江苏太仓市低人口生育率原因剖析

江苏太仓持续降低的人口生育率引起人口学界越来越多学者的关注。该地区低人口生育率并不是人口生育过程中的波动造成的,而是呈现出比较稳定的逐年下降的趋势。本文通过历史数据剖析了该地区低人口生育率的成因,并依据在该市的实地调研数据,剖析太仓市妇女二胎生育意愿,预测未来太仓未来人口生育率的变动。     

Factors Affecting Birth Rates Among Black Women 20--24 Years of Age: A Trend Analysis (January 1972--March 1992)

This research provides a multivariate explanation of monthly (N = 243) birth rate variation for African-American women 20--24 years of age using time series analysis. The research explains both seasonal and intermediate variation in these birth rates. The independent variables were selected for their relationship to: economic understandings of fertility; developing understandings of the relationship of photoperiod to reproductive functioning; routine activity theory; and the relationship of birth rates to quality of life perspectives. The findings of this research are interpreted with respect to important developments and understandings in the quality of life literature. Concepts of 'compensatory validation' and 'contextual compatibility' are derived from quality of life understandings and Rainwater's (1974) concept of 'validating activities'. The previously identified importance of domains of intimacy, sexual activity and family life (Cummins, 1996; Alfonso et al., 1996) are related to empirical findings concerning the conception of children and incorporated into these theoretical concepts. Nine explanatory variables were selected. Theoretical, research and policy implications are summarized.     

新疆人口出生率的差异及其变动特征解析

新疆维吾尔自治区由于特殊的地理位置造成地区间、城乡间经济发展水平参差不齐,复杂的民族成分也使得各民族间的生育观念反差很大,这必然导致地区间、城乡间、民族间、季节间的出生率存在差异。本文汇总了新疆历年来人口出生率的数据,详细分析了出生率的变动特征和不同民族、城乡、地区、季节间出生率的历史变动规律。     

出生人口性别比周期性波动研究——兼论中国出生人口性别比的变化趋势

在观察数据基础上,描述出生人口性别比周期性波动现象,并对其内在机理做出解释。研究发现,出生人口性别比的周期性波动是一个普遍规律,其波动周期与生育间隔相关。正常情况下,周期成分对出生人口性别比的变化影响较小并且稳定。中国出生人口性别比的周期成分明显大于其他国家,这与中国强烈的性别偏好有关。周期成分不是影响中国出生人口性别比的主要因素,性别选择行为是出生人口性别比失衡的主要原因。在实际工作中应该尊重出生人口性别比周期性波动的客观规律,关注出生人口性别比的中长期变化趋势。中国出生人口性别比的"拐点"已经出现,在继续加强综合治理工作的条件下,出生人口性别比将进入下降过程。     

Women’s and men’s negative experience of child birth—A cross-sectional survey

Background

A negative birth experience may influence both women and men and can limit their process of becoming a parent.

How obstetricians and pregnant women decide mode of birth in light of a recent regulation in Brazil

Background

In Brazil, 88% of births among women with private insurance are caesarean sections, even though a caesarean rate above 15% is associated with greater maternal and child morbidity and mortality. Aiming to reduce unnecessary caesarean sections in the private sector, in July 2015 the Brazilian government enacted Resolução Normativa 368, a regulation requiring the use of partograms, pre-natal cards to document pregnancies, and consent forms for elective caesareans, and recommending that obstetricians provide women with an informational letter about birth.

我国出生人口素质偏低对发展的影响及其对策建议

中国是世界第一人口大国,也是出生缺陷高发国家。在庞大的人口数量压力还未减轻的同时,又面临着出生人口素质偏低的客观现实,严重制约了我国整体人口素质的提高。本文分析了我国出生人口素质偏低的原因,重点探讨了出生人口素质偏低对社会经济、家庭和个体发展的影响,在其基础上提出了有针对性的对策措施。     

Not addressing the root cause: An analysis of submissions made to the South Australian Government on a Proposal to Protect Midwifery Practice

BackgroundReports of unregulated birth workers attending birth at home, with no registered midwife in attendance (freebirth), have become more frequent in Australia in recent years. A Coronial Inquiry (2012) into the deaths of three babies born at home in South Australia resulted in a call for legislation to restrict the practice of midwifery to registered midwives. A Proposal to Protect Midwifery Practice in South Australia was issued as a consultation paper in January 2013.AimTo report the views of those making a submission to the Proposal to Protect Midwifery Practice in South Australia.MethodsThirty submissions to the South Australian Government were downloaded, read and thematically analysed.FindingsTwenty-five (81%) submissions supported the legislation, 5 (16%) opposed it and 2 (6%) were neither for nor against. Support for the proposed legislation was strong, however the underlying root causes that have led to the rise of UBWs attending homebirth in Australia were not addressed. Recommendations called for all stakeholders to work with women to develop a better framework of care that respected and met their needs and choices whilst safeguarding maternal and neonatal health.ConclusionsThe Proposal to Protect Midwifery Practice may promote greater protection of midwifery practice however, Private Indemnity Insurance (PII), collaborative agreements and power struggles associated with the medical domination of childbirth continue to marginalise homebirth and prevent women from accessing the care they want and need. These unresolved issues represent the root causes for UBWs attending homebirth; hence the proposal is only a partial solution.     

Unilateral collaboration: The practices and understandings of traditional birth attendants in southeastern Nigeria

Background

Despite the promotion of hospital-based maternity care as the safest option, for less developed countries, many women particularly those in the rural areas continue to patronise indigenous midwives or traditional birth attendants. Little is known about traditional birth attendants’ perspectives regarding their pregnancy and birth practices.

出生性别比失衡与社会政策的柔性调节

出生人口性别比失衡问题日趋严重．不进行治理将带来严重的社会后果。目前采取的一些治理人口出生性别比的措施。如加强宣传教育、加强计划生育管理等。这些手段在一定程度上能对人们的生育观念和行为产生改观,但要实现全社会出生性别比的正常化需从根本上改变人们的生育意愿．放弃男孩为首选的生育偏好。这种观念的转变和形成应从社会政策入手和进行调节。根据个体生命周期中不同的个体和社会需求．依靠教育政策、生育政策、社会保障制度、就业政策及退休政策等具体的社会政策对女性和独女户家庭进行关爱和倾斜．通过利益导向创设出生女有福气的生育观和“关爱女孩、尊重女性”的性别价值现。在实施社会政策时,应发挥各项社会政策的灵活性;同时各项社会政策之间应该具有联动性和协调性。此即是社会政策的柔性调节。     

Distribution of Closed Birth Intervals in a Heterogeneous Population

The probability distribution of parity-specific closed birth intervals in a heterogeneous population of women is obtained from Biswas' (1980) concept of gradually decreasing fecundabilities. The distribution of parity-specific last closed birth intervals and its moments of various orders are derived for a heterogeneous female population. Simulations are used to compare with models for a homogeneous female population with constant fecundability. The consideration of heterogeneity allows a better fit for empirical closed birth intervals.     

First-time mothers’ birth beliefs,preferences, and actual birth: A longitudinal observational study

Problem

Birth preferences, such as mode and place of birth and other birth options, have important individual and societal implications, yet few studies have investigated the mechanism which predicts a wide range of childbirth options simultaneously.

浙江临安市生育文化变迁的调查与研究--关于浙江省临安市5561对双农独女户的调查与分析

本文通过走访、座谈和问卷调查等方式对临安市的生育文化变迁作了深入的研究。首先对临安生育文化变迁的现象进行了描述,然后,从经济、文化、社会等多角度对临安生育文化变迁的原因进行了宏观和微观的分析;最后,我们从社会保障、独生子女优惠措施的落实、计划生育工作等方面对临安生育文化建设提出了一些建议。     

礼仪习俗中的性别规范

民俗中的出生仪礼、成年仪礼、婚礼和葬礼中的性别偏好 ,反映了当地居民所认同、所遵守的行为规范 ,代表了基础生活文化的世界观。这些性别选择规范并不是明白的诉诸于语言、文字 ,而是通过礼仪中的程序、禁忌等隐讳间接地表示出来 ,以约束人们的行为。湖北各地区礼仪民俗的不同 ,就暗含了这种性别规范的特点 ,对人们的生育行为发挥了相当大的约束作用     

农村生育行为的经济学解析

生育行为是一种具有较强外部性的行为。传统的社会主义计划经济体制下的分配、劳动就业等制度安排,使家庭生育行为的成本和收益强烈扭曲,客观上成为多生多育行为的制度激励。社会主义市场经济体制的建立和完善,有效地破解了生育行为外部性内在化的难题,从制度层面上约束了人们多生多育的意愿,是实现个人理性与集体理性一致的制度保证。     

Mrs Stone and Dr Smellie: British eighteenth-century birth attendance and long-run levels and trends in maternal mortality discussed in a north European context

This is a book review turned research paper. The aim is to estimate the differences in the maternal mortality rate (MMR) between untrained midwives, expert midwives, and the famous obstetrician Dr Smellie in eighteenth-century Britain. The paper shows that the birth attendance practices of the expert midwife Mrs Stone and of Dr Smellie were very similar, though Stone used her hands whereas Smellie used forceps. Both applied the same invasive techniques to successfully deliver women with similar fatal complications, techniques that untrained midwives and most surgeons of the time could not perform. However, the same procedures, if used for normal births, would have increased the MMR. So, the key to the low MMR of both was that they kept interventions away from the majority of births that were normal. The paper quantifies the likely MMR for a ‘Stone and Smellie style’ birth attendance and concludes that the wider dissemination of their techniques can explain the decline in the British MMR.     

我国五个民族自治区经济发展和人口变动研究

改革开放以来,内蒙古、广西、西藏、宁夏和新疆等5个民族自治区的经济社会都得到了有史以来的最快发展。但是,5个民族地区因历史和自然条件的差异导致发展的进程有所不同,其中内蒙古基础最好、发展最快,广西次之,西藏、宁夏和新疆等3个自治区的发展速度相对较慢。5个民族地区的经济和人口变动显示出3个不同队列特征,反映了决定经济社会发展的主导因素是那些影响国家和民族现代工业化进程的社会历史基础及自然地理等经济发展条件,而不是民族和人口因素。5个民族自治区的人口变动状况都直接反映了各个民族地区经济因素的作用结果,而生育政策对人口过程却没有显示出预期应有的关联性。     

New evidence about effects of reproductive variables on child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa

There is still considerable uncertainty about how reproductive factors affect child mortality. This study, based on Demographic and Health Survey data from 28 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, shows that mortality is highest for firstborn children with very young mothers. Other children with young mothers, or of high birth order, also experience high mortality. Net of maternal age and birth order, a short preceding birth interval is associated with above average mortality. These patterns change, however, if time-invariant unobserved mother-level characteristics of importance for both mortality and fertility are controlled for in a multilevel–multiprocess model. Most importantly, there are smaller advantages associated with longer birth intervals and being older at first birth. The implications of alternative reproductive ‘strategies’ are discussed, taking into account that if the mother is older at birth, the child will also be born in a later calendar year, when mortality may be lower.     

南京市青年生育意愿调查分析

本文基于问卷调查资料,对南京市青年的理想子女数、性别偏好和预期生育年龄进行了定量分析,并对不同特征人群的生育意愿进行对比研究。结果表明,南京市青年多数不存在明显的生育性别偏好,少生晚生已成为其自觉自愿的选择。     

出生性别比升高的分因素贡献率

文章根据2005年1%人口抽样调查数据,对比2000年人口普查数据,利用经济学中的贡献率概念,给出分因素出生人口性别比升高的贡献率计算方法,比较在全国出生性别比升高中各省的贡献及在各省出生性别比升高中分城乡及分孩次的贡献程度,为做好综合治理出生性别比工作提出新的观点和建议。