限额以下批发零售贸易业、餐饮业抽样调查方法及相关问题

 批发零售贸易业与餐饮业是国内经济的重要组成部分。我国目前对这两个行业的统计调查采用全面调查与抽样调查相结合的方法，即对限额以上的经营单位采用报表制度，而对限额以下的单位（包括个体经营单位）采用抽样法调查。限额以下批发零售贸易业、餐饮业抽样调查的目的是运用抽样调查方法，系统地调查和整理限额以下批发零售业、贸易业有关资料，为进行市场管理和宏观调控以及国民经济核算提供准确、可靠的统计数据。为进一步提高我国贸易统计抽样调查工作水平，规范和统一全国贸易统计抽样方法，笔者受国家统计局贸易外经司的委托，对此项抽样调查方案进行了修订。根据部署，新方案将在今明两年内在全国除西藏以外的所有省、直辖市与自治区中实行。本文主要介绍此项抽样调查的主要特点、新方案所用的抽样及估计方法及相关的其它问题，但不详细涉及某些技术细节（例如总体目标量的估计，包括方差估计公式），具体技术细节将在另文中介绍。     

对小型贸易、餐饮业抽样调查有关问题的探索

小型贸易、餐饮业抽样调查工作已在全国全面开展，呼盟统计局按照抽样调查方案的要求，针对社会主义市场经济条件下贸易、餐饮业经济结构和经营方式的变化，积极开展工作，并取得了较好地效果。当然，全盟在试点实践和实施正式抽样调查方案过程中，也遇到了一些新情况、新问题，本着总结经验、改进工作的目的，我们对本地区小型贸易、餐饮业抽样调查工作各阶段应注意加强的有关问题进行了总结．供参考。（一）抽样调查各阶段应抓好的主要工作。1．抽样阶段抽样阶段是在确定好本地区抽样框的前提下．保证抽样调查是否有代表性的工作阶段。首…     

小型和个体商业、餐饮业抽样调查怎么搞?

从８０年代开始，政府统计部门一直在尝试对小型和个体商业、餐饮业进行抽样调查。但１９９４年以前，这种尝试多是分散的和自发的。１９９４年，国家统计局统计设计管理司和贸易外经统计司为了规范和统一全国的商业、餐饮业抽样调查，联合制发了“批发零售贸易业、餐饮业...     

推行抽样调查要真抓实干

国家提出了用“三年时间，初步建立适应社会主义市场经济需要的新的国家统计制度”的改革目标，为实施这一目标，今年全省统计局长会议要求各级统计部门发扬勇于开拓，大胆探索的精神，切实把我省的统计制度方法改革推向前进。为此，省局加快规模以下工业、批发零售贸易、餐饮业抽样调查方法的运用，认真总结试点、试行经验，进一步完善了抽样调查方案。在宁波市组织开展以县级为总体的规模以下工业企业和个体工业抽样调查试点工作，该市领导十分重视，精心组织，已在全面实施之中。个体批发零售贸易、餐饮业抽样调查在去年试点的基础上扩大…     

进一步加大统计制度方法改革力度

２０００年是推进广东统计调查方法改革关键性的一年，按照《广东省统计调查方法改革总体方案》要求，统计调查方法改革要取得突破性进展。为此，必须进一步加大统计制度方法改革力度，在以下几方面取得实质性进展： 一、大力推行抽样调查方法。１９９９年广东在农业、规模以下工业和个体工业、限额以下批发零售贸易及餐饮企业，分别实施以省、市、县为总体的ＡＢＣ抽样调查方案，试点已初步成功。今年，要在全面实施的基础上，省、市两级农业、工业以抽样调查代替相关的全面报表。批发零售贸易及餐饮业要全面推行《广东省限额以下批发零售…     

巩固成绩稳步发展：部分市地统计局局长在全省统计工作会议上的发言摘要

适应市场经济推进统计制度方法改革哈尔滨市统计局局长孙贤明：过去的一年，我局按照国家和省的统计改革思路，适应市场经济和满足地方政府需要，积极探索统计制度方法的改革，取得了一些新成效。l广泛实施抽样调查方法；一是开展了规模以下工业企业抽样调查试点工作。二是在总结南岗区、五常市个体商业和餐饮业抽样调查试点工作经验的基础上，在全市进一步加强了个体商业和餐饮业抽样调查。三是改进和完善了粮食产量实割实测抽样调查方法，制定了粮食产量评估实施方案。四是开展个体、私营交通运输业抽样调查。五是开展了农村私营经济固定…     

对《工业统计定期抽样调查试点方案》的评价

随着我国社会主义市场经济条件下工业企业的不断发展变化,研究在工业统计中如何正确地应用抽样调查法,尤其是研究如何设计出一套科学实用的抽样调查方案已成为一个重要课题。国家统计局企业调查总队于１９９６年制定了《工业统计定期抽样调查试点方案》（以下简称：《试...     

要积极稳妥地推进个体贸易餐饮业抽样调查工作

开展个体贸易、餐饮业抽样调查对推进统计改革具有重大意义。各市、县统计局对此要进一步统一思想，提高认识，积极探索，及时总结，真抓实干，务求实效。1．必须深刻认识“扩大试点”的重要意义。个体批零贸易业、餐饮业抽样调查扩大试点工作的开展，不仅有利于搞准个体统计数据，也是贸易统计改革的重要进程，同时还是整个统计调查制度与方法体系改革的重要方面。第一，推行个体批零贸易业、餐饮业抽样调查是深化统计调查方法体系改革的需要。在经济结构日趋复杂和利益主体多元化的格局下，采用传统的统计信息数据全面汇总、逐级上报方法…     

《统计研究》与我国抽样调查理论及实践的发展

在《统计研究》复刊之初,《统计研究》就在1985年分几期连载了现代抽样技术介绍,系统地向我国统计学界介绍了现代抽样调查的理论和方法,为现代抽样调查理论和方法在我国的传播起到了推动作用。随着我国统计学界对现代抽样调查理论与方法的了解和掌握,我国统计学界对抽样调查理论与方法的研究也日趋活跃,而《统计研究》则成了我国抽样调查理论与方法研究成果发表的一个重要阵地。十几年来,围绕着我国抽样调查实践活动中遇到的各种问题,《统计研究》发表了一系列的理论探讨文章。在这些文章中,探讨的主题主要有:(1)多目标抽样的方法和分层技术…     

对小型批发零售贸易企业、餐饮企业抽样调查工作的几点建设

今年，小型批发零售贸易业、餐饮业抽样调查工作正式纳八月报表，它是适应社会主义市场经济需要的一项重大统计改革举措，我们对此项工作提出以下建议。1．开展小型企业抽样调查，进一步划清批发贸易业与零售贸易业的界限，建立一套适合我国国情的批发零售贸易业餐饮业名录库。根据运城地区统计局开展抽样调查以来的工作实践，目前我国商品流通企业的专业化水平较低，相当多企业是批零兼营，批发者搞零售，零售者也有批发，这样一来就给批发统计和零售统计带来很大的困难。对此，我们建议，对全区范围内的小型批发零售贸易业和餐饮业进行一…     

Bayesian estimation of traffic intensity based on queue length in a multi-server M/M/s queue

In this article, we focus on multi-server queueing systems in which inter-arrival and service times are exponentially distributed (Markovian). We use a Bayesian technique, the sampling/importance resampling method (SIR), to estimate the parameters of these queueing systems, making possible the determination of performance measures that are essential to the evaluation of important practical applications such as computer and telecommunication networks, manufacturing and service systems, health care, and other similar real-life problems. Extensive numerical results are presented to demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the technique, as well as some of its limitations.     

Shift Techniques and Canonical Factorizations in the Solution of M/G/1-Type Markov Chains

ABSTRACT

By using properties of canonical factorizations, we prove that under very mild assumptions, the shifted cyclic reduction method (SCR) can be applied for solving QBD problems with no breakdown and that it always converges. For general M/G/1 type Markov chains we prove that SCR always converges if no breakdown is encountered. Numerical experiments showing the acceleration provided by SCR versus cyclic reduction are presented.     

TECHNIQUES OF COVARIANCE STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS1

The paper delineates the scope and important features of covariance structural analysis in which some pattern can be postulated a priori for the covariance matrix. The coverage given also includes a brief review of the published work in this area with illustration of statistical tests based, on principles of maximum likelihood and union-intersection. Few results on the computational ease under the assumption of particular covariance structures are reported. A few unsolved problems in the area of structural analysis are briefly mentioned.     

Some new partial orderings on Sn and Sn×Sn

A new class of partial orderings on S_n, the set of permutations of {1,…,n}, is given. Each of these partial orderings is shown to be a subordering of a recently described partial ordering on S_n (Block, Chhetry, Fang and Sampson (1990)) which is related to Schriever's (1987) more associated ordering on bivariate distributions. Also given is an extension of three known partial orders on S_n to partial orders on S_n×S_n. These extensions facilitate the study of functions from S_n×S_n into , which preser these partial orderings, thereby, providing a methodology for extending the notion of arrangement increasing functions.     

The Very Model of a Minor/Major Change: A Current Look at Serials Cataloging Title Change Rules

Abstract

This article provides serials professionals with explanations and examples of rules for minor and major changes in the 2002 revision of Anglo-American Cataloguing Rules, 2nd ed. (AACR2), as applied to serials. The authors outline minor/major rules and Library of Congress Rule Interpretations (LCRIs) and give examples for each rule. They also discuss initiatives and meetings leading up to these changes and provide key definitions as well as explore various problems with AACR2 and the intended goals for the revision. Additional discussion focuses on the impact of the minor/major changes on areas such as workflow in technical services, shelving, binding, and training.     

Extrapolation designs and Φp-optimum designs for cubic regression on the q-ball

This paper continues earlier work of the authors in carrying out the program discussed in Kiefer (1975), of comparing the performance of designs under various optimality criteria. Designs for extrapolation problems are also obtained. The setting is that in which the controllable variable takes on values in the q-dimensional unit ball, and the regression is cubic. Thus, the ideas of comparison are tested for a model more complex than the quadratic models discussed previously. The E-optimum design performs well in terms of other criteria, as well as for extrapolation to larger balls. A method of simplifying the calculations to obtain approximately optimum designs, is illustrated.     

A critical look at Lo's modified R/S statistic

We report on an empirical investigation of the modified rescaled adjusted range or R/S statistic that was proposed by Lo, 1991. Econometrica 59, 1279–1313, as a test for long-range dependence with good robustness properties under ‘extra’ short-range dependence. In contrast to the classical R/S statistic that uses the standard deviation S to normalize the rescaled range R, Lo's modified R/S-statistic V_q is normalized by a modified standard deviation S_q which takes into account the covariances of the first q lags, so as to discount the influence of the short-range dependence structure that might be present in the data. Depending on the value of the resulting test-statistic V_q, the null hypothesis of no long-range dependence is either rejected or accepted. By performing Monte-Carlo simulations with ‘truly’ long-range- and short-range dependent time series, we study the behavior of V_q, as a function of q, and uncover a number of serious drawbacks to using Lo's method in practice. For example, we show that as the truncation lag q increases, the test statistic V_q has a strong bias toward accepting the null hypothesis (i.e., no long-range dependence), even in ideal situations of ‘purely’ long-range dependent data.     

A Phase I/II adaptive design for heterogeneous groups with application to a stereotactic body radiation therapy trial

Dose‐finding studies that aim to evaluate the safety of single agents are becoming less common, and advances in clinical research have complicated the paradigm of dose finding in oncology. A class of more complex problems, such as targeted agents, combination therapies and stratification of patients by clinical or genetic characteristics, has created the need to adapt early‐phase trial design to the specific type of drug being investigated and the corresponding endpoints. In this article, we describe the implementation of an adaptive design based on a continual reassessment method for heterogeneous groups, modified to coincide with the objectives of a Phase I/II trial of stereotactic body radiation therapy in patients with painful osseous metastatic disease. Operating characteristics of the Institutional Review Board approved design are demonstrated under various possible true scenarios via simulation studies. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hypothesis Testing and Confidence Regions for the Mean Sojourn Time of an M/M/1 Queueing System

This article discusses testing hypotheses and confidence regions with correct levels for the mean sojourn time of an M/M/1 queueing system. The uniformly most powerful unbiased tests for three usual hypothesis testing problems are obtained and the corresponding p values are provided. Based on the duality between hypothesis tests and confidence sets, the uniformly most accurate confidence bounds are derived. A confidence interval with correct level is proposed.     

Estimation of Measures in M/M/1 Queue

Maximum likelihood and uniform minimum variance unbiased estimators of steady-state probability distribution of system size, probability of at least ? customers in the system in steady state, and certain steady-state measures of effectiveness in the M/M/1 queue are obtained/derived based on observations on X, the number of customer arrivals during a service time. The estimators are compared using Asympotic Expected Deficiency (AED) criterion leading to recommendation of uniform minimum variance unbiased estimators over maximum likelihood estimators for some measures.