The Unequal Consequences of Mass Incarceration for Children

A growing literature has documented the mostly deleterious intergenerational consequences of paternal incarceration, but less research has considered heterogeneity in these relationships. In this article, I use data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study (N = 3,065) to estimate the heterogeneous relationship between paternal incarceration and children’s problem behaviors (internalizing behaviors, externalizing behaviors, and early juvenile delinquency) and cognitive skills (reading comprehension, math comprehension, and verbal ability) in middle childhood. Taking into account children’s risk of experiencing paternal incarceration, measured by the social contexts in which children are embedded (e.g., father’s residential status, poverty, neighborhood disadvantage) reveals that the consequences—across all outcomes except early juvenile delinquency—are more deleterious for children with relatively low risks of exposure to paternal incarceration than for children with relatively high risks of exposure to paternal incarceration. These findings suggest that the intergenerational consequences of paternal incarceration are more complicated than documented in previous research and, more generally, suggest that research on family inequality consider both differential selection into treatments and differential responses to treatments.     

The effect of pregnancy intention on child development

In this paper, we use data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to investigate the empirical link between unintended pregnancy and child health and development. An important contribution of our study is the use of information on siblings to control for unmeasured factors that may confound estimates of the effect of pregnancy intentions on infant and child outcomes. Results from our study indicate that unwanted pregnancy is associated with prenatal and postpartum maternal behaviors that adversely affect infant and child health, but that unwanted pregnancy has little association with birth weight and child cognitive outcomes. Estimates of the association between unwanted pregnancy and maternal behaviors were greatly reduced after controls for unmeasured family background were included in the model. Our results also indicate that there are no significant differences in maternal behaviors or child outcomes between mistimed and wanted pregnancies.     

Parental divorce and partnership dissolution in adulthood: Evidence from a British cohort study

From a longitudinal survey of a British cohort born in 1958 this study finds that, by age 33, off-spring of parents who divorced are more likely to have dissolved their first partnerships. This finding persists after taking into account age at first partnership, type of first partnership (marital, pre-marital cohabiting union, and cohabiting union), and indicators of class background and childhood and adolescent school achievement and behaviour problems. Some of these factors are associated with partnership dissolution in their own right, but the association between parental divorce and second generation partnership dissolution is largely independent of them. Demographic factors, including type of and age at first partnership, were important links between parental divorce and partnership dissolution. Moreover, the estimated effects of parental divorce were substantially reduced when the demographic variables were taken into account, suggesting that cohabitation and early partnership may be important pathways through which a parental divorce, or the unmeasured characteristics correlated with it, affect partnership dissolution.     

Gender differences in the link between childhood socioeconomic conditions and heart attack risk in adulthood

A growing body of evidence shows that childhood socioeconomic status (SES) is predictive of disease risk in later life, with those from the most disadvantaged backgrounds more likely to experience poor adult-health outcomes. Most of these studies, however are based on middle-aged male populations and pay insufficient attention to the pathways between childhood risks and specific adult disorders. This article examines gender differences in the link between childhood SES and heart attack risk trajectories and the mechanisms by which early environments affect future disease risk. By using methods that model both latent and path-specific influences, we identify heterogeneity in early life conditions and human, social, and health capital in adulthood that contribute to diverse heart attack risk trajectories between and among men and women as they age into their 60s and 70s. We find that key risk factors for heart attack operate differently for men and women. For men, childhood SES does not differentiate those at low, increasing, and high risk for heart attack. In contrast, women who grew up without a father and/or under adverse economic conditions are the most likely to experience elevated risk for heart attack, even after we adjust for the unequal distribution of working and living conditions, social relationships, access to health care, and adult lifestyle behaviors that influence health outcomes.     

The effect of sexual abstinence on females' educational attainment

A number of studies have shown that teenagers who abstain from sex are more likely to graduate from high school and attend college than their sexually active peers. However, it is unclear whether this association represents a causal relationship or can be explained by unmeasured heterogeneity. We employ a variety of statistical techniques to distinguish between these hypotheses, using data on females from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health. Our results provide evidence that delaying first intercourse leads to an increased likelihood of graduating from high school. This relationship appears to be strongest among respondents in the bottom third of the ability distribution. Controlling for fertility reduces, but does not eliminate, the estimated effect of delaying intercourse.     

Reassessing the link between premarital cohabitation and marital instability

Premarital cohabitation has been found to be positively correlated with the likelihood of marital dissolution in the United States. To reassess this link, I estimate proportional hazard models of marital dissolution for first marriages by using pooled data from the 1988, 1995, and 2002 surveys of the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG). These results suggest that the positive relationship between premarital cohabitation and marital instability has weakened for more recent birth and marriage cohorts. Using multiple marital outcomes for a person to account for one source of unobserved heterogeneity, panel models suggest that cohabitation is not selective of individuals with higher risk of marital dissolution and may be a stabilizing factor for higher-order marriages. Further research with more recent data is needed to assess whether these results are statistical artifacts caused by data weaknesses in the NSFG.     

An Exploratory Study of Trust and Material Hardship in Ghana

We explore associations among interpersonal (thick and thin) and institutional (legislative, executive, and judicial) trust and material hardship outcomes in Ghana. We use data from the 2008 Afrobarometer survey. Material hardship is conceptualized in terms of frequency of going without five basic necessities/consumptive deprivations, each of which a separate outcome (food, water, medical care, cooking fuel, and cash income). Five multinomial logistic regression models are estimated. Models also include relevant socioeconomic and cultural factors. The stepwise forward entry method was used to identify important variables for each model, and common and unique predictors of each outcome are discussed. Results suggest that deprivations are trust-specific in Ghana. Interpersonal and institutional trust types matter differentially (for example, trust in parliament/national assembly is a unique food deprivation predictor; trust in courts is a unique water deprivation predictor; and trust in police is a unique cash income deprivation predictor). Common trust predictors across models are thin trust (trust in other Ghanaians) for predicting food and cooking fuel infrequency outcomes and executive trust for predicting water, medical care, and cash income infrequency outcomes. Some of the non-trust variables, like education and ethnicity, were prominent predictors of deprivation outcomes across all models. This is one of the beginning studies to explore micro-level data in an important area of trust and material hardship in Sub-Saharan Africa. The study also attempts to conceptualize material hardship within the context of a developing country and provides insightful results that could be beneficial to other research investigators and further probed in future studies building on this work. The study draws important implications for intervention policies based on analyses of material hardship composite parts which provide insights with great detail into specific target groups on specific component-outcomes.     

Risk, uncertainty and family formation: The social context of poverty groups

Abstract Despite the assumptions of many demographers that the net returns from children for non-elite groups in underdeveloped areas are likely to be negative, high fertility persists in most of these societies. Both cultural and institutional explanations have been proposed to account for this. We attempt to provide some mediation between these competing models, by introducing the elements of risk and uncertainty as factors likely to induce poverty and lead works to opt for the 'high fertility, low quality' pattern of investment of time and money in family formation. Drawing upon the work of Wharton in subsistence agriculture practices, several alternative decision-making models are proposed to account for both the persistence of high fertility, and the declines that have been registered in selected areas, such as Taiwan and perhaps China. The empirical work of Mueller on Taiwanese expectations of returns on children and the concomitant variation in family-size preferences is consistent with the models proposed. Some implications for uncertainty and risk-reduction strategies in family planning and other social welfare programmes are drawn.     

The labour supply of Indigenous Australian females: the effects of fertility and interactions with the justice system

Indigenous females are among the most disadvantaged groups in Australia; Furthermore outcomes for Indigenous Australians compare unfavourably with those for similar First Nations around the world. There appears to be a demographic transition under way in Indigenous Australia whereby declines in fertility and mortality are likely to lead to an increase in the number of Indigenous people supplying their labour in the near future. This paper examines the determinants of Indigenous female labour force participation with a particular focus on the role of fertility and interaction with the justice system. The analysis controls for the standard determinants of labour supply, but its main contribution is in taking into account the endogeneity of these potential interruptions to labour market participation. These findings are also important because Indigenous Australian females are 22 times more likely to be in prison than other Australian females and hence the analysis has crucial implications for the ability of policy makers to ‘close the gaps’ between Indigenous and other Australians. Once endogeneity of fertility with labour supply is taken into account, there is no significant independent effect on labour force participation and hence policy should focus on the other factors including education and training.     

Migration,Marital Change,and HIV Infection in Malawi

Research on the relationship between migration and HIV infection in sub-Saharan Africa often suggests that migrants are at higher risk of HIV infection because they are more likely to engage in HIV risk behaviors than nonmigrants, and they tend to move to areas with a relatively higher HIV prevalence. Although migration may be a risk factor for HIV infection, I instead focus on the possibility that the HIV positive are more likely to migrate. Using a longitudinal data set of permanent rural residents and migrants from Malawi, I find that migrants originating from rural areas are indeed more likely than nonmigrants to be HIV positive and to have engaged in HIV risk behaviors. The increased HIV risk among migrants may be due to the selection of HIV-positive individuals into migration; I find that HIV-positive individuals are more likely to migrate than those who are HIV negative. The explanation for this phenomenon appears to be marital instability, which occurs more frequently among HIV-positive individuals and leads to migration after marital change.     

Do Measured and Unmeasured Family Factors Bias the Association Between Education and Self-Assessed Health?

The association between educational attainment and self-assessed health is well established but the mechanisms that explain this association are not fully understood yet. It is likely that part of the association is spurious because (genetic and non-genetic) characteristics of a person’s family of origin simultaneously affect one’s educational attainment and one’s adult health. In order to obtain an unbiased estimate of the association between education and health, we have to control for all relevant family factors. In practice, however, it is impossible to measure all relevant family factors. Sibling models are particularly appropriate in this case, because they control for the total impact of family factors, even if not all relevant aspects can be measured. I use data on siblings from a US study (MIDUS) and Dutch study (NKPS) to assess the total family impact on self-assessed health and, more importantly, to assess whether there is a family bias in the association between educational attainment and self-assessed health. The results suggest that there is a substantial family effect; about 20% of the variation in self-assessed health between siblings can be ascribed to (measured and unmeasured) family factors. Measured family factors, such as parental education and father’s occupation, could account only for a small part of the family effect. Furthermore, the results imply that it is unlikely that there is substantial bias due to family effects in the association between education and self-assessed health. This strengthens the conclusions from prior studies on the association between education and self-assessed health.     

Schools,Neighborhoods and Selection: Outcomes Across Metropolitan Los Angeles

What is the relationship between school segregation and neighborhood segregation across school districts in Los Angeles County, and are school district outcomes on reading and mathematics scores related to levels of school segregation across these districts? We compute segregation scores using US tract level data for 2000 and use reading and mathematics scores from California State tests. Data from the Los Angeles family and neighborhood survey are used to track individual residential changes and differences in the associated Woodcock Johnson scores. We show that there is a close link between levels of school segregation and neighborhood segregation and that many suburban school districts are relatively integrated across both neighborhoods and schools. When we examine average school district outcomes on reading and mathematics scores we do not find any relationship with levels of segregation. At the same time there is clear evidence of spatial sorting with poorer and lower scoring children moving into school districts (or zones with poorer achieving schools). The multi-level models of segregation and achievement show that the variance in achievement levels across districts is significantly greater than across schools within districts.     

The rise of divorce and separation in the United States, 1880–1990

I use the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series to assess the potential effects of local labor-market conditions on long-term trends and race differences in marital instability. The rise of female labor-force participation and the increase in nonfarm employment are closely associated with the growth of divorce and separation. Moreover, higher female labor-force participation among black women and lower economic opportunities for black men may account for race differences in marital instability before 1940, and for most of such differences in subsequent years. However, unmeasured intervening cultural factors are probably responsible for at least part of these effects.     

Business Cycles,Medicaid Generosity,and Birth Outcomes

Birth outcomes influence many aspects of later life health and wellbeing, making healthcare access during pregnancy a policy priority. Low-income mothers often depend on Medicaid, for which eligibility is determined by their income relative to state eligibility thresholds. The prevalence of adverse birth outcomes is known to exhibit cyclical variation, due in part to changes in the composition of women giving birth in response to changing economic conditions. However, cyclical variation in adverse birth outcomes also varies with respect to Medicaid eligibility thresholds. Our analysis uses birth-records data for 2000 through 2013, aggregated into 173,936 county-by-quarter observations and linked to county-level unemployment rates and state-level parental Medicaid thresholds. Using fixed-effects negative binomial models, we examine the role of Medicaid generosity in influencing birth outcomes across business cycles. We test for interactions between Medicaid and unemployment, hypothesizing that the negative effects of recessions are worse where Medicaid thresholds are more restrictive. We find that higher Medicaid generosity dampens the negative effects of recessions on birth outcomes. The extent to which Medicaid interacts with unemployment also varies according to the age and race composition of mothers; in particular, Black mothers are both most affected by unemployment and most responsive to Medicaid generosity. Given current concerns about racial gaps in both infant and maternal mortality, our findings suggest that Medicaid may be an important feature of a strategy to close gaps in the prevalence of adverse birth outcomes across racial groups, especially during bust years.     

What is Most Important: Social Factors, Health Selection, and Adolescent Educational Achievement

This paper explores the relative importance of social factors and health measures in predicting educational achievement in early and late adolescence using population-based administrative data. The sample was made up of 41,943 children born in Manitoba, Canada between 1982 and 1989 and remaining in the province until age 18. Multilevel modeling nests each individual (level 1) within a family (level 2) residing within a neighborhood (level 3). Most important in predicting adolescent achievement were a broad socioeconomic status index (and a narrower measure of household income), being on social assistance, mother’s age at first birth, gender, residential mobility, the presence of ADHD/Conduct disorders, and measures of family functioning (child taken into care or offered protection services and family structure history). Family size, birth order, and newborn characteristics (birthweight, APGAR, gestational age) were statistically significant but of little importance in explaining the outcomes. Both examining regression coefficients and systematically omitting variables showed social factors (often emphasized by epidemiologists) to have markedly greater effects than the combination of health measures (often stressed by economists) in predicting achievement. However, mental health in childhood is identified as among the important predictors. Record linkage across population datasets from health, education, and family services ministries allowed: tracking health and educational attainment at different times in a child’s life, following a large number of cases across childhood, considerable sensitivity testing, controlling for unmeasured family and neighborhood effects, generating an extensive list of predictors, estimating effect sizes, and comparing Manitoba results with those of well-known American studies.     

Measuring Overeducation: Incidence,Correlation and Overlaps Across Indicators and Countries

The methodological debate on how to measure overeducation has been present since the introduction of the topic in the academic debate. Nevertheless, there is still no consensus on a preferred indicator. This article aims at contributing to the existing methodological debate providing systematic and cross-country evidence on the variation across overeducation measurements. Using REFLEX/HEGESCO and EULFS datasets, I provide evidence on within and across countries variation on the incidence, correlation and overlaps across the main types of objective, statistical and subjective overeducation indicators. Results suggest that worker’s self-reported indicators better cope with comparative studies, while in single-country studies objective indicators are likely to provide a more in-depth and detailed measurement. The use of statistical indicators is advised in contexts with labour markets that easily adapt to educational and employment changes, especially if these are not affected by credential inflation. However, it is advisable to use more than one indicator whenever data allows it, as different types of overeducation measurements provide different outcomes and results are likely to be complementary rather than excluding information on the overeducation phenomenon. This is especially relevant when overeducation is used as a dependent variable rather than a predictor. An initial review and discussion of the existing types of overeducation measurements and their advantages and drawbacks precedes the empirical evidence.

     

Poverty and Problem Behaviors across the Early Life Course: The Role of Sensitive Period Exposure

Research routinely finds that children exposed to poverty exhibit more problem behaviors than their nonexposed counterparts. This research, however, lacks developmental specificity with regard to timing and the pathways by which poverty exposures manifest across the early life course. I utilized 15 years of prospective data from the Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development to assess how poverty exposures and financial strains at different ages (0–1, 2–5, and 15) were related to problem behaviors during early childhood (ages 2–5), late childhood (ages 5–12), and adolescence (age 15). Results show that poverty exposures during infancy and to a lesser extent early childhood were robust predictors of problem behaviors in early childhood, late childhood, and adolescence because they were linked to more problem behaviors at younger ages, which persisted over time. These associations partially operated through financial strain. Poverty during adolescence was mostly unrelated to problem behaviors during adolescence after taking into account exposures at younger ages. Overall, this study provided initial evidence that poverty exposure during infancy may have lasting implications for problem behaviors across the early life course.     

Is Stepfamily Status Associated With Cohabiting and Married Women’s Fertility Behaviors?

Children from prior relationships potentially complicate fertility decision-making in new cohabitations and marriages. On the one hand, the “value of children” perspective suggests that unions with and without stepchildren have similar—and deliberate—reasons for shared childbearing. On the other hand, multipartnered fertility (MPF) research suggests that childbearing across partnerships is often unintended. Using the 2006–2010 National Survey of Family Growth and event-history models, I examine the role of stepfamily status on cohabiting and married women’s fertility and birth intendedness, with attention to union type and stepfamily configuration. Adjusting for covariates, women in stepfamily unions are more likely to have a first shared birth in a union than women in unions in which neither partner has children from past relationships, but stepfamily births are less likely to be intended than unintended. Further, this association varies by union type: married women have similar birth risks across stepfamily status, but births are less likely to be intended in marital stepfamilies. For cohabitors, women in a stepfamily are more likely to have a birth than women in nonstepfamily unions, with no differences in intendedness. Configuration (whose children and how many) also matters; for instance, women with one child from a past relationship are more likely to have a birth and to have an intended than unintended birth than women with other stepfamily configurations. It appears that children from either partner’s prior relationships influences subsequent fertility decision-making, undermining the utility of the “value of children” perspective for explaining childbearing behaviors in complex families.