align the systems and processes of the company. Product development lead-time was found to decrease by more than 50% compared to similar development projects carried out by the company. The need for rework was found to be negligible and the development cost was reduced considerably.     

Carbon price forecasting with a novel hybrid ARIMA and least squares support vector machines methodology

In general, due to inherently high complexity, carbon prices simultaneously contain linear and nonlinear patterns. Although the traditional autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model has been one of the most popular linear models in time series forecasting, the ARIMA model cannot capture nonlinear patterns. The least squares support vector machine (LSSVM), a novel neural network technique, has been successfully applied in solving nonlinear regression estimation problems. Therefore, we propose a novel hybrid methodology that exploits the unique strength of the ARIMA and LSSVM models in forecasting carbon prices. Additionally, particle swarm optimization (PSO) is used to find the optimal parameters of LSSVM in order to improve the prediction accuracy. For verification and testing, two main future carbon prices under the EU ETS were used to examine the forecasting ability of the proposed hybrid methodology. The empirical results obtained demonstrate the appeal of the proposed hybrid methodology for carbon price forecasting.     

An examination of the ISO 9001:2000 standard and its influence on the integration of management systems

Abstract

Analysis of the literature and examination of the various models of integration and testing in the field, have revealed five key issues relating to management system integration. This paper examines the recently published ISO 9001 : 2000 quality management system standard to see how it addresses these issues, under the headings of compatibility, scope and organizational culture. The examination reveals that while compatibility with the ISO 14001 and OHSAS 18001 standards has been improved in some areas, a different approach and model of a management system has been used. The paper suggests that differences in the scope of the standards are also likely to give rise to different sub-cultures which will hinder integration, and scope and culture are more important than compatibility. This leads the authors to conclude that new models of integration should be based on an approach and definitions which can be used in any management system, as well as an integrated one. Models of an integrated management system should also emphasize the need for no significant differences in the scope of the integrated systems, and a strong culture which supports the main requirements of TQM.     

Flexible reasoning using sensible agent-based systems: A case study in job flow scheduling

Planning and control systems for highly dynamic and uncertain manufacturing environments require adaptive flexibility and decision-making capabilities. Modern distributed manufacturing systems assess the utility of planning and executing solutions for both system goals (e.g. minimize manufacturing production time for all parts or minimize WIP) and local goals (e.g. expedite part A production schedule or maximize machine X utilization). Sensible Agents have the ability to alter their autonomy levels to choose among a set of decision models in order to handle the differences between local and system goals. In this paper, Sensible Agents are applied to a production planning and control problem in the context of job shop scheduling and decision model theory. Sensible Agents provide for trade-off reasoning mechanisms among system and local utilities that are flexible and responsive to an agent's abilities, situational context and position in the organizational structure of the system.     

Incorporating Price and Replacement Purchases in New Product Diffusion Models for Consumer Durables*

The article presents theoretical and empirical research findings which incorporate price and replacement purchases in new product diffusion models. On the theoretical side, this paper characterizes, qualitatively, optimum pricing policies for new products. Possible entry of rivals is not considered, but repeat sales, cost learning dynamics and discounting of future profit streams are allowed. Theoretical research findings suggest that the inclusion of repeat purchases in the diffusion model significantly changes the derived optimal pricing policy even if replacements were not price dependent. On the empirical side, alternative first purchase and repeat purchase models have been estimated and compared using nonlinear procedures. The diffusion data analyzed is related to nine consumer durables. Empirical research findings suggest that, for the considered product categories, diffusion is basically an imitative process, price can affect first and replacement purchases, and unit production cost is a decreasing function of cumulative first purchases. Managerial implications of the research findings are also discussed.     

Scrutinising the interplay between governance and resilience in supply chain management: A systems thinking framework

Supply chain disruptions recurrently challenge end-to-end operations owing to the ambiguous understanding of the role of governance in impacting supply network resilience. This paper scrutinises the relevant literature to understand the plethora of interpretations in supply chain governance and resilience while further providing a new perspective on the representation of the interplay between governance and resilience in supply chains. In this regard, the Systems Thinking lens is adopted to pull together the typologies and constructs of supply chain governance and resilience from the literature. Methodologically, System Dynamics modelling principles are leveraged to capture the underpinning structural interdependencies in a causal loop diagram. The study reveals that endogenous and exogenous supply chain governance processes and mechanisms support the intrinsic and extrinsic resilience in networks. Overall, this research contributes to the supply chain risk management domain by synthesising the interplay between governance and resilience, identifying pertinent typologies, and articulating research propositions that can inform decision-making at policy and management levels.     

Toyota in the 21st century in Asian countries: Information exchange system and best mix

This article explains the general nature of the business style of Toyota management strategy, its specific performance, and its development in China. It is quite difficult to find specific revolutionary policies and unusual strategies for the success of the Toyota Motor Corporation.     

Utilizing job resources: Qualitative evidence of the roles of job control and social support in problem solving

Abstract

In resource-based models of job design, job resources, such as control and social support, are thought to help workers to solve problems. Few studies have examined this assumption. We analyzed 80 qualitative diary entries (N=29) and interviews (N=37) concerned with the in-role requirements of medical technology designers in the UK for problem solving. Four themes linked to using the resources of job control and social support for problem solving emerged. These were: (1) eliciting social support to solve problems; (2) exercising job control to solve problems; (3) co-dependence between eliciting social support and exercising job control to solve problems; and (4) using job resources to regulate affect. The results were largely supportive of the assumptions underpinning resource-based models of job design. They also indicated that the explanatory power of resource-based models of job design may be enhanced by considering interdependencies between various factors: how different job resources are used, workers' motivation to use resources, workers' knowledge of how to use resources and the use of resources from across organizational boundaries. The study provides qualitative support for the assumption that social support and job control are used to cope with demands.     

Decision support systems for production scheduling tasks- Part I of a case study: Analysis and task redesign

The first three steps of a new design method for decision support systems in production scheduling tasks are applied to a large bulk terminal. The operational characteristics of the company largely correspond with those of typical semiprocess industries. The design model used consists of five steps: production analysis, task analysis, task redesign, decision support design and decision support implementation. The results of the application of the design model up to the task redesign step are described.     

Design and implementation methodology based on Petri net formalism of flexible manufacturing systems control

This paper presents an aided design methodology of flexible manufacturing system control with a view to industrial implementation. The approach considered through a modelling phase, the a validation phase by simulation and finally a distributed implementation phase. In the modelling phase, based on the Petri net formalism, we demonstrate the hierarchical aspect which separates the part flow control and the product resource control. In addition, we emphasize generic aspects which allow us to use an object-oriented approach. These aspects and the set of modelled objects are directly used in the simulation and production phases after an automatic translation in an implementation language (ADA in our case). In consequence, the distributed location for those two phases is well facilitated from the viewpoint of the approach used.     

User involvement during information systems development: a comparison of analyst and user perceptions of system acceptance

A sample of 150 users and analysts from multiple organizations and many system projects provided field questionnaire data to test hypotheses about the differences in their perceptions of user involvement (UI) and system acceptance. The Franz and Robey [Franz, C.R., Robey, D., 1986. Organizational context, user involvement, and the usefulness of information systems. Decision Sciences, Vol. 17, No. 3, pp. 329–356.] instrument was used for data collection and factor analyzed, resulting in more focused and specific measures. Analysis of the data showed that users and analysts did not agree on the user's involvement nor did they agree on their perceptions of the acceptability of the system to the user. Relationships of self-ratings of UI with system usage and system acceptance by the user demonstrated high correlations, which were attributed to the narrow focus of the UI and system acceptance measures rather than the original more global measure. Analyst perceptions of UI showed no correlation with a user's perceptions of system acceptance.     

二阶段供应链中提前期压缩的影响与协调

提前期是衡量业务过程绩效一个重要的因素,基于时间竞争的供应链管理战略核心就在于提前期的压缩,提前期压缩是形成供应链战略优势的有力来源.在市场需求预测精度随提前期变化的假设下,采用逻辑证明和数值分析的方法,研究由供应商-零售商构成的两阶段供应链中提前期压缩对供应链及其成员收益的影响以及如何实现供应链的渠道协调.研究结果表明:当供应链的服务水平小于0.5时,提前期的压缩可以获得供应链成员收益的Pareto改进;当供应链的服务水平大于等于0.5,引入线性转移支付补偿机制,可以实现供应链的渠道协调,获得供应链成员收益的Pareto改进.     

A dynamic business modelling approach to design and experiment new business venture strategies

Business Modelling has evolved as a key activity to reflect new business venture strategy by framing the way a firm will operate and how it will function in achieving its goals (e.g., profitability, growth, innovation, social impact). However, scholars and practitioners have criticized the adoption of a too static perspective in the design and use of conventional Business Model representations. Such a static perspective prevents nascent entrepreneurs experimenting with their Business Models and, as a result, identifying the most effective strategies, especially in terms of business sustainability and profitability. In this paper, we argue that combining conventional Business Model schemas with System Dynamics modelling results in a strategy design tool that may overcome several limitations related to a static view of Business Model representation. Mapping the different key elements underlying value creation processes into a system of causal interdependencies – through the use of simulation – allows strategy analysts and entrepreneurs to experiment and learn how the business reacts to strategic and organizational changes in terms of performance, innovation and value creation. As such, Dynamic Business Models provide useful insights to strategy formulation and business venturing by capturing how critical Business Model elements interact to produce enduring competitive advantages over time.     

我国投资者情绪对股票收益影响——基于面板数据的研究

基于基金的资金流量构造投资者情绪指标,应用面板数据模型对我国投资者情绪与股票收益之间的关系展开研究,结果表明情绪对股票收益具有显著影响,其中乐观情绪的影响高于悲观情绪,而极端情绪在我国市场中具有独特的预测能力。利用行为金融学理论建立合理的情绪指标,可以作为预测市场未来波动的可靠指针,为我国证券投资者及监管者提供决策参考依据。     

我国城市人口合理规模的系统预测研究

本文运用系统工程中的可能-满意度法对我国城市的合理人口规模进行了预测研究,建立了包含经济水平、社会生活、资源水平、生态环境和实力需求五大方面、11个条目、2 5个因素和 44个变量的系统模型,并根据不同的情况采用不同的因素并合规则,得出了在一个目标时间点上的城市合理人口规模及其所依赖的条件,最后通过应用实例,验证了本文方法的有效性。