Image Myths in the 2004 Ukrainian Presidential Election Campaign

This paper discusses the phenomenon of inculcating myths into the electorate’s consciousness and analyzes the 2004 presidential campaign in Ukraine in order to conclude whether the classification of electoral myths proposed by American political scientists D. Nimmo and J. Combs, and broadened by K. S. Jonson-Cartee and G. A. Copeland, can be applied for studying political mythology in post-Soviet countries. The analysis of television political advertisements on the main state Ukrainian channel, which were broadcast during free TV time provided by the Central Election Commission, makes it possible to conclude that some of the myths described by American scientists were used in Ukraine in their original version, others were adapted to Ukrainian realities, and only elements of some were found in candidates’ ads. Close study of TV political commercials shows that some of the candidates (mainly representatives of financial-industrial and business circles) based their campaigns on a single myth, while the majority preferred to influence voters using a “myth mosaic.”     

Breaking Through the Information Blockade: Election and Revolution in Ukraine 2004

The mass media are an important part of modern elections and revolutions. This was certainly the case in Ukraine in 2004 when a key Presidential election erupted into the Orange Revolution and resulted in a change in the country’s ruling political elite. This paper looks at the impact of the mass media on political events in Ukraine during the 2004 presidential election campaign, and suggests that television in particular played a central role in the events which led to the Orange Revolution and its aftermath. It looks at how both the establishment and the opposition used the media to try and achieve their political goals, whether they were successful, and what the implications are.     

The Accuracy of the National Preelection Polls in the 2004 Presidential Election

The 2004 presidential election campaign provided a venue fora wide variety of polling, and it was not without its controversies.In the end, the final estimates of the preelection polls, thebread and butter of the polling industry, were very good atsuggesting it would be a close race, with Bush the likely winner.In historical perspective, the overall performance was aboveaverage for the period since 1956. Issues raised in the medialeading up to the end of the campaign and the final estimates,however, created some controversy, especially about the likelyvoter methodology used by different organizations. There werealso some anomalies at the end of the campaign as some firmsand collaborators ended up producing different estimates ofthe outcome depending on likely voter definitions or the modeof data collection.     

Pollsters Under Attack: 2004 Election Incivility and Its Consequences

The 2004 election was remarkable for a number of reasons, includingthe harsh, personal attacks from all parts of the politicalspectrum on a number of media pollsters. The idea of "killingthe messenger" has been around long enough for the phenomenonto have its own name, but it appears to have intensified muchmore than in the past. The article details the experiences oftwo polls and their pollsters, one national and one statewide.These attacks are part of a growing practice of trying to mitigateperceived damage by any message in the political marketplace.The article suggests that while there are positive effects fromthese developments, including heightened awareness among votersof polling methods, negative effects can damage the credibilityof specific polls and their sponsors, as well as the professionin general, including market and other public opinion research.The article ends with a call for researchers to be more openwith their methods and measures, and to strongly defend properlydone research against critics; for journalists to be more discerningin evaluating poll criticisms before publishing them; and forprofessional organizations to help the public better understandpolling, market research, and other public opinion researchand their benefits to society.     

The Impact of Cell Phone Noncoverage Bias on Polling in the 2004 Presidential Election

Despite concerns that the accuracy of preelection telephonepolls would be harmed by the omission of voters who could bereached only by cell phone, most national polls performed wellin predicting President George W. Bush’s reelection in2004, and state polls were generally accurate as well. The nationalexit poll conducted by the National Election Pool found that7 percent of Election Day voters had cell phone service butno land line; younger voters were far more likely to be cell-only:19 percent among those age 18–24 and 20 percent amongthose age 25–29. Within these two youngest age cohorts,cell-only voters were significantly more likely to be singleand childless. While cell-only voters were more supportive ofJohn Kerry than voters overall, they were similar to other voterswithin their own age cohort. Because of this, preelection telephonesurveys that weighted their data appropriately by age were notsignificantly biased by the absence of the cell-only voters.     

Classifying Undecided Voters in Pre-Election Polls

The treatment of "don't know", "no opinion," or other nsonsubstantiveresponses is a problem in many consumer research surveys. Thispaper looks at the problem in the context of 1980 presidentialelection opinion polls. During the campaign, a relatively largeproportion of those interviewed said that they were undecidedas to whom they planned to vote for. Discriminant analysis isused to allocate undecided voters to candidates. The methodis validated by a postelection follow-up survey.     

Likely (and Unlikely) Voters and the Assessment of Campaign Dynamics

Only in recent years has the "likely voter" technology beenextended to polls well in advance of an election. In the caseof the 2000 U.S. presidential election, CNN/USA Today/Galluptracking polls indicated considerable fluctuations in likelyvoter preferences, greater than among the larger pool of registeredvoters surveyed. This article explores how Gallup’s likelyvoter model exaggerates the reported volatility of voter preferencesduring the campaign. Much of the reported variation in candidatepreference reported by Gallup in that election is not due toactual voter shifts in preference but rather to changes in thecomposition of Gallup’s likely voter pool. The findingshighlight dangers of relying on samples of likely voters whenpolling well before Election Day.     

From Agenda Setting to Refusal Setting: Survey Nonresponse as a Function of Media Coverage Across the 2004 Election Cycle

Past research suggests that there is a relationship betweensurvey response and topic salience, namely that individualsresponding to a survey are likely to find the survey topic moresalient than nonrespondents do. For election surveys, nonresponseresulting from a lack of salience can influence findings becauserespondents may be more interested in politics than nonrespondents.The agenda-setting model suggests that media coverage shouldheighten salience. Thus, as media coverage of political campaignsincreases over the course of an election, refusals to a politicalsurvey should decline. Using data from the National AnnenbergElection Survey (NAES), which was conducted nearly continuouslyin 2004, this study investigates the issue of nonresponse ina random digit dial telephone survey across the election cycleby examining daily changes in the refusal rates using time-seriesanalysis. Content analyses of the frequencies of presidentialcampaign stories mentioned in the New York Times and three networknews broadcasts were matched against a time series from theNAES to demonstrate that increases in media coverage of theelection were negatively related to the survey refusal rate. Received for publication January 15, 2005. Revision received March 18, 2007. Accepted for publication May 14, 2007.     

哈马斯胜选与中东和平进程

哈马斯胜选既出人意料,又在情理之中;美以反应强烈,多方打压;国际舆论发生有利于哈马斯的变化;哈马斯领导的政府面临许多难题,政策有待进一步调整;中东和平进程不容乐观.     

伊拉克大选及其影响

伊拉克独立选举委员会2月13日宣布,什叶派政党联盟伊拉克团结联盟在1月30日举行的大选中共获407.5万张选票,支持率为48%,得票率稳居第一.     

The Language of the Presidential Election Campaign in Ukraine

The objective of the article is to trace and analyze Ukrainian language use in the recent presidential election campaign, paying particular attention to lexical innovations, neologisms, and satirical allusions. These changes are presented as the continuation of a steady process of democratization or liberalization of the Ukrainian language, a phenomenon some researchers previously attributed only to Russian. The language practices of the "Kuchma-Yanukovych regime" is presented and analyzed. The view of Yushchenko by his supporters as the narodnyi kandydat/prezydent (the people’s candidate/President) finds its antipode in political neologisms coined by Yanukovych’s camp (e.g., nashysty/nashysts’kyi), which were designed to attribute fascist tendencies to Yushchenko’s bloc, Nasha Ukraina ’Our Ukraine’. The egg farce during the campaign showed the vulnerability of Yanukovych’s camp to satire.     

Certain Problems in Election Survey Methodology

This article describes some solutions to common problems inpre-election surveys drawing upon Gallup Poll experience. Ittouches upon problems in sampling, estimation, response validity,the undecided, measuring likelihood to vote, and measuring latetrends in voter preference. In conclusion it cites demonstrablegains in accuracy that have followed application of the solutionsdescribed.Paul Perry is Vice Chairman, The Gallup Organization,Inc.     

Election 1994: Legitimation and multiple identities in the south African media

The 1994 election was a turning point in South African political discourse concerning identity politics and an important period for research on legitimation processes and political discourse. Until the election, the racial and ethnic conflicts were the main issue in political discourse, causing violent riots and tension. But as the new political order was envisaged and the election was confirmed, the need for legitimation of collective identities and identity politics changed. In the political discourse leading up to the 1994 election, issues and conflicts on race and collective identity were silenced by media, thereby contributing to a kind of collective amnesia to reconcile the political conflicts of the past. Both the African National Congress (ANC) and the National Party (NP) used evaluative campaign research to develop their main strategies. While the ANC tried to downplay the role of cultural diversity in South Africa, the NP found it effective to stress minority rights and defence for ethnicity in its communication campaigns. Other smaller parties also chose this strategy. Since the 1994 election, a rhetoric of unity across multicultural cleavages has emerged.     

Myth and Reality: The ERA and the Gender Gap in the 1980 Election

Attitudes toward the Equal Rights Amendment were not an importantfactor in the emergence of the "gender gap" in the 1980 presidentialelection. Conclusions to the contrary by news analysts, feministpolitical activists, and political scientists are based on acombination of the power of expectation, faulty analysis, andrandom bias in the most frequently used survey in politicalscience. The data analyzed herein were collected by the New York Timesand CBS News and processed by the New York Times and CBS Newsunder a grant from the Russell Sage Foundation; by Warren E.Miller and the National Election Studies of the Center for PoliticalStudies at the University of Michigan; and by the National OpinionResearch Center of the University of Chicago. The data wereprovided through the Interuniversity Consortium for Politicaland Social Research of the University of Michigan. The New YorkTimes, CBS News, the CPS, NORC, and the ICPSR bear no responsibilityfor the analysis and interpretations presented here.     

Out of Step? Voters and Social Issues in U.S. Presidential Elections

Recent political commentary has argued that the Republican Party is “out of step” with voters on social issues, costing Republicans the 2012 presidential election. This dramatic claim is deserving of scrutiny in its own right and also for the way it offers new perspective on long‐standing controversies concerning the role of social issues in U.S. national elections. We present results that seek to advance established scholarship on electoral politics as well as journalistic claims concerning the rising importance of social issues for elections. Using data from the American National Election Study, we find that social issues mattered to voters in presidential elections from 1992 through 2012. The influence of social issues on voter choice rivals those of attitudes toward defense spending and government provision. We find further evidence that liberalizing trends in social issue opinion consistently benefited Democratic candidates in presidential elections. We consider the relevance of these results for scholarship on voter choice and elections, noting further implications for commentary on the 2012 presidential election.     

Preface: Foresight in 2020: Race and Gender in the Upcoming Election

This essay introduces contributions to a special issue of Sociological Forum titled “Foresight in 2020: Race and Gender in the Upcoming Election.” All articles in the issue can be accessed at the journal’s website, https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/15737861 . They will first appear under the “Early View” tab, and later in volume 35, supplement I.     

Election Systems and the Representation of Black Women in American State Legislatures

Both blacks and women are under-represented in American elected offices. At the local and state legislative levels, however, the under-representation of blacks is almost entirely due to the under-representation of black women. Black men have achieved or exceed parity between their population proportions and their proportions among elected officials; therefore, the under-representation of blacks and women are one and the same. Women are more likely to be elected in multi-member districts than in single-member district systems. Black women, in particular, are more likely to come from multi-member district systems whether in overwhelmingly white or black majority constituencies. Redistricting to multi-member districts with black majority and overwhelmingly white constitencies, then, could aid in the election of more black women without hurting black representation overall.     

Judgments of Equity and Vote in a Presidential Election

Abstract

This paper reviews the studies of community satisfaction in “new towns” in Britain, Scandinavia, and the United States. In general, residents of the new towns respond positively to questions about their living conditions, although many of the studies reported have obvious methodological flaws. Research projects recently started in this country and in Scandinavia are designed to rectify these defects and make possible a more definitive answer to the question that forms the title of this paper.     

中国城市的社会阶层与基层人大选举

与强调用民主价值观、政治效能感解释中国基民人大选举中人们投票行为的思路不同,作者将阶层政治论的基本逻辑用于解释投票行为。该理论的理性选择解释把阶层利益作为核心阐明变量,而阶层政治的社会心理解释则强调阶层认同的不可或缺性。运用逻辑斯蒂回归及检验模型间系数差异的自助法对CGSS2006数据的分析结果,支持了基于这两种解释的研究假设。公职新中产、市场新中产、小业主与自雇者均比工人更有可能参加投票;而这又由其收入更高、更认同中产阶层来阐明;收入越高越认同中产阶层;收入越高、越认同中产阶层就越有可能参加投票。归纳这些研究发现,并进一步整合理性选择与社会心理解释,作者认为阶层利益不但是联系阶层地位与投票行为的机制,还通过阶层认同阐明阶层地位与投票行为间的因果关联;阶层政治论是分析当前中国民众政治参与的一种有效理论工具。